College Kids 2025

R

RBD

Pretty much a regular
Record: 0-0

Washington vs Washington State

At the start of each season I review the records for the different handicapping methods I used from the previous season, to see what worked and what didn't work.
But I always remind myself – "What worked one season may not work the next.”

Here’s an example.

Last year, I had a college football situational play based on a point spread differential between my number and the books.
For the first 5 weeks it was 8-19, a 70% Fade.(*)
This year that same play is 13-6, a 68% play ON.
That’s a complete reversal!

The play went 8-5 in week 1.
It went 4-1 in week 2.
It was 1-0 last week.
Now we’re in week four. The problem is, do I jump on it and hope it continues, or stay off because of reversion toward the mean?

I usually avoid jumping on trends, preferring trying to anticipate them and getting on early.
But last year’s numbers continued to be profitable for five weeks as a Fade, so I’m going to play a couple of these spots in week four and five this year and hope the trend holds.

While reviewing my database looking for a higher W percentage within this play I noticed that when I up the qualifying point spread differential by 33% the record is 7-2, 77%.
And I have one game that fits this week, Washington at Washington State.

The books opened the Huskies as 19 point Rd Favs and they’ve gone up to 20.
That’s a lot of points for a rivalry game, and this one, the Apple Cup, dates all the way back to the year 1900!
But let’s not go back that far; let’s look at some recent history.

The numbers start out ugly.
Washington is 8-2 SU in the last 10.

Okay, but maybe the Cougars have covered the spread in some of those 10 games?
Let’s look.
Nope. The Huskies are 7-3 ATS.

But how many of those seven Huskie wins have been by more than this week’s spread of 20' points?
In the last 10 games, Washington State would have covered a 20-point spread in six of 10 games, good for 60%.
Okay, I feel a little better about my play now.

And Washington State has also covered three straight, and four of the last five, so while they’re still losing SU we are seeing more competitive Cougars as of late.

And this seems like a good spot for my Washington story.
I was spending a month in Bellingham, up near the border between the US and Canada.
Nice town, good people.
I found a secluded lake at the base of a mountain that had a jogging trail around it that I would visit each day for my morning run.
I noticed that all the other people jogging or walking the trails carried huge walking sticks, like Moses’s staff.
So I asked an old guy, “I noticed everyone carries big sticks with them. Are there any critters around here I need to be aware of?”

And he said, “Do you know the nickname of our team, Washington State?”
I said, “Sure, I’m a football fan, they’re the Cougars.”
And he said, “Well, there’s a reason for that, son,” and he smiled and walked away.

Apparently, according to one of the other people I talked to, the big cats come down from the mountain to drink at the lake. But only at night, he said, so mornings are safe.

I picked out a different jogging spot anyway, just in case there was a cougar that couldn’t tell time and didn’t know morning from night.
As a general rule in life, I try to avoid places where there are things that want to eat me.

But I digress.

When to Buy Recommendation
Since the line is moving in my favor, I’m going to wait to buy this one and hope I can get to + three TD’s because I’m going to need every one of them, Washington State is just not a very good team.

In week one, they managed a weak win over FCS Idaho, 13-10.
And it took a last-second field goal to get that victory.
FBS teams schedule FCS opponents in week one for the distinct purpose of setting up a blowout win to get the season started with some confidence.
13-10 does not instill any confidence.

In week two, Washington State showed improvement, beating San Diego State 36-13.

In week three, they reverted back to form, getting their butts kicked by 39 points in a 49-10 loss to North Texas.
Suddenly, +20 doesn’t look so good anymore.

And now the Washington Huskies come to town.

The 2-0 undefeated Washington Huskies.

The “Fresh off a 60 point crushing win over UC Davis” Huskies (THAT’S how you’re supposed to treat an FCS team!)

The “well-rested off-a-bye-week, giving them an extra week to prepare” Washington Huskies.

Not one of my favorite bets I’ll make this season, but I’ll ride with my handicapping models and hope that the Huskies get caught in a bit of a look-ahead spot.
You can’t blame them if they do, with #1 Ohio State up next on their schedule.

I'll try to stop by with the final number I buy and maybe another play or two.

Good luck this weekend...

(*) Edited; correction on the percentage.
 
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Thanks B.A.R and aphid.
Not a play that I like very much, but my stats say take the points.
It's up to +21 right now, can't hurt to wait a little longer to buy it, see if it continues to climb.
Good luck with your play tomorrow.
 
RBD said:
Record: 0-0

Washington vs Washington State

At the start of each season I review the records for the different handicapping methods I used from the previous season, to see what worked and what didn't work.
But I always remind myself – "What worked one season may not work the next.”

Here’s an example.

Last year, I had a college football situational play based on a point spread differential between my number and the books.
For the first 5 weeks it was 8-19, a 70% Fade.(*)
This year that same play is 13-6, a 68% play ON.
That’s a complete reversal!

The play went 8-5 in week 1.
It went 4-1 in week 2.
It was 1-0 last week.
Now we’re in week four. The problem is, do I jump on it and hope it continues, or stay off because of reversion toward the mean?

I usually avoid jumping on trends, preferring trying to anticipate them and getting on early.
But last year’s numbers continued to be profitable for five weeks as a Fade, so I’m going to play a couple of these spots in week four and five this year and hope the trend holds.

While reviewing my database looking for a higher W percentage within this play I noticed that when I up the qualifying point spread differential by 33% the record is 7-2, 77%.
And I have one game that fits this week, Washington at Washington State.

The books opened the Huskies as 19 point Rd Favs and they’ve gone up to 20.
That’s a lot of points for a rivalry game, and this one, the Apple Cup, dates all the way back to the year 1900!
But let’s not go back that far; let’s look at some recent history.

The numbers start out ugly.
Washington is 8-2 SU in the last 10.

Okay, but maybe the Cougars have covered the spread in some of those 10 games?
Let’s look.
Nope. The Huskies are 7-3 ATS.

But how many of those seven Huskie wins have been by more than this week’s spread of 20' points?
In the last 10 games, Washington State would have covered a 20-point spread in six of 10 games, good for 60%.
Okay, I feel a little better about my play now.

And Washington State has also covered three straight, and four of the last five, so while they’re still losing SU we are seeing more competitive Cougars as of late.

And this seems like a good spot for my Washington story.
I was spending a month in Bellingham, up near the border between the US and Canada.
Nice town, good people.
I found a secluded lake at the base of a mountain that had a jogging trail around it that I would visit each day for my morning run.
I noticed that all the other people jogging or walking the trails carried huge walking sticks, like Moses’s staff.
So I asked an old guy, “I noticed everyone carries big sticks with them. Are there any critters around here I need to be aware of?”

And he said, “Do you know the nickname of our team, Washington State?”
I said, “Sure, I’m a football fan, they’re the Cougars.”
And he said, “Well, there’s a reason for that, son,” and he smiled and walked away.

Apparently, according to one of the other people I talked to, the big cats come down from the mountain to drink at the lake. But only at night, he said, so mornings are safe.

I picked out a different jogging spot anyway, just in case there was a cougar that couldn’t tell time and didn’t know morning from night.
As a general rule in life, I try to avoid places where there are things that want to eat me.

But I digress.

When to Buy Recommendation
Since the line is moving in my favor, I’m going to wait to buy this one and hope I can get to + three TD’s because I’m going to need every one of them, Washington State is just not a very good team.

In week one, they managed a weak win over FCS Idaho, 13-10.
And it took a last-second field goal to get that victory.
FBS teams schedule FCS opponents in week one for the distinct purpose of setting up a blowout win to get the season started with some confidence.
13-10 does not instill any confidence.

In week two, Washington State showed improvement, beating San Diego State 36-13.

In week three, they reverted back to form, getting their butts kicked by 39 points in a 49-10 loss to North Texas.
Suddenly, +20 doesn’t look so good anymore.

And now the Washington Huskies come to town.

The 2-0 undefeated Washington Huskies.

The “Fresh off a 60 point crushing win over UC Davis” Huskies (THAT’S how you’re supposed to treat an FCS team!)

The “well-rested off-a-bye-week, giving them an extra week to prepare” Washington Huskies.

Not one of my favorite bets I’ll make this season, but I’ll ride with my handicapping models and hope that the Huskies get caught in a bit of a look-ahead spot.
You can’t blame them if they do, with #1 Ohio State up next on their schedule.

I'll try to stop by with the final number I buy and maybe another play or two.

Good luck this weekend...

(*) Edited; correction on the percentage.
Click to expand...

This is impressive. Best of luck sir.
 
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Recap 0-1
Record 0-1
Review: Lost with Washington State. Didn't much like the bet but I stuck with what my numbers told me to do and despite losing this one that won't change - I trust my numbers.

The Cougars, +21, were right where I needed to be going into the 4th quarter, only down 7.

The Huskies would have to score more than two unanswered TD’s to beat me and they hadn’t done that in any of the previous quarters.
Wash won Q1 by a score of 14-0, tied Q2 at 10-10 and lost the third quarter 7-14. So I really liked my position heading into Q4.
But then came a pick six.
Then another turnover.
And the Cougars lost by 28.

On to today's card.
But first:
I was channel flipping between TCU/Arizona State and Minnesota Lynx at Phoenix Mercury last night.
A commercial came on for generic Viagra.
I figured it was during the TCU game.
The commercial ended and it went back to the game - Minnesota at Phoenix.
Which begs the question - WHY?

Generic viagra.
A WNBA game.
Talk about not knowing your target audience...
But I digress.

I don't like Notre Dame.
Don't know why, no good reason really.
Nothing against the school, nothing against their religion, never took a bad beat because of them. Just don't like watching them, don't like betting on them and rarely do.
But one of my handicapping models says Arkansas should be the Favorite in this game.
And that model's record going into today is 6-13.
Which tells me take the team that the settlers at Rockridge said they don't want - the Irish.
(Someone will get that reference.)

Starting my day with Notre Dame and hoping they don't give me more reasons to not like them when the final second ticks off the clock.

ND - (wait)
I'm going to wait to buy this one.
It opened at -6, the WAN right now is -4' with a couple houses at -4.
I doubt it will drop to -3' but I have two hours until kickoff so I'll wait till -4 becomes the common number that most people can get. Worst case I get four and the hook. I'll try to drop back in with the final number I buy.
GOOD LUCK with your plays today.
 
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Recap: 1-0
Record: 1-1
Review: Last time in I had Notre Dame -4 vs Arkansas.
The Irish won by 43 points.

NEXT!

Been away, traveling, busy, catching yellowfin, relocating (back in Vegas for a while), fine dining, playing poker, just having fun.
I bought a play for tonight so I thought I'd drop by with it.

I use a couple different handicapping models that I run all the games through each week.

(I use "models" or "methods" or "situational spots" because I don't like the word "systems."
I ran a book on the strip, and I had a saying:
"Blessed are the system guys, for they have found a way to beat us."
It was, of course, sarcasm.

Every year new faces would show up, come to town to make a living at sports betting (another way of saying they didn't want to work a real job and thought they found an easy way out) because they thought they had a system to beat the house.

They'd start out betting house limits.
Then their unit size would begin to drop.
Then it would drop some more.
Next up - parlays.
Finally, teasers.
Then one day they'd just disappear.
Some went home.
Some became part of one of Vegas's dirty little secrets - jumpers.

So, "systems" has bad connotations for me.
(Plus it sounds too much like scumbag tout talk.)

Anyway ...
Two of my methods involve trying to find where the books made the wrong team the Favorite (WF.)
One of them is hitting at 53% so it has no value as a play ON or a Fade.

But . . .

New Mexico State is showing up as the team that should be the Fav in tonight's game and this is the fourth time this season they've been in this WF spot.

Their record in this play is 1-2.

Yes, it's only a small, three game data sample, but I like Missouri State anyway. I watched them two weeks ago against Mid Ten St and though they blew a lead and ended up getting a SU win but a push for their backers, they look like a competent team.
New Mexico State?
I've seen them play too, and they look incompetent at best.

I think the Bears are capable of doing some damage in the air tonight. It's unlikely that QB Clark will play but even if he's out again the freshman QB Bailey has some experience under his belt now and should be able to improve a little bit more from game to game.
In his first game he went 7 for 16, 57 yards, one TD, no INT's.
Next game, he went 16-31 for 278 yards, one TD and no INT's.

Two other factors I like about tonight's game.
The Aggies are off an upset over Liberty so I'm hoping they'll come in a little bit flat.
And, their quarterback's name is Fife, as in Barney Fife.
Entirely irrelevant, but I'm still not betting on the guy.

I bought in for a little Wednesday night action, minor investment. The line opened at Mizzou St -1' and is dropping.
It's available anywhere from Pk to the Bears -1',
The WAN is -1, so that's what I'll use here.

My play:
Mizzou St -1

Good luck to anyone here aiming for some midweek action on a Wednesday night.

Update:
This one's in trouble.
Clark is playing, but it's not a good thing.
He's already thrown TWO interceptions, in just the first quarter alone, BOTH in the red zone.

Tied 7-7, Q2, and an Aggie cornerback just dropped what would have been a third interception.

I need the coach to pull Clark and put in the freshman Bailey, the guy with NO interceptions in his last two games.

Update #2: Five straight incompletions that aren't even close to being catches, followed by two straight sacks because he's scared to throw the ball and is holding on to it too long.

In a quarterback's eyes you can see a look of confidence, control and leadership, or you can see the opposite - confusion, doubt, and uncertainty. Clark looks lost. Making matters worse, he's bitching, complaining and finger pointing, trying to blame his receivers for his poor throws.

Anyone have Mizzoo Coach Beard's phone number?
I want to call him and ask him what game he's watching.
Put the freshman back in!
 
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RBD said:
On to today's card.
But first:
I was channel flipping between TCU/Arizona State and Minnesota Lynx at Phoenix Mercury last night.
A commercial came on for generic Viagra.
I figured it was during the TCU game.
The commercial ended and it went back to the game - Minnesota at Phoenix.
Which begs the question - WHY?

Generic viagra.
A WNBA game.
Talk about not knowing your target audience...
But I digress.
Click to expand...
Back around 1999, I hooked up with a girl who was just out of UT (Tennessee), and she took it to heighten her pleasure, particularly when receiving oral attention, whoch she got a lot of that night..
 
Thanks for the comments and replies, guys.

Re: Where did I catch the yellowfin tuna?
I was down in Guanacaste, Costa Rica for a couple weeks.

Recap: 1-0
Record: 2-1
Review: Won last time in with Missouri State.

I don't usually like betting on teams that have a lot of locker room distractions, such as "is your head coach going to be your head coach next year or is he leaving?"
To win you have to be totally focused on the task at hand - beating your opponent.

But, distractions aside, I like Ole Miss this week.
I hear a lot of talk about Kiffin already thinking ahead to his next destination, and that this is kind of game that he loses, but I think he'll do what he usually tries to do - blowout his opponent.
And it doesn't hurt that it's a rivalry game.

Also, there's this:
One of my models for picking Wrong Favorites says Miss St should be the Favorite in this game.
The record for that model this year is 13-27, making this a 68% Fade.

I paid 3 cents more than standard juice and took Mississippi -7.

Good luck with your plays today...
 
RBD said:
Thanks for the comments and replies, guys.

Re: Where did I catch the yellowfin tuna?
I was down in Guanacaste, Costa Rica for a couple weeks.

Recap: 1-0
Record: 2-1
Review: Won last time in with Missouri State.

I don't usually like betting on teams that have a lot of locker room distractions, such as "is your head coach going to be your head coach next year or is he leaving?"
To win you have to be totally focused on the task at hand - beating your opponent.

But, distractions aside, I like Ole Miss this week.
I hear a lot of talk about Kiffin already thinking ahead to his next destination, and that this is kind of game that he loses, but I think he'll do what he usually tries to do - blowout his opponent.
And it doesn't hurt that it's a rivalry game.

Also, there's this:
One of my models for picking Wrong Favorites says Miss St should be the Favorite in this game.
The record for that model this year is 13-27, making this a 68% Fade.

I paid 3 cents more than standard juice and took Mississippi -7.

Good luck with your plays today...
Click to expand...
GL RBD , hope you're having a nice holiday.
 
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Recap: 1-0
Record: 3-1
Review: Used one of my WF spots (Wrong Fav; record of 13-27, a 68% Fade that said take Miss St.)
I Faded the Bulldogs, took the Rebels -7.
Ole Miss won 38-19.

Next...

I don't bet everyday, I try to choose my spots wisely.
To find these spots during the regular season I have six or seven unique handicapping methods I use, based on situational spots and math models.
But for the postseason in college football I have an additional seven plays that I've been tracking for close to 20 years now. Dropping by today to share one that qualifies for a play this week.

For bowl games, I rate both teams in seven different categories.

For example, I rate rushing offenses, average yards per game.
When I bet on a team to win I expect them to be ahead in the fourth quarter, and I want to know that they can close out the game properly, rushing the ball and eating up the clock.

Another category I use is T/O's.
How many times have we seen a team dominate in the stats, all except for turnovers, and they lose the game. So I want the team with a plus on turnover differential, not a minus.

This year I decided to use the same Seven Categories model for championship week.
And, despite the big spread, I bought J Mad.

Here's why:

1 - They have the better number in all seven categories I rate.

2 - In 18 years of using this model, a data sample of over 700 games, there have only been 14 times when a team had a better number in all seven categories.
The record is 9-5, ATS, 64%.

3 - The T/O differential in this game is one of the largest I've ever seen, 27 (-7 for Troy, +20 for J Mad.)
Average rushing yards per game is also very favorable for J Mad, with a differential of almost 140.

In fact, most of the seven categories have a pretty sizable differential, which explains the large spread.

Those 14 games from that 9-5 record are from bowls, but I'm going to try it for the Championship Week this year.

Yes, the line is high.

Yes, I wish I'd gotten my handicapping work done sooner because this opened at 20' and the board is now split at 22'/23, but a lot of time-consuming labor and thought go into my process, I finished when I could.

It would have been nice to get it at 21, but, as the saying goes, "The early bird gets the worm, and the late 'capper gets the hook" (or, in this case, an extra two points and the hook.)

I got 22', but I have more outs than many people, (especially now that I'm hanging out in Vegas for a while.) Only about 30% of the books I see this morning have it at 22', the WAN is 23.
So that's what I'll use here (giving out plays using lines that most bettors can't get is an exercise in vanity, not altruism.)

Oh yeah, one more thing.
If you're leery of laying that many points (as I am) and wondering how the Dukes did this season as BIG Favs of 20 or >, so was I.
So I checked.
They're 3-1 ATS.
I'm in.

My play:
J Mad -23

Good luck to all with your play this weekend...
 
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Recap 0-1
Record 3-2
Review:
James Madison came out flatter than a pre-op Dylan Mulvaney (someone will get that reference, yes?)
They didn't show any life until the 4th quarter, and won by 17.
I needed 23.

I'd say it's a lesson learned but it's really a lesson re-learned - either something fits one of your handicapping systems or it doesn't.
DON'T FORCE FIT A PLAY.

I tried to use a Bowl model on a game that wasn't a Bowl and I got beat. And on that topic, there are two Bowl teams that qualify for the same model I detailed in the post above this one.

Both Mississippi and USC qualify for the play, having the better number in all seven categories I rate.

I've already put in about 4 hours of handicapping time, running every Bowl game through the various models I use to find picks. And I still have at least two hours of work ahead of me.
I'll share some more stats, reasons and plays here over the next few weeks.
For now, to help you navigate your way through your Battle with the Books in the Bowls, here’s a simple, common, Bowl system (not one of mine):

Bet AGAINST any team that enters the bowl game off of two SU losses in the regular season.

It was 3-1 in 2023 and 5-2 last year, making the two-year total 8-3, 71%.

(Yes, I could list the teams that qualify this year but then you wouldn’t have the fun of handicapping for yourself, would you?
There are people who would choose to win the lottery for a million bucks rather than build a business that earns them a million bucks.
I write for the “build a business” types, who don’t want everything handed to them.)

But I will share this: coming into the Bowls, Cincinnati has lost four straight ATS.
Looking over my charts from the last two seasons I only see two teams that entered a bowl game off of more than three losses, Pittsburgh last year, and Minnesota the year before.

The Gophers (it is Gophers, right?) lost 4 straight ATS and were -4' Favs over Bowling Green.
They won 30-24.

The Pirates, Penguins, Steelers, whatever the hell they're called (F me and my getting-old-brain. I can't believe I have to scan my memory trying to remember what the hell the name of these teams are) lost five straight and were -9 against Toledo.
They lost SU 46-48.

Cincinnati opened around -3 and is now a Dog at +4.
Which gives me more handicapping homework:
In the 8-3 record I noted above, how many times was the team a Dog, and what's their record?

Another homework assignment would be "What's the record of Bowl teams that went from being the Favorite to the Dog?" but I already have that one charted so no extra work required.
I'll look it up and post it here.
Back later . . .
 
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Update: Okay, here's what I found.
For the bet AGAINST teams, the teams that lost at least two straight going into their Bowl game, the record as a Fav was 3-6; Dogs 0-2.

And I checked my data on teams that opened as Dogs but became the Fav, like Navy in this one. Here's what I have written down:

"When a team opens as the Dog but becomes the Fav — is the money always right?

Going into the 2024 Bowls I had the newly crowned Fav hitting better than 70% over the last few seasons.
Last year they went 4-3, not as high a W percentage as it has been recently but still a profitable play.

And last year there were two games where a Favorite became the Dog and then became the Favorite again. The record was 1-1."

Summary:

Betting ON the new Fav is a profitable spot.

Betting AGAINST teams that lost at least two straight in the regular season going into their bowl is a profitable spot.

When the play AGAINST team is a Dog (like the Huggy Bears are here) the Fade is a perfect 2-0.

Looks like a play AGAINST Cincinnati and ON Navy.

And if you're betting ON the Midshipmen (Hah! I didn't have to look that one up) what's the first thing you do? You check to see how their opponent does when they're facing the run game (Navy, as usual, sits atop the rankings at #1, with 281.8 YPG.)

So I looked into Cincinnati's defense against the run.

I didn't see them in the top 10, but didn't expect to.
Didn't see them in the top 25.
Top 50? Nope.
Top 75? Uh-uh.
Certainly they must be in the top 100, I mean there's only about 130 FBS teams.

I better go back and start from the top.
Nope, they're NOT in the top 100.
They're currently ranked at 103, giving up 182 YPG.

Yeah, I'm buying Navy.
They'll DOMINATE time of possession.
And hopefully, on the scoreboard too.

Crazy line. I see anywhere from -3 to -4'.
It's easily found at -4 for anyone who likes the reasons listed here.
So that's what I'll use.

My buy:
Navy -4
 
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Adding Louisiana Tech.
Back with some reasoning when I get a chance.
The board is split right now between -8'/-9, posting today while there's still plenty of -8' available.
 
RBD said:
Recap 0-1
Record 3-2
Review:
James Madison came out flatter than a pre-op Dylan Mulvaney (someone will get that reference, yes?)
They didn't show any life until the 4th quarter, and won by 17.
I needed 23.

I'd say it's a lesson learned but it's really a lesson re-learned - either something fits one of your handicapping systems or it doesn't.
DON'T FORCE FIT A PLAY.

I tried to use a Bowl model on a game that wasn't a Bowl and I got beat. And on that topic, there are two Bowl teams that qualify for the same model I detailed in the post above this one.

Both Mississippi and USC qualify for the play, having the better number in all seven categories I rate.

I've already put in about 4 hours of handicapping time, running every Bowl game through the various models I use to find picks. And I still have at least two hours of work ahead of me.
I'll share some more stats, reasons and plays here over the next few weeks.
For now, to help you navigate your way through your Battle with the Books in the Bowls, here’s a simple, common, Bowl system (not one of mine):

Bet AGAINST any team that enters the bowl game off of two SU losses in the regular season.

It was 3-1 in 2023 and 5-2 last year, making the two-year total 8-3, 71%.

(Yes, I could list the teams that qualify this year but then you wouldn’t have the fun of handicapping for yourself, would you?
There are people who would choose to win the lottery for a million bucks rather than build a business that earns them a million bucks.
I write for the “build a business” types, who don’t want everything handed to them.)

But I will share this: coming into the Bowls, Cincinnati has lost four straight ATS.
Looking over my charts from the last two seasons I only see two teams that entered a bowl game off of more than three losses, Pittsburgh last year, and Minnesota the year before.

The Gophers (it is Gophers, right?) lost 4 straight ATS and were -4' Favs over Bowling Green.
They won 30-24.

The Pirates, Penguins, Steelers, whatever the hell they're called (F me and my getting-old-brain. I can't believe I have to scan my memory trying to remember what the hell the name of these teams are) lost five straight and were -9 against Toledo.
They lost SU 46-48.

Cincinnati opened around -3 and is now a Dog at +4.
Which gives me more handicapping homework:
In the 8-3 record I noted above, how many times was the team a Dog, and what's their record?

Another homework assignment would be "What's the record of Bowl teams that went from being the Favorite to the Dog?" but I already have that one charted so no extra work required.
I'll look it up and post it here.
Back later . . .
Click to expand...
Great stuff
 
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Recap 0-1
Record 3-2
Open bets:
Navy -4
LA Tech -8'

Good move on buying those two games early as the line has got up and both of them.

Today, I'm starting my morning off with Western Michigan.
They dominate every category I rate except Points For, (23 PPG to Kennesaw's 28.)

WM has the better D, PPG (by a TD avg), along with a better number in both rushing categories, YPG gained and given up.

Good move waiting on this one too, opened -4/4', down to -3'/3 now.
The WAN is 3' but there are a few houses already down to -3 (including South Point if you're in town.) If you can't get -3 wait a little longer, it's moving in that direction. Worst case, buy the hook from one of the houses that have extra juice on Kennesaw, you'll only have to pay a couple cents over standard juice.

My play:
W Mich -3

Good luck with your play today...
 
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RBD said:
Recap 0-1
Record 3-2
Open bets:
Navy -4
LA Tech -8'

Good move on buying those two games early as the line has got up and both of them.

Today, I'm starting my morning off with Western Michigan.
They dominate every category I rate except Points For, (23 PPG to Kennesaw's 28.)

WM has the better D, PPG (by a TD avg), along with a better number in both rushing categories, YPG gained and given up.

Good move waiting on this one too, opened -4/4', down to -3'/3 now.
The WAN is 3' but there are a few houses already down to -3 (including South Point if you're in town.) If you can't get -3 wait a little longer, it's moving in that direction. Worst case, buy the hook from one of the houses that have extra juice on Kennesaw, you'll only have to pay a couple cents over standard juice.

My play:
W Mich -3

Good luck with your play today...
Click to expand...
What a great start!

34-0 and still 8 mins left in the first half. Incredible.
 
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Yeah, looking good so far.

I'd say "I wish they were all this easy" but then handicapping wouldn't be any fun.

Of course, the downer of losing the "fun" aspect would be lessened by the fact that I'd be a lot richer, but still...

Anyway, dropped by to leave this note, just a heads up.

Right now, Western Michigan is up 34-0 with two minutes left in the first half. One of the Bowl systems I've tracked for almost 18 years says that when a team gets shut out in the first half take their second half team total Under.

Reasoning - the losing team tends to just quit (especially if it's a blow out like today) and the winning team usually goes to a conservative offense, running the ball to use up the clock in the 4th quarter, reducing the losing team's TOP.

Going into the 2023 Bowl season this was hitting at 67%, but it's come down over the last two years (eventually, over time, almost every stat/trend levels out, which is why jumping on already established trends is a losing strategy for sports betting.)

Coming into this Bowl season I have it at 37-26, 58%.

If Kennesaw State goes into the half scoreless and you're looking for action on the second half, check their team total. If you like the number the books post the Under has been a decent play, percentage-wise.

Although 58% is the bar I set to decide whether to buy something or not (58% or higher is usually a play for me) I won't play the second half spot. I'll lock up the unit I should get with the Broncos and go to work on the next games.

Update: 34-0, a few seconds left on the clock in the first half, the Owls on the 15 yard line, and - they're going for the field goal.

Update #2: They missed.
Serves them right for being Pussy Boys and not going for a TD (not that there's much difference between 34-3 and 34-7, but still, they should at least pretend they're trying to win.)
 
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Recap 1-0
Record 4-2

Review: I used W. Mich -3.
Easy cover but not a lot of fun to watch cuz of the early blowout.
(Could have been worse though, could have been on the other side of it, then it would have really been not a lot of fun to watch.)

The debate on buying the hook (or not) off of -3'/-7' will rage on forever.
My stance?
Varies, based on the situation, and gut feel.
Today, I went hunting for a house that had extra juice on Georgia Tech so I could get a cheaper price buying the hook off of BYU.

The Cougars rank higher than the Yellow Jackets in every category except one from my Bowl rating system (see Post #15 above; 1-0 in Bowls this year with the Mississippi win) and the differential is minimal in that one (GT 33 PPG, BYU 32.)

Here's some general numbers to help you navigate your way through the rest of the Bowl season.

Favs: 7-11-1, edge to the Dogs

Ov/Un: 7-11-1, edge to Unders

Not from one of my systems/models but just general info: play AGAINST teams that lost two or more SU to end the regular season.

So far this year 2-0; Missouri State and Memphis (Western Kentucky and Southern Miss also qualified but they played each other.)

The spot was 3-1 in 2023 and 5-3 last year, making the two-year total 8-4, 67%.
Three year total now at 10-4.
One team qualifies today in the play AGAINST spot. (Guess which one.)

Open bets:
BYU -3, -122
Navy -4
LA Tech -8'

Good luck with your play today...
 
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Recap: 2-0
Record: 6-2
Review: Since my last time in, I hit with it with BYU and La Tech. (Good move on buying and posting La Tech early on the 13th: got -8', closed at 10, they won by 9.)
Still have Navy open at a pretty good line.

Adding one play today.
Gunner gonna be gunnin'.
Ov 1' TD's, -138
 
Recap:1-1
Record: 7-3

Review:
Missed the Stockton prop by one yard. Completes a pass for 26 yards, receiver gets tackled on the one yard line.

Got an easy W with Navy.

Always review losses to see if you can learn anything.
Two of the three losses here came from picks that were NOT part of one of the handicapping models I use, the James Madison pick that I force fit into a college bowl system, and the prop bet on Gunner.

Next?
Nothing.
None of the games left on the card qualify for any of my plays (and I'm not going to force fit anything.)
If the championship game does qualify for one of my models I'll share it here. If not, then that's it for me for college and I wish good luck to all of you playing these next three games.

I'll shift focus to NFL and basketball now, and if I have anything worth sharing I'll stop by.
 
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