December 2016

[hugh613]

YTD: 66-71-1, -14.32

Thursday:

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12/1/2016 10:35 PM NBA Basketball 711 Houston Rockets/Golden State Warriors* Over 229½ -110 *2 UNITS*

 

[hugh613]

October: 10-9-1, +0.10
November: 56-62, -14.42

 

[hugh613]

*This is what happens when you manage the impressive feat of dropping 11 in a row... And just as an FYI, I booked that this morning, hence the deviation from the current line (the way I've been running, probably won't even matter...)

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

12/1/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 707 Orlando Magic/Memphis Grizzlies* Over 95½ -110 for 2nd Half *2 UNITS*

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 67-72-1, -14.52

Friday:

<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/EFEmTsfFL5A" allowfullscreen="" width="480" height="320" frameborder="0"></iframe>

12/2/2016 8:35 PM NBA Basketball 516 San Antonio Spurs* -9½ -110 vs Washington Wizards *2 UNITS*

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 67-73-1, -16.72

Saturday:

<iframe width="480" height="320" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Pw-0pbY9JeU" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

12/3/2016 7:35 PM NBA Basketball 706 Toronto Raptors* -8½ -110 vs Atlanta Hawks *2 UNITS*
12/3/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 710 Memphis Grizzlies* -2½ -110 vs Los Angeles Lakers *2 UNITS*
12/3/2016 10:35 PM NBA Basketball 718 Golden State Warriors* -16½ -110 vs Phoenix Suns *2 UNITS*

 

[hugh613]

*I'll keep with the increased unit size until I get back into single digits (whenever that might be). Might make a play on the Blazers later on as well (we'll see how the first two go).

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 70-73-1, -10.72

Sunday:

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12/4/2016 6:05 PM NBA Basketball 502 Detroit Pistons* -7½ -110 vs Orlando Magic *2 UNITS*

 

[hugh613]

Not sure this is a good thing, especially with Ish Smith playing fairly solid in his absence...

Detroit Pistons ✔ @DetroitPistons ICYMI, @Reggie_Jackson will start and play limited minutes tonight! #DetroitBasketball

6 pm tip on @FOXSportsDet Plus and @1051thebounce pic.twitter.com/FGXJWEDkhS

<time class="dt-updated" datetime="2016-12-04T16:21:22+0000" pubdate="" title="Time posted: 04 Dec 2016, 16:21:22 (UTC)">11:21 AM - 4 Dec 2016</time>

:chin:

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 70-74-1, -12.92

Adding:

12/4/2016 7:05 PM NBA Basketball 503 New Orleans Pelicans/Oklahoma City Thunder* Under 106½ -110 for 2nd Half *2 UNITS*

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 71-74-1, -10.92

Monday:

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12/5/2016 7:05 PM NBA Basketball 701 Denver Nuggets/Philadelphia 76ers* Over 209½ -110 *2 UNITS*
12/5/2016 7:35 PM NBA Basketball 707 Washington Wizards/Brooklyn Nets* Over 218½ -110 *2 UNITS*
12/5/2016 8:35 PM NBA Basketball 717 Charlotte Hornets/Dallas Mavericks* Under 193½ -120 *2 UNITS*

 

[hugh613]

*Very tempted to play the under in Houston (8 straight unders H2H) with Boston being one of the few teams in the league that can neutralize the Rockets from 3. Also thinking about the over at Oracle, but there's a good chance I fall asleep before tip off (yeah, yeah), so we'll see how the first three go...

 

[nbafan88]

that nets over looks good

 

[hugh613]

Thanks nba. Thought about just taking the Wizards team total, but Washington hasn't exactly been stellar on defense as of late either. Plus, pretty much every trend on the matchup page on Covers points over, so... Just hope it's a high enough scoring 1H in case the Nets pull their usual disappearing act in the 3rd.

 

[emkee]

GL tonight Hugh.

 

[Hulu]

GL Hugh.

I took the under in Houston. My numbers put it at 209 to 216.

 

[BJPLAYER]

gl hugh

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

12/5/2016 10:35 PM NBA Basketball 721 Indiana Pacers/Golden State Warriors* Over 223½ -110 *2 UNITS*

*Figures the only one of my games with consistent scoring throughout is the under...

Thanks emkee, Hulu and BJ.

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 73-76-1, -11.32

Tuesday:

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12/6/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 507 Philadelphia 76ers/Memphis Grizzlies* Under 194½ -110 *2 UNITS*

 

[hugh613]

*Was really trying to move away from betting unders this month, but without much to choose from tonight (the Pistons in the ESPN spot made for a compelling case a few days ago, but Reggie Jackson being inserted back into the starting lineup seemed to disrupt their rhythm, so no go on that), this seemed like the best spot out there.

Sixers with the dreaded B2B / 3 IN 4 / 4 IN 5 / 5 IN 7 and travel from Philadelphia, Grizzlies with B2B / 3 IN 4 / 5 IN 7 plus 2OT and travel from New Orleans, as well as continuing to play with an 8 to 9 man rotation due to various injuries. Joel Embiid and Jahlil Okafor out for Philadelphia, Memphis 3-7 O/U at FedEx (Philadelphia 4-2 on the road) and three good under umps (as tuck likes to say) for this one (Marat Kogut 5-10 O/U, Jason Phillips 5-15 O/U, Michael Smith 8-7 O/U).

My only real issue with this one is that it's likely to be one of those games I dread from a totals perspective (a team will score 32 points one quarter, then score 16 the next), but so long as they can keep each other in check the 1H, think fatigue should bring the scoring down in the 2H.

Might be on the Jazz later on as Utah should be able to roll on that Suns defense. Hopefully I'll be in position to turn a profit for a change as opposed to juicing out for the nth time this month.

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

12/6/2016 9:05 PM NBA Basketball 511 Phoenix Suns* Under 98 -110 vs Utah Jazz *2 UNITS*
12/6/2016 9:05 PM NBA Basketball 512 Utah Jazz* -6½ -110 vs Phoenix Suns *2 UNITS*

 

[hugh613]

*Don't think I'll make it back home before the game starts, so might as well post up now...

Anyways, much like with OKC last night, this line is either an early X-Mas gift or a total trap, because 8.5/9 would make a whole lot more sense than the current 6.5 (think the public's over estimating George Hill's importance to the line). With regards to the team total, PHX have put up that number once in their last eight against the Jazz. Their ORtg over their last 5 games ranks 27th in the league at 102.2, so given the fact that the Jazz rank dead last in the league in pace at home this season (and seemingly every other season), and have held opponents to an average of 92.4 PPG in their 5 B2B's so far, think about the only chance the Suns have would be to race out to a big lead and impose the pace on Utah. As for the spread, the Jazz playing about as well as anyone in the league right now, so don't think they'll have too many problems with a Suns team they beat handily in all 4 matchups last season.

 

[BJPLAYER]

gl hugh....excellent writeups

 

[tuck321]

Adding:

12/6/2016 9:05 PM NBA Basketball 511 Phoenix Suns* Under 98 -110 vs Utah Jazz *2 UNITS*
12/6/2016 9:05 PM NBA Basketball 512 Utah Jazz* -6½ -110 vs Phoenix Suns *2 UNITS*

The Jazz play as a side looks better. Suns play very uptempo pace. Game over looks good Suns usually do stink it up on 2 days rest 2-11 ATS last 13 but then it gets complicated

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 75-77-1, -9.52

Wednesday:

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12/7/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 710 Houston Rockets* -13½ -110 vs Los Angeles Lakers *2 UNITS*
12/7/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 713 Portland Trail Blazers/Milwaukee Bucks* Over 214½ -110 *2 UNITS*
12/7/2016 8:35 PM NBA Basketball 715 Sacramento Kings* -2½ -120 vs Dallas Mavericks *2 UNITS*

Thanks BJ and tuck.

 

[Tito]

lets get that Rockets play....gl

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 78-77-1, -3.52

Thursday:

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12/8/2016 9:05 PM NBA Basketball 511 San Antonio Spurs* -2½ -120 vs Chicago Bulls *2 UNITS*

Thanks Tito.

 

[hugh613]

*Well, I won't go so far as to say I've managed to turn the corner but, obviously, things are looking a little better now than they did a few days ago. Also, as I've proven myself to be one of the most maddeningly inconsistent posters here, think it's probably a good idea to start scaling things back a little as there's undoubtedly a bad run lurking around the corner. To that extent, going to follow the emkee model and play just the one game for the next little while (that experiment should last a grand total of one or two nights, LOL). First up, what looks to be the most 'obvious' play on the board as the Spurs are now 13-0 on the road to start the season (8-4-1 ATS), up against a struggling Bulls team. Admittedly, the Spurs haven't been overly kind to me this season (although most of that is thanks to their inefficient play at home), and who knows what tomfoolery Popovich has up his sleeve, but with pretty much an auto win on deck Saturday in Brooklyn, think they bring the heat in this one.

 

[Metallica]

BOL tonight Hugh.

 

[BJPLAYER]

only good things to come hugh....gl

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 78-78-1, -5.92

Friday:

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12/9/2016 10:35 PM NBA Basketball 717 Phoenix Suns/Los Angeles Lakers* Over 217½ -110 *2 UNITS*

Thanks Metallica and BJ.

 

[Metallica]

BOL tonight Hugh.

 

[Tito]

havent looked at the one yet...gl buddy

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 79-78-1, -3.92

Saturday:

<iframe width="480" height="320" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/XleOkGsYgO8" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

12/10/2016 7:05 PM NBA Basketball 505 Portland Trail Blazers/Indiana Pacers* Over 218½ -110 *2 UNITS*

Thanks Metallica and Tito.

 

[hugh613]

*Will also be on the Magic 2H team total under later on, which should come in at around 49 based on the current line...

 

[hugh613]

*Just as an FYI, the reason behind the Magic team total under: a) Denver's 1H/2H defensive splits their last 5: 58.0, 49.8, -8.2, b) Orlando's 1H/2H offensive splits their last 5: 53.8, 46.6, -7.2 and c) the Magic in the dreaded B2B / 3 In 4 / 4 In 5 / 5 In 7 - legs should start to give out in the 2H, one would think (and hopefully the Nuggets keep putting it to them so we get some garbage time from the bench in the 4th quarter).

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

12/10/2016 7:05 PM NBA Basketball 502 Orlando Magic* Under 50½ -110 vs Denver Nuggets for 2nd Half

*Hmm, usually not a good sign when it opens above or below the original projection, so just going to play it for one unit seeing as how the Blazers total looks to be in good shape. See you guys tomorrow.

 

[Tito]

gl hugh :cheers3:

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 80-79-1, -3.02

Sunday:

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12/11/2016 6:05 PM NBA Basketball 701 Philadelphia 76ers* Under 48 -110 vs Detroit Pistons for 1st Half
12/11/2016 6:05 PM NBA Basketball 701 Philadelphia 76ers/Detroit Pistons* Under 103 -110 for 1st Half
12/11/2016 7:05 PM NBA Basketball 705 Golden State Warriors/Minnesota Timberwolves* Under 224½ -110

Thanks Tito.

 

[hugh613]

*No Sergio Rodriguez for the Sixers, so that should put the brakes on an already punchless Philadelphia offense. Using their respective 1H averages over their last 5 games, basic math puts it at PHI 41 DET 47. Obviously the linesmakers aren't likely to be that far off the mark, but with the Sixers shooting a paltry 41.2% the last week, hopefully they manage to pull the overall 1H number down with them. As for the Warriors/T-Wolves, kind of like putting your hand over a hot stove betting Golden State under (you get burnt, then stupidly ask why you did that in the first place...), but the series trends under, and with all the talk about the T-Wolves lack of defensive effort on Friday, just think they try to slow the pace down in this one (saying they need to bring more intensity on defense does nothing if you don't have the personnel, but walking the ball up court at least lets you be in better position (in theory) to transition over to defense).

 

[hugh613]

I'm not sure who should feel more embarrassed: me for taking the Sixers team total under or SVG for the no show by the Pistons. Probably me, but still... Hopefully the Warriors poor shooting from last night carries over to start the game tonight...

 

[hugh613]

WTF? Shut the ESPN window after Lavine scored with 25 seconds left to put it at 224. Now I look and see the T-Wolves just let the clock run out. Don't get me wrong, I'm glad I won, but if Thibodeau told them not to bother fouling, that's pretty disgraceful if you ask me...

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 82-80-1, -2.12

Monday:

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12/12/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 507 Brooklyn Nets/Houston Rockets* Over 226½ -110 *2 UNITS*

 

[hugh613]

*Not sure which way the number's going to trend by tip off, but don't think it really matters: either it soars over the total or falls flat on its face. No's 1 and 2 in the league in terms of 3 point attempts per game, so the chances are pretty good they could go scoreless one minute, then put up 12 the next. Also, the possibility of Jeremy Lin being back gave me a bit of pause but, if anything, it probably helps out the total a bit as he's more adept at pushing the pace and putting his teammates in good position to score. Plus, moving Isiah Whitehead to the bench probably better for the 2nd unit than having Randy Foye running the point. And, suffice it to say, the Rockets shouldn't have much of a problem putting up ponts against the league's worst defense.

 

[Tito]

:cheers3:

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 83-80-1, -0.12

Tuesday:

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12/13/2016 9:05 PM NBA Basketball 709 New York Knicks* -3½ -110 vs Phoenix Suns *2 UNITS*

Thanks Tito.

 

[Tito]

i like the play Hugh...gl bud

 

[Metallica]

BOL tonight Hugh.

 

[emkee]

GL Hugh.

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 83-82-1, -2.32

Wednesday:

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12/14/2016 7:05 PM NBA Basketball 503 Toronto Raptors* -8½ -110 vs Philadelphia 76ers *2 UNITS*

Thanks Tito, Metallica and emkee.