1PMs/Main Slate
DET/CHI
Lions have a great P/RB matchup.
Bears have a great P/RB matchup.
Goff has a great ASR matchup. Swift? has a great ALY push.
Fields has the worst ASR matchup. Montgomery? has a good ALY push.
Lions TTR is T-6th
Bears TTR is 3rd
Pace of play is 4th overall, 3rd in MS. OURank is 3rd.
- Injuries - DET - On D, There are only Q's. On O, WR Reynolds/RB Swift are Q. Keep in mind still no WR Chark/backupbackup RB Reynolds.
- CHI - On D, Could be getting LB Adams back. On OL, G Patrick out for 3rd week.
- I hate whats going on with swift (and so does my biggest yearlong fantasy league), he plays just 16% of snaps last week, and still got 50 total yards on 5 touches... the guys a beast, but we can't trust the production and it scares the shit out of me... maybe take him in a lineup if you're mass entering, as he should go low owned, and he's playing in a great matchup game with a great pace/OURank. Jamal on the other hand played 61% of snaps, which somehow was his highest of the season, they played with the lead throughout, and that made him have 0 targets, but he did get 24 opportunities, and if you think swift continues to see that kind of suppressed snap count, he is pretty cheap at 5.9K, but I get if you want to avoid the backfield entirely. In the hockenson-less lions era, St. Brown came in and saw a season high 97% of snaps, and had 9 targets in a game in which they led. I love him on sunday as he has slate breaking upside, and a solid PPR floor. If reynolds is out, Raymond was an everydown play too, with reynolds in, kennedy goes away, and him/raymond will be within the 80-90% range, someone will eat if St.brown doesnt. I read at TE they wanted to give Mitchell a shot, and Wright was Q going into the game, will wright played and saw 81% of snaps, yet he had 1 catchless target, Mitchell came in and play just 21% of snaps and had 2 caught targets and a TD. If he begins to see more playing time, and RZ opportunity, he could be a nice punt option at 2.7K.
I love what Fields has been doing, but he's seen a pay bump, and a slate possibly w/o Allen/Kyler makes him the 4th most expensive QB, and you know he's going to be over owned with how he's performed and the spot he's in... I think in tournaments I'm pivoting mostly, and will be underweight. Despite overcoming time and time again, he does still have the worst ASR matchup (atleast for the 3rd week in a row). Kmet continues to be an everydown TE, and he had 3 TDs in his last 2, but his aDOT/r is bad, and I don't want to rely on it. Same can kind of be said with Mooney, his aDOT/r was bad last week, but he had 8 targets, and his season long aDOT/r is decent at 8.5.... I think we may want some type of bring back if we are game stacking here. It's worth noting that Claypool, despite playing like 30% of snaps, saw 6 targets, he's cheap, and you'd assume both of those numbers can go up.
MIN/BUF
Vikes have a bad P/RB matchup.
Bills have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Allen has a meh ASR matchup. Singletary has a meh ALY push.
Vikes TTR is 14th
Bills TTR is T-4th
Pace of play is 1st overall/MS. OURank is 4th.
- Injuries - MIN - On D, CB Dantzler is doubtful.
- BUF - On D, S Poyer out for 2nd week, DE Rousseau is out, LB Edmunds is Q but hasn't practiced, CB White is Q, but coach said he's still not ready. On O, we may be without QB Allen.
- Cook continues to see ramped up snap counts compared to earlier this season, he went against a tough DLine team in WAS last week, and they were playing from behind for most of the 2nd half, yet he still managed 23 opportunities. With the defensive injuries, and if allen is out, I wouldn't be shocked at a more efficient 25+ opportunity game. Let's rinse and repeat my comments on the WRs here. Jefferson is an everydown player that sees a few more snaps and more targets than Thielen, but theilen is still involved and has a respectable aDOT/r too, and he's insanely cheaper.... both get over 1+ RZ targets a game. Osborn continues to see meaningful snaps, but he's now the 5th man on the totem pole, pass. Hockenson came in to a new team and immediately tied his season high in snap% at 91%, he had 9 targets to go with it. If they tell me allen is all systems go, I'll have me some hockenson, if not, I'll probably be underweight on this offense, but I'll have some shares.
We don't know what to do with this offense, we never liked the RB as they have a low floor, and you'd think hines would be a bit more involved as the season goes on, I don't care for knox's <4 targets/game, and not even at 1 RZ target a game, Having said that, we still do have alphas/slatebreakers in diggs/davis. Diggs has a great target share, sees plenty of field, and has a good aDOT/r. Davis is massively at 18.4 but is reserved for HR hits, as he has been pretty limited in overall catches, so he has a floor to him, but you can argue no WR minus Hill/Kupp has a bigger ceiling. In 3 of his 4 games where he had 3 or more catches (never has got to 5 yet...) he's finished in the top 18 IN PPR FORMATS, that's nutty. If allen is out, expect the ownership to be low.
JAC/KCC
Jaguars have a good P/RB matchup.
Chiefs have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Lawrence has a good ASR matchup.
Mahomes has a great ASR matchup. Mckinnon? has a bad ALY push.
Jags TTR is T-11th.
Chiefs TTR is 1st.
Pace of play is 3rd overall, 2nd in MS. OURank is 1st.
- Injuries - JAC - On D, CB Griffin is out for 4th week, S Jenkins is Q. On O, TE Engram is Q.
- KCC - On D, CB Sneed is Q. On O, still no TE Bell, and WR Hardman is Q, wasn't seen at practice friday.
- Etienne last 3 weeks, he's averaging over 25 opportunities, and 80% of snaps. They played in neutral or negative scripts for most of those games, and has just 3~ targets a game in those 3. Not terrible, but I'd like to see that higher, I actually have more interest in Lawrence, but there are scenarios where he takes the reigns. Why I like lawrence? He has a bit of a rushing floor, hes a decent sized road dog, should have some time in the pocket with a good ASR/DVOA matchup, oh, and he's extremely cheap. My biggest problem is I seem to target the wrong Jag pass catcher every damn week. M. Jones has steadily seen his snap count drop, and the last 3 weeks he hasn't even hit 60%, pass. Z. Jones sees almost everydown work now, more than Kirk, in his last 3 weeks, he's averaging a steady 6 targets a game, ok, not a bad option and I definitely prefer him over Marvin. However, in that same timeframe, Kirk is almost at 9 targets a game, for a solid 26% target share, and an ok aDOT/r of 8.1, to go along with a RZ target/g, I'll probably have him mostly, with some Zay. Engram is Q, I guess if he doesn't play, you can get Arnold at the minimum price in a game with a fast pace, and top OURank, but manhertz/farrell see playing time too, so idk.
NOS/PIT
Saints have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Steelers have a meh P/RB matchup.
Dalton? has a great ASR matchup, Kamara has a good ALY push.
Najee has a meh ALY push.
Saints TTR is T-11th.
Steelers TTR is 17th.
Pace of play is T9th overall, 6th in MS. OURank is 9th.
- Injuries - NOS - On D, no CB Roby for 3rd week, CB Lattimore is doubtful, LB Werner is Q despite not practicing, S Maye didn't practice thursday either and is listed as Q. On O, Ingram is Q but not seen at practice, and Landry is Q.
- PIT - On D, no CB Witherspoon (after returning last week), still no CB Jackson either, BUT it's possible LB Watt will be returning w/o a snap count.
- Kamara only had 13 opportunities last week, but saw his season high 88% of snaps last week, that's pretty reliable, as they were down 2+ possessions before halftime. Still, if Ingram returs, I can see him going back to the 60-70% role, and the matchup isn't great (with a terrible OURank), and the possible return of Watt. Olave continues to dominate the target share on this team, reaching 32.1% in last weeks game, He's averaging 9 targets/g on the season with a good aDOT/r of 11.9, he's mid ranged, and may be going up against a still banged up secondary. I like it. Johnson has steadily seen 75%~ of snaps last 4 weeks, he's still pretty cheap too, idk if I'll go there, but you could definitely do worse.
Friermuth has seen his snaps come down post injury, but even still, in the 6 games he's finished, he's had at least 7 targets 5 times with a decent TE aDOT/r of 7.6, I don't hate him here, he's also cheaper than the tier 2 hock/ertz of ther worlds (and much cheaper than kelce). What do we do with Najee, his priced has laughably dropped, he's cheaper than the Singletarys/Mattison/Benjamin/M. Gordon/Helaire's of the world... like what? There's also rumors swirling that Warren will have more of a role.... Najee may go less than 1% owned, and with like a 5 catch day + 2 TDs, could vault you to a big payday, even if you do it in just 1 lineup, as you'll be overweight the field... I think I'm going too. I probably won't have pickens, just because Diontae does what he does but with a much bigger target share, and there prices aren't that drastically different, but I guess you can go preference if you go here (I won't have much exposure either way). Keep in mind claypools 17%~ of targets will be dispersed to these pass catchers too.
HOU/NYG
Texans have a good P/RB matchup.
Giants have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Jones has a bad ASR matchup. Barkley has a great ALY push.
Mills has a good ASR matchup, Pierce? has a good ALY push.
Texans TTR is 18th.
Giants TTR is T-8th.
Pace of play is 11th overall, 7th in MS. OURank is 6th.
- Injuries - HOU - On D, some Q's. On O, WR Cooks/Collins are Q.
- NYG - On D, DE Williams is out, S McKinney is out, CB Flott/LB Ximines are Q. On OL, T Neal is out, G Bredeson out for 2nd week. On O, TE Bellinger is still out, Shep is obviously out, and Toney is gone, Golladay is expected back.
- If Cooks/Collins are out, Dorsett/Moore become expected points over price value options, both played over 70% of snaps last week and had 24% target share each. So wait and see approach there. Houston continues to play 3 to 4 TEs a game, pass. B2B weeks, both with negative game scripts, Pierce still saw 78% of snaps, however in those 2 games he averaged just 2.5 targets... Don't like that floor. But overall, since week 2 to now, he's averaging 23 opps. a game, and is in a good matchup, I quietly think they play with a lead too, which helps boost his ceiling in my eyes. He has an injury designation, and is the 13th priced RB, he could go low owned....
In every game but 1 (where he went to the sideline for a bit to check an injury out), Barkley has hit over 80% of snaps. CMC is the only back to do that minus his game 1 in SFO. He's averaging almost 25 opps. a game, 4+ of which are targets, and he's up against Houston, who on JUST the ground, let philly backs go 22-120-2, titans go 40-302-2, raiders go 21-145-3 the last 3 weeks, in 4 weeks ago in a loss the jags went 21-104-0. Barkley is the most expensive back for a reason this week, and can obviously be played. I'll probably be underweight the field, as I said I think houston plays with a lead/wins, but barkley can still get his, and there's obviously a more realistic path for him to be more like the other backs the past 3 weeks than what I see. With no Bellinger, Hudson was a 72% snap guy, and had 5 targets with an aDOT/r of 7, that's pretty decent, and he's $100 above the bare minimum. None of the giants WRs are out 5 targets/g average, and now golladay is returning. Not sure I want much of it, but if you want to one-off, or do a D. Jones game stack if you want to hedge bigger on barkley failing, go for it.
CLV/MIA
Browns have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Dolphins have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Brissett has a great ASR matchup.
Browns TTR is T-6th.
Dolphins TTR is 2nd.
Pace of play is 13th overall, 9th in MS. OURank is 2nd.
- Injuries - CLV - On D, LB Koramoah is out, LB Philips is out for 2nd week, but they are returning DE Winovich. On O, no TE Njoku. On OL they may be returning G Teller, who's one of their best.
- MIA - On D, S Jones is out for 3rd week, CB Needham for 4th week, On OL, Eichenberg out for 2nd week.
- First things first, Peoples-Jones is WAY to cheap on DK at 4.3K, the guys had over 10 FPs in 4 of his last 5 games and thats with 0 Tds. He's playing in the 2nd highest OURanked game, and Brissett has a great P matchup, to go along with a great ASR matchup, he plays slightly more than cooper, and no Njoku means more targets to be dispersed too. Now the same kind of argument can be said for cooper, he's just a bit pricier, he does see more targets, but both have good aDOT/rs of 11.2/11.3, and both have been seeing RZ targets lately, I like them both, and I'll be pairing them with Brissett, but DPJ is one-off material too. IF Bryant is out, I'll probably pass at TE, if he's in, he does become a punt candidate. 4 of his 6 games he's seen at least 4 targets, and all of those games included Njoku. At RB, Chubb and Hunt are in a 55/45 split still.... Hunt has seen 16 opps. once, for his most this season, but has been below double digits twice as well... Idk if I can pay for 11~ touches, when less than 3 of them are targets. Chubb only gets 2 targets a game himself, but he's averaging almost 21 opportunities/g with a massive 5.6 YPC, He's a slate breaker, and I won't argue if you want to play him, but he has the tougher matchup, and I'm much more interested in the passing on this side, so I won't have much exposure really.
Oh man, just when I really started to like Mostert, they bring Wilson in and they are right back into a 5050 split. they're both cheap, and have some big play ability, but they both only got 12/11 opportunities each, and idk if I want to bank on one having a multi Td game, and either failing, or pick the wrong one. Pass. With TE Smythe back, Gesicki went back into the fantasy hole, as they both were only targeted twice, in 6 games with both playing Gesicki has been below 3 targets 4 times, and hit 4 twice... PASS. This is where the fun begins with the Dolphins, we have 2 alphas in Hill/Waddle that soak up the targets, and have slate breaking upside. On the season they have a combined 55% target share, and aDOT/rs over 10. Hill is averaging 11 targets a game to waddles 8~, but waddle does have more than double the RZ targets, both are playable in any slate, will be my bringbacks.
DEN/TEN
Broncos have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Titans have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
L. Murray? has a bad ALY push.
Willis? has a bad ASR matchup, Henry has a great ALY push.
Broncos TTR is 20th (last).
Titans TTR is 13th.
Pace of play is 14th overall, 10th in MS (last). OURank is 10th (last).
- Injuries - DEN - On D, LB Browning is out for 3rd week, S Sterns out for 4th week, On OL, Cushenberry is out for 2nd week. On O, WR Hamler is out, WR Hinton is Q, TE Beck is out.
- TEN - On D, LB Cunningham is out, LB Dupree is out, S Hooker is out for 2nd week, backups S Thompson is out, DT Simmons is out, jesus. On O, Tannehill is Q.
- Juedy/Sutton have some one-off appeal, they both see meaningful snaps, are now without Hamler, and possible Hinton, and already see 7-8 targets a game with good aDOT/rs. I'm strictly using them for one-offs as they're cheap, underdogs, and going against a banged up middle of the field in TEN. Pass at RB as we don't know what it even is, edmonds now there too. At TE, and to be included in the one-off conversation, is TE Dulcich. In 3 games of playing, he's averaged almost 6 targets a game with a good TE aDOT/r of 9.2, he hit 80% of snaps last game, which was 9th highest at TE that week.
Pass at TE, when they can, they play 3, pass at WR if Willis is in, as they don't throw it, if Tanny is in, I probably still don't want it but you can talk me into a punt of Ikhine or something. Lets get to the real conversation, despite playing from behind and seeing a season low 59% of snaps, Henry hit 100+ yards rushing on just 17 carries, he now gets a much more favorable matchup, and one where they are faves.... If you can afford him, go for it.
4PMs/Main Slate
IND/LVR
Colts have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Raiders have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Taylor? has a bad ALY push.
Carr has a meh ASR matchup.
Colts TTR is 19th.
Raiders TTR is T-8th.
Pace of play is 6th overall, 4th in MS. OURank is T-7th.
- Injuries - IND - On D, LB Leonard is out, DE Lewis out for 2nd week, DE Paye is Q. On O, RB Jackson is out, TE Woods is out, Cox is Q.
- LVR - On D, LB Deablo is out, LB Martinez is retiring, LB Perryman is Q despite not practicing, CB Hobbs out for 4th week. On O, no TE Waller, or WR Renfrow.
- Taylor is coming back from injury, again, post week 1, he's failed to get over 16 PPR FPs yet, and has failed to even get to double digits in 3 of those 5 games. He's still top 6 in price at RB, he has a bad ALY push, a bad TTR, and he could easily fall in the 55-65% snap range, I can't trust it unfortunately. We've now seen Ehlinger in a negative, and positive game script, and neither were exciting, to give him some benefit though, this is by far the best matchup he's had of the 3, and is finally not in the bottom 10 in ASR matchups. So he may actually have some time in the pocket. In those 2 games, Pittman has commanded a 30% target share, which equates to 7.5 targets/g, but with just a 4.5 aDOT/r. Pierce is the opposite, less targets but a big aDOT/r of 15.3... Campbell is the worst of both, low aDOT/r, and low targets, pass on him. If you want to dart throw a cheap pierce and hope for a home run hit, you could, or if you want to take a ppr safe floor in pittman, thats fine too. I guess if Cox is out with Woods, Granson may be the sole TE, but I'm not interested in that, and we already have cheap punts mentioned above.
I don't want to count jacobs out, he's had 20+ opps in 4 of his last 5 games, but I want to limt my expectations and hope he kind of fails just for 1 more week. Colts, despite being trounched, still had the pats RBs to 25-69 statline, even the prior week was a 17-45, Henry is the only back to go over 100+ rushing yards on them. Adams already had a big target share on this team, and last week he stamped it with a 47.2% share, and garnered 17 targets. He again has no waller, and now no renfrow, would it shock anyone to see a 10+-100+-1+ stat line? I think it's easily doable. Hollins unfortunately had just 4 targets last week, but he still should see an uptick in targets, and would be a pivot off of him but idk how much or if i'll go there again.
DAL/GBP
Cowboys have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Packers have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Dak has a good ASR matchup, Pollard? has the best ALY push.
Rodgers has a meh ASR matchup. Dillon? has a good ALY push.
Cowboys TTR is T-4th.
Packers TTR is T-15th.
Pace of play is 7th overall, 5th in MS. OURank is 5th.
- Injuries - DAL - On D, CB Lewis out for 2nd week, LB Barr is Q, hadn't practiced. On O, RB Zeke is Q.
- GBP - On D, CB Stokes is out, LB Campbell out for 2nd week, LB Gary is out, LB Barnes is doubtful. On O, no WR Doubs, obviosuly WR Cobb is out, WR Rodgers is Q.
- Dallas, please rest Zeke another week... thanks. Either way, I want this RB squad, I guess if Zeke is in, I may get pollard at lower ownership, but the cowboys have been stubborn in the past in using him less with zeke in, despite being much more efficient. In his game without Zeke, Pollard play just 53% of snaps, but they had a 2+ possession (even 3+ at times) throughout the game, and a defensive td (which keeps the offense off), and he still managed to get 147 yards on just 15 opportunities. Sign me up. Hats off to Dak in that game too, despite not being in a competitive match throughout, and that defensive score, he still managed 250 passing yards, a solid 34 rushing yards, and 3 tds (with 1 int), and finished as the QB4 that week, idk if both can co-exist week to week, and the RB matchup is much better than the P one, but there are defensive holes on the defense and the WRs have paths to success. With Brown coming back, it's Lamb than everyone else (aka Gallup/Brown). He has a huge 32% target share of the offense, and has quietly had a consistent season despite having cooper rush in 5.5~ games and an extremely neutral to negative game script in practically every game but 2. The argument here is price/ownership.... getting an 80%+ snap guy on a team with the 4th highest TT, and is in the 4k range isn't bad (Gallup/Brown), There are only a couple of other guys I like more in that area.
Aaron Jones is playing, and I've seen so many times people come back quick from an injury in the leg and reinjury, or don't play as much... I can't trust the 8th most expensive back who's been in a semi timeshare this season with my dollars, nor can I trust the backup (dilon) either. Barring no setbacks, I expect this to be 60-40 MAX, which is unfortunate because Rodgers does target his backfield 7+ times/g in the passing game, and they're are expected to play from behind, but I'm not probably not backing either here. Watkins/Watson can be cheap WR2s on GB, but I still go back to Lazard, he's still not expensive, has over a 20% target share in the 7 games (7 targets/g) he's played, a solid aDOT/r of 9.8 on the season, sees RZ targets, I want him the most for the game stacks/bringbacks.
ARI/LAR
Cards have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Rams have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Conner? has a meh ALY push.
Henderson? has a bad ALY push.
Cards TTR is T-15th.
Rams TTR is 10th.
Pace of play is 12th overall, 8th in MS. OURank is T-7th.
- Injuries - ARI - On D, a ton of Q's. On OL, still no Garcia/Hudson/Pugh, , now no Hernandez. They only have TWO week 1 starters in, and and 3 of the guys have 1 to 3 starts on there belt this season, ouch.
- LAR - On D, DT Gaines is doubtful. On OL, still no Shelton/Noteboom/Edwards, Jackson is doubtful, and Allen is Q. If Allen plays, they also only have 2 week 1 starters in, and may have 2 to 3 guys with min 1 to max 4 full games of play this year. On O, RB Williams expected to be activated.
- Jesus christ, I trust the defensive lines against these offensive lines in both of these matchups. Which tells me to avoid the offenses at all costs. I would love to know the true health of kyler before committing here, if he can't scramble, it'll be a long day, if he can, I have some interest, as he will be making moves out of the pocket often. Conner came back from injury and played 71% of snaps, good, he only had 12 opportunities though but 5 were targets, so there's some type of floor, and he'll need it if you go that route. I'm not playing an expensive hopkins/ertz this week given the circumstances. I think Moore at 5.2K can be considered his last 2 games he's averaging 9 targets per, but know he does catch verry shallow routes (which could be a boost if kyler needs to get the ball out quick).
I'm not taking the rams even more muddled backfield and terrible ALY push/OL issues. If stafford also isn't fully healthy, idk how much exposure I want to this offense anyways... Kupp is really the only guy you do want, but you pay the absolute premium for him, higbee is getting cheap enough to where if he gets his early season numbers, he will more than pay it off, but I'm not sure I want to trust it, 2 of his last 3 games he didn't even get to 3 targets.
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