DFS/Props Superbowl Weekend

[ScopeY]

I know props tend to get fun for the superbowl, so figured I'd get this up as soon as possible.

But like usual, getting the template down.

KCC/PHI

Chiefs have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Eagles have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
The ASR D Avgs are actually a lot closer than people may have realized, and KCC technically on top (8.3% to 8%).
The ALY/Oline push is very close, and KCC technically on top (4.68 yards to 4.57).
Pace of play, both teams are in the top 3 when in neutral situations (PHI 1st, KCC 3rd), Both teams are in the top half in secs/play (PHI 9th, KCC 14th).

- Injuries - KC -
- PHI -

- Showdown slate discussion later.

Have at it!

 

[2daBank]

Both these teams a pain in the ass prop wise. Philly run game has 3-4 different guys getting touches, kc pass game outside kelce it damn near impossible to figure out who gonna get targets. Hindsight I remember talking bout if I was cincy I’d dare MVS to beat me, maybe I shoulda took that as a hint to play MVS! Lol

 

[wiseplayer]

Eagles RB matchup is meh? Maybe I’m misunderstanding but KC run D gives up 6.0, while Philly O is 4.7 a carry.

 

[ScopeY]

Eagles RB matchup is meh? Maybe I’m misunderstanding but KC run D gives up 6.0, while Philly O is 4.7 a carry.

Not in front of it right now but the DVOA vs the R is somewhere between 9th - 16th best.

 

[2daBank]

Eagles RB matchup is meh? Maybe I’m misunderstanding but KC run D gives up 6.0, while Philly O is 4.7 a carry.

They average giving up 6ypc on season? There no way that right is it? If that was the case they woulda been in chargers category where I was looking to play RB props vs them every week! They can’t be giving up more than 5ypc on average can they?

 

[wiseplayer]

They average giving up 6ypc on season? There no way that right is it? If that was the case they woulda been in chargers category where I was looking to play RB props vs them every week! They can’t be giving up more than 5ypc on average can they?

I just realized I was looking at postseason stats. They gave up 4.4 for the season. Still pretty poor.

 

[B.A.R.]

Bumpity bump prop players

 

[B.A.R.]

Good thread.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1622632302244204544

 

[Timh]

Big question is will the Chiefs really give an honest effort to running the football early in the game, and not just the cute extension plays on the edge? I think if they do, it would really open up things for their passing game. I'm convinced they can run on Phil if they really give it a shot.

 

[Vapster]

An anonymous former Gatorade executive was quoted in an article published by The Athletic on Monday, stating there are up to "three coolers with different flavors" on the sidelines and that the winning bath is "intentionally randomized." That would make it quite a coincidence that over the last eight Super Bowls, blue Gatorade was the only color dumped when Tom Brady won, and all the other winners poured out a hue that matched their team colors.

If we believe the Chiefs will continue to store orange electrolytes in their coolers and the Eagles will do the same with Lemon Lime Gatorade, we can execute a potential Super Bowl freeroll in the following manner:

Let's say you want to bet 100 bucks on the Gatorade bath prop. Place $46 on yellow/green at +275, $43 on orange at +300, and $11 on "no Gatorade bath" at +1400 as a hedge (this has happened twice in the last decade). If one of these three hit, your profit will be $72.50 on yellow/green, $72 on orange, and $65 on the absence of a Gatorade bath.

 

[Vapster]

Currently at BetMGM, you can bet on whether the opening kickoff will result in a touchback. Yes is a sizable favorite at -165 odds. If you think the kickoff will be returned, you can bet no touchback at +130 odds. Those odds are pretty spot-on when it comes to normal kickoffs, as -165 odds implies a 62.3% chance of something happening.

However, the Super Bowl is a different story. Last season, Evan McPherson booted the opening kickoff through the end zone for a touchback. However, that was just the third time in 21 years that the opening kick wasn't returned. Eighteen times in the last 21 years, "no touchback" was the winning side of this bet.

Pat McAfee is now one of the biggest names in sports media, but before becoming a standout on-air talent, he was one of the most talented punters in the NFL. He punted and kicked for West Virginia in college. In the NFL, he punted and was a kickoff specialist for the Indianapolis Colts. He kicked in one Super Bowl.

Two years ago on his show, McAfee addressed this very situation.

“There isn’t normally a touchback on the opening kickoff because the ball is a brand-new ball, it’s basically just plastic. Most balls that you kick have been rubbed down for 30 minutes by your equipment manager and the other team’s equipment manager in the presence of an NFL official and it’s beat up a little bit ... the Super Bowl kickoff ball, that ball goes immediately to the Hall of Fame right after the kick, so it is not beat to hell and back for 30 minutes by an equipment manager. It’s very difficult to kick a touchback," McAfee said.

It certainly makes sense. The data backs up the idea that kicking a touchback is a lot harder to do on the Super Bowl's opening kick than it is any other time. McAfee has experience on this stage and there are few qualified to offer better insight. It makes sense to me. At +130 odds, I'm going to take another shot on "no touchback" on this year's opening kickoff.

 

[2daBank]

Im liking kc, kc team total over, then a mix of mahomes pass yarfs, Pacheco rush+rec, kelce and tomey td I’ll make 2 sgp out of that.

 

[B.A.R.]

Im liking kc, kc team total over, then a mix of mahomes pass yarfs, Pacheco rush+rec, kelce and tomey td I’ll make 2 sgp out of that.

Yarfs!

 

[2daBank]

Yarfs!

Go figure my fucking genius phone that loves to argue w me bout certain words can’t be bothered to correct that for me!

 

[2daBank]

I took 1st qrtr ov 9.5 pretty big.

Toney to score a td

Pacheco ov rush yards

Mahomes over passing yards

Kc tt over 23.5

I really didn’t want to get involved w many players the way both these teams spread the ball around.

 

[2daBank]

Toney getting +265 to score felt like insane value. Assuming he stays healthy all game they have a nice package of plays for him in red zone and you know eagles gonna be paying all kinds of attention to kelce! Plus toney has ability to catch or run one in. Better than 2.5 to 1 feels like one the better values on board. Maybe I should got real greedy and went 1st td since odds are he be hurt by halftime, lol

 

[Timh]

Scope love to hear your props today but if not thanks again for your incredible threads all year. They are an incredible asset to handicapping when considering the pace, matchups.

 

[2daBank]

Scope love to hear your props today but if not thanks again for your incredible threads all year. They are an incredible asset to handicapping when considering the pace, matchups.

2nd this, my favorite nfl thread!!

 

[2daBank]

I hope a lot of you guys don’t disappear after this and be strangers over the summer! I love capping baseball more than any other sport and would love to see some you guys around!! We got the world baseball classic less than a month away to kick things off, should be fun! I never bet that before!

 

[2daBank]

Pretty sure it was @ScopeY who turned me on to what turned out to be one my fav Mlb bets last year, 1st 5 team totals!! I love the way those lines are very generic with dogs almost always at 1.5 and favs generally at 2.5. Very exploitable!!

 

[B.A.R.]

I took 1st qrtr ov 9.5 pretty big.

Toney to score a td

Pacheco ov rush yards

Mahomes over passing yards

Kc tt over 23.5

I really didn’t want to get involved w many players the way both these teams spread the ball around.

What's juice on that TT?

 

[2daBank]

What's juice on that TT?

I think it was around -145, I didn’t notice cause I put in sgp

 

[B.A.R.]

I think it was around -145, I didn’t notice cause I put in sgp

Gotcha, thanks.

 

[ScopeY]

Scope love to hear your props today but if not thanks again for your incredible threads all year. They are an incredible asset to handicapping when considering the pace, matchups.

Man I haven't had time to write up and take care of things

I'm on

MVS rec over.
Goedert Receptions over
Mckinnon rush under

I appreciate the words and glad you use to help! Even if it's 1/100th of what I type

 

[ScopeY]

I hope a lot of you guys don’t disappear after this and be strangers over the summer! I love capping baseball more than any other sport and would love to see some you guys around!! We got the world baseball classic less than a month away to kick things off, should be fun! I never bet that before!

nhl/ncaab (obviously tennis) . I'll do mlb post april~

 

[ScopeY]

Pretty sure it was @ScopeY who turned me on to what turned out to be one my fav Mlb bets last year, 1st 5 team totals!! I love the way those lines are very generic with dogs almost always at 1.5 and favs generally at 2.5. Very exploitable!!

I like it! 1st 5s are the best

 

[Timh]

Scope enjoy the game man, thanks.

 

[peelpub94]

Toney getting +265 to score felt like insane value. Assuming he stays healthy all game they have a nice package of plays for him in red zone and you know eagles gonna be paying all kinds of attention to kelce! Plus toney has ability to catch or run one in. Better than 2.5 to 1 feels like one the better values on board. Maybe I should got real greedy and went 1st td since odds are he be hurt by halftime, lol

great call

 

[2daBank]

great call

Thanks buddy, for a game I didn’t really feel super confident in turned out really nicely, damn mahomes yardage kept me from hitting a sgp worth a few k, go figure they score 38 and he don’t throw for 200! Besides that tho everything went pretty well.