Derby 2025

CPA-hole

CPA-hole

Narduzzi Gives Me Second-Hand Embarrassment
Feel free to post anything Derby related here. Comments, questions, picks, whatever.

If you'd like pps for Friday or Saturday, just dm your email and I'll send them to you.
 
What do you think Journalism will go off at? Guessing 3/2 or so with that gate and the other two that theoretically can compete are so far outside of him. Seems more chalky than typical.
 
KJ said:
What do you think Journalism will go off at? Guessing 3/2 or so with that gate and the other two that theoretically can compete are so far outside of him. Seems more chalky than typical.
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2-1 I think is the lowest he would be. I'm thinking he'll close at 5-2.
 
I still think Sandman will close as 2nd favorite. Too much public money on him, being a gray, the Metallica angle, and his part owner social influencer, who I have no idea wth he is, probably drop him below Sovereignity.
 
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Sandman is +850 at the sportsbooks now. I think he he's 5-1 maybe 6-1 on Saturday.
 
Journalism looks like the goods to me. But he has to still negotiate 19 other horses, when he's been used to running vs 4 and 5 others, with a relative inexperienced jockey in terms of Derby mounts.

I'm probably just going to wheel him on top with a few and hope for some prices underneath.

If Baeza draws in, that could change the race imo.
 
I'm on the two Asmussen horses ...Just like last year backing the hall of fame trainer without a Derby win might be profitable..... Tiztastic looks like the better of the two , but I'll be playing both in the Oaks/Forrester/Derby pick 3 and in the exotics ....

Not sure if anyone was any thoughts on this ???


Can't imagine backing any chalk in a 20 horse field
 
DOUBLEUP4LIFE said:
I'm on the two Asmussen horses ...Just like last year backing the hall of fame trainer without a Derby win might be profitable..... Tiztastic looks like the better of the two , but I'll be playing both in the Oaks/Forrester/Derby pick 3 and in the exotics ....

Not sure if anyone was any thoughts on this ???


Can't imagine backing any chalk in a 20 horse field
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Seriously Tiztastic is my long shot horse. I kind of crap on Sandman and his propensity for getting into trouble and he finally found a race last time that got so strung out, he couldn't help but find a perfect trip.

Tiztastic is the same kind of horse. He has to have a perfect trip, because to me, he doesn't have the turn of foot these others do. Meaning if he gets stopped, he can't recover from it.

But if he manages to stay clear, like last time in the Louisiana Derby, he can win this. The distance will be no issue.

I know the others beat him in Arkansas and he probably didn't beat much in NOLA, but I definitely think he can win.
 
Some H2H matchups I like

Publisher over Owen Almighty
Publisher over Render Judgment
Chunk of Gold over Owen Almighty

These are all -115 now on BetUS. Only concern now is an off-track.
 
CPA-hole said:
Weather forecast isn't looking good.
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Yeah looking like 50-70% chance of rain all day ....
I've done well with mudders here and there on Derby day ... Probably backing out of the pick 3 with the race 11 Forrester thou ...Wonder how many will opt out of the 12 horse field ..Was planning on the all button there thou
 
Lost in the Oaks/Derby hoopla, is reigning Horse of the Year, Thorpedo Anna runs on the Friday Oaks undercard. I will be playing Raging Sea to try and upset TA.

Horse I'm looking at in the 2nd race Friday iss Pletcher first time starter, #5, Endorse. She's been working well with the highly regarded, Disruptor.
 
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CPA-hole said:
Lost in the Oaks/Derby hoopla, is reigning Horse of the Year, Thorpedo Anna runs on the Friday Oaks undercarriage. I will be playing Raging Sea to try and upset TA.

Horse I'm looking at in the 2nd race Friday iss Pletcher first time starter, #5, Endorse. She's been working well with the highly regarded, Disruptor.
Click to expand...


I'm with you on Raging Sea , love the Brown Prat combo ...Hope we get the ML 9/2 or better ...

I'll have to cap that 2nd race ...So far I've only worked race 5 and on ... Intrigued by that 8-1 on endorse at first glance
 
DOUBLEUP4LIFE said:
I'm with you on Raging Sea , love the Brown Prat combo ...Hope we get the ML 9/2 or better ...

I'll have to cap that 2nd race ...So far I've only worked race 5 and on ... Intrigued by that 8-1 on endorse at first glance
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She won't be 8-1. But maybe catch her in the daily double. Cox filly in there is intriguing. She's been the workmate for Good Cheer.
 
CPA-hole said:
Weather forecast isn't looking good.
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The forecast has gotten worse each day. Tomorrow there will be a lot of rain throughout the day. Luckily we will be under cover.

Thanks for the debate on this, I've done zero research. Going to do a little digging today.
 
Two Utes said:
The forecast has gotten worse each day. Tomorrow there will be a lot of rain throughout the day. Luckily we will be under cover.

Thanks for the debate on this, I've done zero research. Going to do a little digging today.
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Have fun and stay dry. Yeah, it looks bad for tomorrow.
 
wiseplayer said:
Tell us about the 3 horse in race 2 if you get a chance. GL!
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Love Brad Cox as a trainer. I liked her 1st race. Think she'll love the added distance being by City of Light. Gets blinkers. And I love the fact she is Good Cheers workmate in the morning.
 
Well that didn't work. 1 probably should've won if Mott didn't put a bug girl on her. She just ran off with her and my horse is chasing her too close. Whatever. On to the next.
 
Gonna try a shot with Most Wanted #5 here in the 6th. See if he can go wire to wire. Worth a flyer.
 
CPA-hole said:
Lost in the Oaks/Derby hoopla, is reigning Horse of the Year, Thorpedo Anna runs on the Friday Oaks undercard. I will be playing Raging Sea to try and upset TA.

Horse I'm looking at in the 2nd race Friday iss Pletcher first time starter, #5, Endorse. She's been working well with the highly regarded, Disruptor.
Click to expand...
Great trip by Prat

Guy is en fuego
 
She Feels Pretty is just a different animal. Gimme A Nother ran well, just no match.
 
Two Utes said:
#2 was strong down the stretch, the jockey possibly waited a little too long
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The 8 horse did a good job of keeping the 2 boxed in and not letting her get out. A better trip and maybe she gets closer to the winner, but She Feels Pretty was just better.
 
This 9th race I have no clue on. Looks like this could be a race that pays.
 
I'm liking the Asmussen horse in this one but who knows how the track's going to play in a half hour
 
Seriously there's no reason to have the post time of the 8th at 3:12 and the 9th at 4:07. I get an hour between posts before the Derby or Oaks, but this 9th could've been run already.
 
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