DapperDan MLB Picks '16
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GL tonight, Dan
DapperDan
Pretty much a regular
ughhh gotta do one last play here...after I posted I glanced at card and feel obligated to bet this game since I been riding chacin all season and this is best opportunity to get him at great + odds.....may the gods be with us
4/28/16
Atlanta (+170) Risking 1 unit to win 1.7 units
but im officially gone tmrw and friday, no looking at numbers, scores, forums...im audi....see ya over the wkend
4/28/16
Atlanta (+170) Risking 1 unit to win 1.7 units
but im officially gone tmrw and friday, no looking at numbers, scores, forums...im audi....see ya over the wkend
DapperDan
Pretty much a regular
4/28/16 Results: 1-0 +1.7 units
Had a nice refreshing day off after a nice +170 dog win and now its back to the numbers...seeing a few I already like for tmrw, will post more tmrw
4/30/16
Tigers (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
Tigers should go on a little streak here their bats have been crushing it the last 3 games after going through a little bit of a slump. I watched them against sonny gray and they were just crushing everything even good pitches out of the zone. look for the trend to continue. Zimmerman is looking as good as ever this year throwing his slider 10% more often than years past and it has usually been his most effective pitch. Tyler Duffey is essentially a two pitch pitcher (which I love fading, but he throws a changeup 5% of the time if that counts) and alternates between his fastball and curve. Tigers lineup over the last two seasons are the 5th most effective team against curveballs hitting at a wCB/c 0.64 rate. I think this will be a low scoring game but Zimmm should pull out the win.
Had a nice refreshing day off after a nice +170 dog win and now its back to the numbers...seeing a few I already like for tmrw, will post more tmrw
4/30/16
Tigers (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
Tigers should go on a little streak here their bats have been crushing it the last 3 games after going through a little bit of a slump. I watched them against sonny gray and they were just crushing everything even good pitches out of the zone. look for the trend to continue. Zimmerman is looking as good as ever this year throwing his slider 10% more often than years past and it has usually been his most effective pitch. Tyler Duffey is essentially a two pitch pitcher (which I love fading, but he throws a changeup 5% of the time if that counts) and alternates between his fastball and curve. Tigers lineup over the last two seasons are the 5th most effective team against curveballs hitting at a wCB/c 0.64 rate. I think this will be a low scoring game but Zimmm should pull out the win.
With ya... GL Dan
DapperDan
Pretty much a regular
4/30 ADDING:
CWS/BAL FF Under 4.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
CWS FF (+150) Risking 1 unit to win 1.5 units
Some people say Latos is "due" for regression, but looking at his numbers I disagree. Why? Because pitchers are constantly evolving and changing things and Latos has become an elite pitcher over the last two seasons. He has learned to stay away from his changeup which has been his worst pitch and effectively use his splitfinger fastball which I love a starter with a good SF. He has learned which pitches to throw in different situations and is keeping hitters guessing. His contact% and (o-contact%) is at all an time high but hes creating poor contact, 28.8% of which are soft hit balls (thats 4th best in the league amongst starters). He has the 6th lowest LD% at 12.3%. His heatmaps will show that he is finnally learned to keep his splitfinger in the strike zone and has been able to distribute his pitches evenly throughout the strikezone (last year he was predicatbly living in the bottom of the strike zone and not keeping them strikes) Last year, he had a few games where he came out struggling badly but despite that he still ended the year with 3.69 xFIP. Sure he has been hit hard in the past by this orioles team but that was back in 2014 before he got his splitfinger and in that game he threw his awful changeup at an all time high 25% (why I do not know?). Theyve been pulling him early so lets go with the FF to be safe as I also love the Britton and the O's bullpen. Those who believe Latos is going to regress automatically point to his LOB% and BABIP, although this is sometimes the case, its not always the case with all pitchers as Arrieta sports a 95.2% LOB and .188 BABIP this season, yet I dont see anyone saying arrieta is due to regress. sometimes a pitchers stuff is just that nasty.
CWS/BAL FF Under 4.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
CWS FF (+150) Risking 1 unit to win 1.5 units
Some people say Latos is "due" for regression, but looking at his numbers I disagree. Why? Because pitchers are constantly evolving and changing things and Latos has become an elite pitcher over the last two seasons. He has learned to stay away from his changeup which has been his worst pitch and effectively use his splitfinger fastball which I love a starter with a good SF. He has learned which pitches to throw in different situations and is keeping hitters guessing. His contact% and (o-contact%) is at all an time high but hes creating poor contact, 28.8% of which are soft hit balls (thats 4th best in the league amongst starters). He has the 6th lowest LD% at 12.3%. His heatmaps will show that he is finnally learned to keep his splitfinger in the strike zone and has been able to distribute his pitches evenly throughout the strikezone (last year he was predicatbly living in the bottom of the strike zone and not keeping them strikes) Last year, he had a few games where he came out struggling badly but despite that he still ended the year with 3.69 xFIP. Sure he has been hit hard in the past by this orioles team but that was back in 2014 before he got his splitfinger and in that game he threw his awful changeup at an all time high 25% (why I do not know?). Theyve been pulling him early so lets go with the FF to be safe as I also love the Britton and the O's bullpen. Those who believe Latos is going to regress automatically point to his LOB% and BABIP, although this is sometimes the case, its not always the case with all pitchers as Arrieta sports a 95.2% LOB and .188 BABIP this season, yet I dont see anyone saying arrieta is due to regress. sometimes a pitchers stuff is just that nasty.
yesterdqya results: 1-2 -1.2
5/1
Cardinals (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
LAA/TX Under 8.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
GL Dan :cheers3:
DapperDan
Pretty much a regular
5/5 Results : 0-1 -1 units
Okay a few things, Im getting the fuk out of this slump. Luckily I have actually been killing draftkings lately despite my regular wagering slump. Been hardcore number crunching all last night and all day today. Fuk betting just one game a day I cant stand that as I had a few winners circled yesterday but just went with detroit. Got to just adapt and readjust and stick to the numbers. Need to pay more attention to certain red flags and focus on the situational angles as well. Going to try to put out more writeups for all you as I feel like it also helps me with my picks visualizing and putting on paper the angles I like (also for future refrence .i.e. what angles worked well and which did not)
5/6
Detroit (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
Although I have been riding Hamels a lot this year, I feel like this is a good spot to fade him. He was not himself at all last game coming back from a groin injury and he could still be feeling the effects. Not only is this Tiger lineup familiar with him, but they have hit him well. Hamels has also struggled with his control, having his career low zone % at 40 and a terrible 21% in his last outing. We all know how well this Tigers team has hit lefties last year and they continue to hit them hard this season sporting the second best hard % at 37.3%. Tigers also have an edge in bullpen as Rangers have a bottom 5 bullpen in regards to WHIP at 1.4 this season and 1.31 over the last 2 seasons. If youve been reading this thread then you already know how I feel about Zimm.
Athletics FF (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Jiminez as usual is struggling with control sporting the league lowest zone % at 39.4%. The scouting report for him is in on this and teams are only swinging at 40% of his pitches. The A's are not ones to swing at pitches outside of the zone with an o-zone% of 26.7% . Last year when they faced jimeniz they only swung at 37% of his pitches and 22% outside the zone. In 2014, it was even less swinging at just 27.5% of his pitches and 10% outside of the zone. In those two games he pitches a total of 7.1 innings, gave up 11 hits, 7 walks and 10 earned runs. Rich hill on the other side has been fantastic. His curveball and slider have a 13-16 mph differential from his fastball and they have been dominant. Orioles active roster has struggled he most against the curve over the last 2 years as they hit are the 2nd lowest at hitting it with a -.82 wCB/c. Lets take them in the FF as I feel like its an easier cash than the full game.
LAD/Tor Under 8 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
I watched all of Maeda last game and really liked what I saw from him. Both these pitchers have an arsenal of different pitch types and ways to throw them that will leave the hitters guessing. Nor has either team faced either pitcher so I think this will be a low scoring affair. I think the power of these two lineups are keeping this line higher than it should be.
Okay a few things, Im getting the fuk out of this slump. Luckily I have actually been killing draftkings lately despite my regular wagering slump. Been hardcore number crunching all last night and all day today. Fuk betting just one game a day I cant stand that as I had a few winners circled yesterday but just went with detroit. Got to just adapt and readjust and stick to the numbers. Need to pay more attention to certain red flags and focus on the situational angles as well. Going to try to put out more writeups for all you as I feel like it also helps me with my picks visualizing and putting on paper the angles I like (also for future refrence .i.e. what angles worked well and which did not)
5/6
Detroit (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
Although I have been riding Hamels a lot this year, I feel like this is a good spot to fade him. He was not himself at all last game coming back from a groin injury and he could still be feeling the effects. Not only is this Tiger lineup familiar with him, but they have hit him well. Hamels has also struggled with his control, having his career low zone % at 40 and a terrible 21% in his last outing. We all know how well this Tigers team has hit lefties last year and they continue to hit them hard this season sporting the second best hard % at 37.3%. Tigers also have an edge in bullpen as Rangers have a bottom 5 bullpen in regards to WHIP at 1.4 this season and 1.31 over the last 2 seasons. If youve been reading this thread then you already know how I feel about Zimm.
Athletics FF (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Jiminez as usual is struggling with control sporting the league lowest zone % at 39.4%. The scouting report for him is in on this and teams are only swinging at 40% of his pitches. The A's are not ones to swing at pitches outside of the zone with an o-zone% of 26.7% . Last year when they faced jimeniz they only swung at 37% of his pitches and 22% outside the zone. In 2014, it was even less swinging at just 27.5% of his pitches and 10% outside of the zone. In those two games he pitches a total of 7.1 innings, gave up 11 hits, 7 walks and 10 earned runs. Rich hill on the other side has been fantastic. His curveball and slider have a 13-16 mph differential from his fastball and they have been dominant. Orioles active roster has struggled he most against the curve over the last 2 years as they hit are the 2nd lowest at hitting it with a -.82 wCB/c. Lets take them in the FF as I feel like its an easier cash than the full game.
LAD/Tor Under 8 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
I watched all of Maeda last game and really liked what I saw from him. Both these pitchers have an arsenal of different pitch types and ways to throw them that will leave the hitters guessing. Nor has either team faced either pitcher so I think this will be a low scoring affair. I think the power of these two lineups are keeping this line higher than it should be.
Nice work, Sat - GL Dan
DapperDan
Pretty much a regular
Almost had it.....
yesterday results : 1-1 -.17 units
5/10 :
Ari/Col Over 11 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Detroit (+170) Risking 1 unit to win 1.7 units
Yanks -1 RL (-133) Risking 1.33 units to win 1 units
Sea/TB FF Under 3.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
yesterday results : 1-1 -.17 units
5/10 :
Ari/Col Over 11 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Detroit (+170) Risking 1 unit to win 1.7 units
Yanks -1 RL (-133) Risking 1.33 units to win 1 units
Sea/TB FF Under 3.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
GL Dan
GL Dan
Nice work Fri, Dan. GL in TB today
GL Dan
DapperDan
Pretty much a regular
Yesterday Results: 5/16: 1-2 -1 units
Thats it! no more two team parlays, im like 0-10 on the season and its driving me nuts
Last time Detroit played Hughes a few weeks ago they made 96% contact with all his pitches. 100 % contact with those out of the zone.
5/17
Detroit (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Blue Jays (-140) Risking 1.4 units to win 1 units
Thats it! no more two team parlays, im like 0-10 on the season and its driving me nuts
Last time Detroit played Hughes a few weeks ago they made 96% contact with all his pitches. 100 % contact with those out of the zone.
5/17
Detroit (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Blue Jays (-140) Risking 1.4 units to win 1 units
DapperDan
Pretty much a regular
Yesterday Results: 1-3 -2.4 units
liking this card a lot
5/18
Boston Gm1 (+100) Risking 1.5 units to win 1 units
Phil (+100) Risking 1 unit to win 1 units
Det/Min Over 9 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
Hou/CWS Over 9 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
liking this card a lot
5/18
Boston Gm1 (+100) Risking 1.5 units to win 1 units
Phil (+100) Risking 1 unit to win 1 units
Det/Min Over 9 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
Hou/CWS Over 9 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
DapperDan
Pretty much a regular
yesterday results: 2-2-1 -.75 units
Feel like the bookies have been doing a real good job mind fucking me with their lines and line movements, scaring me off plays and baiting me on bad ones. Need to just focus on the numbers and not look too much into the numbers the bookies put out there, its just not my forte. people who excel at reading lines and line movement neglect to realize that although they might find a winning pattern for a while, bookies can just as easily adapt and re-evaluate and change their line patterns as well. just need to focus on winners
two big bets for me tmrw, might add one tmrw after lineups released
5/19
Seattle (+115) Risking 2 units to win 2.3 units
Colorado (+115) Risking 2 units to win 2.3 units
Feel like the bookies have been doing a real good job mind fucking me with their lines and line movements, scaring me off plays and baiting me on bad ones. Need to just focus on the numbers and not look too much into the numbers the bookies put out there, its just not my forte. people who excel at reading lines and line movement neglect to realize that although they might find a winning pattern for a while, bookies can just as easily adapt and re-evaluate and change their line patterns as well. just need to focus on winners
two big bets for me tmrw, might add one tmrw after lineups released
5/19
Seattle (+115) Risking 2 units to win 2.3 units
Colorado (+115) Risking 2 units to win 2.3 units
Rox :shake2:
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