BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
Cleveland -3.5
Detroit is 7-0 ATS to the Dog their last 7 games, 11-0-1 ATS to the Dog their last 12 games.
Last season, there were 14 instances of teams having the Dog cover 6 straight games or more.
Of those 14 instances, 1* went onto grow to 8 games in size - 7.1%
*that sole instance involved the LA Clippers facing Seattle at home when they didnt want the higher seeding spot for the playoffs, so they rested 3 starters and basically threw the game (easiest Dog ml I, and plenty of others, ever cashed). Further to this result, their previous game (the 7th straight Dog cover), they had actually played Seattle on the road as the Dog and without resting those starters won that game SU. LA lost their next game as the Dog, so the streak ended. Reality suggests that if LA had needed that home game vs Seattle re: playoff implications, they certainly wouldnt have lost it SU, which leaves the potential ATS result there up to question.
So the only run to break the 7 game barrier came because the Fav wanted to lose the contest.
Now, here are the contexts for each of those runs occurrences
Run ....... Part of Overall run of ... Preceded by .......... Followed by
7-0 ........ 24-10-1 to the Dog ...... 16-5 to the Fav ...... 3-1 to the Fav
7-0 ........ 7-0 to the Dog ............ 5-1 to the Fav ........ 2-0 to the Fav
7-0 ........ 7-0 to the Dog ............ 10-1 to the Fav ...... 3-0 to the Fav
7-0 ........ 8-1 to the Dog ............ 6-2 to the Fav ........ 3-1 to Fav
7-0 ........ 7-0 to the Dog ............ 6-0-1 to the Fav ..... 6-0 to the Fav
7-0 ........ 7-0 to the Dog ............ 4-1 to the Fav ........ 1-0-1 to Fav*
7-0 ........ 10-2 to the Dog .......... 7-1 to the Fav ........ 5-1 to the Fav
7-0 ........ 9-2 to the Dog ............ 6-3 to the Fav ........ 5-0 to the Fav
7-0 ........ 8-0 to the Dog ............ 10-3 to the Fav ...... 1-1 to the Fav*
6-0 ........ 7-1 to the Dog ............ 6-0-1 to the Fav ..... 2-1 to the Fav
6-0 ........ 6-0 to the Dog ............ 5-1 to the Fav ........ 4-0 to the Fav
6-0 ........ 10-2 to the Dog .......... 7-2 to the Fav ........ 4-1 to the Fav
6-0 (x2).. 16-3 to the Dog ........... 11-2 to the Fav ...... 2-1 to the Fav
The red run the LAC run.
* season ended after these games
Whats most noticable about the context of these lengthy Dog runs of results, is that they were all stat corrections themselves. Looking at the results which preceded those runs, all were to varying degrees heavily biased towards the Fav - this relates back to the general principle of the trend thread I keep here: short term imbalanced expression of results, leading to long term balance. If you combined those Dog runs with what preceded each of them, the highest difference between either side is 4 games (3 times), the slimmest difference is an equal number (twice). So these dog runs arent *coming out of nowhere* from a statistical POV, their occurrence has an underlying context. And when those runs have ended, the Fav just hasnt reappeared in a miniscule way (I have provided the following Fav results up until those runs encountered the 2nd Dog result, or 2 connected Dog results after the initial Dog run being highlighted ended).
So, what is the context of Detroit's 11-0-1 run? prior to those 12 games, the Fav went 8-2, leaving the overall combined figure now at 13-8-1 to the Dog. At 5 games differential, thats now higher than any differential highlighted in the table above, prior to the return of the fav results.
So its not only at 7-0 that Detroit is begging for a stat correction, but also at having a 5 game differential when cojoined with the run of opposite results that occurred beforehand.
Over this same run, Detroit itself has only gone 4-7-1, so their form is hardly riveting (over the 7-0 period, 4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS). With their next, and last, game prior to Xmas being at home to Atlanta (who I think will be off a win vs Indiana, and will be in a B2B situation vs Detroit's rest), I see the schedule circumstances in place to deliver what the statistical indicators are ready for: that Fav cover to break this streak.
Of course I start this chase with a small bet.
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As an addtional quirk, of all the TNT games this season to date, there has not been 1 combination of a Fav-Under result: the last 3 TNT games have been Dog-Over combinations. Needless to say I have a lean on Under in tonights game
Detroit is 7-0 ATS to the Dog their last 7 games, 11-0-1 ATS to the Dog their last 12 games.
Last season, there were 14 instances of teams having the Dog cover 6 straight games or more.
Of those 14 instances, 1* went onto grow to 8 games in size - 7.1%
*that sole instance involved the LA Clippers facing Seattle at home when they didnt want the higher seeding spot for the playoffs, so they rested 3 starters and basically threw the game (easiest Dog ml I, and plenty of others, ever cashed). Further to this result, their previous game (the 7th straight Dog cover), they had actually played Seattle on the road as the Dog and without resting those starters won that game SU. LA lost their next game as the Dog, so the streak ended. Reality suggests that if LA had needed that home game vs Seattle re: playoff implications, they certainly wouldnt have lost it SU, which leaves the potential ATS result there up to question.
So the only run to break the 7 game barrier came because the Fav wanted to lose the contest.
Now, here are the contexts for each of those runs occurrences
Run ....... Part of Overall run of ... Preceded by .......... Followed by
7-0 ........ 24-10-1 to the Dog ...... 16-5 to the Fav ...... 3-1 to the Fav
7-0 ........ 7-0 to the Dog ............ 5-1 to the Fav ........ 2-0 to the Fav
7-0 ........ 7-0 to the Dog ............ 10-1 to the Fav ...... 3-0 to the Fav
7-0 ........ 8-1 to the Dog ............ 6-2 to the Fav ........ 3-1 to Fav
7-0 ........ 7-0 to the Dog ............ 6-0-1 to the Fav ..... 6-0 to the Fav
7-0 ........ 7-0 to the Dog ............ 4-1 to the Fav ........ 1-0-1 to Fav*
7-0 ........ 10-2 to the Dog .......... 7-1 to the Fav ........ 5-1 to the Fav
7-0 ........ 9-2 to the Dog ............ 6-3 to the Fav ........ 5-0 to the Fav
7-0 ........ 8-0 to the Dog ............ 10-3 to the Fav ...... 1-1 to the Fav*
6-0 ........ 7-1 to the Dog ............ 6-0-1 to the Fav ..... 2-1 to the Fav
6-0 ........ 6-0 to the Dog ............ 5-1 to the Fav ........ 4-0 to the Fav
6-0 ........ 10-2 to the Dog .......... 7-2 to the Fav ........ 4-1 to the Fav
6-0 (x2).. 16-3 to the Dog ........... 11-2 to the Fav ...... 2-1 to the Fav
The red run the LAC run.
* season ended after these games
Whats most noticable about the context of these lengthy Dog runs of results, is that they were all stat corrections themselves. Looking at the results which preceded those runs, all were to varying degrees heavily biased towards the Fav - this relates back to the general principle of the trend thread I keep here: short term imbalanced expression of results, leading to long term balance. If you combined those Dog runs with what preceded each of them, the highest difference between either side is 4 games (3 times), the slimmest difference is an equal number (twice). So these dog runs arent *coming out of nowhere* from a statistical POV, their occurrence has an underlying context. And when those runs have ended, the Fav just hasnt reappeared in a miniscule way (I have provided the following Fav results up until those runs encountered the 2nd Dog result, or 2 connected Dog results after the initial Dog run being highlighted ended).
So, what is the context of Detroit's 11-0-1 run? prior to those 12 games, the Fav went 8-2, leaving the overall combined figure now at 13-8-1 to the Dog. At 5 games differential, thats now higher than any differential highlighted in the table above, prior to the return of the fav results.
So its not only at 7-0 that Detroit is begging for a stat correction, but also at having a 5 game differential when cojoined with the run of opposite results that occurred beforehand.
Over this same run, Detroit itself has only gone 4-7-1, so their form is hardly riveting (over the 7-0 period, 4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS). With their next, and last, game prior to Xmas being at home to Atlanta (who I think will be off a win vs Indiana, and will be in a B2B situation vs Detroit's rest), I see the schedule circumstances in place to deliver what the statistical indicators are ready for: that Fav cover to break this streak.
Of course I start this chase with a small bet.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
As an addtional quirk, of all the TNT games this season to date, there has not been 1 combination of a Fav-Under result: the last 3 TNT games have been Dog-Over combinations. Needless to say I have a lean on Under in tonights game
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