DapperDan MLB Picks '16

DapperDan

Pretty much a regular
Hello All,

I am new poster, although I am not new to gambling. Im bout to turn 30 and have been a regular gambler since I was 18. I have frequented these forums and have followed along with some of your picks but never posted. I am migrating from another forum I was a regular poster on for several years (another popular gamblers forum) but I just grew tired of their shit. Banning good people for nothing, banning people for supposed "rules" broken but then the admins break these retarded rules they banned someone for the week before. Plus the discussion has always been much superior here and has improved over time as the other place has degraded. So anyways, I used to post under the alias smutbucket but Ive matured into dapperdan now so you may have seen me around. I only bet college football and mlb, I used to bet other sports but I always excelled the most in college football and mlb so I stuck with them and dedicated the most time to them.
The last 4 years my baseball season long thread records are as follows:
2012: 27-21 +11.75 units
2013: 96-91 + 6.69 units
2014: 144-117-3 +17.06 units
2015 : 48-63 -22.55

TOTAL THREAD RESULTS FOR MLB:
315-292 (52%) +12.95 units

(Am I allowed to post links from other forums or is that against the rules?)

As you can see I had a rough year last year and am trying to make up for it. My average wager size is 1.1 units as the majority of my bets will be but occasionally I will have a 2 unit bet or a half unit bet and no more than that. I will usually post just 1-3 picks a day, I do the daily grind every year until about june-july then I stop MLB for the season and take a break before football comes around. I try to do writeups for baseball but as many numbers their are in baseball and as long as the season is I just dont have the time to do it everyday (ncaaf I post writeups for 90% of my picks) So far this season I am 13-7 +5.42 units on my posted picks (on the other forum) but for the integrity of this thread I will start from scratch here....if I am allowed to I will post a link here if thats acceptable If someone knows I didnt feel like reading the long user terms as always and just clicked "I agree" like i do with all user terms. I dont use twitter or anything like that but thats what pissed me off on the other forums was seeing people getting banned for posting twitter accounts and then admins posting their twitter accounts. Also some good people I know got banned for petty shit when they were good respectable posters, I think one of them is a regular here too, good ole pacocn :). hope to see ya around!

Anyways, will be posting daily and look forward to any feedback.
 
(Am I allowed to post links from other forums or is that against the rules?)

What sort of link are you trying to provide?

Honestly, answer is generally no, but willing to look at it...
 
Thanks all for the warm welcome. Good to see ya Biff :D

What sort of link are you trying to provide?

Honestly, answer is generally no, but willing to look at it...

a link to my past posted picks in a season long thread in another forum


Decided to go the extra mile today and got a nice writeup already written up for an evening total I really like. Just waiting to post to see if the number gets any better :). Working on looking at a couple more things on the card, will post by 4 when I gotta go to work
 
Alright just locked in my plays now because I have some errands to run before work and not gonna Im pretty confident this number is not gonna get any better.

4/12/16


Nationals -1 RL (-118) Risking 1.18 units to win 1 units
Mariners (-126) Risking 1.26 units to win 1 units
Mets/Marlins Under 6 (+100) Risking 1 units to win 1 units
These are easily two of the top 5 pitchers with the nastiest stuff in baseball. This will be one hell of a game to watch. Sure Fernandez is coming off a rough outing (still got 13 SOs) but that was against one of the best hitting teams in baseball. And although Fernandez has been hit hard by some of these mets in the past, that was back in 2013, before Fernandez refined his slider (also had 9 SOs in 25 ABs). Marlins have yet to see Syndergaards nasty stuff, and although they hit the young Matz hard yesterday there is a large (think the largest in baseball) difference between how the marlins active roster hit lefties (3rd best) and righties (3rd worst) over the last 2 years. Not to mention although it was only one game, all of syndergaards pitches increased in velocity so far this season, including a huge increase in his slider. Like I said, this will be one hell of a game to watch.
 
Good to see ya pac!

Yesterday Results: 1-1-1 -.26 units


Wash/Atl Over 8 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Both pitchers struggle against lefties. both teams put out lefty dominant lineups. both pitchers struggle period. number is low due to bats struggling on both sides as of late but look for that to change tonight. strasburg scratched and in steps roark. should cash easily.


Don't usually like to do this in one game but I couldnt decide which I liked more so I just locked in both here


Indians (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Indians/Rays Under 7 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
 
Yesterday Results: 2-1 +.9 units

4/14
Phils (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Rays -1 RL (+105) Risking 1 units to win 1.05 units
 
Nice to have U here smut, ur in good ''banned'' company as many are in the same sit. along with Wire to Wire and bloodhound and prob ten more.. At least here they just slap my hand(so far) :)

If u could bold ur winning picks for the ole blind hound it would help me a bunch. I look forward to ur plays and reasoning

GL on the season
 
Thanks...


Yesterday Results: 2-1 +1 units


Thread Total: 5-3 +1.64 units


4/15
Brewers (+136) Risking 1 units to win 1.36 units
Mia/Atl over 8 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
Indians (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
 
Yesterday results: 2-1 +1.21 units

4/16/16
Mariners/Yanks Over 7.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Twins (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
Oakland -1 RL (-103) Risking 1.03 units to win 1 units
 
Yesterday Results: 2-2 -.4 units


4/17/16
Atlanta (+125) Risking 1 unit to win 1.25 units
Chacin isnt the same pitcher he was all those years in Colorado. He developed a cutter as well as made improvements to his slider and changeup in 2015. He's a pitcher with a nice arsenal of pitches and is experienced in using them. Even though the marlins have hit him well in the past, they have not hit the new chacin well at all. On the other side we have Jared Cosart, essentially a two pitch pitcher (throws fastballs 70%+ of the time) and his velo is a little down this season. As I stated in a past writeup this marlins lineup really struggles with righties and the braves lineup which is lefty dominant should find their bats against cosart who theyve hit well in the past (.359 wOBA) and has the same type stuff he has always had. There was a lot of fuss about the braves losing first 7 games but 4 of those were against the nats and 3 from cards. I think they complete the sweep on sunday.
 
Good to hear scarf!

4/17 adding
Royals (-103) Risking 1.03 units to win 1 units
CWS/TB over 7 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
 
day results: 1-2 -.98 units




this line stinks but I cant see myself not taking this being the only 11 am game, and I wont back boston in this spot so toronto it is


4/18
Blue Jays (+100) Risking 1 units to win 1 unit
 
Thanks fellas, had some luck already fall my way today



4/18
Mets/Phil Under 7 (+110) Risking 1 unit to win 1.1 units
Rockies (+123) Risking 1 unit to win 1.23 units
 
Yesterday Results: 2-0-1 +2.23 units

Thread Total: 10-8 +3.7 units

4/19/16
Yankees TT Over 4 (-125) Risking 1.88 units to win 1.5 units
Rays (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
 
Argh. yanks continue to struggle to get hits with RISP....really badly want to chase that TT over today but I will lay off...strong lean though

4/19 Results: 1-1 -.88 units

Happy 4/20
Angels FF +.5 (-105) Risking .53 units to win .5 units
Angels/CWS under 7 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Pit/Pads Over 7 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
 
and the darn Rays and Archer let us down again.

If U have any good luck left over to share I would appreciate U sending some my way
Thanks and GL Dan
 
Ya I had money on archer last game and watched him and didnt like what I saw at all

feeling confident today on the brew tt over, many factors on our side,

yesterday results: 3-1 +2.64 units

4/21
Milwaukee TT Over 4 (-125) Risking 1.88 units to win 1.5 units
2 Team Parlay (+120) Cubs + Giants. Risking 1 unit to win 1.2 units
 
writeup for you all and my biggest bet of the season to date


4/22
Rays (-105) Risking 2.1 units to win 2 units
Ive been chomping at the bit to fade CC sabathia against a righty dominant lineup, and the day has finally come against this rays lineup. Yesterday the rays put out 8 righties against lefty price who doesnt even have splits that show he struggles against righties, so I expect them to do the same against the lefty CC because his splits show a different story. In the last 3 years, CC vs righties has averaged .373 wOBA, 3.82 xFIP, 1.53 WHIP, 18.2 K%, and 6.5 BB%, compared to lefties he is .wOBA .264, xFIP 3.05, .95 WHIP, 28.6 K%, and 5.6 BB%. That is a huge distinct difference in numbers that clearly shows his struggles vs righties. Also CC's velo is down on all of his pitches this season from 1-3 mph and so far this season he has gotten away with throwing his cutter 36% of the time, which in years past was his worse pitch according to weighted values and he only threw it very rarely. Moore on the other side I am not worried about, he can hold his own and has shown some great stuff so far this season. He should do fine against this struggling yankee lineup. I will also take tampa TT over for a unit once it is released.
 
Dapper, i don't know if it's public record, but we can thank
Evan Longoria for CC's struggle with alcohol, he has absolutely tagged
cc in the past, hopefully today won't lead to a relapse and CC can deal
with a tagging the healthy way (sharing thoughts and feelings). Go Rays!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
paco :cheers3:

4/22/16 Adding

Rays TT Over 4 (-120) Risking .6 units to win .5 units
SEA/LAA Under 7.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
 
Seeing a lot the same today Dapper D. Have that parlay and on BrewCrew and Tampa. Per your chomping at the bit re: C.C. I am in a similar hunger for Nicasio against a dominant LH lineup. Bol :cheers3:
 
Seeing a lot the same today Dapper D. Have that parlay and on BrewCrew and Tampa. Per your chomping at the bit re: C.C. I am in a similar hunger for Nicasio against a dominant LH lineup. Bol :cheers3:

nice spot ya nicasio playing against an all righty team today tho :(

yesterday results: 1-2 -1.7 units

brutal rays game. moore was pitching superb, CC was pitching like shit but got out of jams. and still lose. I had to stop watching when the yanks stole home. I knew we were losing when that happened. just the way the cookie crumbles sometimes thats why I dont weight my bets larger than 2x....

anyways on to tmrw....one so far for the afternoon

4/23/16
Detroit (+110) Risking 1 unit to win 1.1 units

I get a real scary vibe from this game. all the numbers support detroirt quite heavily yet their home underdogs? in the past this has not been a good a sign. but Im always one to stick with the numbers and its quite clear detroit is the play
 
ugh, pretty sure I can spot the bait but I just dont have the discipline to lay off it....I just dont understand how they know these things based off the available numbers.....Roark got 15 strikeouts against the hottest hitting team in the last 7 days....thats 75% more strikeouts than hes gotten all season in 3 games against teams that were struggling to hit....baseball makes you wonder sometimes...and the question you need to ask yourself is do oddsmakers know this was going to happen? or are they just setting the table based on the market? either way they are usually spotable and I just got to learn to atleast lay off the bait

Adding:
Braves (+141) Risking 1 unit to win 1.41 units
Marlins (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
 
Ice cold.

yesterday results: 0-4 -4.25 units

4/24/16:
Pirates (+100) Risking 1 unit to win 1 unit
Rays (+100) Risking 1 unit to win 1 unit
 
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