DFS/Props Week 10 Discussion
- Thread starter ScopeY
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ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Thursday Night/Showdown Slate
LVR@DEN
Raiders have a bad P/RB matchup.
Broncos have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Geno has a bad pass potential. Jeanty has a bad rush potential.
Nix has a great pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Dobbins~ has a great rush potential.
Pace of play is 6th.
- Jeanty only had 18 opps in an OT game, but it was with 5 targets, and a 91% snap share, highest of the season, he has a relatively safe floor imo, with some upside, and may go a bit lower owned. Bowers finished last wek with a 34% target share, my yearlong mind wants him to fail tonight and maybe I can reach out to Bower owners for trades, but it is hard to ignore how massive his upside is, especially with Meyers 16% target share no logner here. Bowers wasn't in either, but when Meyers missed week 7, Tucker had a massive 35% target share, and it was Thornton that looked like the WR2, although Lockett was not there either. While Lockett is the technical WR2 and has cheap salary of 3K --- I will be including him a touch --- I actually don't mind HR hunting with Thornton, as he is even cheaper, and had the biggest aDOT in wk7 of 12.67 (no other player was over 5). I even like Mayer more than Lockett, he finished with 7 targets last week, and played just as much as Bowers (83% to 81%) --- how is he just 2.8K?
Dobbins has a very low PPR floor, although he does have some TD equity when looking strictly at todays script but harvey has really been the RZ and 3rd down guy, and with 80 empty-less yards you won't be so happy. Franklin has seen his snaps rise in 3 straight games, hitting 79% last week, and in his first game without mims, and backing up his week 8 performance, he hit another 29% target share, and was by far the best metric WR on the team (he had a huge aDOT of 19.5 on 10 targets too, like what?!!? I will say Sutton also had a big one at 21.5, but just a 17.5% target share. The only other WR I would flyer on if mass entering is Pat Bryant. I'll pass on Engram, he's playing about 50% of snaps and hasn't been utilized much.
LVR@DEN
Raiders have a bad P/RB matchup.
Broncos have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Geno has a bad pass potential. Jeanty has a bad rush potential.
Nix has a great pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Dobbins~ has a great rush potential.
Pace of play is 6th.
- Jeanty only had 18 opps in an OT game, but it was with 5 targets, and a 91% snap share, highest of the season, he has a relatively safe floor imo, with some upside, and may go a bit lower owned. Bowers finished last wek with a 34% target share, my yearlong mind wants him to fail tonight and maybe I can reach out to Bower owners for trades, but it is hard to ignore how massive his upside is, especially with Meyers 16% target share no logner here. Bowers wasn't in either, but when Meyers missed week 7, Tucker had a massive 35% target share, and it was Thornton that looked like the WR2, although Lockett was not there either. While Lockett is the technical WR2 and has cheap salary of 3K --- I will be including him a touch --- I actually don't mind HR hunting with Thornton, as he is even cheaper, and had the biggest aDOT in wk7 of 12.67 (no other player was over 5). I even like Mayer more than Lockett, he finished with 7 targets last week, and played just as much as Bowers (83% to 81%) --- how is he just 2.8K?
Dobbins has a very low PPR floor, although he does have some TD equity when looking strictly at todays script but harvey has really been the RZ and 3rd down guy, and with 80 empty-less yards you won't be so happy. Franklin has seen his snaps rise in 3 straight games, hitting 79% last week, and in his first game without mims, and backing up his week 8 performance, he hit another 29% target share, and was by far the best metric WR on the team (he had a huge aDOT of 19.5 on 10 targets too, like what?!!? I will say Sutton also had a big one at 21.5, but just a 17.5% target share. The only other WR I would flyer on if mass entering is Pat Bryant. I'll pass on Engram, he's playing about 50% of snaps and hasn't been utilized much.
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ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Sunday Morning/Showdown Slate
ATL@IND
Falcons have a meh P/RB matchup.
Colts have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Penix has a great pressure rate situation, but a bad pass potential. Bijan has a meh rush potential.
D. Jones has a good pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Taylor has a great rush potential.
Pace of play is 5th.
- Notes
ATL@IND
Falcons have a meh P/RB matchup.
Colts have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Penix has a great pressure rate situation, but a bad pass potential. Bijan has a meh rush potential.
D. Jones has a good pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Taylor has a great rush potential.
Pace of play is 5th.
- Notes
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ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Sunday 1PMs/Main Slate
NOS@CAR
Saints have a good P/RB matchup.
Panthers have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Kamara~ has a meh rush potential.
Young has a meh pressure rate situation. Dowdle has a good rush potential.
Saints TTR is 20th (meh/last)
Panthers TTR is 10th.
Pace of play is 1st (good). O/U Rank is 8th (bad).
- I like the pace of this matchup, and the saints side is relatively cheap, but we can't really be game stacking this game, and I would reserve it for one-offs at best. Last week in Shoughs first full start, shaheed had a 37.5% target share/12.5 aDOT --- that's alpha status metrics, that now get passed on to the other players. Olave/Juwan had 16.67% target shares, and it is hard not to see each hit well into the 20s at the least. Now Olave feels a bit to expensive in the 6K range/tough matchup, but I undestand juwan at 3.7K a bit more... if you really want a salary saver, one of Vele/Cooks would be where I go. Backfield/QB, pass.
Dowdle got the word last week that he will be the guy, and he went right back to a 72% snap share, and hit 28 opps (3 targets), he is a league winner type back at this level, and at 6.3K he is to cheap in a projected positive pass script. In Youngs L3, all that were wins, they've really limited Youngs pass attempts, never exceeding 25 total, McMillan/Legette split in that game 22.5% targets each, even if he hits 25 pass attempts, that is just 5-6 targets max --- now if McMillan is out, I'll consider Legette as a one-off/salary saver.
BAL@MIN
Ravens have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Vikings have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Lamar has a bad pressure rate situation.
McCarthy has a meh pass potential.
Ravens TTR is T-3rd (great).
Vikings TTR is T-11th.
Pace of play is 11th (bad). O/U Rank is T-4th (good).
- Lamar comes back and 3.5x's his salary in a blowout win, and no rushing ability, that feels like a low end outcome honestly. The passing options weren't asked to do to much, but 22% target share/7.2 aDOT --- again which feels like a floor --- seems ok for a player in the 5K range, I even think Bateman is an option he led in aDOT last week, and played >70% of snaps and is in that 3K close to min price range. Only other guy I want to mention as a stacking option or one-off is Likely -- again -- he played the most among the 3 TEs, led in targets, and is near the min price range of TEs (2.5K) at 2.9K, 1 TD, or a 3-45-0 stat line, and I think you are already happy. You can always play Henry in tourneys when the field isn't, but again, I hate the no PPR floor, if it wasn't for the 100 yard bonus, he would have barely 2.4x'd~ this salary.
We took advantage of some cheap/low owned plays last week with MIN, I don't think they go low owned again in this matchup, but JJ had a massive 39% target share with MIN, he has WR1 overall ability in this matchup, and will be a part of a chunk of my lineups. Addison/Nailor I think can be alternated if bigger game stacking. Addison is practically an everydown WR, but had a big 25.5 aDOT, Nailor shared in his target share number (17%), and had a big aDOT too at 18.75, but plays a lot less. Howver, the differences are reflected in the price, and I think they are both viable options too. Hockenson feels like a no go, his only plus is he is cheap, but 13% target share/5 aDOT --- we can find better. I didn't mention it, but JJ is still 4.9K, despite 4x'ing this last week, and having an even better matchup this week, come on now. I won't fault you for playing Mason if Jones is out, but I think that is a matchup where I'll fade the high exposure -- if Jones wasn't dealign with an injury, I'd say he looked really good last week, and that this guys prices should be flipped, but I'll pass on both.
BUF@MIA
Bills have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Dolphins have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Allen has a great pass potential. Cook has a great rush potential.
Tua has a meh pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Achane has a good rush potential.
Bills TTR is 1st (great).
Dolphins TTR is 13th.
Pace of play is 14th (bad/last). O/U Rank is 1st (great).
- I know its RB vs MIA D strategy (which failed with Bijan not to long ago), but Cook has 2 total targets in his L4 games, he is starting to become a better version of Henry, but can we justify paying 7.5K for a guy that needs to go like 100+ 2+ to really slate break, I know that is possible in this game, but I don't want to jump in on this with the exposure he will have, as he can certainly fail as well... just last week he played 76% of snaps ,and had 28 opps, but he finished with just 16.5 fps, which barely 2x's this salary, not only that, but it is possible this game becomes more of a blowout, he had been dealing with an ankle injury all week, I am just going to fade. I know any of these WRs could blow up in any game, but they continue to disappoint, but none seem to be worth it minus Shakir --- only on full PPR sites --- since the bye (2 games) he does have a 31% target share, but that is accompanied with a 0.73 aDOT, you read that right. I think in tourneys where mass entering, Shavers at the min price could be worth a dart throw. The only other consideration I'd have is Kincaid, as he had a 9 aDOT since the bye, and an ok 19% target share, but he is the 4th most expensive TE, do we really love it? Not really.
This offense runs primarily through 2 people, especially post Waller/Hill, and that is Waddle/Achane. Achane continues to hover around, and even over, a 25% target share, which is unheard of for a RB, last week alone he had 10 targets, without the rushing upside, that is a great WR to click --- his aDOT was even better than Shakirs
--- I have no problems going him, as if they even want to be competitive, it will have to go through him. Waddle is the most expensive he has been, but he has solid metrics, and isn't really mispriced, but again, a 25%~ target share, and a double digit aDOT can get you places in tourneys. The only other player I'd consider is Dulcich, he was brought in very quickly 2 weeks ago, and have 5~ days of reps, in his 2nd game, he ended up with a 14% target share, an increased snap count, and he now had an additional 10 days to familiarize himself, he is $100 above the min price, and his direct backup, and only other TE really on the roster, is Q to play, I don't want to go overboard on a ton of dolphins, but he is glaring value.
CLV@NYJ
Browns have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Jets have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Gabriel has a meh pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential.
Fields has a bad pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Hall has a bad rush potential.
Browns TTR is T-14th.
Jets TTR is 19th (meh).
Pace of play is 2nd (good). O/U Rank is 10th (bad/last).
- I weirdly have some interest in Gabriel at 4.4K, he 3x'd this salary last week with just 156 passing yards, and 2 turnovers, and now Jets let go of some of there best defensive players... I know they want to run Judkins, and I'll make sure to flip some roster construction if this fails, but I will be taking some shots with Gabriel and Co. Not only that, but he is getting a new playcaller in his ear, probably his best playmaker in Tillman should be returning, we have a bit more of a concentrated offense with the prior WR2 now out (bond), and even Fannin is Q, and any time of game stack, whether mini or a bit bigger, is SO cheap, as the WR1 (Jeudy) isn't even at 4K... min price is 3K.
Jets should be returning Wilson, if he suits up, in the 4 games he played with Fields this year, he had a 33% target share, and a 9.6 aDOT, those numbers should equate to some of the alphas, yet he is only 6.1K, yes please. I don't mind Hall either, he is fairly priced at 6K, the matchup is tough, but he should be in line for 20+ opps, and a ok ppr floor. To go along with the Wilson metrics, Taylor would be my only other bringback option, in those games with fields he actually had a 20% target share, with a decent TE aDOT of 7, but we can't play a ton of TEs, and I doubt I have much if any at all.
NYG@CHI
Giants have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Bears have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Dart has a good pass potential. Tracy~ has a good rush potential.
Williams has a great pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Swift? has a great rush potential.
Giants TTR is T-11th.
Bears TTR is T-6th (good).
Pace of play is 4th. O/U Rank is 6th (good).
- I'll start off by saying this is the worst weather game of the week, so I'll dampen my projections/exposure here. I'll start by saying I don't ;love the timeshare in the backfield, neither got to 11 opps. last week, and despite Tracy starting, Singletary outsnapped/touched him, I guess at 4.3K, that is ridiculously cheap, but we have found better value elsewhere, where I don't think we need it here. I would have loved Dart more in this matchup if it wasn't for the weather, but DK FINALLY --- as I have been saying it every week --- made him more expensive. He doesn't break the bank just yet, but it is something to note, especially when everyone sees his FP success, as well as an opponent D rank of 30th, I'll be underweight. In the first game without Skattebo, and with Rayray, all of the 3 WRs played 90%+ of snaps. Wandale had a big time 34% target share, and a 4.2 aDOT, Slaytons Metrics weren't that much worse, with a 22%/12.4 aDOT, but I don't want the guy who will have deeper throws in this weather, normally I'd say his price drop is worth it, but WanDale on PPR sites can get you there. TE Johnson is to expensive for me, but if you have conviction go for it. I would say RayRay is another week more comfortable with dart/the offense, he could be a dart throw/pivot off of the others punts and/or wandale to consider where mass entering.
If Swift is out, we obviously load up on Monangai, but if he is in, can we trust either? None of the offenseive weapons really jump off the board for CHI, and they are all active, the 4 WRs (Odunze>Moore>Zaccheaus>Burden) as well as the 2 TEs (Loveland>Kmet), the last time all 6 really played were weeks 6/7, and 1 person hit a 20% target share (Odunze), and 5 total people got over 10%. You can pick your poison with a one-off, or a bringback to pair with a player on the otherside, I guess I lean more to Odunze/Moore.
NEP@TBB
Pats have a bad P/RB matchup.
Bucs have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Maye has a bad pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential. Stevenson? has a bad rush potential.
Baker has a meh pressure rate situation. Bucky? has a meh rush potential.
Pats TTR is T-8th.
Bucs TTR is T-6th (good).
Pace of play is 12th (bad). O/U Rank is T-4th (good).
- Another week without Stevenson! Henderson last week hit 75% of snaps, 20 opps (6 targets), and he is still priced in the 5K range, yes please. I know Jennings stole the goal line TD, but Henderson had his chances first, and still screams value. We haven't had a full game without Boutte (or w/ Stevenson out too) but looking just at last week, Douglas and Henry were the target hogs, as both had a 21.5% share. Douglas accompanied it with a big 22 aDOT, now at 4K he looks valuable, and normally I'd say hammer, but he really doesn't play a lot of snaps for some reason, even with Boutte leaving early last week, he hit just 24%, I have concerns, and will be playing him very minimally. I think Henry, like Dulcich, is one of my favorite value plays, he is cheap for his usage, and has had a good TE aDOT, last week hitting 8.3. If you want a punt, I'd rather Williams over Hollins, as he seems to be the deeper threat, and I do believe Diggs (or Henry), would be my #1 pairing with Maye.
Just like Henderson, we have R. White without the starter Bucky in line for 80%+ of snaps. Unlike Henderson, he is over 6K, and has got to 20 opps just once in the 4 games without bucky. So I don't think he is a set it and forget it type of click for your lineups, but he should have a relatively safe floor, and do think he could be played --- I'll be underweight the field though. In Wk8 w/o Godwin/Evans, Egbuka had a massive 37.5% target share, with an 11 aDOT, those are alpha numbers, so even at 7K, he can be considered. Thing is I kind of like Tez as well, he had a 25% target share, with just a 7.5 aDOT, but he is just 4.5K --- imo both can be considered depending on roster construction. I believe Otton is a fine value play, with all these injuries, he is finally seeing targets for all the routes he runs, hitting 21% last game, but I think I'd rather pay down still to Henry/Dulcich --- having said that, I won't cross him off.
JAC@HOU
Jags have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Texans have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Lawrence has a great pressure rate situation, but a bad pass potential. Etienne has a good rush potential.
Mills has a good pressure rate situation. Chubb~ has a meh rush potential.
Jags TTR is 18th (meh).
Texans TTR is T-14th.
Pace of play is 7th (meh). O/U Rank is 9th (bad).
- I mentioned last week that Etienne is an interesting low exposure play, and man I wish I took some more stabs, although it was an OT game, he had 27 opps (5 targets) last week, I think the same could be said this week, if he gets 20+ opps, with a PPR floor, he can pay off at 5.7K, and the bonus is the matchup is tough, and nobody will be playing him again in tourneys --- not sure I will this week either though
. There are only 2.5K TE's left on JAC roster this week, while you can take a stab, you really should only consider it if Dulcich is going to be popular as a leverage off of him, I'm not doing it. Idk how much Meyers will be involved, but with no BTJ/Hunter, or TEs, you have to think they throw him out there. Now, I am not going to go overboard on this offense, in this matchup, and I don't mind Meyers, but Parker continues to show he can play when given a chance, and last week he hit 27% targets/9.3 aDOT, you can do much worse at 4.7K, if you prefer Dyami, that's fine too, but I'll have less of him.
Neither RB hit 50% of snaps last 2 weeks, they're getting cheap, but Chubb has no PPR floor, and Marks sees less touches, why play this with better situations elsewhere. Collins and Kirk both returned last week, and almost combined for a 50% target share. Collins was close to big time alpha status with a 28% share, and 13.45 aDOT, but he is still priced in the 6K range, and that says value to me. If you want some savings to go down to Kirk, that's fine, but the pace/total/etc, aren't one I want to get over exposed on. Schultz is very similar to Otton for me, we don't need to cross him off, but we won't have much of him either, he can get to 20%+ target share, but I'd almost rather go down to Henry, and his higher floor with no Boutte, or even further down to Dulcich.
Sunday 4PMs/Main Slate (Cont.)
ARI@SEA
Cards have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Seahawks have a meh P/RB matchup.
Knight? has a bad rush potential.
Darnold has a great pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential.
Cards TTR is 17th (meh).
Seahawks TTR is 5th (good).
Pace of play is T-8th (meh). O/U Rank is 7th.
- In 2 games with brissett and his complement of receiving options (taking out Wk6 MHJ concussion), McBride has an incredible 35% target share, with a good TE aDOT of 7.7, this looks to be unmatched at this position, and is why he is more expensive then the #2 priced TE --- nobody has his floor/ceiling combo, so if you can afford him, or don't need the salary savings at this position, feel free to go there. MHJ is really the only other consideration here, he has a 25% target share/14 aDOT, which is on its way to alpha status, but even if its not there yet, he is only priced at 5.3K and screams value imo. I'll pass on all other recieving options. Demercado is 4.5K, and looked to be the better back last week, he had 15 opps (just 1 target), but 1 TD, or even 70 total yards, 2 catches, and you aren't to upset, so I can see him as a salary saving option when mass entering (not going overboard, but as a one-off).
I've said it all year, but JSN is the #1 WR to me (sorry puka/chase), on the year he has a massive 38% target share, and an aDOT of 12.5 --- and Horton is doubtfull, Kupp is Q/banged up, Shaheed just got there --- I just don't see his utilization going down, if anything even higher (if that is possible). Despite listing all that, Shaheed may be forced into heavy action too, if we can get a game where ARI breaks some big plays or has a lead, we could both of these guys succeed, 5.2K price could be worth it. We can't touch this backfield in this timeshare, Walker/Charb had 13/9 opps last week, (only 3 total targets), they are both very cheap, and one could absolutely smash this salary, but I'm not going for it right now.
DET@WAS
Lions have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Commanders have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Goff has a meh pressure rate situation, but a great pass potential. Gibbs~ has a meh rush potential.
Mariota has a bad pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential.
Lions TTR is 2nd (great).
Commanders TTR is T-14th.
Pace of play is 10th (meh). O/U Rank is T-2nd (good).
- Gibbs was close to his season high in snaps but only had 12 opps (3 targets), in a pretty neutral to positive pass script, that worries me, especially as faves where he tends to be on the lower end of volume when playing with a lead. We know he can have slate breaking upside, but idk if I want to pay 8K for a possible <2X performance. The only passing options to consider here are ASB/Jam Williams/LaPorta, as they play 90-100% of snaps week in and out. Over the L3, ASB has a 36% target share/7.7 aDOT, and imo Goff and the passing Co. are in a good spot this week, so I will have shares of him where I can afford it. I like Williams/LaPorta a touch less, especially with a suppressed aDOT for Williams standards (9.1), but they are both priced in the 4K range, and when bigger game stacking, I will alternate between them. Pass on the rest.
Deebo screams value, and has a high floor/ceiling combo imo. He looks to be healthier as he has been, in Week 4 with Mariota and no McLaurin, he had a 25% target share/11.5 aDOT, and McCaffrey that game had a 12.5% target share that is now vacant as well. And last week with Daniels, but no Mclaurin/McCaffrey, he saw a 29% target share, on PPR sites, at priced in the 5K range, you can't do much better. Chris Moore for HR hunting, and Lane for a salary saving option --- again last week he hit 24% target share, is vaulted into a starting role, and near min price. Ertz always looks finely priced, but I'd rather pay down, or pay up here, so passing. Passing at RB.
LAR@SFO
Rams have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
49ers have a bad P/RB matchup.
Stafford has a good pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential.
Purdy? has a good pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential. CMC has a bad rush potential.
Rams TTR is T-3rd (great).
49ers TTR is T-8th.
Pace of play is 3rd (good). O/U Rank is T-2nd (good).
- Kyren feels like a low owned pivot option -- he is kind of priced in no mans land, and is coming off his first 20+ opp game, which is something he hadn't done in 4 weeks, but he also had 0 targets in that game, and despite 100+ rush yards and a TD, just barely 3x'd his salary. I'm 5050 on him. We love this offense because of the concentration, Adams/Nacua hit just 60/49% snaps because of a blowout and they still had a 48% target share, 15 total. They are both expensive, and I like some of the other big WRs, but if you like them, the pace, the total, the concentration are all there for them to have success. Pass elsewhere.
Jennings is like a cheaper version of what I said about Deebo above, in his L2 with a healthy kittle, and the same WRs missing, he had a 24% target share/13.25 aDOT, and he is only in the 4K range, that screams value. I don't love Kittles price yet as he is #2 overall TE, despite jsut an 18% target share/5.11 aDOT, we know he can blow up, but I think we can also do much better at the position. CMC had that dud game, and went right back to what we love --- 34 opps (6 targets), we can't say he is a lock for 23+ fps anymore, but we also can..... if you start by putting him in your roster and figuring out the rest, I get it. Passing elsewhere.
NOS@CAR
Saints have a good P/RB matchup.
Panthers have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Kamara~ has a meh rush potential.
Young has a meh pressure rate situation. Dowdle has a good rush potential.
Saints TTR is 20th (meh/last)
Panthers TTR is 10th.
Pace of play is 1st (good). O/U Rank is 8th (bad).
- I like the pace of this matchup, and the saints side is relatively cheap, but we can't really be game stacking this game, and I would reserve it for one-offs at best. Last week in Shoughs first full start, shaheed had a 37.5% target share/12.5 aDOT --- that's alpha status metrics, that now get passed on to the other players. Olave/Juwan had 16.67% target shares, and it is hard not to see each hit well into the 20s at the least. Now Olave feels a bit to expensive in the 6K range/tough matchup, but I undestand juwan at 3.7K a bit more... if you really want a salary saver, one of Vele/Cooks would be where I go. Backfield/QB, pass.
Dowdle got the word last week that he will be the guy, and he went right back to a 72% snap share, and hit 28 opps (3 targets), he is a league winner type back at this level, and at 6.3K he is to cheap in a projected positive pass script. In Youngs L3, all that were wins, they've really limited Youngs pass attempts, never exceeding 25 total, McMillan/Legette split in that game 22.5% targets each, even if he hits 25 pass attempts, that is just 5-6 targets max --- now if McMillan is out, I'll consider Legette as a one-off/salary saver.
BAL@MIN
Ravens have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Vikings have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Lamar has a bad pressure rate situation.
McCarthy has a meh pass potential.
Ravens TTR is T-3rd (great).
Vikings TTR is T-11th.
Pace of play is 11th (bad). O/U Rank is T-4th (good).
- Lamar comes back and 3.5x's his salary in a blowout win, and no rushing ability, that feels like a low end outcome honestly. The passing options weren't asked to do to much, but 22% target share/7.2 aDOT --- again which feels like a floor --- seems ok for a player in the 5K range, I even think Bateman is an option he led in aDOT last week, and played >70% of snaps and is in that 3K close to min price range. Only other guy I want to mention as a stacking option or one-off is Likely -- again -- he played the most among the 3 TEs, led in targets, and is near the min price range of TEs (2.5K) at 2.9K, 1 TD, or a 3-45-0 stat line, and I think you are already happy. You can always play Henry in tourneys when the field isn't, but again, I hate the no PPR floor, if it wasn't for the 100 yard bonus, he would have barely 2.4x'd~ this salary.
We took advantage of some cheap/low owned plays last week with MIN, I don't think they go low owned again in this matchup, but JJ had a massive 39% target share with MIN, he has WR1 overall ability in this matchup, and will be a part of a chunk of my lineups. Addison/Nailor I think can be alternated if bigger game stacking. Addison is practically an everydown WR, but had a big 25.5 aDOT, Nailor shared in his target share number (17%), and had a big aDOT too at 18.75, but plays a lot less. Howver, the differences are reflected in the price, and I think they are both viable options too. Hockenson feels like a no go, his only plus is he is cheap, but 13% target share/5 aDOT --- we can find better. I didn't mention it, but JJ is still 4.9K, despite 4x'ing this last week, and having an even better matchup this week, come on now. I won't fault you for playing Mason if Jones is out, but I think that is a matchup where I'll fade the high exposure -- if Jones wasn't dealign with an injury, I'd say he looked really good last week, and that this guys prices should be flipped, but I'll pass on both.
BUF@MIA
Bills have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Dolphins have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Allen has a great pass potential. Cook has a great rush potential.
Tua has a meh pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Achane has a good rush potential.
Bills TTR is 1st (great).
Dolphins TTR is 13th.
Pace of play is 14th (bad/last). O/U Rank is 1st (great).
- I know its RB vs MIA D strategy (which failed with Bijan not to long ago), but Cook has 2 total targets in his L4 games, he is starting to become a better version of Henry, but can we justify paying 7.5K for a guy that needs to go like 100+ 2+ to really slate break, I know that is possible in this game, but I don't want to jump in on this with the exposure he will have, as he can certainly fail as well... just last week he played 76% of snaps ,and had 28 opps, but he finished with just 16.5 fps, which barely 2x's this salary, not only that, but it is possible this game becomes more of a blowout, he had been dealing with an ankle injury all week, I am just going to fade. I know any of these WRs could blow up in any game, but they continue to disappoint, but none seem to be worth it minus Shakir --- only on full PPR sites --- since the bye (2 games) he does have a 31% target share, but that is accompanied with a 0.73 aDOT, you read that right. I think in tourneys where mass entering, Shavers at the min price could be worth a dart throw. The only other consideration I'd have is Kincaid, as he had a 9 aDOT since the bye, and an ok 19% target share, but he is the 4th most expensive TE, do we really love it? Not really.
This offense runs primarily through 2 people, especially post Waller/Hill, and that is Waddle/Achane. Achane continues to hover around, and even over, a 25% target share, which is unheard of for a RB, last week alone he had 10 targets, without the rushing upside, that is a great WR to click --- his aDOT was even better than Shakirs
--- I have no problems going him, as if they even want to be competitive, it will have to go through him. Waddle is the most expensive he has been, but he has solid metrics, and isn't really mispriced, but again, a 25%~ target share, and a double digit aDOT can get you places in tourneys. The only other player I'd consider is Dulcich, he was brought in very quickly 2 weeks ago, and have 5~ days of reps, in his 2nd game, he ended up with a 14% target share, an increased snap count, and he now had an additional 10 days to familiarize himself, he is $100 above the min price, and his direct backup, and only other TE really on the roster, is Q to play, I don't want to go overboard on a ton of dolphins, but he is glaring value.CLV@NYJ
Browns have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Jets have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Gabriel has a meh pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential.
Fields has a bad pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Hall has a bad rush potential.
Browns TTR is T-14th.
Jets TTR is 19th (meh).
Pace of play is 2nd (good). O/U Rank is 10th (bad/last).
- I weirdly have some interest in Gabriel at 4.4K, he 3x'd this salary last week with just 156 passing yards, and 2 turnovers, and now Jets let go of some of there best defensive players... I know they want to run Judkins, and I'll make sure to flip some roster construction if this fails, but I will be taking some shots with Gabriel and Co. Not only that, but he is getting a new playcaller in his ear, probably his best playmaker in Tillman should be returning, we have a bit more of a concentrated offense with the prior WR2 now out (bond), and even Fannin is Q, and any time of game stack, whether mini or a bit bigger, is SO cheap, as the WR1 (Jeudy) isn't even at 4K... min price is 3K.
Jets should be returning Wilson, if he suits up, in the 4 games he played with Fields this year, he had a 33% target share, and a 9.6 aDOT, those numbers should equate to some of the alphas, yet he is only 6.1K, yes please. I don't mind Hall either, he is fairly priced at 6K, the matchup is tough, but he should be in line for 20+ opps, and a ok ppr floor. To go along with the Wilson metrics, Taylor would be my only other bringback option, in those games with fields he actually had a 20% target share, with a decent TE aDOT of 7, but we can't play a ton of TEs, and I doubt I have much if any at all.
NYG@CHI
Giants have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Bears have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Dart has a good pass potential. Tracy~ has a good rush potential.
Williams has a great pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Swift? has a great rush potential.
Giants TTR is T-11th.
Bears TTR is T-6th (good).
Pace of play is 4th. O/U Rank is 6th (good).
- I'll start off by saying this is the worst weather game of the week, so I'll dampen my projections/exposure here. I'll start by saying I don't ;love the timeshare in the backfield, neither got to 11 opps. last week, and despite Tracy starting, Singletary outsnapped/touched him, I guess at 4.3K, that is ridiculously cheap, but we have found better value elsewhere, where I don't think we need it here. I would have loved Dart more in this matchup if it wasn't for the weather, but DK FINALLY --- as I have been saying it every week --- made him more expensive. He doesn't break the bank just yet, but it is something to note, especially when everyone sees his FP success, as well as an opponent D rank of 30th, I'll be underweight. In the first game without Skattebo, and with Rayray, all of the 3 WRs played 90%+ of snaps. Wandale had a big time 34% target share, and a 4.2 aDOT, Slaytons Metrics weren't that much worse, with a 22%/12.4 aDOT, but I don't want the guy who will have deeper throws in this weather, normally I'd say his price drop is worth it, but WanDale on PPR sites can get you there. TE Johnson is to expensive for me, but if you have conviction go for it. I would say RayRay is another week more comfortable with dart/the offense, he could be a dart throw/pivot off of the others punts and/or wandale to consider where mass entering.
If Swift is out, we obviously load up on Monangai, but if he is in, can we trust either? None of the offenseive weapons really jump off the board for CHI, and they are all active, the 4 WRs (Odunze>Moore>Zaccheaus>Burden) as well as the 2 TEs (Loveland>Kmet), the last time all 6 really played were weeks 6/7, and 1 person hit a 20% target share (Odunze), and 5 total people got over 10%. You can pick your poison with a one-off, or a bringback to pair with a player on the otherside, I guess I lean more to Odunze/Moore.
NEP@TBB
Pats have a bad P/RB matchup.
Bucs have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Maye has a bad pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential. Stevenson? has a bad rush potential.
Baker has a meh pressure rate situation. Bucky? has a meh rush potential.
Pats TTR is T-8th.
Bucs TTR is T-6th (good).
Pace of play is 12th (bad). O/U Rank is T-4th (good).
- Another week without Stevenson! Henderson last week hit 75% of snaps, 20 opps (6 targets), and he is still priced in the 5K range, yes please. I know Jennings stole the goal line TD, but Henderson had his chances first, and still screams value. We haven't had a full game without Boutte (or w/ Stevenson out too) but looking just at last week, Douglas and Henry were the target hogs, as both had a 21.5% share. Douglas accompanied it with a big 22 aDOT, now at 4K he looks valuable, and normally I'd say hammer, but he really doesn't play a lot of snaps for some reason, even with Boutte leaving early last week, he hit just 24%, I have concerns, and will be playing him very minimally. I think Henry, like Dulcich, is one of my favorite value plays, he is cheap for his usage, and has had a good TE aDOT, last week hitting 8.3. If you want a punt, I'd rather Williams over Hollins, as he seems to be the deeper threat, and I do believe Diggs (or Henry), would be my #1 pairing with Maye.
Just like Henderson, we have R. White without the starter Bucky in line for 80%+ of snaps. Unlike Henderson, he is over 6K, and has got to 20 opps just once in the 4 games without bucky. So I don't think he is a set it and forget it type of click for your lineups, but he should have a relatively safe floor, and do think he could be played --- I'll be underweight the field though. In Wk8 w/o Godwin/Evans, Egbuka had a massive 37.5% target share, with an 11 aDOT, those are alpha numbers, so even at 7K, he can be considered. Thing is I kind of like Tez as well, he had a 25% target share, with just a 7.5 aDOT, but he is just 4.5K --- imo both can be considered depending on roster construction. I believe Otton is a fine value play, with all these injuries, he is finally seeing targets for all the routes he runs, hitting 21% last game, but I think I'd rather pay down still to Henry/Dulcich --- having said that, I won't cross him off.
JAC@HOU
Jags have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Texans have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Lawrence has a great pressure rate situation, but a bad pass potential. Etienne has a good rush potential.
Mills has a good pressure rate situation. Chubb~ has a meh rush potential.
Jags TTR is 18th (meh).
Texans TTR is T-14th.
Pace of play is 7th (meh). O/U Rank is 9th (bad).
- I mentioned last week that Etienne is an interesting low exposure play, and man I wish I took some more stabs, although it was an OT game, he had 27 opps (5 targets) last week, I think the same could be said this week, if he gets 20+ opps, with a PPR floor, he can pay off at 5.7K, and the bonus is the matchup is tough, and nobody will be playing him again in tourneys --- not sure I will this week either though
. There are only 2.5K TE's left on JAC roster this week, while you can take a stab, you really should only consider it if Dulcich is going to be popular as a leverage off of him, I'm not doing it. Idk how much Meyers will be involved, but with no BTJ/Hunter, or TEs, you have to think they throw him out there. Now, I am not going to go overboard on this offense, in this matchup, and I don't mind Meyers, but Parker continues to show he can play when given a chance, and last week he hit 27% targets/9.3 aDOT, you can do much worse at 4.7K, if you prefer Dyami, that's fine too, but I'll have less of him.Neither RB hit 50% of snaps last 2 weeks, they're getting cheap, but Chubb has no PPR floor, and Marks sees less touches, why play this with better situations elsewhere. Collins and Kirk both returned last week, and almost combined for a 50% target share. Collins was close to big time alpha status with a 28% share, and 13.45 aDOT, but he is still priced in the 6K range, and that says value to me. If you want some savings to go down to Kirk, that's fine, but the pace/total/etc, aren't one I want to get over exposed on. Schultz is very similar to Otton for me, we don't need to cross him off, but we won't have much of him either, he can get to 20%+ target share, but I'd almost rather go down to Henry, and his higher floor with no Boutte, or even further down to Dulcich.
Sunday 4PMs/Main Slate (Cont.)
ARI@SEA
Cards have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Seahawks have a meh P/RB matchup.
Knight? has a bad rush potential.
Darnold has a great pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential.
Cards TTR is 17th (meh).
Seahawks TTR is 5th (good).
Pace of play is T-8th (meh). O/U Rank is 7th.
- In 2 games with brissett and his complement of receiving options (taking out Wk6 MHJ concussion), McBride has an incredible 35% target share, with a good TE aDOT of 7.7, this looks to be unmatched at this position, and is why he is more expensive then the #2 priced TE --- nobody has his floor/ceiling combo, so if you can afford him, or don't need the salary savings at this position, feel free to go there. MHJ is really the only other consideration here, he has a 25% target share/14 aDOT, which is on its way to alpha status, but even if its not there yet, he is only priced at 5.3K and screams value imo. I'll pass on all other recieving options. Demercado is 4.5K, and looked to be the better back last week, he had 15 opps (just 1 target), but 1 TD, or even 70 total yards, 2 catches, and you aren't to upset, so I can see him as a salary saving option when mass entering (not going overboard, but as a one-off).
I've said it all year, but JSN is the #1 WR to me (sorry puka/chase), on the year he has a massive 38% target share, and an aDOT of 12.5 --- and Horton is doubtfull, Kupp is Q/banged up, Shaheed just got there --- I just don't see his utilization going down, if anything even higher (if that is possible). Despite listing all that, Shaheed may be forced into heavy action too, if we can get a game where ARI breaks some big plays or has a lead, we could both of these guys succeed, 5.2K price could be worth it. We can't touch this backfield in this timeshare, Walker/Charb had 13/9 opps last week, (only 3 total targets), they are both very cheap, and one could absolutely smash this salary, but I'm not going for it right now.
DET@WAS
Lions have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Commanders have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Goff has a meh pressure rate situation, but a great pass potential. Gibbs~ has a meh rush potential.
Mariota has a bad pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential.
Lions TTR is 2nd (great).
Commanders TTR is T-14th.
Pace of play is 10th (meh). O/U Rank is T-2nd (good).
- Gibbs was close to his season high in snaps but only had 12 opps (3 targets), in a pretty neutral to positive pass script, that worries me, especially as faves where he tends to be on the lower end of volume when playing with a lead. We know he can have slate breaking upside, but idk if I want to pay 8K for a possible <2X performance. The only passing options to consider here are ASB/Jam Williams/LaPorta, as they play 90-100% of snaps week in and out. Over the L3, ASB has a 36% target share/7.7 aDOT, and imo Goff and the passing Co. are in a good spot this week, so I will have shares of him where I can afford it. I like Williams/LaPorta a touch less, especially with a suppressed aDOT for Williams standards (9.1), but they are both priced in the 4K range, and when bigger game stacking, I will alternate between them. Pass on the rest.
Deebo screams value, and has a high floor/ceiling combo imo. He looks to be healthier as he has been, in Week 4 with Mariota and no McLaurin, he had a 25% target share/11.5 aDOT, and McCaffrey that game had a 12.5% target share that is now vacant as well. And last week with Daniels, but no Mclaurin/McCaffrey, he saw a 29% target share, on PPR sites, at priced in the 5K range, you can't do much better. Chris Moore for HR hunting, and Lane for a salary saving option --- again last week he hit 24% target share, is vaulted into a starting role, and near min price. Ertz always looks finely priced, but I'd rather pay down, or pay up here, so passing. Passing at RB.
LAR@SFO
Rams have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
49ers have a bad P/RB matchup.
Stafford has a good pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential.
Purdy? has a good pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential. CMC has a bad rush potential.
Rams TTR is T-3rd (great).
49ers TTR is T-8th.
Pace of play is 3rd (good). O/U Rank is T-2nd (good).
- Kyren feels like a low owned pivot option -- he is kind of priced in no mans land, and is coming off his first 20+ opp game, which is something he hadn't done in 4 weeks, but he also had 0 targets in that game, and despite 100+ rush yards and a TD, just barely 3x'd his salary. I'm 5050 on him. We love this offense because of the concentration, Adams/Nacua hit just 60/49% snaps because of a blowout and they still had a 48% target share, 15 total. They are both expensive, and I like some of the other big WRs, but if you like them, the pace, the total, the concentration are all there for them to have success. Pass elsewhere.
Jennings is like a cheaper version of what I said about Deebo above, in his L2 with a healthy kittle, and the same WRs missing, he had a 24% target share/13.25 aDOT, and he is only in the 4K range, that screams value. I don't love Kittles price yet as he is #2 overall TE, despite jsut an 18% target share/5.11 aDOT, we know he can blow up, but I think we can also do much better at the position. CMC had that dud game, and went right back to what we love --- 34 opps (6 targets), we can't say he is a lock for 23+ fps anymore, but we also can..... if you start by putting him in your roster and figuring out the rest, I get it. Passing elsewhere.
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ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Sunday Night/Showdown Slate
PIT@LAC
Steelers have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Chargers have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Rodgers has a good pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential.
Herbert has a meh pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential. Vidal has a great rush potential.
Pace of play is T-8th (meh).
- Notes
PIT@LAC
Steelers have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Chargers have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Rodgers has a good pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential.
Herbert has a meh pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential. Vidal has a great rush potential.
Pace of play is T-8th (meh).
- Notes
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ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Monday Night/Showdown Slate
PHI@GBP
Eagles have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Packers have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Barkley? has a good rush potential.
Love has a great pass potential.
Pace of play is 13th (bad).
- PHI has had 5 games, weeks 3-7, with the squad in tact. In those guys, both Brown/Smith are fairly close in metrics, but Brown does everything slightly better and is only $200 more, as they are 29%/25% target shares, and 12.8/11 aDOTs --- I'll have both, but I'll lean mmore into brown. The offense as a whole is great because it is so concentrated --- almost 75% of all targets go to them 2 plus goedert, who had a respectable 20% target share, and good 9.2 aDOT, If you want to go for passing offense and avoid Barkley, I think you could possibly make it work with low price GBP options. Barkley is an intersting one, you don't typically want both him and Hurts in the same lineup (outside of last week), plus there's always a reaggravation risk, if mass entering, I wouldn't hate the idea of doing a lineup with him. If you want to HR hunt, Dotson, or TD hunt in Calcaterra, those would be the only other punt options to even consider, I will reserve them to the same idea as Bigsby for the most part.
Doubs is a little too cheap, in the L2 since Watson's return, he has a 23% target share/14 aDOT, he is probabbly the best receiving option, and despite Wicks possibly being back (and golden possibly missing) we have a 17% target share in Kraft that is now vacant too. We kind of have to take a wait and see approach, but Doubs/Watson > Wicks > Heath/Golden is how I have it/my share. Musgrave could very easily have 8+ targets tonight too if the script calls for it and he plugs right into that Kraft role, he'll be popular as he is relatively cheap, but he could be a guy you'd regret not having. Jacobs has quietly scored in all but 1 game this year, having multiple 2+ TD games as well, it is kind of why Love has been very range-y this year... there will be a game where GBP will have to keep pace, and Love will have an explosive game.... if that's this week, build it out like that, and take a few of these top end pass catchers, something like Love + Doubs/Watson/Musgrave (switching one of them for the Wicks/Heaths) could allow you to get 2 of the big dogs in PHI.
PHI@GBP
Eagles have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Packers have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Barkley? has a good rush potential.
Love has a great pass potential.
Pace of play is 13th (bad).
- PHI has had 5 games, weeks 3-7, with the squad in tact. In those guys, both Brown/Smith are fairly close in metrics, but Brown does everything slightly better and is only $200 more, as they are 29%/25% target shares, and 12.8/11 aDOTs --- I'll have both, but I'll lean mmore into brown. The offense as a whole is great because it is so concentrated --- almost 75% of all targets go to them 2 plus goedert, who had a respectable 20% target share, and good 9.2 aDOT, If you want to go for passing offense and avoid Barkley, I think you could possibly make it work with low price GBP options. Barkley is an intersting one, you don't typically want both him and Hurts in the same lineup (outside of last week), plus there's always a reaggravation risk, if mass entering, I wouldn't hate the idea of doing a lineup with him. If you want to HR hunt, Dotson, or TD hunt in Calcaterra, those would be the only other punt options to even consider, I will reserve them to the same idea as Bigsby for the most part.
Doubs is a little too cheap, in the L2 since Watson's return, he has a 23% target share/14 aDOT, he is probabbly the best receiving option, and despite Wicks possibly being back (and golden possibly missing) we have a 17% target share in Kraft that is now vacant too. We kind of have to take a wait and see approach, but Doubs/Watson > Wicks > Heath/Golden is how I have it/my share. Musgrave could very easily have 8+ targets tonight too if the script calls for it and he plugs right into that Kraft role, he'll be popular as he is relatively cheap, but he could be a guy you'd regret not having. Jacobs has quietly scored in all but 1 game this year, having multiple 2+ TD games as well, it is kind of why Love has been very range-y this year... there will be a game where GBP will have to keep pace, and Love will have an explosive game.... if that's this week, build it out like that, and take a few of these top end pass catchers, something like Love + Doubs/Watson/Musgrave (switching one of them for the Wicks/Heaths) could allow you to get 2 of the big dogs in PHI.
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Dobbins props are on the table although I'm not a huge fan of TNF bets. Too many variables.
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
I think he can get good yardage between the 20s, but I think he will have a hard time scoring unless he breaks a long one.
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Quick comments added, all done.
1 PMs
G. Dulcich Rec. Yds O20.5 -108
J. Jefferson Rec Yds O73.5 -111
E. Egbuka Rec Yds O69.5 -114
T. Henderson Rush&Rec Yds O71.5 -112
R. Dowdle Rush&Rec Yds O114.5 -111
C. Tillman Rec Yds O26.5 -109
G. Wilson Receptions O4.5 -142
N. Collions Rec Yds O65.5 -110
4 PMs
T. McBride Receptions O6.5 -135
JSN Rec Yds O99.5 -113
ASB Rec Yds O80.5 -114
D. Samuel Receptions O5.5 -111
CMC Receptions O5.5 -137
1 PMs
G. Dulcich Rec. Yds O20.5 -108
J. Jefferson Rec Yds O73.5 -111
E. Egbuka Rec Yds O69.5 -114
T. Henderson Rush&Rec Yds O71.5 -112
R. Dowdle Rush&Rec Yds O114.5 -111
C. Tillman Rec Yds O26.5 -109
G. Wilson Receptions O4.5 -142
N. Collions Rec Yds O65.5 -110
4 PMs
T. McBride Receptions O6.5 -135
JSN Rec Yds O99.5 -113
ASB Rec Yds O80.5 -114
D. Samuel Receptions O5.5 -111
CMC Receptions O5.5 -137
rambler882
2024 CTG Supporting Donation Member
DK Metcalf o49.5, 3u -112
Kimani Vidal o47.5, 3u -112
Chris Olave o54.5, 2u -112
Emeka Egbuka o71.5, 2u -112
Harold Fannin Jr. o33.5, 2u -112
Kyle Monangai o47.5, 2u -112
Nico Collins o64.5, 2u -112
Amon-Ra St. Brown o77.5, 1u -112
James Cook o84.5, 1u -112
Tetairoa McMillan o49.5, 1u -112
Trey McBride o62.5, 1u -112
TreyVeon Henderson rec o23.5, 1u -112
Matt Stafford o263.5, 1u -112
Caleb Williams rush o17.5, 1u -112
Justin Herbert rush o24.5, 1u -112
Kimani Vidal o47.5, 3u -112
Chris Olave o54.5, 2u -112
Emeka Egbuka o71.5, 2u -112
Harold Fannin Jr. o33.5, 2u -112
Kyle Monangai o47.5, 2u -112
Nico Collins o64.5, 2u -112
Amon-Ra St. Brown o77.5, 1u -112
James Cook o84.5, 1u -112
Tetairoa McMillan o49.5, 1u -112
Trey McBride o62.5, 1u -112
TreyVeon Henderson rec o23.5, 1u -112
Matt Stafford o263.5, 1u -112
Caleb Williams rush o17.5, 1u -112
Justin Herbert rush o24.5, 1u -112
2daBank
2024 CTG Supporting Donation Member
Love the Treyvon play. Gl bro