VIA INSIDER
This week's "Monday Night Football" matchup has two surprising 3-0 teams facing off against each other as the
Miami Dolphins (3-0 ATS) visit the
New Orleans Saints (2-1 ATS). Second-year quarterback
Ryan Tannehill seems to have taken the next step in his development for Miami, playing efficient football and leading his team to two fourth-quarter comeback victories. But one big problem for Miami is its offensive line.
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The Dolphins knew the O-line could be a problem after they let
Jake Long sign in the offseason with St. Louis, but they probably hoped it would perform better than this. According to Football Outsiders, Miami's line is
dead last in the NFL with an adjusted sack rate of 11.8 percent (one of only seven teams above 9.0 percent). Tannehill has fumbled
five times already this season, losing four, and he has the worst
expected points added from sacks in the NFL with minus-10.9.
For the Saints, the big story is the defense. Everyone thought that
Drew Brees and this offense would be back to its high-powered self -- and it has been, with Brees ranked No. 5 in Total QBR at 73.2 entering Week 4 -- but not many people probably expected the defense to play this well, especially with all the injuries. The Saints are giving up under 13 points per game and only allowing opponents 184.3 yards through the air (fourth-best in the NFL entering Week 4); last season they were dead last with 292.6 yards allowed a contest.
This line opened at Saints minus-5.5 and a total of 47.5 at the Las Vegas Hotel and has climbed throughout the week to Saints minus-7, with both the sharps and public liking the Saints. According to ESPN Insider's PickCenter, 73 percent of the public bets are on the Saints. And remember, the Saints are 16-4 ATS at home the last two-plus seasons, including 2-0 SU and ATS in 2013.
Let's turn to analysis on the line and total from Jay Kornegay of the LVH and ATS picks from four handicappers.
<CENTER>[h=3]Matchup: Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints[/h]
Spread: Opened Saints minus-5.5; now Saints minus-7
Total: Opened 47.5; now 48.5
</CENTER>
Jay Kornegay says: "The Saints opened up at minus-5.5 and a total of 47.5. Miami comes in undefeated and we do believe they are a much improved team. The opening number of minus-5.5 might have been a touch low as the money has shown up on New Orleans throughout the whole week and we expect more Monday. The bookmakers underrated the lack of respect Miami still has out there. Moving forward, when will Dolphin money show up? I don't think we see it unless we go to minus-7.5. The books got hurt last Monday as the Broncos/Raiders game ran from minus-14.5 to minus-17 before settling in at minus-16.5. The game finished with a 16-point Broncos win and most books got middled. The books will wait as long as they can on minus-7.
"I think the number will stay at minus-7 as the books will not want to go on the high side of this number. The total moved to 48.5 in the middle of the week and has held steady. I think it will continue to hover around 48 and it has a small chance to drop down to the original opening number of 47.5."
Prediction: Line will likely stay at minus-7; total could dip to 47.5.
[h=3]ATS picks[/h]
Dave Tuley says: "I think I learned my lesson last week with the Cardinals: Don't fade the Saints at home unless you have a team that can really keep up offensively (like the Falcons, who should have covered at New Orleans in Week 1). Otherwise I think I'll have to sit this one out, though I believe the Dolphins are the right side."
ATS pick: Pass
Sports Boss says: "I hate taking three favorites in the prime-time games in one week, but I will this week and I like the Saints to take care of the Dolphins on MNF. Give credit to Miami for their 3-0 start, but when we examine their statistics a little closer, especially versus the Saints, there could be problems for Miami in the Superdome on Monday. All of my models favor the Saints in this game, but what's more is the Saints defense ranks third versus the pass, third in my miscellaneous category (any stat that cannot be attributed directly to rushing or passing such as first downs or time of possession) and sixth overall. On the flip side is a Miami offense that doesn't rate in the top half of the NFL in rushing, passing or miscellaneous. Add in the fact Miami is playing in the ultra-loud Superdome, they currently allow the most sacks per pass attempt in the NFL and it is Tannehill versus Brees, and I am taking the Saints to win this game by at least a TD."
ATS pick: Saints
Sal Selvaggio says: "I bet New Orleans minus-6 earlier this week and that is the side I would recommend at less than 7. Last week was another game in the books for Miami and another game were they were outgained -- Miami is 3-0 on the season yet they haven't outgained an opponent.
"The Saints haven't exactly impressed me either as the offense hasn't been as explosive or efficient as in years past. The defense is much improved and if the offense can get anywhere close to where it has been, this team is a Super Bowl contender. This feels like a good matchup for Miami if the Dolphins play it smart, run the ball and control the clock, but if they get down early (like I believe they will) it will play right into the Saints' hands and I expect them to win by enough to cover.
ATS pick: Saints
Wunderdog says: "It might be tempting to back this upstart Miami team that is 3-0, getting nearly a TD here. But this team isn't without issues. For one, the Dolphins haven't protected their quarterback very well, as Tannehill has been sacked an NFL-high 14 times through three games. One reason for that is that the Dolphins simply do not have a running game, generating just 3.2 yards per carry. That has left them in bad spots in terms of down and distance, and opponents are pinning their ears back and going after the quarterback. New Orleans was a horrific defense last season but the Saints have made great strides this season. The Saints' offense finally got on track last week, putting up 31 points against Arizona. After that win, New Orleans is 18-5 ATS in its last 23 games in this building. Over the past three seasons, the Saints are 11-2 ATS against teams like Miami that allow 235-plus passing yards per game. They are also 19-9 ATS over that span as a favorite, including 14-3 ATS as home chalk. Lay the points with New Orleans here."
ATS pick: Saints
rayer
