December 2016

Adding:

12/12/2016 12:00 PM Cyprus Soccer 401 Anorthosis Famagusta (CYP-1)/Apoel Nicosia (CYP-1)* Over 2½ -114
12/12/2016 12:00 PM Israel Soccer 604 Maccabi Achi Nazareth (ISR-L)/Hapoel Afula (ISR-L)* Over 2½ +110

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Adding:

12/12/2016 3:00 PM Portugal Soccer 61 Rio Ave (POR)/Arouca (POR)* Over ½,1 -112 for 1st Half

*Line's a little low for my liking, but there's been a 1H goal in 13 of Rio Ave's last 15 overall, including 6 straight overall. As for Arouca, 5 of their last 7 overall, and 6 of their last 8 at home.

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MTD: 53-35-8, +8.14

Tuesday:

12/13/2016 2:30 PM Scotland Soccer 1511 Livingston (SCO-1)/Stenhousemuir (SCO-1)* Over 2½,3 -137
12/13/2016 2:45 PM England Soccer 54 Arsenal (ENG-P)/Everton (ENG-P)* Over 2½ -130
12/13/2016 2:45 PM England Soccer 116 Rotherham (ENG-Cham)/Fulham (ENG-Cham)* Over 3 -121

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Figures I pass on the Paraguay match and it goes over in the 1H... Didn't really like either total in Bolivia which is why I called it a night (what's the point of 5Dimes hanging a 3.5 at plus money in The Strongest match without an alt line? Talk about discouraging action...) Both home teams should win, but meh... As for Argentina, you could maybe make a case for both Defensa Y Justicia and a goal in the 1H but, the way it usually goes, if I see a bunch of zeroes on the matchup page at futbol24, it takes me about 2 seconds to close it, so... And for some reason, that Deportivo Moron total actually intrigues me (love that name), but think I'll pass.

And I don't really have time to write them up, but Livingston and Stenhousemuir are the top two over teams in Scotland One (13-2 and 13-1 respectively), so if that one doesn't hit, you know it's not meant to be tomorrow...

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Adding:

12/13/2016 2:45 PM Scotland Soccer 1501 Hamilton (SCO-P)/Celtic (SCO-P)* Over 3½ -117
12/13/2016 2:45 PM Scotland Soccer 1521 Annan (SCO-2)/Forfar (SCO-2)* Over 2½,3 -133

*That's what you like to see: 3-1-1 on games I wrote up but did not play... Hope somewhat out there benefited at least.

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MTD: 56-36-9, +9.97

Adding:

12/13/2016 7:05 PM Argentina Soccer 807 Los Andes (ARG-B)/CA Chacarita Juniors (ARG-B)* Over 2 -110

*Would've been nice if Fulham hadn't missed that PK, but what can you do... Anyways, Los Andes with 8 straight games played of 2 goals or more (only 3 official overs though - 1 game was abandoned). Chacharita with 5 of their last 7 featuring 2 goals or more (4 overs), and scoring 3 goals themselves in each of their last two games. Six of the last seven H2H have had at least two goals, with the over hitting in 5 of them. Probably end up pushing on the 2, but figure there's a better than average shot at 3 with the nice goal scoring run Chacharita have been on for the last month.

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Adding:

12/14/2016 12:30 PM Turkey Soccer 1214 Besiktas (TUR-Cup)* -1,-1½ -116 vs Kayserispor (TUR-Cup) *2 UNITS*

*Booking this one now in case the price spikes overnight... Anyways, all signs pointed to Besiktas in this one to begin with, but with the terror attacks this past weekend, if they can't dig down and bring the heat in this one, I don't know what to tell you...

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Adding:

12/14/2016 10:30 AM Bulgaria Soccer 657 Neftochimik Burgas (BUL-A)/Levski Sofia (BUL-A)* Over 2½,3 -109

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Adding:

12/14/2016 2:45 PM England Soccer 101 Burnley (ENG-P)/West Ham (ENG-P)* Over 2½ -115
12/14/2016 2:45 PM Holland Soccer 780 Den Haag (HOL-Cup)/Feyenoord (HOL-Cup)* Over 3,3½ -122
12/14/2016 2:45 PM Wales Soccer 1251 The New Saints (WAL-P)/Rhyl FC (WAL-P)* Over 3½ -132
12/14/2016 3:05 PM France Soccer 424 Guingamp (FRA-Coupe)/Lyon (FRA-Coupe)* Over 2½ -148
12/14/2016 3:05 PM France Soccer 433 Rennes (FRA-Coupe)/Monaco (FRA-Coupe)* Over 2½,3 -119

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MTD: 59-40-11, +8.25

Adding:

12/14/2016 6:00 PM Chile Soccer 701 Everton De Vina (CHI-Cup)/Colo Colo (CHI-Cup)* Over 2½,3 -137
12/14/2016 6:05 PM Argentina Soccer 513 Nueva Chicago (ARG-B)/Argentinos Juniors (ARG-B)* Over 2 -119
12/14/2016 7:30 PM Argentina Soccer 522 Juventud Gualeguaychu (ARG-B)/San Martin de Tucuman (ARG-B)* Over 2 -127

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. Let's see what kind of start Saprissa get off to first (considering Santos Guapiles have already packed it in for the season, don't see why Saprissa shouldn't be able to blow them out of the water from the get go).

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So should we lay the hammer on Alajuelnese tonight?
 
So should we lay the hammer on Alajuelnese tonight?
Well, don't forget, Alajuelense is out of it as well. Tempted to just go over as this is more or less a friendly at this point. I'll get back to you in a bit...

Also looking to see who made the trip to Japan for America and RM.
 
RM sat CR7, Benzema and Modric the other day just for this trip, they're taking it seriously. Hoping for some goals, CA took a half the other night before they looked into the match.
 
Adding:

12/14/2016 9:30 PM Costa Rica Soccer 221 Alajuelense (CRC)/Santos de Guapiles (CRC)* Over 2½ -109

*Be nice if these Argentinian fucks got me another goal for the push... And, yes, you're right kj: looks like everyone made the trip. Wonder if James or Isco starts to give the offense a bit more punch?

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Man, there's like nothing tomorrow unless I plan on betting the Iraqi league (that's not a 'no' by the way...)
 
MTD: 62-40-12, +11.25

Thursday:

12/15/2016 8:00 AM Bulgaria Soccer 601 Lokomotiv Gorna (BUL-A)/Beroe (BUL-A)* Under 2,2½ -124

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MTD: 63-40-13, +11.75

Adding:

12/15/2016 2:45 PM Holland Soccer 854 Sparta Rotterdam (HOL-Cup)/SC Heracles (HOL-Cup)* Over 2½ -136

*That line looks suspiciously low to me (well, let's face it, anytime you get 2.5 in the Netherlands, it looks suspicious), but they played to a 2-2 draw their first meeting in Eredivisie action this season, so not sure why anything would change today. Admittedly, the dynamics of a cup tie changes things a bit, but that first meeting featured 31 shots (Sparta 19, Heracles 12), so while some of the players may change, the style of play shouldn't.

O/U numbers not that great (Sparta 5-3 on the road, Heracles 3-4 at home), but O/U numbers don't always tell the whole story. The big thing here should be the expected pace of play (the more wide open, the greater the likelihood of goals, although obviously not a guarantee).

Both sides relatively average in terms of shots taken per game, but Heracles ranks No.2 at home in shots allowed per game at 14.4, while Sparta ranks No.2 on the road in shots allowed per game at 18.0. Admittedly, those numbers can get skewed a bit by strength of schedule (both teams have faced some combination of Ajax, Feyenoord and PSV), but the fact remains it should be a relatively wide open game.

Whether or not they score, well, that's always the million dollar question, but between a game where you might only get a handful of legitimate scoring opportunities, or a game where teams are constantly striving to score, I'll always take the latter.

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MTD: 64-40-13, +12.75

Adding;

12/15/2016 7:10 PM Argentina Soccer 421 Rosario Central (ARG-Copa)/River Plate (ARG-Copa)* Over 2 -108

*Probably end up a push, but the only other game tonight is that meaningless Costa Rican match, which logically should be an under, but meh... As for Argentina, was tempted to take Rosario on the ML as this will be their third straight appearance in the final (with losses in the previous two), but River's one of those teams I can't bring myself to bet against, so we'll go with the total. H/A stats don't apply as it's neutral site (I think that's Belgrano's stadium), but Rosario O/U 1.5 in 5 straight (only one over) and nine of their last eleven, and River O/U 1.5 in nine of their last thirteen. Won't lay -192 on the 1.5 (it's Argentina so you're playing with fire to begin with), but think 2's a safe bet, so hopefully we can eke out a third.

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MTD: 65-40-13, +13.75

Friday:

12/16/2016 3:50 AM Australia Soccer 1301 Adelaide United (AUS-A)/Newcastle Jets (AUS-A)* Over 2½ -113

*And when I wake up to yet another 2 goal scoreline, I'll be like "Why the fuck do I keep betting A-League?" Maybe some musical inspiration from one of Australia's finest will help push this through (and apologies to dylanphan who was undoubtedly hoping I'd go with "Physical" by Olivia Newton John...)

<iframe width="480" height="320" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/F93ywiGMDnQ" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

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GL Hugh. Not that it was ever decent, but the A-League has turned to shit. I TRY not to even bother with it.
 
MTD: 66-40-13, +14.75

Adding:

12/16/2016 2:00 PM Holland Soccer 907 TOP Oss (HOL-2)/Volendam (HOL-2)* Over 3,3½ -130
12/16/2016 2:30 PM Germany Soccer 301 Borussia Dortmund (GER-1)/Hoffenheim (GER-1)* Over 3 -135
12/16/2016 2:30 PM Poland Soccer 1704 Wisla Krakow (POL-E)/Ruch Chorzow (POL-E)* Over 2½ -133

*Thanks Monger. O/U in A-League at 52.0% this season, down from 63.6% last season. Where the scoring has really spiked this season is Ekstraklasa - 59.2% this season, up from 45.3% last season.

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Friday:
12/16/2016 3:50 AM Australia Soccer 1301 Adelaide United (AUS-A)/Newcastle Jets (AUS-A)* Over 2½ -113
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We got lucky as they scored deep in injury time. In saying that, Adelaide hit the post three times, so the bet could have won much earlier
 
MTD: 68-41-13, +15.42

Saturday:

12/17/2016 3:50 AM Australia Soccer 3004 Melbourne Victory (AUS-A)/Melbourne City (AUS-A)* Over 2½ -141
12/17/2016 6:00 AM Australia Soccer 1451 Sydney FC (AUS-A)/Perth Glory (AUS-A)* Over 2½ -131
12/17/2016 7:30 AM England Soccer 51 Chelsea (ENG-P)/Crystal Palace (ENG-P)* Over 2½ -134

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Thanks blackcrow.
 
Adding:

12/17/2016 10:00 AM England Soccer 713 Dover (ENG-Nat)/Forest Green (ENG-Nat)* Over 2½ -131
12/17/2016 10:00 AM Scotland Soccer 2451 Airdrie (SCO-1)/Livingston (SCO-1)* Over 3 -111
12/17/2016 11:15 AM Croatia Soccer 1604 Istra 1961 (CRO-1)/Rijeka (CRO-1)* Over 2½ -142
12/17/2016 2:00 PM Belgium Soccer 357 Mouscron Peruwelz (BEL)/Charleroi (BEL)* Over 2½ -115
12/17/2016 2:45 PM Italy Soccer 157 AS Roma (ITA-A)/Juventus (ITA-A)* Over 2½ -124

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MTD: 70-47-13, +9.85

Adding:

12/17/2016 6:10 PM Paraguay Soccer 2057 River Plate (PAR)/Nacional Asuncion (PAR)* Over 3,3½ -102 *2 UNITS*

*Well, that was an expensive morning/afternoon. No one does crash and burn quite like me...

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Thanks Gurvatron.
 
MTD: 70-48-13, +7.81

Sunday:

12/18/2016 6:30 AM Italy Soccer 101 Inter Milan (ITA-A)/Sassuolo (ITA-A)* Over 2½ -126 *2 UNITS*

*Ugh...

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MTD: 70-49-13, +5.29

Adding:

12/18/2016 9:00 AM Italy Soccer 110 Torino (ITA-A)/Napoli (ITA-A)* Over 3 -127 *2 UNITS*

*sigh*

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Adding:

12/18/2016 10:30 AM Italy Soccer 553 Cremonese (ITA-Pro A)/Racing Roma (ITA-Pro A)* Over 2½ -109 *2 UNITS*

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Adding:

12/18/2016 12:00 PM Belgium Soccer 304 Kortrijk (BEL)/FC Brugge (BEL)* Over 2½,3 -136 *2 UNITS*
12/18/2016 12:00 PM Poland Soccer 1404 Gornik Leczna (POL-E)/Legia Warsaw (POL-E)* Over 2½,3 -143 *2 UNITS*

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MTD: 74-49-13, +13.29

Adding:

12/18/2016 2:00 PM Belgium Soccer 307 Eupen (BEL)/Anderlecht (BEL)* Over 1½ +101 for 1st Half *2 UNITS*

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MTD: 75-49-13, +15.31

Adding:

12/18/2016 2:45 PM France Soccer 257 Lyon (FRA-1)/Monaco (FRA-1)* Over 2½ -158 *2 UNITS*

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Adding:

12/18/2016 4:00 PM Paraguay Soccer 1351 Olimpia Asuncion (PAR)/Guarani (PAR)* Over 2½,3 -115 *2 UNITS*

*Have to leave for a few hours, so posting this one up a little earlier than the others. Should be it for the night, although I'm leaning heavy towards Independiente Santa Fe on the AH in the Colombian final later on.

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MTD: 76-50-13, +15.01

Monday:

12/19/2016 2:30 PM Italy Soccer 401 Virtus Entella (ITA-B)/Verona (ITA-B)* Over 2½ -109

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Thanks Monger.
 
Adding:

12/19/2016 12:00 PM Turkey Soccer 251 Antalyaspor (TUR-S)/Bursaspor (TUR-S)* Over 2½ -137
12/19/2016 12:00 PM Poland Soccer 901 Piast Gliwice (POL-E)/Zaglebie Lubin (POL-E)* Over 2½ -113

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MTD: 78-51-13, +15.92

Adding:

12/19/2016 5:00 PM Argentina Soccer 301 Temperley (ARG)/Quilmes AC (ARG)* Over ½,1 -110 for 1st Half

*Feels like a loser already, but the 1H Over has gone 10-3 so far this round in Argentina, so might as well just keep riding the wave here. As for stats, Temperley's 5-1 O/U 1H on the road this season (2 GF, 8 GA) while Quilmes have been bleeding goals as of late (3 goals in each of their last 3 games). Like I said, won't really surprise me that much if it goes scoreless, but I'll take my chances we can eke out at least one goal in the 1H.

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Thanks dylan.
 
MTD: 78-52-13, +14.82

Tuesday:

12/20/2016 2:30 PM Belgium Soccer 354 Westerlo (BEL)/Mouscron Peruwelz (BEL)* Over 2½ -127
12/20/2016 2:30 PM Scotland Soccer 701 East Fife (SCO-1)/Stenhousemuir (SCO-1)* Over 2½ -146
12/20/2016 3:00 PM Spain Soccer 260 Cordoba (ESP-Cup)/Malaga (ESP-Cup)* Over 2½ -118

*Not a whole lot to choose from, but these three look alright: Westerlo a Pro League best 16-3 O/U on the season (10-0 on the road), with Mouscron 6-3 O/U at home. Line looks a little short, probably due to the fact that its less good offense and more bad defense contributing to those numbers, but the over's 4-1 the last 5 H2H, so BTTS should be good, and hopefully it doesn't end in a draw. Not the greatest offensive numbers in Scotland, but Stenhousemuir's a League 1 best 14-2 O/U (7-1 at home), so might as well. And as for Spain, Malaga's not really a favourite of mine, but 5 of their last 6 at home have gone over. As for Cordoba, 4 of their last 5 overall have gone over, while BTTS has hit in their last 8 on the road. The big thing for me in this one, however, are the team totals at Pinnacle right now (Cordoba Over 0.5 -137, Malaga Over 1.5 -168). Not to say they're tipping their hand, but pretty obvious they're expecting at least a few goals in this one.

Might add a few more in the morning, but that's all I've got for now. To my readers in North America, I bid you a good night, and Zǎoshang hǎo to my subscribers in the Far East.

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Don't feel like finishing up my handicapping for tonight, so figured I'd share my notes for tomorrow in case anyone's interested (and, yes, I actually cycle through that many games - you should see my 'short' list on Saturdays and Sundays, LOL)

Lyon AH
PSG Over
Monaco Over

Bayern AH
Bayern Over
Hoffenheim Over

Zulte Over
Oostende Over
Liege Over
Brugge AH and Over

Inter Over

Avranches Over

Galatasaray Over
Osmanlispor Over

Sevilla AH

Portimonense ML

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Thanks dylan.
 
MTD: 79-54-13, +13.09

Wednesday:

12/21/2016 2:00 PM Germany Soccer 105 RB Leipzig (GER-1)/Bayern Munchen (GER-1)* Over 2½ -140 *2 UNITS*

*Trimmed the card down then decided this was the only one I really wanted, so... Anyways, there's more than just the top of the Bundesliga table at stake in this one; to read some of the op-ed pieces, this is a battle for the very soul of German football. Now, for those who don't know, RB Leipzig was pretty much founded to be a corporate extension of Red Bull (yes, like the energy drink), so their meteoric rise over the past few years has ruffled more than just a few feathers; in other words, even their fiercest rivals are going to be pulling for Bayern in this one.

As for the game itself, usually these high profile matches turn out to be total duds, just because both teams tend to start out overly cautious, but that's not RB's style and that's not what's got them to this point. Wouldn't expect them to cower in this one. As for Bayern, admittedly, they're not quite as dynamic on offense as in years past but Arjen Robben being back should help, as will the fact BM's offense has shown up in every other high profile league match at Allianz this season (overs against Wolfsburg and Leverkusen).

It's a statement game for each side, so don't think either team will be content with 1-0 if it can be helped (actually thought of taking the +500 or whatever it was on Bayern scoring 4 or more). If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but hopefully I won't be.

As for some of the other games, the lines kind of discouraging action on some of the totals like Monaco, PSG and Hoffenheim, while the AH on Lyon's gotten a bit out of hand. Ended up dropping the overs in the Brugge and The Strongest matches, so hopefully it's not a case where those two come in and the Bayern total flops...

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MTD: 80-54-13, +15.09

Adding:

12/21/2016 3:15 PM Portugal Soccer 622 Portimonense (POR-2)/Olhanense (POR-2)* Over 2 -145

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Lyon AH W
PSG Over W
Monaco Over W or P, depends

Bayern AH W
Bayern Over W
Hoffenheim Over L

Zulte Over L
Oostende Over L
Liege Over L
Brugge AH and Over W and W

Inter Over W

Avranches Over L

Galatasaray Over W or P, depends
Osmanlispor Over W

Sevilla AH W

Portimonense ML W

Ended up dropping the overs in the Brugge and The Strongest matches, so hopefully it's not a case where those two come in and the Bayern total flops...

Adding:

12/21/2016 3:15 PM Portugal Soccer 622 Portimonense (POR-2)/Olhanense (POR-2)* Over 2 -145

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All this to say, my sheer stupidity surprises even me sometimes... Back around 6:30 with a possible play in Bolivia.

:hang:
 
MTD: 80-55-13, +13.64

Adding:

12/21/2016 7:00 PM Bolivia Soccer 457 Guabira (BOL)/Universitario SFX (BOL)* Over 2½,3 -149

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MTD: 81-55-13, +14.64

Thursday:

12/22/2016 2:00 PM Portugal Soccer 507 Moreirense (POR)/Sporting Braga (POR)* Over 2½ -119
12/22/2016 2:45 PM Italy Soccer 207 Napoli (ITA-A)/Fiorentina (ITA-A)* Over 2½ -135
12/22/2016 2:45 PM Italy Soccer 216 Genoa (ITA-A)/Torino (ITA-A)* Over 2½ -135

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Adding:

12/22/2016 8:05 AM Qatar Soccer 1401 Umm Salal (QAT)/Al Arabi (QAT)* Over 2½ -143
12/22/2016 8:30 AM Italy Soccer 804 Catanzaro (ITA-Pro C)/Nuova Cosenza (ITA-Pro C)* Over 2,2½ -112

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Adding:

12/22/2016 10:15 AM Qatar Soccer 1407 Al Sadd (QAT)/Al Jaish (QAT)* Over 3,3½ +100

*I swear, I'll never understand the point of playing if you're not going to try and score (54 minutes in, and there's been a grand total of three shots in this Italian game). As for the Qatar match, this one should be a bit more cut and dry: the last 7 H2H have gone over 2.5 and 6 of the last 7 have gone over 3.5. Only concern would be that both sides are sporting decent defensive numbers as of late, but that can be pretty misleading as half the teams in this league can't score, so let's hope for some goals early and often.

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MTD: 84-58-14, +14.73

Adding:

12/22/2016 10:00 PM Mexico Soccer 601 UANL Tigres (MEX)/America de Mexico (MEX)* Over ½,1 -130 for 1st Half
12/23/2016 3:50 AM Australia Soccer 3001 West Sydney (AUS-A)/Brisbane Roar (AUS-A)* Over 2½ -136

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Adding:

12/23/2016 2:45 PM Scotland Soccer 701 Aberdeen (SCO-P)/Motherwell (SCO-P)* Over 2½ -123

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