December 2012
- Thread starter hugh613
- Start date
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
YTD: 6-7-1, -3.65
Sunday:
NBA Orlando Magic / Los Angeles Lakers Over 100 [1H] -110 *2 UNITS*
*The pace the Lakers ran at the other night against the Nuggets is the pace I expect them to run at tonight, so regardless of the Magic's overall offensive woes, there should be more than enough shots to go around to start this one (plus maybe playing at an elevated pace again gives Afflalo a chance to get back into his comfort zone).
Good luck!
Sunday:
NBA Orlando Magic / Los Angeles Lakers Over 100 [1H] -110 *2 UNITS*
*The pace the Lakers ran at the other night against the Nuggets is the pace I expect them to run at tonight, so regardless of the Magic's overall offensive woes, there should be more than enough shots to go around to start this one (plus maybe playing at an elevated pace again gives Afflalo a chance to get back into his comfort zone).
Good luck!
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
Thanks BossUp. Hopefully people only ever tail the winning picks and not the clunkers I throw out there on a regular basis...
YTD: 7-7-1, -1.65
Monday:
NBA Milwaukee Bucks Team Total Over 48 [1H] -110 *2 UNITS*
*Like I mentioned in another thread, the Bucks offense has been wildly inconsistent as of late but, at the same time, take a look at some of the defenses they've been up against over the past week and a half (Chicago, Boston, Minnesota). Fortunately for them, the Hornets are at the other end of the defensive spectrum, particularly with regards to DEFF where they're a league worst 111.7 (113.5 over their last five games, and 109.4 at home this season). Plus, if you look back at the game two weeks ago at Bradley Center, a few things stand out: a) it's pretty obvious the combination of Vasquez and Rivers can't guard Ellis and Jennings (one turnover between the two of them the entire game), so look for them to go off again, b) even with Davis in the lineup, the Bucks managed to out rebound the Hornets; without him, the likes of llyasova, Dalembert and (provided he plays) Gooden should get loads of second chance opportunities, c) the Bucks got off a tonne of shots (93) and barely turned the ball over, which to me says the Hornets don't match up on defense at all and d) the Bucks continue to push the pace regardless of opponent (especially at the start of games), so the chances to score will be there throughout (just look at the Celtics game on Saturday where they were held scoreless until six minutes in, and still managed to put up 47 in the 1H).
As for why the 1H and not the full game: a) for some bizarre reason (maybe conditioning?), Milwaukee's production dips off a lot from start to finish (50.4 1H, 46.1 2H), so best to stick with what's working and b) no chance I'll be able to stay up the entire game, so no sense in depriving myself of some much needed sleep. : )
Good luck!
YTD: 7-7-1, -1.65
Monday:
NBA Milwaukee Bucks Team Total Over 48 [1H] -110 *2 UNITS*
*Like I mentioned in another thread, the Bucks offense has been wildly inconsistent as of late but, at the same time, take a look at some of the defenses they've been up against over the past week and a half (Chicago, Boston, Minnesota). Fortunately for them, the Hornets are at the other end of the defensive spectrum, particularly with regards to DEFF where they're a league worst 111.7 (113.5 over their last five games, and 109.4 at home this season). Plus, if you look back at the game two weeks ago at Bradley Center, a few things stand out: a) it's pretty obvious the combination of Vasquez and Rivers can't guard Ellis and Jennings (one turnover between the two of them the entire game), so look for them to go off again, b) even with Davis in the lineup, the Bucks managed to out rebound the Hornets; without him, the likes of llyasova, Dalembert and (provided he plays) Gooden should get loads of second chance opportunities, c) the Bucks got off a tonne of shots (93) and barely turned the ball over, which to me says the Hornets don't match up on defense at all and d) the Bucks continue to push the pace regardless of opponent (especially at the start of games), so the chances to score will be there throughout (just look at the Celtics game on Saturday where they were held scoreless until six minutes in, and still managed to put up 47 in the 1H).
As for why the 1H and not the full game: a) for some bizarre reason (maybe conditioning?), Milwaukee's production dips off a lot from start to finish (50.4 1H, 46.1 2H), so best to stick with what's working and b) no chance I'll be able to stay up the entire game, so no sense in depriving myself of some much needed sleep. : )
Good luck!
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
Thanks TheLaw4. Trust me, I was ready to go off after a) Ellis' wide open layup just before that rimmed out, then b) John Henson missed two free throws right afterwards. Thankfully it worked out, although I feel kind of stupid for such a long winded write up on a play that just barely hit, but it is what it is...
YTD: 8-7-1, +0.35
Adding:
NBA Orlando Magic / Golden State Warriors Over 196 [FT] -110
*Warriors 6-2 O/U at home this season, Magic on a 5 game over streak, both teams with solid OEFF numbers over their last five (ORL 107.0, GSW 110.3), not so solid DEFF numbers over their last five (ORL 112.55, GSW 105.39) and, based on what I saw last night, that Magic offense (especially Afflalo) is way better suited for run and gun than it is half court. Hopefully the hot shooting carries over.
Good luck!
YTD: 8-7-1, +0.35
Adding:
NBA Orlando Magic / Golden State Warriors Over 196 [FT] -110
*Warriors 6-2 O/U at home this season, Magic on a 5 game over streak, both teams with solid OEFF numbers over their last five (ORL 107.0, GSW 110.3), not so solid DEFF numbers over their last five (ORL 112.55, GSW 105.39) and, based on what I saw last night, that Magic offense (especially Afflalo) is way better suited for run and gun than it is half court. Hopefully the hot shooting carries over.
Good luck!
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
ClubDirt
Pretty much a regular
'an_horse'
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
YTD: 9-7-2, +1.35
Adding:
NBA Indiana Pacers / Chicago Bulls Under 89 [2H] -110 *0.5 UNIT*
*I'd do it for a full, but I want to be able to show a profit for the night just in case. Anyways, both teams shooting less than 40% from the field, both teams being forced into really tough shots, and both teams milking the shot clock down to single digits on just about every possession. Even if the shooting percentages go way up, odds are the pace won't, so that should keep the scoring down. Hopefully one side pulls away to avoid foul shots at the end.
Good luck!
Adding:
NBA Indiana Pacers / Chicago Bulls Under 89 [2H] -110 *0.5 UNIT*
*I'd do it for a full, but I want to be able to show a profit for the night just in case. Anyways, both teams shooting less than 40% from the field, both teams being forced into really tough shots, and both teams milking the shot clock down to single digits on just about every possession. Even if the shooting percentages go way up, odds are the pace won't, so that should keep the scoring down. Hopefully one side pulls away to avoid foul shots at the end.
Good luck!
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
YTD: 10-7-2, +1.85
Wednesday:
NBA Detroit Pistons ML [1H] -115
*Interesting stat: the Pistons are 5-3 SU at home this season, but have held the lead going into the break in all eight games, outscoring their opponents by a margin of 52.4 to 45.3. In terms of tonight's game: you've got the Pistons who've been doing major work with a DEFF of 91.83 their past 5 games, as compared to 101.09 for the Warriors over the same time frame, and first game of an East Coast swing for the Warriors, who just happen to be 1-4 ATS their last 5 visits to the Palace.
NBA San Antonio Spurs -9 [FT] -110
*The Bucks offense is wildly inconsistent right now, so going up against the Spurs at AT&T probably isn't the best thing in the world.
NBA Orlando Magic Team Total Over 94 [FT] -110
*The up tempo pace of the West seems to agree with the Orlando offense, as they've already racked up big time numbers against the Nuggets (102), Suns (115), Lakers (113) and Warriors (102) this season. Probably has as much to do with the number of shots taken than anything else, but when your roster is loaded with jump shooters, sometimes that's the only way to go.
Good luck!
Wednesday:
NBA Detroit Pistons ML [1H] -115
*Interesting stat: the Pistons are 5-3 SU at home this season, but have held the lead going into the break in all eight games, outscoring their opponents by a margin of 52.4 to 45.3. In terms of tonight's game: you've got the Pistons who've been doing major work with a DEFF of 91.83 their past 5 games, as compared to 101.09 for the Warriors over the same time frame, and first game of an East Coast swing for the Warriors, who just happen to be 1-4 ATS their last 5 visits to the Palace.
NBA San Antonio Spurs -9 [FT] -110
*The Bucks offense is wildly inconsistent right now, so going up against the Spurs at AT&T probably isn't the best thing in the world.
NBA Orlando Magic Team Total Over 94 [FT] -110
*The up tempo pace of the West seems to agree with the Orlando offense, as they've already racked up big time numbers against the Nuggets (102), Suns (115), Lakers (113) and Warriors (102) this season. Probably has as much to do with the number of shots taken than anything else, but when your roster is loaded with jump shooters, sometimes that's the only way to go.
Good luck!
GL Hugh
D
ddk997
Guest
gl tonight hugh
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
- Bucks last 5 games: 50.0 PF, 53.6 PA 1H; 38.8 PF, 45.8 PA 2H. Plus they almost always come out flying at Bradley Center.
- Celtics 1-7 O/U as a road favorite of 3 points or less the past three seasons. Sixers 2-11 O/U as a home underdog of 3 points or less the past three seasons. Plus that abysmal shooting from last year's playoff series is still fresh in my mind.
- As for the Warriors/Nets, just get the impression that the Nets are going to be more willing to run with the smaller lineup (smaller without Lopez that is), and that the Warriors are going to follow the Thunder's lead, but that's just me speculating...
Hulu
#3DownNation
Those are interesting numbers. I don't typically look at 1H/2H splits but maybe I should add that to my routine
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
To be honest, I find the more stuff you look at, the more likely you are to get bogged down in the numbers (but that's just me). Plus, I'm not sure any other team's numbers are quite as extreme as the Bucks - this goes back to last year when the 1H at Bradley Center was hitting at an amazing clip (something like 16-2 to start the season). The 1H would fly over, then the game total wouldn't even end up hitting most of the time. Plus the 2H collapses for the Bucks have been pretty extreme the past few weeks (just look at the Spurs game the other night). And if not for that rally against the Bulls at United Center, the numbers might be even worse.
[TABLE="class: data"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TH]Overall[/TH]
[TH="colspan: 2"]Charlotte[/TH]
[TH]NBA Avg. [/TH]
[TH="colspan: 2"]Milwaukee[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="class: alt"]
[/TH]
[TH="class: alt"]Offense[/TH]
[TH="class: alt"]Defense[/TH]
[TH][/TH]
[TH="class: alt"]Offense[/TH]
[TH="class: alt"]Defense[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="class: alt"]Points
1st Quarter
2nd Quarter
3rd Quarter
4th Quarter
[/TH]
[TD]96.1
22.7
24.8
23.2
23.4[/TD]
[TD]101.5
25.4
26.4
23.3
24.3[/TD]
[TH]97.5
24.3
24.6
23.9
23.7[/TH]
[TD]96.2
25.2
25.6
22.7
22.2[/TD]
[TD]98.6
25.7
23.4
25.0
23.6[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
I don't know what the deal is (lack of focus, lack of conditioning, halftime adjustments), but it's probably going to end up costing Skiles his job at some point.
See you in a few hours.
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
YTD: 19-18-2, +3.85
Friday:
NBA Washington Wizards Team Total Over 97 [FT] -110
NBA Milwaukee Bucks Team Total Over 49½ [1H] -110
NBA Milwaukee Bucks -1½ [1H] -105
*The Lakers have given up 100 plus in seven of their last eight games so, despite my reservations about the Wizards offense, it's a chance I'm willing to take. As for the Bucks, the bench looks a little thin tonight, so that should mean major minutes for both Jennings and Ellis to start, and that's fine by me: the last five meetings between the two, the Bucks have outscored the Cavs by a margin of 57.8 to 48.8 in the 1H, and have won 4 of the 5 first halves. Plus, like I've mentioned a few times, scoring in the 1H hasn't been the problem for the Bucks; it's the drop off in the 2H that makes you scratch your head (51.0 PF 1H, 45.6 PF 2H).
Good luck!
Jumpsinn
Friday:
NBA Washington Wizards Team Total Over 97 [FT] -110
NBA Milwaukee Bucks Team Total Over 49½ [1H] -110
NBA Milwaukee Bucks -1½ [1H] -105
*The Lakers have given up 100 plus in seven of their last eight games so, despite my reservations about the Wizards offense, it's a chance I'm willing to take. As for the Bucks, the bench looks a little thin tonight, so that should mean major minutes for both Jennings and Ellis to start, and that's fine by me: the last five meetings between the two, the Bucks have outscored the Cavs by a margin of 57.8 to 48.8 in the 1H, and have won 4 of the 5 first halves. Plus, like I've mentioned a few times, scoring in the 1H hasn't been the problem for the Bucks; it's the drop off in the 2H that makes you scratch your head (51.0 PF 1H, 45.6 PF 2H).
Good luck!
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
Stupid Wizards...
YTD: 21-19-2, +4.75
Adding:
NBA Memphis Grizzlies / Denver Nuggets Over 98 [1H] -110 *2 UNITS*
*From the looks of it, nine of the last ten 1H's between the two have hit 100 plus. The 1H is also each team's better scoring half (MEM: 1H 49.7, 2H 46.3, DEN 1H 51.4, 2H 48.6) and weaker defensive half (MEM: 1H 45.7, 2H 44.1, DEN 1H 51.5, 2H 48.8). That and after watching yet another bet that would've won at the half end up losing full time, maybe it's time to start making this 1H thing a full time thing...
Good luck!
YTD: 21-19-2, +4.75
Adding:
NBA Memphis Grizzlies / Denver Nuggets Over 98 [1H] -110 *2 UNITS*
*From the looks of it, nine of the last ten 1H's between the two have hit 100 plus. The 1H is also each team's better scoring half (MEM: 1H 49.7, 2H 46.3, DEN 1H 51.4, 2H 48.6) and weaker defensive half (MEM: 1H 45.7, 2H 44.1, DEN 1H 51.5, 2H 48.8). That and after watching yet another bet that would've won at the half end up losing full time, maybe it's time to start making this 1H thing a full time thing...
Good luck!
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