Daytona Speedweeks Discusion

[madshooter]

Well its finally that time of the year again, seems like its been forever, but nascar will be back in full force starting Sat. with the Shootout. Figured I would post some stats from preseason testing at Daytona and see if we could come up with some solid projections and darkhorses for the events. Look forward to a great year.


Past Budweiser Shootout Winners


Year Driver Make Starting Pos.
2007 Tony Stewart Chevrolet 14th
2006 Denny Hamlin Chevrolet 15th
2005 Jimmie Johnson Chevrolet 17th
2004 Dale Jarrett Ford 15th
2003 Dale Earnhardt Jr. Chevrolet 19th
2002 Tony Stewart Chevrolet 3rd
2001 Tony Stewart Chevrolet 7th
2000 Dale Jarrett Ford 15th
1999 Mark Martin Ford 13th
1998 Rusty Wallace Ford 13th
1997 Jeff Gordon Chevrolet 13th
1996 Dale Jarrett Ford 12th
1995 Dale Earnhardt Chevrolet 9th
1994 Jeff Gordon Chevrolet 6th
1993 Dale Earnhardt Chevrolet 13th
1992 Geoff Bodine Ford 2nd
1991 Dale Earnhardt Chevrolet 14th
1990 Ken Schrader Chevrolet 3rd
1989 Ken Schrader Chevrolet 1st
1988 Dale Earnhardt Chevrolet 2nd
1987 Bill Elliott Ford 1st
1986 Dale Earnhardt Chevrolet 4th
1985 Terry Labonte Chevrolet 11th
1984 Neil Bonnett Chevrolet 8th
1983 Neil Bonnett Chevrolet 15th
1982 Bobby Allison Buick 12th
1981 Darrell Waltrip Buick 1st
1980 Dale Earnhardt Chevrolet 5th
1979 Buddy Baker Chevrolet 3rd

 

[madshooter]

Fourteen of the 28 Budweiser Shootouts have been won from a top-10 starting position – only three from the pole position. Only four of the past 14 Budweiser Shootouts have been won from a top-10 starting position. Both the 13th and 15th starting positions have accounted for four race winners, more than any other position. Dale Earnhardt Jr., won the 2003 Budweiser Shootout from the 19th-starting position – the deepest in the field that a race winner has started in the 28-year history of the event.

Also note that a Chevy has won 6 out of the last 7 shootouts.

Looking at testing the Toyotas have been very fast in drafting runs and single car runs. I have already grabbed Vickers @ +7500 to win the 500 as there is alot of value I feel. I really like JR's chances to win also, but waiting to see if we get a little more value first. I can see him coming out first race with Hendricks and tearing up speedweeks.

 

[madshooter]

Drafting Runs

Pos. No. (Car) Driver Make Best Time Best Speed Session

1. 9 Kasey Kahne 47.591 189.111 D6
2. 18 Kyle Busch 47.662 188.830 D3PM
3. 11 Denny Hamlin 47.665 188.818 D6
4. 40 Dario Franchitti 47.689 188.723 D6
5. 01 Regan Smith 47.703 188.667 D6
6. 12 Ryan Newman 47.724 188.584 D6
7. 17 Matt Kenseth 47.747 188.494 D3PM
8. 77 Sam Hornish Jr. 47.836 188.143 D6
9. 43 Bobby Labonte 47.845 188.107 D6
10. 20 Tony Stewart 47.857 188.060 D6
11. 55 Michael Waltrip 47.877 187.982 D6
12. 6 David Ragan 47.888 187.939 D6
13. 41 Reed Sorenson 47.894 187.915 D3PM
14. 22 Dave Blaney 47.909 187.856 D6
15. 26 Jamie McMurray 47.910 187.852 D6
16. 15 Paul Menard 47.912 187.844 D6
17. 24 Jeff Gordon 47.914 187.837 D3PM
18. 84 A.J. Allmendinger 47.922 187.805 D3PM
19. 1 Martin Truex Jr. 47.922 187.805 D3PM
20. 34 Derrike Cope 47.925 187.793 D6
21. 44 Dale Jarrett 47.958 187.664 D6
22. 29 Kevin Harvick 47.992 187.531 D5PM
23. 66 Scott Riggs 48.007 187.473 D6
24. 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 48.014 187.445 D6
25. 31 Jeff Burton 48.019 187.426 D6
26. 96 J.J. Yeley 48.036 187.359 D2PM
27. 5 Casey Mears 48.040 187.344 D3PM
28. 21 Bill Elliott 48.042 187.336 D6
29. 2 Kurt Busch 48.047 187.317 D2PM
30. 8 Mark Martin 48.049 187.309 D3PM
31. 10 Patrick Carpentier 48.052 187.297 D6
32. 38 David Gilliland 48.065 187.246 D6
33. 16 Greg Biffle 48.075 187.207 D3AM
34. 99 Carl Edwards 48.089 187.153 D3PM
35. 48 Jimmie Johnson 48.090 187.149 D3AM
36. 78 Joe Nemechek 48.093 187.137 D2PM
37. 83 Brian Vickers 48.099 187.114 D5PM
38. 42 Juan Pablo Montoya 48.107 187.083 D3PM
39. 00 David Reutimann 48.111 187.067 D3PM
40. 28 Travis Kvapil 48.118 187.040 D3PM
41. 07 Clint Bowyer 48.157 186.889 D3PM
42. 7 Robby Gordon 48.181 186.796 D2PM
43. 27 Jacques Villeneuve 48.295 186.355 D3AM
44. 70 Jeremy Mayfield 48.299 186.339 D3AM
45. 19 Elliott Sadler 48.332 186.212 D2PM
46. 09 Sterling Marlin 48.345 186.162 D5PM
47. 50 Stanton Barrett 48.429 185.839 D6
48. 34 Eric McClure 48.434 185.820 D5PM
49. 49 Ken Schrader 48.456 185.736 D6
50. 45 Kyle Petty 48.516 185.506 D3PM
51. 08 Carl Long 48.611 185.143 D6
52. 87 Jeff Fuller 48.969 183.790 D5PM
53. 60 Boris Said 49.225 182.834 D6
54. 98 Jason Keller 49.241 182.775 D3PM
55. 33 Kirk Shelmerdine 49.304 182.541 D3PM
56. 57 Norm Benning 50.171 179.386 D6

 

[madshooter]

Single Car Runs

Pos. No. (Car) Driver Make Best Time Best Speed Session

1. 88B Dale Earnhardt Jr. 48.434 185.820 D5AM
2. 22B Dave Blaney 48.532 185.445 D4PM
3. 55 Michael Waltrip 48.555 185.257 D5AM
4. 83A Brian Vickers 48.568 185.307 D4PM
5. 44A Dale Jarrett 48.572 185.292 D4PM
6. 20A Tony Stewart 48.624 185.094 D4PM
7. 48A Jimmie Johnson 48.706 184.782 D1AM
8. 40 Dario Franchitti 48.718 184.737 D4PM
9. 5B Casey Mears 48.761 184.574 D1AM
10. 11B Denny Hamlin 48.766 184.555 D4PM
11. 27B Jacques Villeneuve 48.792 184.456 D2AM
12. 28B Travis Kvapil 48.875 184.143 D2AM
13. 18 Kyle Busch 48.896 184.064 D1PM
14. 84B A.J. Allmendinger 48.900 184.049 D2AM
15. 96B J.J. Yeley 48.951 183.857 D2AM
16. 38A David Gilliland 48.957 183.835 D4PM
17. 24A Jeff Gordon 48.964 183.809 D2AM
18. 12A Ryan Newman 49.027 183.572 D4PM
19. 00A David Reutimann 49.043 183.512 D1PM
20. 21A Bill Elliott 49.071 183.408 D4PM
21. 01A Aric Almirola 49.082 183.367 D1PM
22. 87 Jeff Fuller 49.100 183.299 D4PM
23. 9B Kasey Kahne 49.127 183.199 D4PM
24. 1A Martin Truex Jr. 49.142 183.143 D2AM
25. 6B David Ragan 49.160 183.076 D5AM
26. 10C Patrick Carpentier 49.194 182.949 D5AM
27. 43A Bobby Labonte 49.196 182.942 D5AM
28. 34A Eric McClure 49.228 182.823 D4PM
29. 42B Juan Pablo Montoya 49.250 182.741 D1PM
30. 66H Scott Riggs 49.253 182.730 D5AM
31. 17B Matt Kenseth 49.265 182.685 D2AM
32. 60B Boris Said 49.268 182.674 D4PM
33. 15A Paul Menard 49.276 182.645 D4PM
34. 70A Jeremy Mayfield 49.287 182.604 D1PM
35. 19A Elliott Sadler 49.292 182.585 D1PM
36. 01B Regan Smith 49.302 182.548 D4PM
37. 16B Greg Biffle 49.316 182.497 D2AM
38. 78A Joe Nemechek 49.331 182.441 D2AM
39. 98A Jason Keller 49.337 182.419 D2AM
40. 8A Mark Martin 49.344 182.393 D2AM
41. 7A Robby Gordon 49.344 182.393 D2AM
42. 07A Clint Bowyer 49.362 182.326 D2AM
43. 45A Kyle Petty 49.362 182.326 D2AM
44. 41A Reed Sorenson 49.380 182.260 D2AM
45. 99A Carl Edwards 49.403 182.175 D1PM
46. 31A Jeff Burton 49.403 182.175 D5AM
47. 2B Kurt Busch 49.408 182.157 D1PM
48. 50A Stanton Barrett 49.409 182.153 D5AM
49. 77A Sam Hornish Jr. 49.430 182.076 D5AM
50. 29A Kevin Harvick 49.467 181.939 D4PM
51. 33 Kirk Shelmerdine 49.551 181.631 D1PM
52. 26B Jaime McMurray 49.607 181.426 D4AM
53. 49A Ken Schrader 49.661 181.229 D5AM
54. 09B Sterling Marlin 49.758 180.875 D5AM
55. 49A John Andretti 49.930 180.252 D4AM
56. 08A Carl Long 50.410 178.536 D5AM
57. 57A Norm Benning 50.889 176.856 D4PM

 

[madshooter]

Lines from the greek

The Bud Shootout February 8 - 9, 2008 - Odds to win
2/8/2008 4:00 PM Driver to win The Bud Shootout
401 Jeff Gordon +400
402 Dale Earnhardt Jr +415
403 Jimmie Johnson +525
404 Tony Stewart +650
405 Kurt Busch +800
406 Mark Martin +1400
407 Martin Truex Jr +1400
408 Denny Hamlin +1400
409 Casey Mears +1400
410 Clint Bowyer +1600
411 Ryan Newman +1800
412 Jamie McMurray +1800
413 Greg Biffle +2500
414 Carl Edwards +2500
415 Kasey Kahne +2500
416 Field +1200

 

[madshooter]

Daytona 500 February 15 - 17, 2008 - Odds to win
2/15/2008 9:00 AM Driver to win the Daytona 500
101 Jeff Gordon +450
102 Dale Earnhardt Jr +500
103 Jimmie Johnson +550
104 Tony Stewart +850
105 Kevin Harvick +1100
106 Kurt Busch +1350
107 Kyle Busch +1600
108 Martin Truex Jr +1600
109 Matt Kenseth +1600
110 Ryan Newman +2000
111 Denny Hamlin +2000
112 Clint Bowyer +2500
113 Jeff Burton +2500
114 Mark Martin +2500
115 Jamie McMurray +2500
116 Carl Edwards +3000
117 Casey Mears +3000
118 Juan Montoya +4000
119 Greg Biffle +4000
120 Kasey Kahne +4000
121 Dario Franchitti +5000
122 Brian Vickers +7500
123 Field +2000

 

[Fondybadger]

Lets do this... we're getting our Daytona 500 pool ready to roll out here again as well...

 

[madshooter]

looking forward to it fondy :cheers:

 

[daveniner]

Looking forward to the Shootout and the 500 contest. Let's get this season rolling.

Greek lines for Sunday's qualifying, only:

Waltrip -125
Blaney +100

Johnson -150
Mears +125

Hamlin -135
Ky. Busch +110

Newman -125
Kahne +100

Riggs -120
Mayfield -105

J. Burton -140
Bowyer +115

Allmendinger -125
Reutimann +100

Kenseth -115
Biffle -110

Mostly teammates matched up. All matchups are between 2 drivers of the same make.

 

[madshooter]

thanks dave, putting together numbers as we speak, probably gonna lock in a few matchups tonight

 

[madshooter]

locked in


Waltrip over Blaney -125 .25 unit

Bowyer over Burton +115 .25 unit

Reutimann over Allmendinger +100 .25 unit


the numbers are close on all these matchups looking at preseason single car testing numbers and where they qualified looking at the last Dega race last year. Looking to go small as qualifying at Daytona is really a crap shoot, never know when you will be running into a head wind or being helped by one. Hope we all have a great year this year. :cheers:

 

[madshooter]

Will keep all plays for speedweeks in this thread, practice was interesting yesterday as from I say, I would say Jr, Stewart, and Edwards seemed to have the best cars. Hopefully it will be a great race tonight.


Bud Shootout

Jr over Gordon -145 .5 unit
Truex Jr over Martin -115 .25 unit

Edwards over Mears +100 .25 unit

McMurray over Busch +135 .25 unit

Blaney over Yeley +100 .25 unit

Waltrip over Jarrett -125 .25 unit


Jr to win @ +385 .25 unit

Stewart to win @ +700 .15 unit

Edwards to win @ +1600 .10 unit

Kahne to win @ +2500 .05 unit


Good luck everyone, hope we hit em hard tonight :cheers:

 

[daveniner]

I guess you see it like I do. I like your last 4 matchups. I don't have a feel for the Truex/Martin matchup.

 

[Maxx40]

good luck tonight, i'm with ya on two match-ups against ya on one

hope you have a great year!

 

[madshooter]

dave :cheers: GL tonight

Maxx :cheers: GL tonight


Lets win some money tonight

 

[daveniner]

Not a bad night.

 

[madshooter]

thanks dave, could have been better


Bud Shootout

Jr over Gordon -145 .5 unit

Truex Jr over Martin -115 .25 unit

Edwards over Mears +100 .25 unit

McMurray over Busch +135 .25 unit

Blaney over Yeley +100 .25 unit

Waltrip over Jarrett -125 .25 unit

Jr to win @ +385 .25 unit

Stewart to win @ +700 .15 unit

Edwards to win @ +1600 .10 unit

Kahne to win @ +2500 .05 unit

Had a good feel for who would run well as Jr and Stewart pretty much had the best cars, split on the matchups and had the race winner for a small profit. +.87 units on the night. I played 3 qualifying matchups a few days ago but didn't get a chance to post them before the lines went off, so I will not bother posting and counting them against my record.


Figures too, hit all 3 qualifying matchups.

 

[daveniner]

Duel matchups are up, on thegreek.

 

[madshooter]

Duels


Race 1

Newman over Montoya -125 .5 unit

Sorrenson over Montoya -105 .5 unit

Johnson over Jr. +100 .5 unit



Race 2

Kyle Busch over Hamlin -125 .5 unit

Stewart over Gordon -110 .5 unit

Carpentier over Villenueve -110 .5 unit


.05 units to win on the following

Vickers @ +3500

Mears @ +1100

Blaney @ +1500

Gilliand @ +2200

Waltrip @ +2000

probably donating on these, but just playing them because of value.




Heading over to Daytona in the morning, hopefully we will be in for some great racing tomm. Taking my 4 yr old daughter to her 2nd race @ Daytona, hopefully she will be good. Hope all you guys have a great day tomm. and kill the books. :cheers:

 

[madshooter]

locked in


Waltrip over Blaney -125 .25 unit money;

Bowyer over Burton +115 .25 unit money;

Reutimann over Allmendinger +100 .25 unit money;


the numbers are close on all these matchups looking at preseason single car testing numbers and where they qualified looking at the last Dega race last year. Looking to go small as qualifying at Daytona is really a crap shoot, never know when you will be running into a head wind or being helped by one. Hope we all have a great year this year. :cheers:

Guess I did post them after all, up +1.65 units after shootout and qualifying.

 

[daveniner]

I like the value, in your picks to win. I might have a little change on Gilliland and Kvapil, just because of the value.

Good luck and have a great time at the races.

 

[B.A.R.]

Good stuff madshooter

 

[TWITA]

Good luck this weekend mad!

:Cheers:

 

[madshooter]

Duels


Race 1

Newman over Montoya -125 .5 unit

Sorrenson over Montoya -105 .5 unit

Johnson over Jr. +100 .5 unit

Race 2

Kyle Busch over Hamlin -125 .5 unit

Stewart over Gordon -110 .5 unit

Carpentier over Villenueve -110 .5 unit

.05 units to win on the following

Vickers @ +3500

Mears @ +1100

Blaney @ +1500

Gilliand @ +2200

Waltrip @ +2000

probably donating on these, but just playing them because of value

Heading over to Daytona in the morning, hopefully we will be in for some great racing tomm. Taking my 4 yr old daughter to her 2nd race @ Daytona, hopefully she will be good. Hope all you guys have a great day tomm. and kill the books. :cheers:

Had a great time yesterday, weather was little cool, but the racing was pretty decent. Traffic sucked as usual.Hit 4 of 6 matchups going 0 fer on the to wins, kinda figured I would lose those , but only lost .25 units total. Up .63 units on the day, standing at +2.28 units for speedweeks 2008


Dave, BAR, TWITA :cheers: thanks guys, hope to kill the books this weekend.

 

[madshooter]

Truck Race

Sprague over Skinner -115 .5 unit

Bodine over Hornaday -105 .5 unit

Cook over Crafton -125 .5 unit

Setzer over Gaughan -125 .5 unit



Bodine to win @ +650 .10 unit

Crawford to win @ +1250 .05 unit

Cook to win @ +1250 .05 unit

Setzer to win @ +2500 .05 unit

Field to win @ +812 .10 unit



If this was a mile and a half track I would be all over Kyle Busch, but it is Daytona, expect the unexpected. Going for value on the to wins , at worst I will lose .35 units, but the return could be much greater. GL everyone, hope we hit em hard tonight. :cheers:

 

[madshooter]

Truck Race

Sprague over Skinner -115 .5 unit

Bodine over Hornaday -105 .5 unit

Cook over Crafton -125 .5 unit

Setzer over Gaughan -125 .5 unit

Bodine to win @ +650 .10 unit

Crawford to win @ +1250 .05 unit

Cook to win @ +1250 .05 unit

Setzer to win @ +2500 .05 unit

Field to win @ +812 .10 unit

If this was a mile and a half track I would be all over Kyle Busch, but it is Daytona, expect the unexpected. Going for value on the to wins , at worst I will lose .35 units, but the return could be much greater. GL everyone, hope we hit em hard tonight. :cheers:

Not a bad night, probably should have swept the matchups, but I'll take 3 out of 4 every day of the week, hit the race winner for a little profit also. Picked up 1.28 units on the night, Up 3.56 units for speedweeks so far. Hope everyone had a great night.

 

[madshooter]

Busch Race

Harvick over Kyle Busch -110 .5 unit

Bowyer over Hamlin -125 .5 unit

Truex Jr over Kenseth -115 .5 unit

Vickers over Kahne +115 .5 unit


value plays

Truex Jr. to win @ +1285 .05 unit

Labonte to win @ +1515 .05 unit

Leffler to win @ +2450 .05 unit



Looking to keep the train going today, still deciding on who I really like to win today, will add 1 more to win later. Hope everyone hits em hard today. GL :cheers:

 

[Maxx40]

wow, we have the exact same card today on match-ups.

here's hoping great minds think alike, but with that comparison i would be cutting you down a few notches,LOL

GL this weekend

 

[madshooter]

Busch Race

Harvick over Kyle Busch -110 .5 unit

Bowyer over Hamlin -125 .5 unit

Truex Jr over Kenseth -115 .5 unit

Vickers over Kahne +115 .5 unit

value plays

Truex Jr. to win @ +1285 .05 unit

Labonte to win @ +1515 .05 unit

Leffler to win @ +2450 .05 unit

Looking to keep the train going today, still deciding on who I really like to win today, will add 1 more to win later. Hope everyone hits em hard today. GL :cheers:

all in all a shitty day, probably should have gone 3 out of 4 at least, Truex was a winner till about 1/2 a lap to go.Will hopefully bounce back today. Down -1.32 units on the day, Up +2.24 units on speedweeks 2008

 

[madshooter]

Daytona 500

Waltrip over Vickers +125 2 units

Mears over Newman -115 2 units

Edwards over Martin -125 2 units

Harvick over Hamlin +110 2 units

Kyle Busch over Hamlin +100 1 unit

Stewart over Johnson -115 1 unit

Kurt Busch over Kenseth -115 1 unit


Stewart top 3 finish @ +140 .25 unit

Kenseth top 3 finish @ +850 .10 unit

Edwards top 3 finish @ +800 .07 unit

Mears top 3 finish @ +800 .07 unit

Vickers top 3 finish @ +2000 .05 unit


Stewart to win @ +535 .50 unit

Vickers to win @ +7500 .10 unit

Kyle Busch to win @ +1365 .10 unit

Blaney to win @ +4000 .05 unit

Edwards to win @ +3000 .07 unit

Mears to win @ +2800 .07 unit



kinda sucks , should be at the 500 right now, but my ticket guy didn't come through this year, 1st time in the last 9 yrs he hasn't, thought about going and scalping but the way tickets were going on ebay and stub hub and that, this year they just seemed to be way overpirced, oh well will have to enjoy the race in HD. GL everyone, hope we hit the books hard today. :cheers:

 

[madshooter]

adding

another .50 units on Stewart top 3 finish @ +140

Kyle Busch top 3 finish @ +375 .50 unit

 

[madshooter]

Daytona 500

Waltrip over Vickers +125 2 units

Mears over Newman -115 2 units

Edwards over Martin -125 2 units

Harvick over Hamlin +110 2 units

Kyle Busch over Hamlin +100 1 unit

Stewart over Johnson -115 1 unit

Kurt Busch over Kenseth -115 1 unit

Stewart top 3 finish @ +140 .25 unit

Kenseth top 3 finish @ +850 .10 unit

Edwards top 3 finish @ +800 .07 unit

Mears top 3 finish @ +800 .07 unit

Vickers top 3 finish @ +2000 .05 unit

Stewart to win @ +535 .50 unit

Vickers to win @ +7500 .10 unit

Kyle Busch to win @ +1365 .10 unit

Blaney to win @ +4000 .05 unit

Edwards to win @ +3000 .07 unit

Mears to win @ +2800 .07 unit

ow, 1/2 a lap from having an outstanding day, oh well, Stewart should have stayed up top to at least try and block. Up+ 2.07 units on the day and UP +4.31 units on speedweeks 2008. I thought about the newman play and to be honest I don't think I would have put anything on him at 70-1 odds , not really someone you would think would contend for the win. Congrats to the Newman backers as he was a nice payday.


forgot the added plays, add another +.20 units to make it +4.51 units for speedweeks.