DapperDan
Pretty much a regular
Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 8 Results: 2-8 (-6.53 units)
Season YTD: 36 - 49 (-18.51 units)
Been studying all night long….lets go…..time to turn the season around or you can fade me….look at my history to determine which is more likely
Week 9:
Ole Miss +5.5 (-104)
Rutgers (-109)
Arkansas ML (-115)
Kansas ML (-150)
Pitt/NC State Over 53.5 (-108)
Vanderbilt (-135)
Cinn ML (-154)
Miami/Stanford Over 45 (-110)
Texas AM ML (-126)
Ole Miss +5.5 (-104)
I love ole miss in this spot getting this many points. Last week was a hose job by somehow not covering the spread as it was the right side to take - crazy things just happen in football sometimes. We have one of the best offenses against one of the best defenses in the league - but I think Oklahoma’s stats are a little padded from the shittyer teams they played like Auburn and racked up 9 sacks on Jackson Arnold who literally sat in the backfield and made no attempt to throw before getting hit. Chambliss and Lacy in the backfield may be one of the best in the league and TE Dae’Quan Wright is an absolute beast. Venables loves to blitz and I think Kiffin will be ready and has the weapons to avoid the pressure and put up points. Oklahoma on offense has not run the ball well - ranking 101st in ypc - which has been the bigger issue with Ole Miss’s defense but Oklahoma is not equipped to exploit that - they prefer to throw. Ole Miss secondary has been good, ranking 24th in ypp and 46th in opponent completion %. Mateer hasn’t been living up to the hype as he ranks 90th in ypp, 93rd in completion %, and 71st in PFF. His receiving corps has struggled too ranking 51st in PFF. THeir defense has won them games but in this one I think Ole Miss’s offense will be too much to handle - worst case it will be a close one.
Rutgers (-109)
It’s finally time to back Rutgers!....I think. They’ve had a tough schedule going from Iowa to Minnesota to Washington then Oregon. They should feel some relief going against Purdue and their offensive PFF numbers are still strong - ranking 10th overall, 32nd in passing, 23rd in receiving and 3rd in rushing. They should score at will against Purdue’s defense who is ranked 120th overall, 84th in coverage, 114th against the run, and 108th in tackling. Granted - Rutgers defense has been horrendous which is wild for a Schiano team but Purdue’s offense may just be inept enough to stutter themselves and not keep pace with Rutgers offense in this one - Purdue's offense ranks 92nd overall, 121st in pass blocking, 53rd in passing, 103rd in receiving and 106th in rushing.
Kansas ML (-150)
Kansas has not beat Kansas State in like 15+ years? Today's the day that changes at home and with the better team on paper - according to PFF - both Kansas’s offense and defense outrank them overall and in most categories - their coverage has been excellent - ranking 17th in the nation.
Pitt/NC State Over 53.5 (-108)
Both these defenses have been decimated by injuries - with NC State losing 5 of its top 7 DBs and their leading LB tackler - Sean Brown. Pitt has 7 defensive players listed as questionable. Even before the injuries - NC State’s defense has struggled heavily - especially giving up big plays ranking 110th in plays over 30+ allowed. Both offenses have been great as big explosive plays - ranking 24th in plays over 30+ yards. Both teams rely on the pass, average over 30 ppg on offense, and defenses are struggling - this game sails over the total.
Vanderbilt (-135)
At the end of the day you Pribula vs Paiva and I’ll take Paiva over Pribula 1000x over. Granted his offensive line has struggled and the Missouri D-Line should be tough - but Paiva is one of the best QBs in the league under pressure according to PFF.
Cinn ML (-154)
Baylor’s defense has struggled - they are very banged up - and have been especially poor against the run. Thats where this Cinncinnati team thrives - all around actually on offense they are ELITE - ranking 3rd overall, 2nd in passing, 9th in receiving, 4th in rushing and 15th in run blocking according to PFF. These are huge edges against a Baylor defense and I would have expected Baylor’s offensive numbers to be better too but the rank 57th overall, 62nd in the pass, 41st in receiving, 36th in rushing and 118th in run blocking - leaving strong advantages for the Cinn defense - who is also one of the best tacjkiung teams in the nation ranking 7th.
Miami/Stanford Over 45 (-110)
Miami should put up 40+ themselves. I guess because of the wind gusts they have this total set so low? I’ll hammer the over.
Don’t have writeups for the last two….been looking at way too many numbers this week and mulling over these games…we won’t give up.
Texas AM ML (-126)
Arkansas ML (-115)
Week 8: (2-8) -6.53 Units
Miami -12.5 (-102) L
Cal -7.5 (-105) L
GT/Duke Over 60 (-103) L
Baylor +3 (-101) L
Vanderbilt ML (-122) W
South Carolina +5.5 (-110) L
Ole Miss +7.5 (-115) L
Tenn/Alabama over 58.5 (-110) L
Missouri/Auburn Under 43.5 (+100) W
BYU/Utah Over 49 (-107) L
Week 8 Results: 2-8 (-6.53 units)
Season YTD: 36 - 49 (-18.51 units)
Been studying all night long….lets go…..time to turn the season around or you can fade me….look at my history to determine which is more likely
Week 9:
Ole Miss +5.5 (-104)
Rutgers (-109)
Arkansas ML (-115)
Kansas ML (-150)
Pitt/NC State Over 53.5 (-108)
Vanderbilt (-135)
Cinn ML (-154)
Miami/Stanford Over 45 (-110)
Texas AM ML (-126)
Ole Miss +5.5 (-104)
I love ole miss in this spot getting this many points. Last week was a hose job by somehow not covering the spread as it was the right side to take - crazy things just happen in football sometimes. We have one of the best offenses against one of the best defenses in the league - but I think Oklahoma’s stats are a little padded from the shittyer teams they played like Auburn and racked up 9 sacks on Jackson Arnold who literally sat in the backfield and made no attempt to throw before getting hit. Chambliss and Lacy in the backfield may be one of the best in the league and TE Dae’Quan Wright is an absolute beast. Venables loves to blitz and I think Kiffin will be ready and has the weapons to avoid the pressure and put up points. Oklahoma on offense has not run the ball well - ranking 101st in ypc - which has been the bigger issue with Ole Miss’s defense but Oklahoma is not equipped to exploit that - they prefer to throw. Ole Miss secondary has been good, ranking 24th in ypp and 46th in opponent completion %. Mateer hasn’t been living up to the hype as he ranks 90th in ypp, 93rd in completion %, and 71st in PFF. His receiving corps has struggled too ranking 51st in PFF. THeir defense has won them games but in this one I think Ole Miss’s offense will be too much to handle - worst case it will be a close one.
Rutgers (-109)
It’s finally time to back Rutgers!....I think. They’ve had a tough schedule going from Iowa to Minnesota to Washington then Oregon. They should feel some relief going against Purdue and their offensive PFF numbers are still strong - ranking 10th overall, 32nd in passing, 23rd in receiving and 3rd in rushing. They should score at will against Purdue’s defense who is ranked 120th overall, 84th in coverage, 114th against the run, and 108th in tackling. Granted - Rutgers defense has been horrendous which is wild for a Schiano team but Purdue’s offense may just be inept enough to stutter themselves and not keep pace with Rutgers offense in this one - Purdue's offense ranks 92nd overall, 121st in pass blocking, 53rd in passing, 103rd in receiving and 106th in rushing.
Kansas ML (-150)
Kansas has not beat Kansas State in like 15+ years? Today's the day that changes at home and with the better team on paper - according to PFF - both Kansas’s offense and defense outrank them overall and in most categories - their coverage has been excellent - ranking 17th in the nation.
Pitt/NC State Over 53.5 (-108)
Both these defenses have been decimated by injuries - with NC State losing 5 of its top 7 DBs and their leading LB tackler - Sean Brown. Pitt has 7 defensive players listed as questionable. Even before the injuries - NC State’s defense has struggled heavily - especially giving up big plays ranking 110th in plays over 30+ allowed. Both offenses have been great as big explosive plays - ranking 24th in plays over 30+ yards. Both teams rely on the pass, average over 30 ppg on offense, and defenses are struggling - this game sails over the total.
Vanderbilt (-135)
At the end of the day you Pribula vs Paiva and I’ll take Paiva over Pribula 1000x over. Granted his offensive line has struggled and the Missouri D-Line should be tough - but Paiva is one of the best QBs in the league under pressure according to PFF.
Cinn ML (-154)
Baylor’s defense has struggled - they are very banged up - and have been especially poor against the run. Thats where this Cinncinnati team thrives - all around actually on offense they are ELITE - ranking 3rd overall, 2nd in passing, 9th in receiving, 4th in rushing and 15th in run blocking according to PFF. These are huge edges against a Baylor defense and I would have expected Baylor’s offensive numbers to be better too but the rank 57th overall, 62nd in the pass, 41st in receiving, 36th in rushing and 118th in run blocking - leaving strong advantages for the Cinn defense - who is also one of the best tacjkiung teams in the nation ranking 7th.
Miami/Stanford Over 45 (-110)
Miami should put up 40+ themselves. I guess because of the wind gusts they have this total set so low? I’ll hammer the over.
Don’t have writeups for the last two….been looking at way too many numbers this week and mulling over these games…we won’t give up.
Texas AM ML (-126)
Arkansas ML (-115)
Week 8: (2-8) -6.53 Units
Miami -12.5 (-102) L
Cal -7.5 (-105) L
GT/Duke Over 60 (-103) L
Baylor +3 (-101) L
Vanderbilt ML (-122) W
South Carolina +5.5 (-110) L
Ole Miss +7.5 (-115) L
Tenn/Alabama over 58.5 (-110) L
Missouri/Auburn Under 43.5 (+100) W
BYU/Utah Over 49 (-107) L
confirming these are all MLs too I forgot to label on some