December Bowling

[mrpickem]

Bowl Record: [0-0 0.0u]

• 204 UL Lafayette +3 +100
• 205 Arizona State/Fresno State Over 53½ -107
• 206 Fresno State -5½ -103

 

[B.A.R.]

Alright, good luck mista

 

[mrpickem]

Bowl Record: [1-2 -1.03u]
1-2 Saturday

Thursday:

• 216 South Florida +3½ -105
• 216 South Florida +160 (.75u)

USF started w/7 straight wins and have now lost their last five. Of those five games UCF, Temple, and Cincinnati were all good teams, they played Houston when they weren't sucking but the loss to Tulane was pretty ugly. USF played better as the season went on, but just ran into better teams.

Also, there is a different coach calling plays today. The OC has been awful this season and any knowledgeable observer knows it. They've had plenty of time to adjust to the new OC and should be healthy again.

Bulls will play on their home field tonight at Raymond James after torrential rains for close to 24 hours by game time. I know USF doesn't fill their stadium on regularly and I don't think that will change tonight. However, I do believe that they will put up a fight on their home field and at worse lose by a field goal. They've lost 6 straight but only 2 of were home, I think they'll want to make a statement at home one last time. I doubt they'll allow Marshall to come in and push them around tonight.

Another tidbit, in the last 10 years when a dog covers, they win the game outright 74.3% of the time. This year is a weird year so far in the fact that out of the first eight games, all of the favorites have won while only one (Georgia Southern) didn't cover the spread. I have a feeling that ends tonight.

Lastly teams that have lost at least 5 of last 7 going into bowl game cover 65% of the time

View attachment 36538

 

[booksbestfriend]

I would imagine the stadium will be filled. Non-sold tickets will be given to the local community. Will be a "Strong" contingent there.

See what I did there? Patting myself on the back.

 

[mrpickem]

Bowl Record: [1-4 -2.78u]
0-2 Thursday...that was neat

• 220 Western Michigan +10½ -105
• 219 BYU/Western Michigan Under 51½ -102

The Cougars just blew a 20 point lead in their last game, allowing 28 unanswered to lose to Utah. This is the biggest game of BYU's season, and I don't see them overcoming that heartbreak and having the motivation to play in the damn Potato Bowl. Plus WMU has above average offense (30 more passing yards per game then the opposing defenses, 15 more rushing yards, 2 more ppg), and BYU has a very solid defense (40 less passing yards per game than the opposing offenses, 40 less rushing yards, 7 less points). That doesn't mean they are going to get shut out. WMU should still get 200 yards in the air and ~150 on the ground, which is good for around three TDs. Hell, even if they under perform and score two, BYU would still need to put up 27 to cover, which their offense (15 less passing yards per game then the opposing defenses, 10 less rushing yards, 2 less points) shouldn't do vs an average WMU defense.

 

[mrpickem]

Bowl Record: [1-6 -4.78u]
0-2 Friday...neato

• 231 Minnesota +6 -105
• 233 TCU +108
• 233 TCU/California Under 19½ -105

These shitbird bowls just haven't got me excited this year..worse matchups in a long time imo. I have not put in the work. I do like several starting around the 1st

 

[mrpickem]

Bowl Record: [4-6 -1.83u]
3-0 Wednesday...about time

• 237 Miami Florida 2nd Half -2½ -105

 

[booksbestfriend]

Your threads are becoming a must view. Thank you!

 

[mrpickem]

well that went south in a hurry :shocked:

• 240 Baylor Under 26½ -110 (team total)
• 239 Vanderbilt -4 -105

No Jalen Hurd and I don't see them getting over this number or staying with a FG. Love this TT spot on the plus side of the key number of 24. Baylor offense is not what the national persona of the Big 12 is, nor is it anything like the Art Briles outfit they ran in the past.

 

[Mitur Binisdirty]

That ass! Good luck

 

[B.A.R.]

That ass! Good luck

+1

 

[HUNT]

Smack it

 

[mrpickem]

Bowl Record: [4-9 -4.83u]
0-3 Thursday... :curse:

• 241 Auburn/Purdue Over 59½ -101
• 242 Purdue +3½ -102
• 243 Syracuse -3 -117

AUB does not want to be in this game. Purdue does. They beat their rival Indiana to get to this game and now they get to face an SEC school that has a good name. Malzahn is trash, 1-4 in bowl games. Expect some screens to Ryan Davis, some jet sweeps to Schwartz and a disciplined defense. Auburn will havewell scripted first/second drives and then it’ll be tough. Tiger D is solid but they are banged up and if PUR can handle pass rush they should score often. The Boilers have a very high ceiling as seen vs OSU this year. Stidham will have to exploit the the PUR secondary, you aren't going to win this game running the ball. That has to go out the window, but somehow I don't see Gus backing that angle enough. Hate I got on over so late after it has steamed up 5.5 points from open...but just cant see anything else.

No Grier = fade WV...no other way to stack this one up

Probably will by on ISU later tonight an I believe they will be more motivated..although has Leach ever had hi team motivated in bowls..his record is like 1-12 I think

 

[mrpickem]

Bowl Record: [6-10 -3.89u]
2-1 Friday

• 246 Nevada -118
• 249 Florida +4½ -105
• 249 Florida +177
• 249 Florida +3 -105 1st Half
• 249 Florida/Michigan Under 24½ -105 1st Half

I think Mullen will have Gators fired up for this bowl game. I'm talking...beating LSU type energy. I think Franks' confidence is as high as ever because of the past 3 games. Plus key Michigan players sitting out, and this seems to be smart play. Franks can still fuck it up, but we can also count on Harbaugh to choke

 

[mrpickem]

added

• 249 Florida/Michigan Under 51 -109

 

[SIGO]

Good luck, pick.

 

[mrpickem]

tempted to hedge but dont see it

• 249 Florida/Michigan Under 24 +100 for 2nd Half

LETS GO. :whoohoo2:

 

[mrpickem]

• 256 Clemson -10½ -108

Irish overrated imo and Dabo will make sure they are exposed

 

[mrpickem]

like bama but not fond of 14.5 so may look for in-game

• 253 Oklahoma/Alabama Under 80½ -105

 

[mrpickem]

7-2 saturday :assshake:

• 257 Virginia Tech +5½ -105
• 259 Pittsburgh U +4 -105
• 263 Missouri/Oklahoma State Over 72 -105
• 264 Oklahoma State +9 -105

 

[mrpickem]

recap
Bowl Record: [13-12 +1.42u]
7-2 Saturday

Finally got my head above water..gravy from here

:cheers3:

 

[SIGO]

:cheers3:

 

[mrpickem]

• 261 Michigan State/Oregon Over 46 -105
• 262 Oregon +1 -110

 

[mrpickem]

• 265 Northwestern +6½ -105
• 265 Northwestern/Utah Under 43 -103

 

[mrpickem]

• 267 NC State +7½ -105

 

[mrpickem]

Bowl Record: [18-16 +2.18u]
5-4 Monday

• 272 Penn State -5½ -105
• 274 Central Florida +7½ -105
• 273 LSU/Central Florida Under 57½ -102
• 276 Ohio State -6½ -103

 

[mrpickem]

• 278 Georgia Over 35½ -113
• 277 Texas U/Georgia Over 60 -105
• 278 Georgia -12½ -108

 

[mrpickem]

Got killed on new years day...somehow managed 0-7 :violin2:

Everyone seems to be on Clemson and under as lines have mover around 2 points on both even though SI claim 50% money each way on points and 68% on over 56-57. I can see it starting slow so I'm taking under 1H and likely coming back with over 2H. I think Saban is trying to make his players think they are expected to lose...if they do lose they are 2-2 with CLEM in champ game which is just not good enough in bama. I'm gonna lay the points and if bama jumps out I may take some CLEM ML as insurance, this kid Lawrence is very good and I'm sure he's gonna make some plays(mostly 2H IMO)

• 152 Alabama -5½ -108
• 152 Alabama 1st Half -3 -115
• 151 Clemson/Alabama 1st Half Under 27½ -107

Someone else's writeup, but he almost sold me on Lawrence > Tua rush yards...almost

There is a underdog prop that I really like. Wanted to bring discourse to this: Trevor Lawrence more RUSHING YARDS than Tua Tagovailoa +100
Rationale:

• Tua is hampered by an ankle injury that limits his mobility. Over the last two games, he has -21 rushing yards (Georgia) and 9 rushing yards (Oklahoma) when dealing with this injury.
• Trevor Lawrence has not had a negative rushing yard day in his last nine contests. Obviously - for those that have watched Lawrence - he isn't lighting up the world with a meager 15 rush yard/game. But, Tua has three negative rushing yardage games over his last nine contests, averaging 9.3 on the ground.
• For those unaware, sacks count in an individual's rushing totals at the college game. Both of these teams have fantastic offensive lines and fantastic defenses (Clemson 1st in Sacks, 19th in Sacks Allowed; Alabama is 5th in Sacks and 10th in Sacks Allowed)
• To touch on the sacks again, Lawrence gets rid of the ball in 2.1 seconds after the snap on average, the quickest rate in college football. HOWEVER (to touch on both sides of the argument), Lawrence did go down three times against Notre Dame after taking only two sacks in his previous six games. That totals Lawrence going down five times over the last seven games, while Tua has been sacked eight times in his last seven (twice against Georgia, none against Oklahoma).

To sum up, based on the stats over the last nine games and factoring in Tua's ankle injury, it's surprising to me Lawrence is a dog in this. I would view this as more of a pick 'em. Both of these two have solid athleticism but are true pocket passers. Both have great offensive lines, playing against great defenses. It all comes out as a wash overall, except when you factor in the ankle injury, then I believe you have to take a shot on Lawrence in this with him being the underdog.