Conference Championship Week - Discussion

Frank Costanza

Frank Costanza

Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Love the MAC over and Oklahoma State. Easy to say the latter may have issues bouncing back from Bedlam. I look at it as more of a momentum thing for them. My biggest issue with that team is Sanders but he'll be confident coming off of OU. 27-16 Pokes.
 
Iowa catching 10 after not expecting to be in the game and Michigan with the Mouse off their backs, lower scoring sluggish game should be in store
 
Dec 3 Fri 2021

06:00 PM
303Western Kentuckypk
-112		O 72
-115
304UTSA
pk
-108		U 72
-105
07:00 PM
305Oregon+3
-105		+132O 59½
-110
306Utah
-3
-115		-152U 59½
-110
Dec 4 Sat 2021

11:00 AM
307Baylor+5½
-110		+185O 47
-105
308Oklahoma State
-5½
-110		-215U 47
-115
11:00 AM
309Kent State-3
-113		-155O 72
-110
310Northern Illinois
+3
-107		+135U 72
-110
02:00 PM
323Utah State+5
-105		+175O 50½
-110
324San Diego State
-5
-115		-205U 50½
-110
02:30 PM
311Appalachian State-2½
-115		-135O 52½
-110
312UL Lafayette
+2½
-105		+115U 52½
-110
03:00 PM
313Houston+10
-115		+320O 54
-110
314Cincinnati
-10
-105		-400U 54
-110
03:00 PM
315Prairie View+7
-105		+230O 43
-110
316Jackson St
-7
-115		-275U 43
-110
03:00 PM
317Georgia-6½
-115		-245O 50½
-110
318Alabama
+6½
-105		+205U 50½
-110
07:00 PM
319Wake Forest+3
-110		+125O 72
-110
320Pittsburgh
-3
-110		-145U 72
-110
07:00 PM
321Iowa+10½
-105		+345O 44
-105
322Michigan
-10½
-115		-425U 44
-115
 
KJ said:
Iowa catching 10 after not expecting to be in the game and Michigan with the Great guy off their backs, lower scoring sluggish game should be in store
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Yeah I hate to say "let-down" in such a big game, but emotionally and mentally it seems like a terrible spot for Michigan, being asked to follow up the huge and dominating win over the arch-rival. No way in hell I could lay the 10
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Yeah I hate to say "let-down" in such a big game, but emotionally and mentally it seems like a terrible spot for Michigan, being asked to follow up the huge and dominating win over the arch-rival. No way in hell I could lay the 10
Click to expand...
Its such a big win for those kids that it'll be Friday before their feet hit the floor.
 
I have to comment on the Western Kentucky - UTSA line. Game at UTSA. WKU -1 / -1.5 now.

WKU was -3 at home vs UTSA on 10/9 and UTSA beat them 52-46.

So what has changed? It does seem like UTSA peaked in October. Then the Southern Miss game, then the UAB game where they pulled an absolute rabbit out of their hat and then the North Texas game. Bad trend. Can they rekindle their best?

WKU has chugged along, has the D really improved...or did they just benefit from some poor CUSA opponents down the stretch?
 
Oklahoma State beat Baylor 10/2 in Stillwater 24-14 laying 4 (scored TD to cover with 2min left in game while running out clock near goal line. Ok State had a 401-280 TY edge, but yards per play was actually 4.91-4.89 in Baylor's favor (26 fewer plays...and 14 fewer first downs). Ok St was -3 TOs.
 
Kent led NIU 11/3 at home 31-21 HT. The 10 point margin is attributed to NIU fumbling at the K15 and NIU missed FG. NIU had 351 1st H yards to Kent's 336. Kent started slow. Kent went up 38-21 and when NIU responded they went for 2, failed. NIU would go for 2 twice in the 2nd H and failed on both and lost the game by 5. Kent had TY edge 682-663, but ypp was 9.1-6.9. NIU was 10-of-20 3rd down and 4-for-4 4th downs. Kent was only 36% 3rd down and 1-for-1 4th.
 
App State as a 5 pt road fav played their worst game of the year by far at ULL 10/12 losing 13-41. ULL outgained them 455-211 6.6-3.8). App State O avg in their other 11 games this season is 460ypg and their D allowed only 302ypg in the other 11 games. 3 of ULL's TDs were on short fields as App State lost 4 turnovers, ULL lost 1 (an INT thrown in the EZ).
 
s--k said:
I have to comment on the Western Kentucky - UTSA line. Game at UTSA. WKU -1 / -1.5 now.

WKU was -3 at home vs UTSA on 10/9 and UTSA beat them 52-46.

So what has changed? It does seem like UTSA peaked in October. Then the Southern Miss game, then the UAB game where they pulled an absolute rabbit out of their hat and then the North Texas game. Bad trend. Can they rekindle their best?

WKU has chugged along, has the D really improved...or did they just benefit from some poor CUSA opponents down the stretch?
Click to expand...
I'm a look forward, not back for the schools that aren't national powerhouses

UTSA winning the conference then getting a chance against BYU who is P5(a) has to be incredible for them
 
KJ said:
I'm a look forward, not back for the schools that aren't national powerhouses

UTSA winning the conference then getting a chance against BYU who is P5(a) has to be incredible for them
Click to expand...

In that vein, winning the conference for WKU would be incredible for them, right? It's hard to think the game somehow means more to one of these schools than the other. Sure it would be really special to cap a really special season for UTSA, but I don't think for the WKU players winning this is all that less special to what it means for them. Both teams are going to want it. UTSA being at home, and being an underdog, if they use that as disrespect are about the only motivational edges I could agree with. UTSA just played BYU last year, I don't know that a matchup vs them is what is going to get them going for this game.

Not that I want to back the WKU run D. I tend to think it actually isn't all that much better and that the weak offenses they have faced have made it look better than it is.

I'd probably be more inclined to take UTSA as the better all around team, just concerned they haven't been playing their best ball the last few weeks. The WKU O does what it does pretty much vs anybody, UTSA in game 1 included.

Not a necessarily easy game for me atleast to have a strong feeling one way or the other. Lean UTSA.
 
i'm inclined to think most of these beatdowns that are now sitting at -3 or so ; the winning team wins again.

Utah and Louisiana pretty much beat up their opponents. Couldn't imagine taking the other side.

Kent state - curius what the maction guys think. I faded these guys last week against miami because for much of the year kent state's oline has had bad protection and it looks like a trainreck for the qb stepping back into a sack. But I'm believing they shuffled some guys around ? miami oh is rated high in sacks and couldn't sniff the backfield. Miami oh has a well rounded team good defense and kent looked better. ....Kents run game defense is night and day from early in mac like against buffalo. NIU and miami had trouble running the ball. Pass defense is another story, but in this game you basically are going to get a very strong rush advantage for kent vs a pass advantage for kent....game was on verge of blowout for awhile. I like the team that can run and stop the run. Plus I get Sean Lewis vs Hammock. Seems like a mismatch. Feel Kent has begun to peak.
 
s--k said:
Oklahoma State beat Baylor 10/2 in Stillwater 24-14 laying 4 (scored TD to cover with 2min left in game while running out clock near goal line. Ok State had a 401-280 TY edge, but yards per play was actually 4.91-4.89 in Baylor's favor (26 fewer plays...and 14 fewer first downs). Ok St was -3 TOs.
Click to expand...
I watched this entire game. Baylor could do absolutely nothing. Need the status on Bohanon for Baylor...if he's out I don't see the backup doing much against the Pokes D.
 
After years of being little brother I think UGA puts Bama to the sword. Tide will be a lot of people's sharp underdog as Saban will have them motivated I just don't think they are that good tbh.
 
EL CAPO said:
i'm inclined to think most of these beatdowns that are now sitting at -3 or so ; the winning team wins again.

Utah and Louisiana pretty much beat up their opponents. Couldn't imagine taking the other side.

Kent state - curius what the maction guys think. I faded these guys last week against miami because for much of the year kent state's oline has had bad protection and it looks like a trainreck for the qb stepping back into a sack. But I'm believing they shuffled some guys around ? miami oh is rated high in sacks and couldn't sniff the backfield. Miami oh has a well rounded team good defense and kent looked better. ....Kents run game defense is night and day from early in mac like against buffalo. NIU and miami had trouble running the ball. Pass defense is another story, but in this game you basically are going to get a very strong rush advantage for kent vs a pass advantage for kent....game was on verge of blowout for awhile. I like the team that can run and stop the run. Plus I get Sean Lewis vs Hammock. Seems like a mismatch. Feel Kent has begun to peak.
Click to expand...

I think both defenses remain bad. As for any Kent run D improvement, I don't buy it. Miami, Oh is not a good running team (ran for 3.5ypc or less on three other MAC teams then had their 3rd best ypc on Kent last week 4.65) and Akron can't run consistently either (four of their other MAC games rushed for under 3.0 ypc).

For me, I would not expect the Kent D to be responsible for a win here short of gaining turnovers (which they do) or some RZ D getting stops.

I would expect both offenses to have plenty of success moving the ball.

One thing that doesn't get mentioned or noticed much, but Kent has a big downgrade a kicker this year after Trickett transfered to Minnesota. It doesn't just show up on the % of FGs made, but also the depth and range of the kickoffs (very few touchbacks compared to Trickett).

I think Kent O can be relied upon more, am not going to consider trusting either defense to do much good. I'd pick Kent to win the game, but for me, the price matters, I wouldn't want to have to have them win by more than 3.
 
s--k said:
I think both defenses remain bad. As for any Kent run D improvement, I don't buy it. Miami, Oh is not a good running team (ran for 3.5ypc or less on three other MAC teams then had their 3rd best ypc on Kent last week 4.65) and Akron can't run consistently either (four of their other MAC games rushed for under 3.0 ypc).

For me, I would not expect the Kent D to be responsible for a win here short of gaining turnovers (which they do) or some RZ D getting stops.

I would expect both offenses to have plenty of success moving the ball.

One thing that doesn't get mentioned or noticed much, but Kent has a big downgrade a kicker this year after Trickett transfered to Minnesota. It doesn't just show up on the % of FGs made, but also the depth and range of the kickoffs (very few touchbacks compared to Trickett).

I think Kent O can be relied upon more, am not going to consider trusting either defense to do much good. I'd pick Kent to win the game, but for me, the price matters, I wouldn't want to have to have them win by more than 3.
Click to expand...

kicker is an understated point, think it could matter

Agree with most of your points; but don't know how you don't mention kent held NIU to 3.4 yards per attempt on 39 attempts rushing; their season low on the year

Kent D giving it up in the pass as a tradeoff perhaps; but to start the MAC Buffalo and Western michigan was driving mac trucks through that d line. Miami Oh like real close statistically on year to those teams so some improvement I think for kent down the stretch of the season. Really turned ohio game I think

Kents got a fast D actually. That said they still giving up tons of points. I think not giving up busted pass coverages going to be key. Agree still think high scoring game capable of a close game - but 2 things I still think have improved for kent is qb pressures on for krum being limited and a better run d.

Last NIU - Kent game. Rush yards
Kent 358
NIU 131

Kent had control of game by multiple tds , when the game got close and NIU needed a stop, Kent just ran the clock methodically till the time expired. That to me demonstrated a level of dominance.
 
@EL CAPO I do believe Kent aimed to stop NIU's run and forced them to pass as a game plan. So they achieved what they wanted vs the run and maybe didn't expect NIU to be as good passing as they were.

A NIU 1st H turnover a missed FG to end the half and Kent scoring first out of HT did create a three score lead at one point. And something similar could happen again if NIU can't cash all their drives.

Bottom line I think Kent's O is better and more reliable. I don't think WM D is all that good and CM D is good - Kent struggled. I also rate Miami D pretty good and Kent was ok. But all those Ds are far superior to NIU.

I can't fathom NIU slowing Kent.
 
Pitt, Georgia and Michigan tt’s all look good to me. I think I’ve been on the wrong side of every cincy game this year...like Houston +10.5 here
 
Do any MAC teams play on turf?

Guess I've always thought indoors, turf, zero elements make for some high octane MACtion especially with these two
 
KJ said:
Do any MAC teams play on turf?

Guess I've always thought indoors, turf, zero elements make for some high octane MACtion especially with these two
Click to expand...
Without looking, think all the MAC stadiums are turf now
 
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EL CAPO said:
i'm inclined to think most of these beatdowns that are now sitting at -3 or so ; the winning team wins again.

Utah and Louisiana pretty much beat up their opponents. Couldn't imagine taking the other side.

Kent state - curius what the maction guys think. I faded these guys last week against miami because for much of the year kent state's oline has had bad protection and it looks like a trainreck for the qb stepping back into a sack. But I'm believing they shuffled some guys around ? miami oh is rated high in sacks and couldn't sniff the backfield. Miami oh has a well rounded team good defense and kent looked better. ....Kents run game defense is night and day from early in mac like against buffalo. NIU and miami had trouble running the ball. Pass defense is another story, but in this game you basically are going to get a very strong rush advantage for kent vs a pass advantage for kent....game was on verge of blowout for awhile. I like the team that can run and stop the run. Plus I get Sean Lewis vs Hammock. Seems like a mismatch. Feel Kent has begun to peak.
Click to expand...
I no longer have access to a database, so I can’t run my own searches anymore, but Marc Lawrence says the loser of the first game is 46-48 straight up and 48-46 ATS in the re-match in the conference championship game.
 
So I got drunk Sunday night for no reason other than that I was back from the inlaws’ compound. I was appalled to see what I had said in one political discussion and then remembered I had also made some wagers. Uh oh.

I can’t say I disagree with any of them except that some of them might be unduly large.

Biggest plays were Georgia, Pitt, and Pitt/Wake over. Also played OSU and UTSA and UGA/Ala under.

Other games I like are Iowa, ULL, and Utah St. In fact, I like Iowa a lot. Gotta throw the dogs a bone once in a while.
 
From a Ute board I frequent, not my comment.

"The Deseret News did an interesting article. As much as we say that it's hard to beat the same team twice in a season, the Pac 12 title game over the past 11 years has been a rematch 7 times. The winner of the regular season game also won the rematch 6 of those 7 times. Over the entire NCAA since 1992, the regular season winner has won over 60% of the CCG rematches."
 
s--k said:
In that vein, winning the conference for WKU would be incredible for them, right? It's hard to think the game somehow means more to one of these schools than the other. Sure it would be really special to cap a really special season for UTSA, but I don't think for the WKU players winning this is all that less special to what it means for them. Both teams are going to want it. UTSA being at home, and being an underdog, if they use that as disrespect are about the only motivational edges I could agree with. UTSA just played BYU last year, I don't know that a matchup vs them is what is going to get them going for this game.

Not that I want to back the WKU run D. I tend to think it actually isn't all that much better and that the weak offenses they have faced have made it look better than it is.

I'd probably be more inclined to take UTSA as the better all around team, just concerned they haven't been playing their best ball the last few weeks. The WKU O does what it does pretty much vs anybody, UTSA in game 1 included.

Not a necessarily easy game for me atleast to have a strong feeling one way or the other. Lean UTSA.
Click to expand...
WKU up to -3 now. Kinda seems like a bubble bursting situation, where utsa fails to get up after having their perfect season crushed last week. Think it’s over or pass for me…
 
mcculran said:
WKU up to -3 now. Kinda seems like a bubble bursting situation, where utsa fails to get up after having their perfect season crushed last week. Think it’s over or pass for me…
Click to expand...

WKU definitely has firepower and are playing well.

I can't believe UTSA will fail to be up after losing their first game in this situation. This is their most important game of the year! Win this and they are conference champions, first time ever conference champions! Might be able to apply that philosophy in a regular season game vs the likes of Rice or FAU or something. But this game is for all the marbles, hosting the league title game. I would expect them to be very very up. As I expect WKU. I would think those kind of situational angles are off the table. If we think Oklahoma State could be flat or Michigan could be flat after some very historic and important rivalry wins. But for UTSA, losing to North Texas means nothing, winning this game means everything. 12-0 wouldn't have been any kind of realistic goal before the season started. Winning the conference championship would've been.

My only concern for UTSA really lies with the fact they appear to be past their in-season peak, and some warning signs were popping up for the last 3 games. So where as WKU comes in rolling, UTSA has to kind of rediscover something they lost. The want-to, the interest level I must believe is going to be there. It's the execution and ability that I'm now questioning after what I've seen out of them the last 3 weeks.
 
EL CAPO said:
i'm inclined to think most of these beatdowns that are now sitting at -3 or so ; the winning team wins again.

Utah and Louisiana pretty much beat up their opponents. Couldn't imagine taking the other side.

Kent state - curius what the maction guys think. I faded these guys last week against miami because for much of the year kent state's oline has had bad protection and it looks like a trainreck for the qb stepping back into a sack. But I'm believing they shuffled some guys around ? miami oh is rated high in sacks and couldn't sniff the backfield. Miami oh has a well rounded team good defense and kent looked better. ....Kents run game defense is night and day from early in mac like against buffalo. NIU and miami had trouble running the ball. Pass defense is another story, but in this game you basically are going to get a very strong rush advantage for kent vs a pass advantage for kent....game was on verge of blowout for awhile. I like the team that can run and stop the run. Plus I get Sean Lewis vs Hammock. Seems like a mismatch. Feel Kent has begun to peak.
Click to expand...
Is napier coaching the season out? Or he gone?
 
Looking at Houston....they've been impressive of late but they've beaten no one. Cincy's strength is pass D and that is what Houston wants to D. I see Tune throwing a couple to the Bearcats.

What has changed for Cincy the past 2 weeks when they've looked like Top 5 Cincy? Good competition? Maybe a lull for them after beating Irish and UCF....they looked like garbage beating Navy, Tulane and Tulsa, then put it back together the past 2 weeks against SMU and ECU.
 
Yeah, I think Houston O isn't as good as the perception might be of their unit. Tune's not great and their OL is bad run and pass blocking vs decent teams. UH D is their better unit for sure, if they have a shot it is going to be getting good D performance vs Cincy.
 
s--k said:
Yeah, I think Houston O isn't as good as the perception might be of their unit. Tune's not great and their OL is bad run and pass blocking vs decent teams. UH D is their better unit for sure, if they have a shot it is going to be getting good D performance vs Cincy.
Click to expand...
Yeah I’ve started to sour a bit on Houston spread for those reasons.
 
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