• PICK CLUB WEEK #1 LINES ARE POSTED!

CU rant. Look away if you don’t have an open mind about CU. I am brash excited and full of vibes about this game!!!!

spottie2935 said:
What if... I mean what if CU pulls this upset out this week? Turn off all sports networks
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I think it would be awesome for real. Even tho I’m looking for spots to be against them more so than play them im still rooting for them! Plus the more they win now the better it will be when those spots im waiting for get here!!
 
2daBank said:
I think it would be awesome for real. Even tho I’m looking for spots to be against them more so than play them im still rooting for them! Plus the more they win now the better it will be when those spots im waiting for get here!!
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That’s exactly 100% correct. The CU “prices right” “cliff hanger” game awaits. “It’s Coming”
 
So here is a data calculation of how a good offense does when getting 3 scores or more. Now I will also eliminate 30+ lines because those games games are not involving such ranked teams such as Colorado.

In my opinion on why the lines maker has set an absurd line here. It has to do with future lines and getting in your head. They are walking us down a path that looks like success but the fools gold is coming. The trust in a favorite after being so successful when they should be trusted on a big line.

Its exactly like the Colorado State line. The trap isnt played on the field its all about trusting a favorite after ATS wins and confirmations that they should win. Those failures for CU are ahead but not until after CU plays USC.

okay on to the data trend.

line>17 and week<8 and total<73 and points>17

KillerSports.com

killersports.com killersports.com
 
the value of the line compared to the team total (CU's team total should be close to 24)

if CU gets 15+points but fails to reach their 24 point team total with this 17+ point line data search

KillerSports.com

killersports.com killersports.com


so the team total over 24 fails but on the spread i still have close to a 60% success rate of winning. This has close to 1200 results.

As long as CU gets to 15 points I have over a 68% chance of winning and 15 points is way below the team total.
 
finally this is money line data results

with a line >17 and if the dog can score 40+ points but this line is less than 30 ( because so many really bad teams have lines 30+ no need to include those games).

KillerSports.com

killersports.com killersports.com
 
so what I am showing here?

the dog that scores 40+ points in this case has a record of 63-62 straight up. Thats right a 17 + point dog has a winning record.

now if increase the line to >20 its still 33 wins and 42 losses and this line was 7-1 and has dropped a bit.

very profitable high ROI game.
 
T-Squared said:
I came across this: Scouting the Buffaloes: 5 questions with a Colorado beat reporter
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I watch Brian Howell on YouTube everyday or every video he makes. He is good but not great. He makes no mention of the boost CU will get from adding a top running back this week. He made no mention of how Oregons from didn’t deliver well against Texas Techs D.

As far as Travis Jay I expected him to play. Sounds like new info, that’s disappointing. I will be hunting for more videos tonight.

As far as Travis Hunter. It’s a big piece on D. Most of this D success is when the offense gets inside the redzone. The CU D has stepped up. The problem with this is Oregons passing game is usually on another level.

I could also argue (from my findings) that Oregon should have lost against Texas Tech. Much like CU they escaped.

I am just like most here trying to make an educated opinion with so many variables to deal with.

I use a lot of data to find support in my thinking also lines and even past lines. Bad CU teams from the past I don’t think the line has adjust to all the top notch talent improvement CU has made. Why ? Because of CU’s last 2 opponents and what we don’t know about TCU yet. It’s +21 because we still have so many questions yet.

Injured players and lack of running game and poor D between the 20’s.

This all adds up to a lot of people are still scared about backing CU. A lot of people take issue with coach Prime. A lot of Ciach Prime says “I don’t Care” about such and such. Well if watchers do care about what he doesn’t care about that upsets people.

Bottom line though the viewership is up huge and to him, and his kids, and even some of the other players, this is a money tree. And as long as Prime keep winning and shocking the world the Band Wagon Buffs are here to stay.

Let’s also see how Bo Nix does when the other QB and opponents offense apply a pressure on them to keep pace. CU going to score a lot too. Alton MCCaskill will need to be a big piece that no one has seen in. CU uniform. All kinds of talent and won rookie awards when with Houston. He said on his YouTube a month ago he was 95%. Coach has been holding him back. I hope he is the game changer that I have seen from his highlights. And if he is?

I might even win some of my alt lines in this game.

Remember according to the data: if any team scores 18+ the bet has a 70% or more chance of winning.

I’m counting on this to be true
 
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I spent a lot of time on this game. This game matters because I know that CU can score.

I wanted to share because this game fuels my betting excitement. This game fuels me because it’s so rare to see this type of talent transition. I am trying to take advantage of a high line and the unknown.

There will be some to say that is line is setting us up for failure. The books are enticing us too much with so many points! Well there is some Validity to this and I can’t really speak against it to this point. I haven’t seen all of the roster on CU perform and neither have the books and other teams.
 
Later in the season when the books catch up and CU plays a hard nosed tough balanced P12 experienced winning team like Utah, Oregon State Washington state and to a lesser degree UCLA. I am going to leave USC off this list because They play at such a high level. I don’t see A CU success story against USC. The other teams I mention CU doesn’t match up very good to this point.
 
You have presented tons of good arguments for Cu. Certainly enough that should concern ppl laying -21, I was already skeptical of that line so I probably wasn’t hard to convince! Lol. Not sure if Im gonna get all the way to joining you but I know I’m not laying it either.

My favorite podcast gives out one play a week and I usually don’t even follow them despite a excellent history. Sometimes it a play im on which is great, just very tough for me to put down my money unless I cap it and believe. I do believe this the wrong style to crush Cu, not sure I believe Cu going into this Autzen stadium and winning, they are 28-2 at home the last 5 years, a lot of very good teams come here and take a L. Maybe the early start helps? I dunno, I could see even taking alt line down to +10 or so. They closer than that or win and I’ll be kinda surprised. I am seriously hoping you cash every play tho!!
 
spottie2935 said:
Bets and gifts like this don’t happen often enough.
Don’t be scared because it’s Oregon! Remember back about 12-15 years ago when Oregon used to stomp everyone by scoring TDS Every darn week?!!!! This is CU and the train is just starting to roll

I could post you tube videos about Alton MCCaskill (who will be back this week). He is going to balance out the offense. He and S.$anders and company are going to light up Oregon.

Oregon already gave up over 170 rushing yards to Texas Tech. Oregon only -5.5 favorites in that game. Only won by 8. I know this stadium is insane! It won’t matter this week.

CU’s D is bad between the 20’s but they also are very opportunistic!

I know we are all playing real money but I am standing on my soap box in a rare opportunity.

I am going to win and put a dent in the books.

CU +21
CU +13.5 +192
CU +8.5 +273
CU+3.5 +499
CU -1 +917
CU -4 +1516

IBELIEVE
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I’ll be on the Over
 
A bit off topic here but I want to share my thoughts on CFB. We havent see it all yet but parody is starting to show.

A few years back it was Clemson vs Alabama, the Lsu was special, after that it was and has been Georgia. Ohio State as well Michigan finally knocked them off only once, we will see if that continues.

The PAC12 in 2023, for one last season, is standing up huge. The Pac 12 success is balancing out CFB. This will continue for a while when all these team move to other conferences.

A big part of My betting style relies on parody and team movement up and down on the top 25. Who they favorite plays next. Strength of schedule. Past betting lines and adjustments from their performances.

CU is my kinda team. I love their volatility .
 

its TV so they cant do too much speculation but no mention of Alton McCaskill. If he gashes Oregon's D early and often that subdues the heavy pass rush that S.$anders has had to deal with. I predict this to be the case. This will be the first game CU will have a balance.
 
PRO V1 the eye test so far is both teams over right? CU is so Volatile right now. I really cant speak of anything more than the CU data i have on good offenses getting a bunch of points.

CU over is the way to go on team totals. They have to and should get 24 here. I have no idea on Oregon. If CU has the running game I expect that should and could limit Oregon reps.

We will see.
 
2daBank said:
You have presented tons of good arguments for Cu. Certainly enough that should concern ppl laying -21, I was already skeptical of that line so I probably wasn’t hard to convince! Lol. Not sure if Im gonna get all the way to joining you but I know I’m not laying it either.

My favorite podcast gives out one play a week and I usually don’t even follow them despite a excellent history. Sometimes it a play im on which is great, just very tough for me to put down my money unless I cap it and believe. I do believe this the wrong style to crush Cu, not sure I believe Cu going into this Autzen stadium and winning, they are 28-2 at home the last 5 years, a lot of very good teams come here and take a L. Maybe the early start helps? I dunno, I could see even taking alt line down to +10 or so. They closer than that or win and I’ll be kinda surprised. I am seriously hoping you cash every play tho!!
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If I was 100% certain I wouldn't have messed with all those Alt lines. I would have just taken ML -1 and -4 for the jackpot.

I am totally into this game, and loaded on the +21 and it will be fun to see if any, some or all the alt lines cash. This is and will be my second biggest bet of the season I cased 12 units on CU over TCU. I was more certain on that one. TCU does have the history Oregon does and I figured CU to open up making a huge BOOM! They did. Here I expect a nip and tuck game and some sort of competitive wild finish and very exciting and close game.


34-30 somebody.
 
spottie2935 said:
If I was 100% certain I wouldn't have messed with all those Alt lines. I would have just taken ML -1 and -4 for the jackpot.

I am totally into this game, and loaded on the +21 and it will be fun to see if any, some or all the alt lines cash. This is and will be my second biggest bet of the season I cased 12 units on CU over TCU. I was more certain on that one. TCU does have the history Oregon does and I figured CU to open up making a huge BOOM! They did. Here I expect a nip and tuck game and some sort of competitive wild finish and very exciting and close game.


34-30 somebody.
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when betting we all need to see something that validates and motivates investing.

This site is different. There are not a lot of rookies posting crazy nonsense here. This site has a ton of educated, experienced and talented bettors.

I know this and I consider myself among you all. I have a different approach but I make it happen.

Best wishes to all and thanks for the respect and consideration.

Peace out!

I will keep an eye of the thread.
 
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