DFS/Props Week 12 Discussion

ScopeY

ScopeY

Pretty much a regular
"For those that don't remember, I'll try to get down general matchup information from a dfs/prop perspective as best as I can, but please jump in whether it is to add input, correct a mistake of mine, or if something is unclear. I'm sure all 3 are going to happen.

When reading the summaries I'll typically use great, good, meh, bad, those 4 terms are sectioned between ranked 32nd-25th, 24th-17th, 16th-9th, 8th-1st. Ie. Ekeler has a great RB matchup, because the opposing defense is ranked somewhere between 25th-32nd in DVOA vs the run (something like that).

Edit: I do sort pressure rate/asr, as well as line play/aly in top 1-5,6-10, and 23-27, 28-32, so you may see me say Great/Good, and Meh/Bad, 11-22 are not stated. My ranges (which may adjust) for Great/Good/Ignore/Meh/Bad TT's and O/U's will be this.
>24.5 >50
>23 >46.5
20-23 43-46.
<20 <43
<17 <40"

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As you can see from this, week 11/season numbers;

- WRs were used 70% of the time in the FLEX position, 10% RB, 20% TE --- season total is now 70%/21%/9%, WR/RB/TE.
- RB + Def stack were 20% of the time. --- season total is now 18% of the time.
- At least a QB Team Stack was used 90% of the time --- season total is now 95% of the time.
- QB Game stack was used 0% of the time. --- season total is now 45% of the time.
- QB + WR + RB Stack was never used. --- season total is now 8% of the time.
- DEF was paid up for twice, mid 70%, punted 10%. --- season total is now 23%/36%/41%, high/mid/low pricing on the season.

The cut/cash line for this weeks tourney was 145.72 --- (Wk2 138.30, Wk3 165.18, Wk4 145.84, Wk5 155.38, Wk6 143, Wk7 133.8, Wk8 148.44, Wk9 138.02, Wk10 153.96),

I hope people were able to make some bank with DeVito + Barkley and/or Slayton. Dell was my favorite HOU WR, I really liked Ridley/D. Moore, and even R. Moore. I did mention Aiyuk for tourney plays, as his stats are made for them.... I thought Singletary was obviously still too cheap. My only real miss, and it was a decent one, was Hill, and not having Kittle really. Still I didn't really put together the pieces appropriately.

I had 5 lineups over the cut line, my best was 168.34, As you can see I went with a 3 NYG + 1 WAS, 1 TEN + 1 JAC. Ekeler fumbling at the 2 yard line was a solid 7~ point swing at the least. If I somehow could have went down to singletary to mini stack with mcbride, and then switch Mclaurin to Hill.. it would have been a top 100~ lineup. But he said she said... or shoulda coulda woulda... we are getting closer!

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Also wanted to say thanks to those who stop by, even to those that don't comment... hoping it is furthering your success as well.
 
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Going to approach the Thanksgiving comments/TTRs/etc (aside from pace of play) as if its just the 3 games.

Thursday Thanksgiving Slate

GBP/DET

Packers have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Lions have a good P/RB matchup.
Love has a good pressure rate situation. Dillon has a meh run potential.
Goff has a great pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Montgomery? has a great run potential.
Packers TTR is 4th (meh).
Lions TTR is 2nd (great).
Pace of play is 6th overall. O/U Rank is 2nd (good) among thursday games.

- Injuries - GBP - On D, LB Campbell (77%) is Q, S Savage may be returning. On O, RB Jones is Doubtful. TE's Musgrave/Degaura are Q (yet to practice), WRs Wicks/Reed are Q. RB Wilson is Q.
- DET - Relatively healthy looking back 4+ weeks.

Unless Lock gets the start, Love is the cheapest QB on the slate, and arguably in the 2nd best matchup of the 6, with the better projected script (as they are dogs). Just something to consider. Unfortunately, P. Taylor is not on the list of RBs as he was the PPR machine weeks 2/3/5 without Jones. So we really just have Dillon to look at. In those 3 games, Dillon saw about 2/3rd's of snaps, they were all close contested/neutral games, and averaged 16 opps (0.66 targets/g). Those numbers scare me... and you can look at last week where he had 4 targets, but that was when an in game injury happened to Jones, now that they have a better 3rd down back on the roster (taylor), he really has a low floor, and I think I'd rather get big leverage and fade him in tourneys, as I think most flock here for some salary relief. I know I keep beating a dead horse here, as he hasn't been great, but Watson continues to fight Doubs for most snaps, in his 6 full games, he has the best target share (at just 16.5%), AND the best aDOT (by a lot) at 16.91.... He is my favorite play from this side, as he is now the cheapest he has been all year (an egregious 4.3K), and is just $100 more than Reed now... I think if mass entering, you obviously throw in some reeds/doubs, but my majority is on Watson. I'm ok with musgrave if he suits up, he has an ok targetshare/aDOT of 14.5%/5.86, in games with this WR core strictly because he's cheap enough, but know he does run less routes than most of the other TEs on the board.

In the 2 games since his return. Montgomery saw 38% then 40% of snaps, averaging 12 carries and 1 target. 13 opps/barely 40% of snaps isn't the best for a RB over 6K, but game 1, they may have been bringing him back, but I think it's slightly telling in a negative script last week he saw an increase in snap %... if Lions play with a lead, I wouldn't be shocked to see him get back over that 50% number. Conversely, Gibbs has seen 58/56% of snaps in those 2 games. He's been good on PPR sites, seeing 5.5 targets/g in those 2, but dropped from 19 to 14 opps in those 2 games, and the second was in a positive passing script. While I don't think this is a cause of concern entirely, I see the potential of a red flag, and it'll make me be on the underweight side of him. --- I'll note, I'm not against building a lineup with both of these backs if mass entering either, as they've at least score 16 each in both games. There's now been 4 games with this WR core (sorry not you DPJ). St. Brown leads the way with a massive 32.5% target share, and ok 7.52 aDOT, while seeing RZ targets as well --- nobody has a better floor/ceiling combo on PPR sites. As for the 3 ancillary pieces, all are at or below 3.5K, so lets look at the other numbers. Raymond is out for me.... he has only broke 26% of snaps (36%) once and it was in in Williams 2nd game back, and sees the absolute lowest snap share of the 3... and he has the worst aDOT by a mile too, at 2.42. Jam. Williams has now seen 3 straight games of snap increases, hitting a season high 65% last week. He has just a 9,5% target share, but a massive 18.71 aDOT, and we know he can hit a HR at anytime. I have no issues with this. Reynolds has kind of gotten lost in the sauce, but he does still play 70%+ of snaps, and has a double digit aDOT... his target share is weaker than Williams, and he doesn't run a ton of routes compared to St. Brown.. I think he can be a leverage/pivot off the popular Williams in a lineup or two if mass entering, but I'd leave it at that. Laporta is averaging 82% of snaps, he is second in routes run per dropback among the TEs on the slate, with a decent 6.85 aDOT, and 18.5% target share... I don't mind if you prefer him to Kittle.

WAS/DAL

Commanders have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Cowboys have a great P matchup, and a meh RB matchup.
Howell has a bad pressure rate situation, and bad pass potential.
Dak has a great pass potential.
Commanders TTR is 5th (meh).
Cowboys TTR is 1st (great).
Pace of play is 11th overall. O/U Rank is 1st (good) among thursday games.

- Injuries - WAS - On D, LB Baron (100%) should be returning. DE Obada (30%) is out. On O, RB Gibson is Q.
- DAL - On D, S Kearse (79%) is Q. On O, RB Dowdle is Q, TE Hendershott may be reactivated.

With Gibson out, Br. Robinson played a season high 78% of snaps, and had a massive 26 opp. game with 9 targets... if Gibson is out agian, idc how tough the matchup is... that kind of volume is a must play under 6K. If Gibson is in, I'll take a step a slight step back, and be slightly underweight. If he is fully cleared, he was coming off 3 games of at least 5 targets, and we know the passing volume will be up for this team as big underdogs... I think he is a sneaky tourney play for PPR sites in a couple lineups at 4.5K. In the 8 games with these 3 WRs playing together, McLaurin leads the group with a 21% target sahre, AND 10.66 aDOT... he is not that much more expensive than Dotson --- one reason why I think he is unplayable. The second reason? on the other end of the spectrum, Samuel has a better target share (16% to 15%), with a slightly worse (but neither are good) aDOT of 6.78 to 8,24), they are close to being equals, but samuel comes in at 3.6K (1K cheaper), and will be lower owned. Of the 3 TEs in this range (Ferguson/Thomas/Musgrave), Thomas arguably has the best floor/ceiling combo. While his target share isn't great at 13%, this is coming from the team with the highest passing % in the league, and they're double digit dogs --- do you think that volume decreases? I don't, he also has a decent TE aDOT of 6.27.

Look, obviously Dak has the highest ceiling on the slate at QB. I have no issues going here, I'll have some of him. BUT... they are 12 point faves, the cowboys, despite throwing more passes in their L3, are actually in the bottom 8 in terms of pas play%... and if the defense or RBs get the early TDs/points, I can see him busting, and for tournaments, I get why we would pivot, but let's get into the skill positions. In blow outs and blown outs, Pollard typically gets 2/3rds of snaps, and there is a possibility that his direct backup (who has seen 30%~ of snaps last 4 weeks) may be out. He has the widest range among all backs, and even in last weeks game where they led by 2+ possessions most of the game, he had 5 targets (second time in 3 weeks). If dak fails (or succeeds even) Pollard can still get his. In the 8 games the big 3 WRs played together, lamb, obviously, leads with a 26% target share and a 10.79 aDOT, if you want to play him, do it... Idk roster construction just yet, but I think I prefer St. Brown over Lamb at the top tier price in most lineups, but maybe we can get both in a couple. Looking at Cooks, his playing time really hasn't taken a dip post bye, while his target share is meh at 12.5%, his aDOT is the best on the team at 12.9, so I don't mind taking a shot in tourneys vs this secondary. Why I mentioned the 4 games post-bye, is because Gallup as taken a substantial hit... now some of these games are semi blowouts at somepoint, but even in the close game vs philly, he hit 48% of snaps (at the time this was his lowest snap share of the year --- only to go lower in the next 2). In the mean time, Jalen Tolbert is seeing slightly less snaps, but actually has a bigger target share than him, with a double digit aDOT. I'll probably have no gallup (maybe 1 in a big game stack), but I don't mind dart throwing/salary saving in tolbert in a lineup or 2. Ferguson runs a route at the 4th highest rate among the 6 starting TEs, but he is priced 3rd, and while he plays a good amount, Schoonmaker ate into him a touch last 2 weeks, and Hendershott may be returning.. I think he is the riskiest of the bunch, I want him the least, and his aDOT last 2 weeks was under 4.... I think I'll pass.

SFO/SEA

49ers have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Seahawks have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Purdy has a great pass potential.
Lock? has a meh pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential. Charbonnet has a good run potential.
49ers TTR is 3rd (good).
Seahawks TTR is 6th (last/meh).
Pace of play is 15th (meh). O/U Rank is 3rd.

- Injuries - SFO - On D, S Hufanga (90%+) is out, DE Jackson (38%) is out for 3rd week.
- SEA - On D, CB Bryant (77%) may be returning. On O, RB/WR Walker/Metcalf are Q, so is QB Smith.

If you fade CMC, you might just immediately put the nail in the coffin... after the bye, he has b2b games with 26 opps, averaging a massive 7.5 targets/g, he is practically going into every game with a built in TD too. I'll try to be over 70%+ ownership (maybe even full if roster construction allows for it). Aiyuk/Deebo/Kittle have been fully healthy in just 5 full games this year... Weeks 1/4/5/10/11... in those 5 games (49ers are 5-0 in them), Aiyuk has a really good 25.5% target share to go with a great 16.13 aDOT --- I mentioned this last week too, but those are really good metrics for tourney slate breaking upside. Deebo sees a drop of just 15% target share, and 8.56 aDOT... I think his price isn't far enough gapped from Aiyuk to consider heavily... I may have some, but going to be underweight for sure. I am not paying 3.3K for Jennings and his 4% target share.. there are better punt options. In that 5 game window, Kittle has a good 20.5% target share, with a really good TE aDOT of 8.63, he also runs not only the most routes per dropback of this slate, but is T-1st among all TEs... The only arguement is him or LaPorta? I'm fine with either way you go... maybe in a couple lineups, try to be very different and build it with both of them?

If Walker is out, all systems go for Charbonnet --- see Br. Robinson last week. I know the matchup is much harder, but he played 85% of snaps last week, and saw 21 opps (6 targets), that's a great combo, and a much better option than Dillon. I think the PPR upside from his last 2 games actually is very telling. Seattle is quietly in the top half of the league in terms of pass play %, and they've practically played every game either fully or late into the 4th in a neutral script, outside of 2, NYG/BAL I like it. Metcalf will probably be the lowest owned "elite" WR on this slate. In the 9 games with Lockett, he just beats him in target share (24% to 23%), and a DOT (12.71 to 10.51), I;m not saying Lockett can't be a play, but the price gap isn't big enough for me to take it seriously. 9/10 times I'm going Metcalf. JSN becomes a play only if 1 of these guys miss, his 5.57 aDOT does not warrant consideration otherwise. The Seahawks use 3 TEs, and none get enough targets... I will say, Fant does see the most time, and has the best target share, and his aDOT is okay at 6~....if you really need to punt here, or if Lock starts, I can see the reason to go to him for salary savings. Speaking of the uncertainty of this game... it's a double edged sword. On one hand, it sucks, because we can't confidently pick who we want without concerns/projected usage, but on the other hand, if you are able to do late game swaps, you might be able to get a big leg up. For example.. nobody is going to have Lock in as a starting QB in this slate, if Geno truly is a GTD and he is ruled out 30 minutes to start, maybe you have a lineup with Purdy - Kittle, and Lockett in flex, and by now you know the standings in the tourney, you've hit on some chalk, but missed on something, and you know you can't catch up with Purdy/Kittle because they are going to be heavily owned (aka most lineups that are above you with players remaining are going to most likely have them too) you can then pivot from Purdy - Kittle - Lockett, to something like Lock - Fant - CMC, etc. (other scenarios too, like the drop in purdy to lock gets you metcalf over lockett, or allows you to go to Aiyuk but down to Charb... etc... you get the point.. so be mindful of that!
 
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Friday Day Game/Showdown Slate

MIA/NYJ

Dolphins have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Jets have a good P/RB matchup.
Boyle has a bad pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential.
Pace of play is 7th.

Injuries - MIA - On O, RB Ahmed is out, TE Smythe/RB Achane are Q.
- NYJ - On O, T Beckton is Q --- remember they're already out McGovern/Vera-Tucker/Schweitzer/Brown some more, but all at least a couple weeks.

I think most of the field is going to be dominated by 5-1/4-2 MIA vs NYJ stacks... and probably rightfully so. Hill missed some of the game last week, and played on of his season lows, 59% of snaps... and he still finished with a 10-146-1 statline on 11 targets.. nobody has his floor/ceiling combo. On the year, he has a huge 33% target share, with a 10.68 aDOT... and I think there's atleast 3 games he missed some time due to injury/blowout.. play him with confidence. I have no problems going to Waddle, or trying to get both... as he appears to be fully healthy now, coming off his highest snap count of the year, and still sports a respectable 22.5% target share/10.01 aDOT, if you do go both of these WRs, I think I lean more towards a 4-2 split, as you'll need the jets to at least have a heartbeat in this game. Cracraft is back, claypool may be back, Berrios is back, and they still have the WR3 in Wilson... All but Claypool are similarly priced, and just above J. Wilson (which we will get too)... if doing any onslaught build, I guess I'd try to include 1 as they'll see more playing time if lopsided, but how the f do we pick. I'll likely have less of these guys if Achane is officially out. I say that, because with Ahmed out, it will leave MIA with just Mostert, and Wilson... and Wilson can easily see the most volume he has all year, and not only be safer than these WRs, but arguably have a higehr ceiling too. If Smythe is out again, J. Hill is just $200, and had a 10 yard catch last week on 2/3rds of snaps... we probably need salary relief if trying to jam in Tua/Waddle/Hill/Mostert.

If mass entering and want to have leverage/dart throw, maybe try 4-2 NYJ to MIA stacks. You'll be able to pick your posion (say Mostert/Hill), and get Boyle/Hall/Wilson + someone., but anyways, lets dive into it.

We don't know what this offense will do with Boyle now, but I guess it can't be really worse? Since Halls shackles were broken, he has been a double digit PPR scorer weekly, with 20+ point upside... I think he has great PPR value. Wilson/Lazard have started every game this season, can Boyle replicate the great metrics of Wilson? I'm not sure, but they were with the other top top tier of elite WRs, as he had a 33% target share, with a 10.91 aDOT. That is slate breaking upside. I'll mention that Lazard has a 12.02 aDOT, and a 13% target share, I got a feeling he goes very low owned, but at 4.2K, I think he is a nice way to fit expensive pieces, with having some type of upside in your choice. Ok I did NOT realize Gipson is just $800... I feel like I've been mentioning him for 2/3 weeks, but he is playing a LOT --- hitting 79% last week, he has a really good aDOT of 13.86, if Cobb is inactive again, I'll be firing him up.. maybe he has a connection with boyle already too. Not the biggest fan of Conkin, even in his game vs the chargers, most of his catches/yardage came in the garbage time last drive of the game... and still in the last 4 weeks he has just a 12.5% target sahre, with an ok 6.5 aDOT.... Ruckert even out targeted him last week.
 
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Sunday 1PMs/Main Slate

NOS/ATL

Saints have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Falcons have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Winston? has a great pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential.
Ridder? has a good pressure rate situation, but a bad pass potential. Bi. Robinson has a meh run potential.
Saints TTR is 9th.
Falcons TTR is T-10th.
Pace of play is 1st (good). O/U Rank is 6th (meh).

- Injuries - NOS - On D, CB Lattimore (95%) is Q, but imo Doubtful. On O, no WR Thomas.
- ATL - On D, DE Jarrett (70%+) is out for 3rd week. On O, WR Hollins is Q.

Kamara is to expensive for me. while I think he has PPR safety of course and has a great ceiling... he is somehow the most expensive he's been all year, the return of Jamal Williams PLUS the increase usage of Taysom in the redzone, have both hampered his total opportunities, AND RZ TD equity. Without Thomas last game, Olave has a 22.5% target share with a MASSIVE 20.22 aDOT, That is definitely a combo for slate breaking upside... Ill note, Perry played a lot last week, so I think he can be considered a dart throw, but he only had a 10% target share, and both of those stats were when they played in a game with a big positive passing script. I'm going to pass on him. I did like Shaheed in that he did Olave with a 22.5% target share, I'd rather pivot to him over Perry. I just don't know what to do with Taysom... he is so range-y, and if you have to compare him to others in his price range, which would include Schultz/Kincaid/McBride, I'd think he has a lower floor than tham, and without TDs (which he does have good equity of getting), I'm not sure he has the ceiling they have either, BUT I need to continue on my research of the other guys before making that decision. I don't think I'll play Juwan... but I want to make note, he has seen his snaps rise in 3 straight since returning from a long injury, and he has a good TE aDOT of 8.1... eventually he will have a good game, I need to see other punt ranged TEs metrics, but I think I'll pass for now.

Weeks 1 through 6 with Ridder, Bijan averaged 5.33 targets a game, going under 5 targets just once, he was never priced below 7.2K during that time, and now sits at 6.5K.... I think he has 20+ point upside, which is good enough to at least 3X this salary, I'm fine with considering him in a perceived tough matchup. With Ridder, and INCLUDING that weak empty 1 target game week 1, London has a 21.5% target share, with a 10.43 aDOT --- that is a good combo for a guy at 5K... It only helps Lattimore is most likely to miss, and there's a chance Hollins and has 12% target share miss too, raising the floor of all players slightly. We can't take a lot of falcons, but I want to note that with Ridder, Pitts had a 19% target share, and probably the best TE aDOT over a 3+ (in this case 6) game sample size of 11.37... and he is 1K cheaper than London, those numbers actually look better.

PIT/CIN

Steelers have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Bengals have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Pickett has a bad pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential. Harris? has a great run potential.
Browning has a meh pass potential.
Steelers TTR is T-15th (meh).
Bengals TTR is T-17th (bad).
Pace of play is 10th. O/U Rank is 9th (bad).

- Injuries - PIT - On D, S Neal (66%) is out for 2nd week, I think his replacement S Riley (25%~) is out, LB Alexander (60%+) is out for 2nd week, LB Holcomb (80%~) is out for 3rd week., and S Fitzpartick (100%) is Q to return after missing last 3 weeks.
- CIN - On D, CB Taylor-Britt (90%+) is Q. On O, WR Higgins is Q.

I don't know what's changing with a new coordinator, but I can't justify playing Warren when he is more expensive than Najee, until I see it flip... because currently Najee still out opportunities him, and slightly out snaps him. At 4.9K, I think Harris is viable, but it is a tough sell if looking for just one piece from this offense because.... It is egregious at both (more diontae) big 2 WRs on this team are under 5K. Since his return, Diontae has a 29.5% target share, with a 12.02 aDOT... idk if you know, but that combo is better than Lamb/Hill/Pittman/St. Brown/Cooper/Dell/Moore/Olave/Hopkins (in that same 4/5 game window). I'm leaning to being big time overboard Diontae.. if that's the case, I have to consider some lineups with a pivot to Pickens, especially if he will be popular with most people. His numbers aren't bad either though, 20% target share/better 13.14 aDOT... Friermuth came back, and split time with Washington... he really is cheap, so I get it... and maybe the coordinator focuses him a bit more, but they each had 1 target, and the aDOTs were low... I'm skipping for now

Are we Browning truthers? I'm not sure.. but in the small sample size, Browning was thrown into a scenario where he was in a neutral to positive passing script... he had 16 attempts, and a much better aDOT than Burrows yearlong numbers (10.87 to 6.41), Here was his target dispersion.

6 Irwin (1 negated due to penalty) 37.5%
4 Chase (1 negated due to penalty) 25%
2 Mixon (12.5%)
2 Hudson (12.5%)
1 Jackson (6.25%)
1 Boyd (6.25%)

Assuming Higgins missing again (we should find out today), Irwin is a no brainer at 3.2K, and Boyd is a no brain fade at 4.6K.... Chase is where it is tough. I think for tournaments, there is an argument to be made that nobody will play chase with no burrow now, PLUS he is 8.3K, it is hard to envision him breaking for 25+ points... but you do get big leverage on the field with most thinking this... and if Browning turns out to be serviceable, you just got a big leg up... so I think its worth a shot in a couple of lineups. Also, Browning did go 4 for 40 on the ground, which is obviously valuable. I'll note that Hudson has averaged 5+ targets in the last 3 weeks (not really skipping to much of a beat with Browning either), he is just 2.7K, but the bengals start 3 to 4 TEs a week, and nobody in the 3 games with all 4 active have even hit 40% of snaps.. so a dud is possible.

CAR/TEN

Panthers have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Titans have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Young has a meh pressure rate situation, Chubba? has a bad run potential.
Levis has a good pressure rate situation. Henry? has a great run potential.
Panthers TTR is T-17th (bad).
Titans TTR is 12th.
Pace of play is 16th (meh/last). O/U Rank is 7th (bad).

- Injuries - CAR - On D, LB Gross-Matos/S Chinn are both possibly returning after 4 game hiatus/IR. DE Houston (40%+) is out for 3rd week. On O, TE Hurst is Q, and G Corbett is out
- TEN - On D, S Wallace (85%+) is Q. On O, WR Burks is Q, and T Hubbard is Q.

This game has the worst pace of the slate, and options that don't feel cheap enough... but if going here, I'd use it strictly for one-offs.

Panthers have already failed a ton of times in what looks like a great pass matchup... so will things be different this time? Idk, but I'd rather Pickett with his WR options then Young with his. Look, in the 6 games Thielen/Mingo/Chark started/completed, Thielen has a great 32.5% target share, with a bad 6.49 aDOT.... it kind of always makes him an option in PPR sites, but at 7.3K, even a 8-70 statline doesn't really get you there but a bit more at 10-100-1 does... idk whwere I stand on him, but my lean is to fade unless he really is going to be low owned from the field. Mingo would be my only other consideration/one-off from this side, in the 6 games together, he has a 17% target share, with a 10.52 aDOT, which on the surface, looks really good, and techinically the matchup looks great, at 3.3K, a 10 point game is all you need to payoff, and if he can hit a 30+ TD, he just did it on one play.... Not only do I not want to play a RB vs the Titans, last week was the closest snap these these backs were at since the sanders "benching", and that held true for most of the first too before it wa a blowout, pass. Tremble is practically floor price, and if Hurst is out again, he seems fine as a punt/salary saver, he had a 11.5% target share, with a decent TE aDOT of 6... that's fine.

When you play Carolina, you want to focus on the backfield options. Henry scares the shit out of me, he has only had OVER 17 carries 3 times this year (that sounds unheard of), in 5 of 11 games this year, Spears has out snapped him, he has already had 4 games under 10 PPR points, including his last 2, Now, I HOPE that means he scares the shit out of others, why? Well those 3 times he's carried over 17 times were when the Titans won there only 3 games, his average was over 20 FPs in those 3 games, averaging 26 opps (3 targets)... those numbers are top RB type numbers... while he carries risk, if CAR plays with a lead, he will be a priority for a big chunk of my lineups. Not only is the passing options in a tough spot, looking at a above, you can tell I think the Titans play with a lead/run heavier script, so my expectations for them are suppressed. I'll make 1 note, with Levis, Hopkins has a really good 25.42% target share, and a massive 16.97 aDOT... at 6.1K that's a great combo.. I think I'd only consider though if you think 1) CAR plays with a lead, and 2) Henry will be uber popular (as a pivot off of his failure)

TBB/IND

Bucs have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Colts have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Baker has a good pressure rate situation.
Taylor has a meh run potential.
Bucs TTR is T-10th.
Colts TTR is 5th.
Pace of play is 3rd (good). O/U Rank is T-4th.

- Injuries - TBB - On D, DE Greene (25%), CB Dean (95%+), LB David (100%~) are out. On O, RB White is Q.
- IND - On D, CB Brents (75%+) is out for 4th week. On O, TEs Olgetree/Woods are still out, and C Kelly is out.

I have/had interest in R. White, at 6.1K he is still to cheap, but a mid week injury pop up is concerning. Regardless, the guy has been playing 80%~ of snaps, and outside of week 1, has never seen fewer than 3 targets, he gets a lot of RZ attention, and is on a 3 game scoring streak, he's 3x'd this salary 4 weeks in a row (almost 5), and this is one of his best matchups to date. If he is out, it'll be hard not to click Edmonds at 4.3K, it really is a matter of eating the ownership, and getting different else where, or is there any possible pivot options at that price point? Not sure as of now. In a vacuum, do I like Godwin? Yes, but I think I can only play him if doing a big game stack... the WRs priced around him have better metrics on the surface (his are 21% target share/8.5 aDOT), and then when you compare him to Evans, who is 1.1K more than him, he crushes him in both areas, 25.5% target share/14.41 aDOT...I don't mind Evans of course, but will definitely have little Godwin at best. I'll note Palmer, he is almost floor priced, and plays a lot of snaps since week 3... his target share is 12.5%, with a 12.27 aDOT, those really aren't bad numbers, so as a one-off salary saver/punt option, I think he is viable in a tourney. Feels weird to continue to say, but Otton as well, no TE sees as many snaps as him, he runs a route on 79% of snaps, 3rd best, and has a 13.5% target share/6.74 aDOT... I think he is fine as a cheap option.

JT has seen his snaps rise in every one of his 5 games following his return, hitting a big 88% last week which resulted in a 24 opp game (1 target), the matchup is tough, and I think most people attack this passing offense before going to him. I'm not saying I will have a lot of him, but I think he can totally be in your player pool. Now lets get to the offense... minshew is cheap, and TBB has been attacked through the air so much... this will be popular, but I think I'm going to eat the ownership. I think my way of getting different (and I know I've been chasing this for a few weeks now) is playing pierce over Downs. In the 6 games with Minshew, Downs has a 19% target share, with a meh aDOT of 8.69, and while Pierce keeps getting the emptyless targets, he has a 12% target share, with a big 15.04 aDOT... he HAS to hit a HR soon, while he may not be C. Watson, it is reminiscent of that. Pittman is always viable, he is St. Brown esque, where his aDOT isn't desirable at 7.9, but his target share is a massive 31%. Has undesirable as this TE pool is, last game, there was no Granson/Olgetree, and Alie-Cox/Granson played 58% of snaps. I have no issues in tourneys playing Alie-Cox as an unpopular piece of a bigger game stack, or as a one-off TE punt/salary saver option at the floor price.

NEP/NYG

Patriots have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Giants have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Mac Jones?? has a great pressure rate situation. Barkley has a bad run potential.
DeVito has a meh pressure rate situation, and meh pass potential.
Pats TTR is 14th (meh).
Giants TTR is 20th (bad/last).
Pace of play is 2nd (good). O/U Rank is 10th (bad/last).

- Injuries - NEP - On O, WR Parker is Q.
- NYG - On D, DT Lawrence (73%) is doubtful. On O, T Neal is out, and WR Slayton is doubtful.

I guess? Mac Jones is still the starter, but despite being a super cheap stack in this game that has a great pace, if he fumbles out of the gate at any point, he is liable to be sat again... how can we trust that? If you want to get cute, maybe try it in a lineup, as nobody else will, but I don't think I am. Stevenson is coming off his highest snap count since Week 2, 67%,, giving him a huge 25 opp game (5 targets), no RB with that volume should be under 6K, yet he is.... in the last 5 games he hasn't even had under 4 targets, and Giants are most likely without their run stuffing nose tackle, yes please. If Parker is out again, Juju draws some interest from me, as Reagor was practically benched, and he came out and played 99% of snaps/is floor priced. Even if he 4 for 40 he hits value. I think Douglas is fine at 4.4K, but I'm not going to be playing it much if any. 6 of his 9 targets came on the last 2 drives playing from a must throw situation, 4 of the 6 targets were with Zappe. If Parker is in, I have even less interest in the 2 above. In these last 2 games without Bourne/Parker, Henry/Gesicki are playing 67 to 88% of snaps, seeing a combined 23% targets, while Henry has a 8.18 aDOT, Gesicki a 15 aDOT, both of which are really good for TEs. It sucks that they split time, but if you either wanted to go to Henry for a little bit more reliability at a kind of cheap price, or Gesicki as a pure punt/salary saver play at the floor price (kind of like Alie-Cox) I get it.

Barkley is coming off a game with a 91% snap count, nobody does that anymore unless you are CMC (or R.White/Kyren Williams~), he turned it into 19 opps (5 targets), while it looks like he is at risk of dudding, I think his floor is 15 easy points UNLESS the Giants get blown out, which in sundays matchup, I don't see it happening. I think his ownership will be very low, but I think he can be kept in your player pool. After Slayton came out to end the half, they didn't need to throw much with a lead, but the Giants breakdown was

Shepard 3
Robinson 1
Hyatt 2 (1 negated by penalty)
Hodgins 0

Shepard's 3 targets was 100% of of his targets, with his snaps seeing a season high 47%, I think Slayton's loss was his biggest gain, and you can make an argument for any of them, but I'd rather him, maybe Hyatt, the most. I'll note Bellinger, but in the 3 games without waller he has an 11% target share, and 6.44 aDOT, I don't think I go here, as I probably just punt further down to the guys mentioned prior, but he is played 90%~ of snaps, so I'm fine if you prefer this.

JAC/HOU

Jaguars have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Texans have a bad P/RB matchup.
Lawrence has a good pass potential. Etienne has a meh run potential.
Stroud has a great pressure rate situation. Singletary? has a bad run potential.
Jaguars TTR is 3rd (good).
Texans TTR is 4th (good).
Pace of play is 5th. O/U Rank is T-1st (Good).

- Injuries - JAC - On D, CB Campbell (90%+) is out for 2nd week. On O, WR Z. Jones is Q.
- HOU - On D, S Ward (94%+)/DT Ridgeway (31%) are out for 3rd week, DE Horton (26%) is out. On O, RB Pierce is Q, and WR Brown is out.

If you look at the last 2 weeks, you'll see Etienne with his worst b2b performance, with his lowest snap share of the season... but both of these games were blowouts, and he still saw his 3 target floor (never has been less this year)... if people attack the passing matchup in this game, I think he is a good pivot off of it. In the 4 games with the "big 3" all healthy, Ridley leads the team in both target share (25.5%) and aDOT, 11.31, He'd be the passing option I'd want the most. If this game turns into a shootout, or lawrence is forced to have an elevated pass script, Engram becomes a big option, while I hate his yearly aDOT, 4.35, he has a good 22.5% target share on this team, and he is now the cheapest he has been all year, Houston has been a good matchup for getting TE FPs, he'd be my 2nd passing option.

Sorry, but Stroud looks WAY to expensive for me at 7.7K, he has no rushing upside, and even a 300+ 3td+ game (which he has only done once so far), he is at the 3.5X range... any deviation via a RB rushing TD, defensive TD, FG/low scoring game, and he just screwed you. While I do think this is still Singletarys backfield, if Pierce is active, he is to expensive for me, would pass on both. These 3 WRs (not Brown) have played 4 complete games with eachother, and they all had between 21 and 23.5% target shares, and aDOTs between 10 and 14 --- I think I prefer dell to collins, as he was the aDOT leader, but I think of all 3, Woods is the one I want the most, as he is just 4K, and not much separates the 3 --- even last week he had 8 targets, with a 10 aDOT, 4K is cheap for that. Schultz has a good aDOT for TEs, so if he sees a spike in passing volume he can pay off, but he is by far the most expensive he has ever been, and has had a lot of bad floor games this year, I don't think I want to chase his ownership in what will most likely be the most popular stacked game of the week

4PMs Sunday/Main Slate (Cont.)

CLV/DEN

Browns have a great P/RB matchup.
Broncos have a bad P/RB matchup.
Ford has a good run potential.
R. Wilson has a bad pressure rate situation, and bad pass potential. Jav. Williams has a meh run potential.
Browns TTR is 19th (bad).
Broncos TTR is 13th (meh).
Pace of play is 13th. O/U Rank is 8th (bad).

- Injuries - CLV - On D, CB Ward (83%), S McLeod (49%) are out, CB Mitchell (30%+), is out for 3rd week. S Thornhill (91%)/LB Walker (70%+) are Q. On O, no WR Goodwin is out.
- DEN - On D, S Locke (30%+) is Q.

The pace of this game is slow, the total isn't great, and the defenses are good... so I'd use it strictly for one-off hunting at best.

Ford saw a drop back to under 50% of snaps (hunt at 44%), he has a perceived great matchup, but I think a lot of people go here, and I expect the Broncos to be playing with a lead, having said that, he has shown some floor PPR games, and in both of DTR's starts he averaged 5.5 targets, so I do think he has some safety if you did want to go here. Cooper in both DTR games, has a 20% target share, with a 13.43 aDOT, so I guess at 5.9K I can be convinced, but I won't be playing it, at 3.7K, 15.5% target share, and a 7 aDOT, I think Moore is the better option for one-offs, and a bit of a salary saver that nobody will be playing. What I will be doing if anything, is Njoku... he has one of the better matchups, has a huge 31% target share, despite a 4.41 aDOT... but in PPR formats, and what I think will be a good passing script, I wouldn't be shocked to see 10+ targets.

While the secondary for CLV is kind of banged up, and me thinking one of these WRs can get to 15+, I expect them to be playing with a lead, and I don't want my money on a risky position like this. I'm concerned with Jav. Williams as he has seen his snaps drop in 2 straight games, despite playing in neutral game scripts, he has 20+ opp potential, so below 6K, looks nice, and it's really the only choice I'd have on this side, but I don't feel comfortable clicking it. Pass at TE.

LAR/ARI

Rams have a great P/RB matchup.
Cardinals have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Stafford has a good pressure rate situation, and good pass potential. K. Williams? has a great run potential.
Conner has a good run potential.
Rams TTR is 6th.
Cards TTR is 8th.
Pace of play is 4th. O/U Rank is 3rd.

- Injuries - LAR - On D, S Lake (40%+/100% last week), is out.
- ARI - On D, CB Hamilton (75%+), DE Strong (50%+), LB White (100%), DT Fotu (40%+) are all out. On O, WR Wilson is out.

Williams was a bell cow, and is in a great matchup, but at 6.6K, and McVay (despite me not being shocked if he just flat out lied) has said he will be mindful of his snaps/workload this week. So I don't think I want to pay that premium for this. We have 2 games with the big 3 at WR + Kyren, and in those 2 games Kupp had a massive 38% target share, with an 11.9 aDOT, I'm hoping the ankle injury (that he has moved passed) keeps people from clicking his name, but I'm going to try to get him in. Nacua is priced to closely, and while he said had a massive 33% target share in those games, with a aDOT of 8.94, it is hard clicking him over Kupp. Pass on Higbee, to expensive for a weak aDOT/target share.

In 2 games with Kyler, Conner has averaged 16.5 opps, but just 1.5 targets, don't really like the safety/upside combo. Without M. Wilson last week, Dortch came in and played 75% of snaps, and had a 27.5% target share, with a meh aDOT of 5.63, but at 3.3K, that's huge, and my favorite WR of the 3. I will note, Hollywood has had a huge aDOT with him, 17.56, with a 15% target share, so he has HR hitting upside. McBride seems to cheap, when you see he has a 26.75% target share, with a really good 8.25 TE aDOT. I'll have mostly him/Dortch if game stacking/one-offing.

KCC/LVR

Chiefs have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Raiders have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
O'Connell has a bad pass potential.
Chiefs TTR is T-1st (good).
Raiders TTR is T-15th (meh).
Pace of play is 12th. O/U Rank is T-4th.

- Injuries - KCC - On O, no WRs Hardman/Toney/Bolton.
- LVR - On D, DE Crosy (100%) is doubtful (huge), LB/S Spillane/Epps (100%~ guys) are Q. On O, T Miller is Q.

Mahomes hasn't had that game except once this year, in a division game vs the chargers. He now gets another, where one of the best pass rushers in the league going against him is most likely out, and his WR core is going to be the most concentrated it every has been (with 3 of them out). His price is very expensive, and I can see people not going here, which kind of makes me excited. I'll start with Pacheco, he kind of concerns me, while he is coming off b2b games with his highest snap counts, he only saw 1 target in each, and if they plan on using McKinnon more on 3rd downs, I don't like that floor safety he has lost, passing. If you like Mahomes, and mass entering him, you have to construct at least some lineups with Kelce, but you're going to need a lot of cheapies if going this route. I am all aboard the Justin Watson train, he is coming off b2b games with his highest snap counts (all 4 of these remaining WRs see slight boosts too with Toney now out for first time), and he has a massive 24% target share, with a massive 13.69 aDOT the last 2 weeks... he is FLOOR priced... this makes 0 sense, and I don't even mind locking him in in 80%+ of lineups. I think MVS is the pivot off Watson (or play them both?) if he is going to be uber popular, as he his the secondary HR hitter, just know he has seen his snaps decline in two straight. Rice is to expensive for me, his targets have swelled up, and his aDOT is the worst of the WRs, yet he is the only one not near/at floor price (3K, he is 5.5K).

Jacobs with Antonio Pierce has lost his PPR upside, and it is sad to see, as he is averaging just 1 target a week over the last 3 weeks. While he has workhorse carry potential, he needs 100+ 1+ on the ground to succeed... I think he can do that, so I get it, but I'm not chasing it. Adams has an INSANE 38% target share, and 13.52 aDOT in the L3 with O'connell/Pierce, this holds true even in Week 4 with O'connell, that is WR1 overall metrics and will be my most common bring back.

BUF/PHI

Bills have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Eagles have a meh P/RB matchup.
Allen has a meh pressure rate situation, but a great pass potential.
Hurts has a bad pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential. Swift has a good run potential.
Bills TTR is 7th.
Eagles TTR is T-1st.
Pace of play is 14th (meh). O/U Rank is T-1st (good).

- Injuries - BUF - On D, CB Jackson (100%), S Rapp (30%+) are out.
- PHI - On D, DT Williams (46%) is out, LB Dean (53%) is out for 2nd week. On O, WR Watkins is returning.

I think J. Cooks is an interesting option, out of all the pieces to this offense, I think he goes lowest owned, as it is a RB vs PHI D, but last week he had a 21 opp game (4 targets --- T-most post-week 1), and he did it on just 46% of snaps as the game was a blowout. If this OC is going to feature him more, which last week suggested, he may be too cheap. While Diggs has a good target share of 25.6% in the 4 weeks with 3WR Sets/no Knox, his aDOT has been really bad at 5.88, and those numbers were actually worse last week... this is a smash spot, but I can't pay 8.8K for a guy with this kind of metrics, everyone around him grades out better. Looking at price, I'd rather Shakir>Gab Davis, as the targets/aDOTs are similar, but you're saving 1.7K. I think Kincaid is my 2nd favorite option on this offense, he has now had 4 straight game with double digit FPs, he sees RZ targets, and has had a 25% target share with Knox out.

Swift feels a bit to expensive, I've mentioned in the past, the problems with his TD equity (I think we all know), and he's only 3X'd this salary twice this year... I do like when players are coming off a practice week with an injury, and having no designation come sunday, as it scares people, but not sure I go here. On the year, Aj Brown is arguably the WR1, in competition with Hill, I will never talk anyone off of him... I'll note, in the first game without geodert last week, Smith atually lead with a 38% target share, and a 12 aDOT, and he is 1.9K cheaper, so don't hesitate paying down here if one-offing/builiding multiple entries. Pass at Te.
 
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Sunday Night/Showdown Slate

BAL/LAC

Ravens have a great P/RB matchup.
Chargers have a bad P/RB matchup.
Lamar has a great pass potential. Gus Bus? has a great run potential.
Ekeler has a bad run potential.
Pace of play is 9th.

- Injuries - BAL -
- LAC -

-
 
Monday Night/Showdown Slate

CHI/MIN

Bears have a meh P/RB matchup.
Vikings have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Fields has a meh pressure rate situation, and meh pass potential.
Dobbs has a great pressure rate situation, and pass potential. Mattison? has a bad run potential.
Pace of play is 8th.

- Injuries - CHI - On D, CB Stevenson (85%) is out. On O, T Borom is out, RB Foreman is out.
- MIN - On D, LB Hicks (97%+) is out for 2nd week, DE Lowry (40%) is out. CB Evans (84%+) is Q to return from a 1 game hiatus. On O, most likely still no JJ.

Foreman got hurt after playing 24% of snaps, while Herbert was relatively inefficient on the ground last week, on just 43% of snaps, he hit 19 total opps (3 targets), and actually with Fields, Herbert has seen less than 3 targets just once (2 in week 3), he has a pretty safe floor, with upside potential to consider, and without foreman, you'd expect his snap count to rise closer to his peak pre-injury, 65-75%~ (raising those floors of last week). While Roschon was the more efficient runner last week, he had 0 targets, and aside from week 1, has averaged 1 target/g with Fields. Can he score a TD, and be optimal? Sure, but I'll take a wait and see approach unless we have no salary relief alternatives. Last week Moore had an insane 41% target share, with a monster 15.22 aDOT, that combo is bigger than slate breaking... and if you add weeks 1-5 with fields, it doesn't get that much worse at 26.5%/13.51... he has to be high on the priority list. Mooney is pretty cheap at 4.8K, but I think this is a slate where we want a majority of these big dogs, while I might have a couple of him, I think I'd rather go down and hope for a big shot with St.Brown/T. Scott, In the 3 games with these 4 WRs+Fields, Scott has the big HR aDOT of 25, but St. Brown has been the one with more snaps, I'll have pieces of both. We've seen Kmet be a big boom or bust option with Fields in the past 2 years, so taking a stab in a tourney makes sense, I'll probably be slightly underweight as I may lean towards herbert more at that price, plus I think that will give me some ownership leverage on the field.

Vikings backfield is so confusing. 2 weeks ago, in a game in which they lead comfortably throughout, Mattison/Chandler both had 45/44% of snaps, and Chandler out opportunitied? Mattison 15 to 10, then last week, in a mostly neutral script, Mattison out snapped Chandler 65 to 31%, and Mattison led 20 opps to 14. They've both received RZ looks (even targets) these last 2 weeks, but Chandler is cheaper, and has more explosive plays... I'd rather him over Mattison unless ownership difference is humongous. Addison has been a fine player with Dobbs, but some of his stats can be attributed to Osborn missing 2 of the 3 starts, plus his price is similar to Hockenson, who I'd much rather have (even in last weeks game with all players similar, he had a 24% target share with a great 9.86 te aDOT)... plus I want to play these big guys, so I have to take a step back somewhere and I think it'll be here. Powell has been a short aDOT player, and not somebody I want unless hunting salary relief. Osborn peaks my interest. Last week was a poor performance, but he did have a big 18 aDOT, and played 96% of snaps, the only other punt option I'd debate, and it would be a pivot off of Powell, is Oliver, as he is coming off a 4 target game, playing 46% of snaps.
 
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I had to play Love yards, not a huge fan but 220s seemed low considering all the circumstances and he has been consistently going over this of late. Agree with @ScopeY take on Dillon, I don’t see him keeping this game competitive against a lions d who strong against the run and he not exactly dynamic as a pass catcher. Think it will have to be on Love’s arm, tough for me to roll with any the wr’s cause I have this strange idea Watson best they bunch but he been easily the least effective. Far as pack wr’s go I have small positions on Reed 40+ yards and Doubs to score a td at +210 (just price on the td for a guy who seems to be the preferred td scorer with 4 in last 5 games). I do think lions pass d vulnerable to deep shots and that again makes Watson appealing but I just couldn’t lay money down on him needing more yards than Reed who been far more consistent the past month, the nice thing bout Watson is it only takes 1 w him, if someone was so inclined. For me Love’s total seemed like easily the best of the bunch.


Missed ya’ll the last few weeks, I was insanely sick with a bout of some kinda covid. Had me sucking on a inhaler all month trying to avoid the hospital for real, then this week came the onslaught of puking and being sick for a couple days but once that started my lungs instantly felt better and now I’m like a new man!!! Shit was not fun, I had no interest to cap, bet, talk, those of you who know my wife’s situation and she was having to take care of me which made me feel really shitty!! Anyways I’m all better now and she hanging in as we only 2 weeks away from getting her scan to know how the treatments went. Hope everyone is doing well and Happy thanksgiving!!
 
2daBank said:
I had to play Love yards, not a huge fan but 220s seemed low considering all the circumstances and he has been consistently going over this of late. Agree with @ScopeY take on Dillon, I don’t see him keeping this game competitive against a lions d who strong against the run and he not exactly dynamic as a pass catcher. Think it will have to be on Love’s arm, tough for me to roll with any the wr’s cause I have this strange idea Watson best they bunch but he been easily the least effective. Far as pack wr’s go I have small positions on Reed 40+ yards and Doubs to score a td at +210 (just price on the td for a guy who seems to be the preferred td scorer with 4 in last 5 games). I do think lions pass d vulnerable to deep shots and that again makes Watson appealing but I just couldn’t lay money down on him needing more yards than Reed who been far more consistent the past month, the nice thing bout Watson is it only takes 1 w him, if someone was so inclined. For me Love’s total seemed like easily the best of the bunch.


Missed ya’ll the last few weeks, I was insanely sick with a bout of some kinda covid. Had me sucking on a inhaler all month trying to avoid the hospital for real, then this week came the onslaught of puking and being sick for a couple days but once that started my lungs instantly felt better and now I’m like a new man!!! Shit was not fun, I had no interest to cap, bet, talk, those of you who know my wife’s situation and she was having to take care of me which made me feel really shitty!! Anyways I’m all better now and she hanging in as we only 2 weeks away from getting her scan to know how the treatments went. Hope everyone is doing well and Happy thanksgiving!!
Click to expand...

Sorry to hear that, glad you're feeling better...

Crush it today and happy thanksgiving!
 
I love Robinson over his very low rush total today, along with some alt numbers!!! There is certainly the risk this game gets out of hand and I lose but if Washington has any sense I believe he will get a bunch of work, it be crazy to have Howell come in and just throwing against this d. The numbers don’t mean a ton to me, I think you can def run on Dallas d if you commit to it and don’t fall to far behind. That prob means they have to put points on the board cause the Washington d was horrific before trading away their pass rush! Now they have a awful secondary and can’t rush the qb, bad bad combination which leads to the next 3 bets!!

Dak ov 279.5 pass
Dak ov 1.5 td passes -190
Lamb ov 91.5 rec

Usually don’t like paying that kind of juice on qb td passes but seemed like a no brainer here as Dallas passes to score. Only real concern for me is same as the Robinson play and if it a huge blowout where the defense creates short fields the yardage plays could lose. I have this feeling Washington offense might play well enough to keep this entertaining, if not there always the hope Dallas just decides to put on a show and look great against another bad team after taking foot off gas last week saving themselves for this one!!
 
ScopeY said:
Sorry to hear that, glad you're feeling better...

Crush it today and happy thanksgiving!
Click to expand...

Man, I’m just happy to be here and back to talking w ya’ll. Despite a few times knowing I should prob be in hospital I’m really not sure I realized how sick I was until I actually felt better!! The fact I didn’t have the energy to even cap games shoulda prob been a huge sign, don’t think I’ve ever skipped 2 weeks of football before!! Lol.
 
Took Dorance Armstrong Jr over 0.5 sacks +120 (BM). No secret that Skins O-Line is non existent. Micah obviously the guy, but he has 10 sacks on the year and was lined at -250. Armstrong has 5 on the year including a run of at least half a sack in 4 straight games. Feels like value at +120
 
jdoggoakley said:
Took Dorance Armstrong Jr over 0.5 sacks +120 (BM). No secret that Skins O-Line is non existent. Micah obviously the guy, but he has 10 sacks on the year and was lined at -250. Armstrong has 5 on the year including a run of at least half a sack in 4 straight games. Feels like value at +120
Click to expand...
Bit on Parsons -180 myself o.75
 
2daBank said:
I had to play Love yards, not a huge fan but 220s seemed low considering all the circumstances and he has been consistently going over this of late. Agree with @ScopeY take on Dillon, I don’t see him keeping this game competitive against a lions d who strong against the run and he not exactly dynamic as a pass catcher. Think it will have to be on Love’s arm, tough for me to roll with any the wr’s cause I have this strange idea Watson best they bunch but he been easily the least effective. Far as pack wr’s go I have small positions on Reed 40+ yards and Doubs to score a td at +210 (just price on the td for a guy who seems to be the preferred td scorer with 4 in last 5 games). I do think lions pass d vulnerable to deep shots and that again makes Watson appealing but I just couldn’t lay money down on him needing more yards than Reed who been far more consistent the past month, the nice thing bout Watson is it only takes 1 w him, if someone was so inclined. For me Love’s total seemed like easily the best of the bunch.


Missed ya’ll the last few weeks, I was insanely sick with a bout of some kinda covid. Had me sucking on a inhaler all month trying to avoid the hospital for real, then this week came the onslaught of puking and being sick for a couple days but once that started my lungs instantly felt better and now I’m like a new man!!! Shit was not fun, I had no interest to cap, bet, talk, those of you who know my wife’s situation and she was having to take care of me which made me feel really shitty!! Anyways I’m all better now and she hanging in as we only 2 weeks away from getting her scan to know how the treatments went. Hope everyone is doing well and Happy thanksgiving!!
Click to expand...
Glad you're feeling better bud.

I hope you and the lady enjoy the holiday.
 
Great call on watson @ScopeY, I figured he prob be good just couldn’t stomach the number. Love looks good, didn’t expect it to go like this, annoyed Doubs didn’t catch a td but Reed did, lol.
 
Definitely great details on Watson, I parlayed over 42.5 recieving yards with anytime td, and Love over 199 passing yard. Great payout! Also had 13 picks parlays with Love and Watson props as a foundation on 3 of the Thanksgiving game. 49ers game is left.
 
Flyhighz said:
Definitely great details on Watson, I parlayed over 42.5 recieving yards with anytime td, and Love over 199 passing yard. Great payout! Also had 13 picks parlays with Love and Watson props as a foundation on 3 of the Thanksgiving game. 49ers game is left.
Click to expand...

Nicely done! Hope you get it.

I can still place high in the thanksgiving slate..but the last dak td followed by pick 6 hurt me from a realistic 1st place sweat!

But again, still have hope! Lets get it
 
Flyhighz said:
Can you explain what you mean by aDOT? Not sure if you explained that previously. Thanks
Click to expand...
Average Depth of Target.

So how far, in yards obvi, a player is down the field from line of scrimmage when the ball is thrown... takes all YAC (yards after catch) out of it.

I guy with a double digit aDOT is typcially past the first down marker whenever a ball is thrown at him.

When a guy is at like 2/3, that means he is getting the terrible dink and dunk targets.

Bigger aDOT better chance of bigger plays (air yards goes with this too)
 
ScopeY said:
Nicely done! Hope you get it.

I can still place high in the thanksgiving slate..but the last dak td followed by pick 6 hurt me from a realistic 1st place sweat!

But again, still have hope! Lets get it
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Kittle killed my last leg as I had him over 29.5 receiving yard. I should had listened to your words (put the nail to the cofin ) and adjust CMC props higher (had over 49.5 rushing and anytime td props) that way I didn't need to add Kittle props. Payout odd was +10753 . Would had been a nice payout on a $100 bet. Either way, Im looking forward to your opinion as they are very helpful.
 
Kmet and Moore the 2 bears receiving options im eying. Gotta rock w fields rush total and ov 9.5 rush attempts. What kind of backfield share we expect chandler to get? I’d love to play his ov 11.5 rec yards as bears been terrible defending running backs in the pass game. Think I lean more to dobbs pass yards than rushing: Kinda like the game over also.
 
ScopeY said:
I took his over rushing small (chandler)

On fields rush over too
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I really like chandler receiving. Bears been awful defending rb in the passing game and think chandler has more receiving skills than Maddison. I thought bout the combined rush:rec but the receiving number so low, 2 catches and he goes well past 11.5 I think.

I like fields rush yards and attempts. If last week was any indicator it seems they more willing to play to his strengths now! Feel like if he doesn’t run 10x somebody should get fired! He had 8 rushes for 46 yards the 1st meeting and he was hurt before halftime wasn’t he? Seem to recall the backup played most the 2md half. Moore seems like a no brainer in the 60s. Kmet 34.5 feels little light considering what tight ends have done to Vikings but don’t want to play to many bears, not that confident in this offense! Lol.

Bears not great vs te either but don’t think much value in Hockenson number, not saying he can’t go over, just that 65.5 pretty strong. Think I prefer Addison at 45.5 and maybe some alt numbers on him.
 
2daBank said:
I really like chandler receiving. Bears been awful defending rb in the passing game and think chandler has more receiving skills than Maddison. I thought bout the combined rush:rec but the receiving number so low, 2 catches and he goes well past 11.5 I think.

I like fields rush yards and attempts. If last week was any indicator it seems they more willing to play to his strengths now! Feel like if he doesn’t run 10x somebody should get fired! He had 8 rushes for 46 yards the 1st meeting and he was hurt before halftime wasn’t he? Seem to recall the backup played most the 2md half. Moore seems like a no brainer in the 60s. Kmet 34.5 feels little light considering what tight ends have done to Vikings but don’t want to play to many bears, not that confident in this offense! Lol.

Bears not great vs te either but don’t think much value in Hockenson number, not saying he can’t go over, just that 65.5 pretty strong. Think I prefer Addison at 45.5 and maybe some alt numbers on him.
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Think there's still value in Hock o6.5 receptions, very easy to see him getting at least 10 targets. Dobbs still favors him big time over anyone else.
 
KJ said:
Think there's still value in Hock o6.5 receptions, very easy to see him getting at least 10 targets. Dobbs still favors him big time over anyone else.
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Yes I actually was lookinv more at his reception total than yards. I just don’t play those very often but I agree
 
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Feel like Addison number leaves some room to wheel the alt numbers on him, one big catch and run and he cashes bunch of plus money!
 
Fields rushing yards for all the reasons Bank stated. Also, Minnesota blitzes alot which tends to cause dudes to scramble a bit more. Moore yards because Fields looks to him consistently. He will get the targets and 61 yards is not too outlandish for a guy that will get 8-10 targets on average. Osborn yards is a buy low, love the spot and as of now it seems Jaylon Johnson won't be covering him and I hope this intel is correct... o29.5 is easy.

Then I am toying with unders. Bears have not faced alot of rushing QBs but LBs is their strength and when faced Russ earlier in year held him to 13 yards. Mattison, for the reasons above the Bears actually have a top 5 run defense in league few are talking about. Mattison is now splitting time... a low number of 40.5 but he may only get 10 carries. Will need 15 to hit this number unless he breaks a big run which would just be bad luck.
 
I'm starting to wonder if I'm too cute with the unders, I rarely do unders so confidence is shaky
 
rambler882 said:
I'm starting to wonder if I'm too cute with the unders, I rarely do unders so confidence is shaky
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Do you have any rule of thumb when it comes to props? I limit it to no more than 2 plays per team. Any more than that and I'm basically asking for a game to go completely as scripted in my mind which might happen 1% of the time if lucky.
 
KJ said:
Do you have any rule of thumb when it comes to props? I limit it to no more than 2 plays per team. Any more than that and I'm basically asking for a game to go completely as scripted in my mind which might happen 1% of the time if lucky.
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More data focused than anything. If theres 1 game on slate just gives me more time to dig. I may opt out of Mattison under … maybe both but the overs I had circled a while. Osborn a buy low which I do look for in games
 
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rambler882 said:
I'm starting to wonder if I'm too cute with the unders, I rarely do unders so confidence is shaky
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For whatever reason I feel like I’m terrible w under props and have the same confidence problem. It doesn’t help it feels like any time I do pull the trigger guy smashes his number by half! Lol. Unless there just a reason for me to love a under prop I’ve pretty much resigned to the idea if I don’t like over i just move on to overs I do. It crazy cause I know there is almost assuredly more value on unders but I just can’t get them right, really odd considering when it comes to totals I’ve always proffered unders. Just some shit I can’t explain, lol. I tend ti agree with you bout Vikings rushing unders but instead I just played the passing game overs. Chandler and Addison yards, thought bout Mattison rec also but just went chandler,, and like dobbs passing .
 
KJ said:
Do you have any rule of thumb when it comes to props? I limit it to no more than 2 plays per team. Any more than that and I'm basically asking for a game to go completely as scripted in my mind which might happen 1% of the time if lucky.
Click to expand...

For most part I don’t go playing lot of guys in same game but I wouldn’t stick that rule on myself, some games we get blessed with fantastic matchups where several guys on same team corralate well. Im sure I’ve played a qb yards with a couple wrs or wr and running back rec yards bunch of times. Hell I played 5 guys in this one but that only cause it stand alone. Not real thrilled having 3 different bears! I coulda easily went 4 seeing how low fields passing only 200 and I played 2 his wrs, but also his damn rush I couldn’t do it, lol. I’ll prob split kmet and Moore but they both felt worth playing, Moore just cause I’ll prob play him over 60s whenever fields in, kmet 35 against a Vikings d who been gashed by te’s couldn’t pass.
 
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i thought bout wheeling kmet alt numbers just cause how many te’s have had big games vs Vikings but he hasn’t had many big games this year and I alrssdy had more bet than I probably needed on this. Just desperate for action after not doing shit for 2 weeks. Lol
 
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I know this not close to the right thread but since I’m here man, I was shocked to see ducks -9.5: I was thinking I was gonna be all over them but I didn’t expect line to be more than a td! Lol
 
2daBank said:
For most part I don’t go playing lot of guys in same game but I wouldn’t stick that rule on myself, some games we get blessed with fantastic matchups where several guys on same team corralate well. Im sure I’ve played a qb yards with a couple wrs or wr and running back rec yards bunch of times. Hell I played 5 guys in this one but that only cause it stand alone. Not real thrilled having 3 different bears! I coulda easily went 4 seeing how low fields passing only 200 and I played 2 his wrs, but also his damn rush I couldn’t do it, lol. I’ll prob split kmet and Moore but they both felt worth playing, Moore just cause I’ll prob play him over 60s whenever fields in, kmet 35 against a Vikings d who been gashed by te’s couldn’t pass.
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I've settled on Addison alt rec yards, Hock receptions and Fields rush attempts. That's all for me.

Really think Minny dominates this game more than anything but with the favorites covering the way they have this week I'm leaving the line alone. Think it's more likely that Minny scores 30 than Chicago scores 20 so there's that, but leaving this one to those three props only.
 
KJ said:
I've settled on Addison alt rec yards, Hock receptions and Fields rush attempts. That's all for me.

Really think Minny dominates this game more than anything but with the favorites covering the way they have this week I'm leaving the line alone. Think it's more likely that Minny scores 30 than Chicago scores 20 so there's that, but leaving this one to those three props only.
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I like over but left that alone. No clue on side, gun ti head id prob play minny: Love the fields rush attempts, I was pissed I couldn’t put that in the sgp! Gl buddy
 
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