Current Playoff Rankings entering Week 13 Play and Current MNC Odds

[B.A.R.]

Alabama -275

Clemson +245

Notre Dame +1000

Michigan +1000

Georgia +1200

Oklahoma +1800

LSU +100,000

Wazzou +12,500

West Virginia (LOSS - ELIMINATED)

Ohio State +2150

UCF +100,000



Thoughts and impressions?


-Obviously, as we know, LSU is a placeholder for the SEC to get two teams in if Georgia beats Bama.

-Lets say.... ND loses to USC -- Georgia loses to Bama -- Michigan loses to OSU or Northwestern? You have to eliminate Georgia with 2 losses. The same goes for Michigan. Then what if OU loses to WVU or in conference championship game? That would elevate Wazzou to 4th or 5th. They have OSU slotted so low right now that they basically are saying a lot has to happen.

-In the above scenario, what exactly is outlandish? At this point....ND losing to USC but you never really know. Every other possibility is easily alive.

-Obviously even if all of the top teams lost out, knocked each other out, UCF has exactly 0% chance of getting in.

So...

My questions...

If OSU wins out...are they liable to make some huge move that is pre-determined?

Has it already been determined that Washington State won't be granted a bid due to their conference?

Thoughts appreciated.





-

 

[B.A.R.]

Obviously you can see my angle here.... and that is putting the smallest of amounts on maybe Wazzou then OSU...


I have ND at 25-1 and OU at 28-1 already (ND week of Stanford, OU in the off-season. I am just trying to get 1 or 2 in the playoff and hedge away.

*You may ask why I do not have Michigan. Well, I am superstitious as can be. I went to play it before Wisconsin game at 25-1 and couldn't hit submit. I figured that was the death jinx.

 

[M.W.]

Nobody else can win two straight against Alabama/Clemson/Georgia.

 

[KJ]

Wonder why the average fan doesn't hate this shit any more, we just don't care

Whatever do what you do. System fail

 

[B.A.R.]

Nobody else can win two straight against Alabama/Clemson/Georgia.

I'll take Michigan vs Georgia fwiw.

No homer there. They would match up pretty well with them.


But for purposes of this... it isn't about who is going to win the championship... it is about who will be in the Playoff.

 

[KJ]

Pure numbers OU and Clemson look great

I think Bama and UM would be very, very good

I think Clemson and UM would be not so good

OU would be interesting against either Bams or Clemson

ND will get smoked regardless, so let's hope they show up in there even though I'll be on USC ML this weekend

Third world problems

 

[RetroVK]

Just following your train of thought down a very different path ... does the SEC now have a vested interest in LSU beating TAMU?

The value is unfortunately with Alabama.

But to your thought .... Washington State will be tough to leap the final two weeks if they win out with back to back top 20 wins. So you just need the help in front of them and then not get the ridiculous Ohio state leap frog (which we all know will happen unless they lost to NW).

I am gonna quit looking at this now ... once you look at it deeply, the ridiculousness of the LSU placement makes it obvious they are just going to contort it however they want it, which almost assuredly excludes Washington State. Were it on the up and up, I think it might be worth a tiny investment but it isn't BAR.

 

[RetroVK]

.... I am not sure a Notre Dame loss drops them below Washington State ...

 

[B.A.R.]

.... I am not sure a Notre Dame loss drops them below Washington State ...

Agreed.

I definitely do not think it should.

But, it seems like the narrative is that a Notre Dame loss all but eliminates them (basically saying when your loss happens matters).

 

[B.A.R.]

does the SEC now have a vested interest in LSU beating TAMU

I honestly had not taken that into account with this weeks cap (been planning on playing Tamu in this spot for awhile now -- fwiw).

Interesting though, very interesting.

 

[KJ]

UCF win by 14 should elevate them above any of the current 4 that might lose

Can't believe I'm even thinking about this, looking more forward to the Bluebonnet Bowl than this fabricated tournament of champions

 

[gps_3]

Do y'all really think there's a conspiracy for the SEC? I agree that LSU is not the 7th best team in the country, but I don't think they are being held there to artificially inflate the SEC should Alabama lose between now and bowl season. I can see arguments for putting any of WVU (prior to this week), Wash St, and maybe Ohio St there, but who else? LSU has a pretty solid schedule with one of the 2 best wins of any team in the country. No other 2 loss teams. UCF? Not happening. I have to believe that the committee is doing the best they can. I'm certain each member has their own biases, but I don't think there's some underlying conspiracy to help one conference over another, unless you're talking about keeping the G5 teams out. Whether the SEC is the best right now is definitely debatable, but once you get past the top 6, there's not much to separate the next 15 teams IMO

 

[B.A.R.]

Yeah, but LSU should not be above other P5 teams with one loss.

Lets get rid of one SEC myth for this year -- The West. Well, it really isn't a myth...because it has been dominant side of conference for years. The East actually had more h2h wins so far this season against the West. LSU loss twice, they should not be in the top 10 of anything. You have to win your games on the field. In all honesty, the Georgia win was top-notch but other than that they have not had a signature win...

Miami - NO
Auburn - NO
Messy St - NO

Lost at Florida.

Blown out at home to Bama.

-----------------------------------------------------

We have seen the 'posturing' before. The committee (Frank Beamer) was inflating the ACC the last several weeks as well.

In the past, a few conferences have gotten this advantage.

-------------------------------------------------------

If Bama loses to Georgia and Michigan wins out we have a real problem on our hands. Michigan will have won 12 straight with many of the tough games on the road. They would be the FIRST team to go 9-0 in conference play and win the CCG. Yes, the very first( obviously the SEC plays less conference games). On the other hand, Bama is a great team and would still be the odds on favorite to win a game against any team in the country...

So... identical records...

One team lost Sept 1st
One team lost Dec 1st

One team won their conference
One team did not

One teams SOS is much better than the others

What do YOU do in this situation?

Hence, why the committee needs to prop up the resume for Bama. This is a nightmare scenario for them.

 

[gps_3]

In the situation where ND, Mich and UGA win out, all 3 are in with Clemson. I would argue that Alabama is still one of the 4 best teams in the country, but you can't put them in over the other 3 that did what they did. If UGA lost to GT and then beat Alabama, I think you see Alabama in over UGA.

Depending on who you look at, Michigan's SOS is not much better than Alabama's. 37 vs 48 according to S&P+, or 87.9% vs 88.7%. I don't think there's any question that a 1 loss B1G champ should be in over any 1 loss non-champ. I'm guessing that it will all work itself out just fine with little argument. Either the chalk holds and we have a tidy top 4, or a team or teams take a loss that they can't afford. I just hope it's not us

 

[RetroVK]

Based on past years and what they have done, why would anyone have the belief there is a conspiracy in favor of the SEC?

 

[KJ]

SOS in CFB is likely the biggest farce in all of sport. It's based on preseason perception and goes from there.

 

[B.A.R.]

SOS in CFB is likely the biggest farce in all of sport. It's based on preseason perception and goes from there.

That is why I just look at wins and losses at the end of the year. It is very fluid. If you click on an ESPN lsu schedule right now it shows them playing all these ranked teams that we're obviously ranked way off (just using LSU as an example, not picking on them).

 

[RetroVK]

playoff should be reserved for conference champions only. That is at least a small step in the right direction. It should include all conference champions.

UCF deserves the right to defend their natty in the playoff (if they go undefeated) they were deprived of last year when they went undefeated while beating the team that the mythical championship game winner lost to.

This year they beat a team playing in the ACC championship game.

The injustice of it all gets me worked up sometimes. Equality of opportunity is a major cornerstone to any system being remotely fair.

 

[RetroVK]

We can all agree that if Pitt were to beat Clemson, that UCF has to be ranked higher than Clemson right? No one would rank clemson higher after that, would they?

 

[gps_3]

playoff should be reserved for conference champions only. That is at least a small step in the right direction. It should include all conference champions.

UCF deserves the right to defend their natty in the playoff (if they go undefeated) they were deprived of last year when they went undefeated while beating the team that the mythical championship game winner lost to.

This year they beat a team playing in the ACC championship game.

The injustice of it all gets me worked up sometimes. Equality of opportunity is a major cornerstone to any system being remotely fair.

But all that is a separate argument from what it should be under the current system. I agree with you that having a clear objective to gain entry into the tournament is better. Wins and losses won't matter as much, as long as you win your conference. I wonder what would happen to big OOC matchups in that scenario? There's no real incentive to play those games, but at the same time, there's no penalty for losing

 

[gps_3]

We can all agree that if Pitt were to beat Clemson, that UCF has to be ranked higher than Clemson right? No one would rank clemson higher after that, would they?

I think that only applies to H2H losses. Transitive property is not a favorite of mine

 

[RetroVK]

But all that is a separate argument from what it should be under the current system. I agree with you that having a clear objective to gain entry into the tournament is better. Wins and losses won't matter as much, as long as you win your conference. I wonder what would happen to big OOC matchups in that scenario? There's no real incentive to play those games, but at the same time, there's no penalty for losing

There is a huge money incentive and preparation incentive.

It might actually hurt the smaller conference teams who get less paycheck games because the p5 schools will schedule eachother.

 

[KJ]

Come on admit it like I have for a few years now, you miss the BCS. And really, I just miss having an AP and coaches champion

 

[RetroVK]

I think that only applies to H2H losses. Transitive property is not a favorite of mine

It isn't transitive property.

transitive property is UCF beat Pitt and Pitt beat Clemson, therefore UCF would beat Clemson.

That is different than comparing two resumes.

 

[detroit187]

My top 10 as of today
1. Bama
2. Clemson
3. Notre Dame
4. UGA
5. Michigan
6. Washington St
7. UCF
8. Oklahoma
9, Ohio St
10. LSU

Just going by my eyes to date, but this will change IF M beats Ohio U.

 

[M.W.]

Yeah, but LSU should not be above other P5 teams with one loss.

Lets get rid of one SEC myth for this year -- The West. Well, it really isn't a myth...because it has been dominant side of conference for years. The East actually had more h2h wins so far this season against the West. LSU loss twice, they should not be in the top 10 of anything. You have to win your games on the field. In all honesty, the Georgia win was top-notch but other than that they have not had a signature win...

Miami - NO
Auburn - NO
Messy St - NO

Lost at Florida.

Blown out at home to Bama.

-----------------------------------------------------

We have seen the 'posturing' before. The committee (Frank Beamer) was inflating the ACC the last several weeks as well.

In the past, a few conferences have gotten this advantage.

-------------------------------------------------------

If Bama loses to Georgia and Michigan wins out we have a real problem on our hands. Michigan will have won 12 straight with many of the tough games on the road. They would be the FIRST team to go 9-0 in conference play and win the CCG. Yes, the very first( obviously the SEC plays less conference games). On the other hand, Bama is a great team and would still be the odds on favorite to win a game against any team in the country...

So... identical records...

One team lost Sept 1st
One team lost Dec 1st

One team won their conference
One team did not

One teams SOS is much better than the others

What do YOU do in this situation?

What do I do? I put Clemson 1, Georgia 2, Notre Dame 3, and Michigan 4.

 

[B.A.R.]

So, UCF jumped OSU? Kooky.

 

[pb278817]

Get ucf in!
Let’s say bama takes care of business winning out. They can’t honestly put Georgia or lsu in, correct?
What has wazzu done? Can’t say I’ve watched a game of theirs. But their schedule doesn’t look overly impressive.
If Michigan loses to Ohio..Ohio May need to lose against nw but then..
Just need Oklahoma to lose... and voila ucf is in! .. maybe

 

[booksbestfriend]

Get ucf in!
Let’s say bama takes care of business winning out. They can’t honestly put Georgia or lsu in, correct?
What has wazzu done? Can’t say I’ve watched a game of theirs. But their schedule doesn’t look overly impressive.
If Michigan loses to Ohio..Ohio May need to lose against nw but then..
Just need Oklahoma to lose... and voila ucf is in! .. maybe

You’ll need utter chaos. It has happened in the past. A few years back #2 lost week after wee. I think Bama was the final beneficiary.