Sundays 1PM/Main Slate
PIT/CLV
Steelers have a bad P/RB matchup.
Browns have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Pickett has a bad pressure rate matchup, and bad pass potential. N. Harris? has a meh run potential.
DTR? has a bad pressure rate matchup, and a bad pass potential.
Steelers TTR is 18th (bad).
Browns TTR is 15th (meh).
Pace of play is 4th. O/U Rank is 11th (last/bad).
- Injuries - PIT - On D, DT Heyward (45%), S Neal (66%+), S Fitzpatrick (100%), and DT Adams (60%+) are all Q/haven't practiced. LBs Alexander (56%)/Holcomb (77%) are both out. On O, Freiermuth may be returning.
- CLV - On D, S Thornhill (95%+) is Q. On O, WRs Bell/Goodwin are Q. T Wills is out, T Jones is Q, G Dunn may be returning. no QB Watson.
Harris and Warren continue to be in a 50/50 split, and since they're the same price on DK, if you go here, I have to lean Harris has he get smore opportunities. He's coming off b2b 20 opps games, with 4 targets in each (and in his 4 games post bye week he is actually averaging 4 targets/g).... while the matchup stinks, nobody should beat 5.1K if they're going to get 20~ touches... I may have a touch of him here and there, hopefully DTR gives us some short field position. I like Pickens and all, but in the 4 games with Diontae back, he has a 19% target share, compared to 29%, and his aDOT isn't significantly better at 13.36 vs 11.79... while I think you can take a darth throw shot if mass entering, I'll still go Diontae 9 out of 10 times when they are practically the same price. Speaking of price, for a guy with 29%/11.79 #'s, idc who you are playing, you shouldn't be 5K. I know he dudded again, but Robinson is playing a ton of snaps and is floor priced... for now, I'll keep him on my list of punt/salary saver options, let's see if we can find more. If Friermuth does come back, he is a starter that is at floor price... so I won't fault you from going here, just know in his first/only 4 games of the season, he had a 10% target share, with an ok aDOT of 6.54... not sure if there are other salary options yet at TE, so I think he is obviously fine... but I don't think he has a ton of upside (although 3 for 40~ will still pay off that salary.
In DTR's one start, ford had 6 targets, and he's recently been playing 2/3rd's of snaps... I understand if you see him as a cheap option and want to go here. I'm not saying I want to go overboard on CLV WRs, but I do think they'll be playing from behind, and in Week 4, Cooper had a huge 21.17 aDOT (and 17.5%~ target share), I think in a tourney, you could take a shot. I think Moore is wayyy to cheap at 3.5K, I thought so last week too, as they actually lowered his price post a 15 FPs performance... I guess he is a better punt option than A-Rob, even Tillman at 3K plays a ton of snaps without DPJ now, and has a big aDOT. Njoku feels a bit to expensive at 3.9K, but if you want to one-off him, he will come at sub 1% ownership, and in week 4 he had a 6 aDOT, double his season number, with a bigger target share too at 20.5%, so he could be sneaky.
CHI/DET
Bears have a meh P/RB matchup.
Lions have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Fields? has a meh pressure rate matchup, and a meh pass potential. Foreman? has a good run potential.
Goff has a great pressure rate matchup, and a great pass potential.
Bears TTR is 14th (meh).
Lions TTR is 2nd (great).
Pace of play is 10th (meh). O/U Rank is T-1st (good).
- Injuries - CHI - On D, LB Edmunds (90%+) is Q, has missed 3 weeks. On O, RB Herbert may be back, Foreman is Q.
- DET - Healthy.
I am not getting involved in this backfield, as we don't know how it will shake out, and with Fields back, we add in an additional vulture candidate. Moore is $100 away from being the cheapest he has been all year, and in his 5 full games with Fields, he had a 24% target share, with a really good aDOT of 13.06, he is fine to play. Mooney is kind of like Moore, he feels too cheap, but the volume on both teams aren't typically high, still he has an 11.5% target share with a really good aDOT of 13.13, and plays enough, so I get it for game stacking this with multiple entries, or maybe a one-off salary saver option --- not saying I'll be going here though. Like Njoku, Kmet feels a bit expensive, 21% target share/6.69 aDOT, but I think his ownership will be higher than Njokus... I'd save him for game stacks, but I won't have much of him if any. I want to note that Fields twice finished as a top 3 QB on the week (not the main slate), and both of those came in his last full starts. He saw 11 carries in 2 of those last 3 full starts, and in half a game was on pace to break that, as he had 8 carries week 6... If they are giving him back that kind of rushing volume, I think he is a good play.
Montgomery only played 38% of snaps, in a game where they kind of lead/were tied throughout --- that worries me. He also had 0 targets --- that worries me. And he also admitted to letting Gibbs get his TD --- wtf was that. At 6.8K, I can't feel comfortable clicking him, and will pass. Gibbs on the other hand played 58% of snaps, and not only had more carries, finished with 5 targets (22 total opps). If I go here, I'd rather take Gibbs --- just know he is priced as the 5th most expensive back, and there is a path where montgomery sees more work, but he has finished as a top 3 ppr back on the week in his last 3 starts, so I get it... I'll be underweight though. St. Brown is now 8.8K, the most expensive he has been --- in the last 4 weeks with this current WR core all playing together, he has a massive 33% target share, but just an aDOT of 7.1. While I think he can always be played, if you think CHI can't keep up, you have to full fade him,,, as he is not 3x'ing+ this salary without at least 1 TD, but 11 to 15 targets can arguably be his floor. The other 3 WRs are cheap enough, where price shouldn't matter, so whoever is the worst is out... that's you Raymond, as he plays the least and has the worst aDOT. Despite playing slightly less, Williams did see his best snap share of the season last week, and since his return, actually out targets Reynolds 9% to 7%, while having a much bigger aDOT of 17.79 to 11.36... I'd consider him as my 2nd choice as WR/salary saver/punt/home run hitter/multiple game stacks here. LaPorta has a good target share of 21%, with a good aDOT of 7.52, I think he can always be considered, I think I'd save him for mini stacks/team stacks as his 5.8K price tag is steeep, and that kind of target/aDOT combo isn't that far off from the people priced lower than him.
LAC/GBP
Chargers have a good P/RB matchup.
Packers have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Herbert has a good pressure rate matchup, and good pass potential.
Love has a great pressure rate matchup, and good pass potential.
Chargers TTR is T-6th (good).
Packers TTR is 13th.
Pace of play is 2nd (good). O/U Rank is 5th.
- Injuries - LAC - On D, S Woods may be returning, and LB Rumph (24%) is out for 2nd week. On O, WR Allen/TE Everett are Q.
- GBP - On D, S Ford (100%) is Q. S Savage (100%~) is out for 4th week. On O, WR Watson/RB Jones are Q.
Another charger game, another one you need to consider having pieces from, and another packer game, another one where I want to be overweight, but I'm scared they will continue to fail me..... anyways.
Ekeler has now returned for his 5th straight game, he has gone through the gauntlet of his most difficult games (DAL/CHI/NYJ --- KCC/DET, from a FPa perspective) and now comes into an extremely light part of his schedule. In those games, he still averaged 6 targets/g, hitting at least 7 in his last 3, while coming off a 26 opp game. He is one of the best options on the slate from a floor/ceiling perspective. I will never tell you not to play Keenan Allen, and maybe this shoulder sprain will keep people off of him, I just don't think I can afford to pay up for him when I prefer Ekeler of the two. From an ancillary perspective, Johnston/Guyton have been the Williams/Palmer replacements. Guyton was still getting his bearings straight from being activated 2 weeks ago, playing just 57% of snaps, and seeing 2 targets, but last week it jumped to 79%, and actually looks like the downfield threat compared to Johnston. As he had a 10.17 aDOT, to Johnstons 6.25, and a better target share of 15% to 10%... he is just 3.3K, in a better pace/total environment than those other punt options... I like him a lot. They play about 4 TEs weekly, they have shitty aDOTs typically, and have target shares under 10% each... pass.
Since his return, and not eclipsing 57% of snaps, Jones is still being heavily utilized, and has yet to have under 5 targets in a game yet, He is tied cheapest he has been, and is a good matchup/best paced game for him.. I like it. I had a lot of GBP last week (and other weeks too) and I mostly keep getting it wrong. Unfortunately I still think I am going right back to the well with Watson. In his 5 full starts since return, he leads the team in both target share (18%) and aDOT, a massive 17.28, yet he is cheaper, by a little, than Doubs. Now I think in tourneys, you can go up to doubes or down to Reed, but I'll mainly be on Watson. Musgrave seems like a fine option, but his routes run has dropped, his target shar at 14% is just ok, as well as his 6 aDOT... I'll pass for now.
LVR/MIA
Raiders have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Dolphins have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
O'Connell has a meh pass potential. Jacobs has a meh run potential.
Tua has a great pressure rate matchup, and a good pass potential. Achane? has a great run potential.
Raiders TTR is T-16th (bad).
Dolphins TTR is 1st (great).
Pace of play is T-7th. O/U Rank is 3rd (good).
- Injuries - LVR - On D, CB Robertson (70%+) is Q. They may be returning S Teamer.
- MIA - On O, G/G/G Hunt/Wynn/Jones are all out. RB Achane should be returning. WR Claypool is out for 2nd week.
Antonio Pierce has brought Jacobs back... he has played an average of 80%+ of snaps, and has had no less than 26 carries in each game.... My concern is he only as 2 targets across both of those games, but I'll attribute that to them winning both of the games (and one in a landslide). I think Jacobs can be played. In the 2 games with Pierce/O'Connell Adams has a HUGE 41% target share, and a really good aDOT of 12.55.... even if that target share goes down, I bet the passing volume goes up from the 2 games in which they won... so in my opinion, Adams easily has a double digit target floor with as much upside as the other big dogs, and he comes in slightly cheaper than the Lambs/Diggs/Allens/etc. Meyers is to expensive for barely being over a 14% target share, and a meh 8.43 aDOT... even Week 4 with O'connell starting the numbers were worse, pass. Renfrow/Tucker are ok punt/salary saver options at min price, in a high total envirnoment.. not sure I go there though. Mayer may be one of my favorite punt options... he has now seen b2b games with 88% of snaps, is almost floor priced, and has a 14% target share in those 2 games.... even 3-25 statline 2x'es this salary, but he also has TD equity, as he has the most RZ targets in these last 2 games.
First and foremost, what the hell do we do with Achane? How much will he play? Will Mostert be out? In weeks 3-5, he played between 40 and 60% of snaps, and NEVER finished under 22 FPs.... if you can expect that, you insta lock him... especially in this plus matchup. Idk what I am doing yet, but in tournaments, I feel like you have to at least take a stab in a couple lineups, just incase he explodes. Mostert is to expensive with Achane back/a lingering injury, pass. Do I think Waddle can breakout? Yes, but he is so expensive relative to what he actually has done this season..it stinks... he has only greater than 2x'd this salary twice, and it took 10~ targets and a TD in each... I'll pass unless doing a big game stack. Even taking out weeks 3/7/9 when Waddle either did not play or was out for part of it, he still has a massive 30% target share, with a 12 aDOT, and we know he can YAC/HR hit you at any point. If you can afford him, go for it. I wish Berrios would be out, then I'd have all the interest with wilson at the floor price.... last week he had a 16% target share, with a great 17.4 aDOT --- it'll be on my radar, otherwise I may pass. I say this every week, but Smythe plays a ton of snaps, and he is practically floor priced... so it does not take much to pay off 2.6K... he is fine as a punt/salary saver.
NYG/WAS
Giants have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Commanders have a great P/RB matchup.
DeVito has a bad pressure rate matchup. Barkley has a bad run potential.
Br. Robinson has a great run potential.
Giants TTR is 22nd (bad/last).
Commanders TTR is 9th (good).
Pace of play is T-5th. O/U Rank is 10th (bad).
- Injuries - NYG - On D, CB Jackson (90%+) is out for 2nd week. On O, no T Neal. Obvi no QB Taylor/Jones, TE Waller.
- WAS - On D, no DE Smith-Williams (37%), LB Barton (100%) out for 4th week. On O, 3rd string RB Armah is out, and Gibson is doubtful.
we have like 1.67 real games with DeVito. The giants entire WR roster is 3.5K or lower, mostly floor price. It is hard to gauge production as they've been slaughter 2 weeks in a row... but I have a weird feeling/comment.. if you create a few lineups with DeVito + 2 pass catchers, and then you maybe punt one or both of TE/DEF, you can practically play whomever you want at the 2RB/1WR/1Flex spot.... and this may be the best P DVOA matchup they've had recently. Hmm. Slayton seems to be the safest, as he plays the most, and has a healthy aDOT, if I go this route, he will be my core guy. You can really go anywhere, but I think Hyatt pre concussion and looking at week 9, started to really see his role increase, and I think I'd play him 2nd. Then maybe Robinson/Hodgins 3rd. Bellinger is seeing 80%+ of snaps, but his target share is just 11%, and his aDOT is ok at 5.33, I'd rather punt lower than the 3K price, but I get it if you want to go here. Barkley is pricey, when you consider how inept this offense really has been, but he is high volume, and has a safe PPR floor, I'm fine if you want to consider him.
ALL ABOARD the Br. Robinson train.... this is a question of leverage/ownership fade, as if there is no Gibson, he is almost certain to break over 60% of snaps, and he is coming off a game where he got a season high 6 targets, which was always my gripe with him... and now the 3rd down/ppr back may be out too, they're faves, the matchup is good... he's a great play, especially for cash, but again... the question is do you fade the high ownership, or eat it and pivot elsewhere --- doing Devito + 2 NYG + Br. Robinson... then you really can pick anyone you want (don't go overboard with this idea, as it is dangerous, but just a thought). This team has such a high passing volume, low target shares still aren't terrible... having said that, they are projected to play with a lead, and in the 8 games with the big 3 at WR, Dotson/Samuels target shares are btw 14-16%, and their aDOTs don't even break 8.5... I'll pass on them. McLaurin is cheap enough to consider, he has a 21% target share, and a 10.66 aDOT. I'll pass on Thomas probably, but he isn't that expensive, and can get you there, but his 2 spike weeks were in games where they trailed, and this isn't really one of them.
DAL/CAR
Cowboys have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Panthers have a bad P/RB matchup.
Dak has a great pressure rate matchup, and a good pass potential. Pollard has a great run potential.
Young has a bad pressure rate matchup, and a bad pass potential. Hubbard? has a bad run potential.
Cowboys TTR is T-3rd (great).
Panthers TTR is T-19th (bad).
Pace of play is T-7th. O/U Rank is 6th (meh).
- Injuries - DAL - On O, TE Hendershot may be returning, RB Dowdle downgraded to Q late in week.
- CAR - On D, 2nd week w/o CB Henderson (74%+)/LB Houston. On O, no TE Hurst.
Pollard has been such a disappointment... but he still plays 70%~ of snaps, is the cheapest he has been all year, is in a big time smash spot, while always having a path to 24ish~ touches... I am on board. The passing offense has been so good of late, but CAR has been kind of stingy, and maybe that's a product of teams not needed to pass later in the game... but if the goal line trips turn into fgs/rush TDs, Dak may not get to 300 pass yards, and he won't pay off that salary otherwise. Same goes for the elevated priced on Lamb... I have to fade them in tourneys. If you want another piece, I'd probably hope for a HR hit by Gallup/Cooks. The return of Hendershott should result in a slight reduction of snaps from Ferguson/the WR3, I'll be passing on the TEs too.
I'll add that Hubbard has played the least he has since becoming the "starter", seeing just 50% of snaps, with only 11 opps (2 targets), that's bad, and while I don't want sanders, he did see the highest amount of snaps since losing his gig (38%).... They are both under 5K, so can 1 pay off? Yes, but not something I'm chasing. Carolinas Pass/Run ratio is HIGH, 4th overall, and even looking at the last 3 weeks, in 2 neutral games, they would still rank in the top 10. Now Thielen seems a bit expensive, but we've seen him hit 30+ points multiple times, so I get if you want to go here in a, what should be, positive script. I do have interest in Chark for tourneys though, as he has the best aDOT on the team, and a 14~% target share in the 4 games with their "big 3". With no Hurst, and possibly no Sullivan, Tremble will be come a good punt/salary saver play at floor price.
TEN/JAC
Titans have a bad P/RB matchup.
Jaguars have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Levis has a good pressure rate matchup, but a bad pass potential.
Lawrence has a great pressure rate matchup. Etienne has a bad run potential.
Titans TTR is T-16th (bad).
Jaguars TTR is T-6th (good).
Pace of play is 12th (meh), O/U Rank is 8th (meh).
- Injuries - TEN - On D, CB Murphy-Bunting (98%+) is out for 2nd week. On O, no T Dillard/T Petit-Frere, and T Brunskill is Q. No WR Burks
- JAC - On D, no CB Campbell (98%+). On O, no WR Agnew, WR Z. Jones is Q.
The price on Derrick Henry is holy shit bad, and nothing we'd expect to see this year... but the last 2 weeks he hasn't even hit 50% of snaps... you can always make the case he will slate break eventually, and this is tournament talk, so I get it if you want to go here, but I can't stomach clicking his name, he actually has just 1 game over 19 points this season, and the pace of this game isn't great...... Spears is playing more than Henry, and if he can get a TD, I think he can easily 3x his 4.6K salary. Not sure if I definitely go here a lot, but maybe in a lineup. Looking at the 3 starts with Levis, Hopkins has a 24.5% target share, with a big 17.84 aDOT, that will always make someone a tournament. The rest of the lineup at WR are all practically floor price... so really play the guy with the best stats.... I think that's actually Ikhine, has he has the biggest aDOT/HR potential, Moore would actually be my 2nd option, has both of these guys see way more playing tinem than philips (who also has the worst aDOT of the group). Chig has seen an average of 5 targets in the 3 games with Levis, giving him a 16% target shrare, with a good te aDOT of 7.88, he also plays 70%~ of snaps... you can argue he is the best play after Hopkins.
If you want to argue Etienne, it's that he is a workhorse that can get 30+ with his volume, PLUS he will be lower owned than most weeks. Personally though, I don't want to play RBs vs TEN. We don't have Agnew this week, and possibly no Zay. On the season, Ridley and Kirk grade out pretty closely, while Kirk has a slightly better target share, Ridley is the leader in aDOT... and aDOT is what I want, PLUS he is cheaper/lowest he has been all year. Yes please. From a volume perspective, Engram can be played, he runs the most routes at TE per dropback, and has a 22.5% target share, but his aDOT is a terrible 3.63, so I think he is safe, sometimes his upside is capped. I'm 5050 on him, if you want to do a mini game stack and have him over the Ridley/Kirks, that's fine.
ARI/HOU
Cards have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Texans have a great P/RB matchup.
Murray has a meh pressure rate matchup, and a meh pass potential.
Stroud has a good pressure rate matchup, and a great pass potential.
Cards TTR is 12th.
Texans TTR is 5th (great).
Pace of play is 1st (good). O/U Rank is T-1st (good).
- Injuries - ARI - On D, DE Ledbetter (66%) is out. On O, probably no WR Wilson, no WR Pascal, no RB Demarcado.
- HOU - On D, LB To'oTo'o (80%+)/S Ward (90%+) are out for 2nd week. On O, WR Brown is likely out, so is RB Pierce.
In Conners return, he came in and played 63%~ of snaps, and had 16 good carries. While the 0 targets is concerning, and honestly all year he really hasn't been a big target guy, I'll go back to his prior year where he averaged over 4~ targets/g with Kyler... He is a good option at 5.7K. There's probably no Wilson this week, and Kyler is showing a path for his receiving options. While I think Hollywood is fine at 5.3K, he had just a 13% target share last week, but the best aDOT of 16.75, so I get it... who I do want is Rondale Moore... as he had a big 26% target share, his aDOT was weaker at 8.75, but he is just 3.3K. 3.3K and 20%+ targets shouldn't co-exist, and doesn't for long. McBrides price has elevated, and rightfully so... he can't keep up a 29% target share, but even if that drops a little, his 9.44 aDOT is really good for a TE... he can be played.
With no Pierce for 2 weeks, Singletary has now played 78%~ of snaps b2b, and has had 1 game with 15 opps, and the other with 32 opps.... even if we meet in the middle at 24ish~ (2 targets), he is a fine play at 5.3K (wow.). I think all WRs are in play for HOU, but I find it hard hitting Collins when Dell is starting to look better statistically, and is cheaper. Woods came back last week and play 60% of snaps, with Brown isn't active, he is cheap at 3.7K. I am not chasing Schultz price jump this week, and to add B. Jordan/Beck are both in line to play, which should at least slightly reduce his snaps/possible targets.
Sunday 4PMs/Main Slate (Cont.)
TBB/SFO
Bucs have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
49ers have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Baker has a meh pass potential. R. White has a meh run potential.
Purdy has a good pressure rate matchup, and a great pass potential.
Bucs TTR is 21st (bad).
49ers TTR is T-3rd (great).
Pace of play is 14th (meh). O/U Rank is 7th (meh).
- Injuries - TBB - On D, S Neal (96%~) is out.
- SFO - On D, DE Jackson (40%+) is out for 2nd week.
R. White has been the quietest workhorse in the league, and he has started to really hit the last 3-4~ weeks. He is coming off B2B games with 23+ opps, which is always a good thing for someone at 6K, but the 49ers are healthier than ever, and just held even Etienne to a terrible stat line.. I don't really want to go here.
Even in this tough perceived matchup CMC can be played anytime. He is coming off 2 weeks with at least 7 targets, and is always a candidate for 2 TDs (as he should at least get one). In 5 games with Deebo, Aiyuk has a really good 25.5% target share and a huge 15.8 aDOT... he has great upside, but we need a competitive game, so I think I'd use him for mini/full game stacks only. As SFO has the 2nd lowest pass/run rate, and are always the slowest team in terms of secs/play... so there is risk. While Kittle has a great aDOT on the year, he takes a back seat when Deebo/Aiyuk are both in play, as his target share in those 5 games is just 15%. We can't pay top dollar for that kind of production, especially in what vegas projects is not a competitive game, so I'll pass. Evans has a sick 25% target share/14.39 aDOT in his full games, but he is priced so high and has more paths to dud you then not... so again, I'll pass. Otton plays a ton of snaps, and runs a route on 79% of dropbacks (good for 4th best)... I expect them to be playing from behind, and in there last 3 losses, he has hit at least 6 targets, he is fine at 3.4K.
NYJ/BUF
Jets have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Bills have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Z. Wilson has a bad pressure rate matchup, and a meh pass potential. Hall has a bad run potential.
Allen has a meh pressure rate matchup. J. Cook? has a good run potential.
Jets TTR is T-19th (bad).
Bills TTR is 10th.
Pace of play is 9th. O/U Rank is 9th (bad).
- Injuries - NYJ - On D, CB Carter (70%) is Q. On O, WR Wilson is Q.
- BUF - Pm D. DT Phillips (44%) is Q. On O, WR Sherfield is Q.
Cook is just not getting it done, I guess he is always a sneaky tourney play, as he can only score TDs out of the redzone it looks like... so when he does, he becomes more of a HR hitter. But with Murray the goalline guy, and Allen also a vulture (and arguably a bigger candidate if he has the greenlight to run more) I have to pass on Cook. The 3 weeks without Knox, Gab Davis aactually grades out as the best WR, as he has a 21% target share, with a 10.85 aDOT, and he is SIGNIFICANTLY cheaper than Diggs, who had a 25% target share, with a bad 6.33 aDOT. Davis > Diggs for me. Who I want if I go here is Kincaid, in his 3 solo games without knox, he has a great target share of 25%, with a meh aDOT of 4.79, but it may be the softest area to attack this secondary.
I think Hall is always a tournament option, we've seen his explosiveness, and he is coming off a game where he played 70% of snaps, while being a safe PPR candidate too. Wilson has an incredible 33% target share/10.75 aDOT. If he plays, he can always be considered, if he doesn't, I kind of like Gipson, in the last 2 weeks, he has seen good playing time, and has a 16.8 aDOT....Conklin under 3K seems good, he has a good TE aDOT of 7.19, and a target share of 15%.
SEA/LAR
Seahawks have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Rams have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Geno has a good pass potential. Walker has a good run potential.
Henderson? has a good run potential.
Seahawks TTR is T-6th (good).
Rams TTR is 11th.
Pace of play is 3rd (good). O/U Rank is 4th.
- Injuries - SEA - On D, CB/S Brown(60%)/Adams(85%+) are Q. On O, WR Lockett is Q. T Lucas is out.
- LAR - On D, CB Durant (75%+) is Q.
Walker has now had 3 straight games under 50% of snaps, and never seeing more than 2 targets in each.. I am not paying a premium for that concern. Take out his game he didn't play, and Metcalf has a solid 24%/12.46 stat line, that are both better than Lockett, and he isn't that much more expensive, so Metcalf for me 9/10 times. Pass at the TE carousel. Pass on JSNs terrible 3.49 aDOT with the big 3 all in.
I don't want this backfield, they split time, are in a tough matchup, and with stafford back, I expect the volume to be even worse. At WR, Kupp/Nacua in 4 games w/ stafford have an insane 33%~ target share each, with 9~ aDOTs... either can be played. Higbee quietly had a 14% target share with a good 7.19 aDOT with Stafford, I won't go here much, but understand for a game stack.
---- I just want one time the players I am underweight on to get hurt, and not ones I'm overweight on.... ugh
