College Football Dollaz

Expect OdU to win and cover but not laying on road. Odu should move ball at will abd charlotte only hope is turnovers and just grinding out on thr ground.

Dont have numbers in front of me but just played:

Stanford
Tcu
Uconn
Central fl
Temple
Fla
EMU
Fiu
tenn
Memphis
Clemson
Indiana
South bama
Oregon
Fresno sT
 
Analyzing this UMASS team....how bad is their offense?

They put up 312 yards on 54 plays vs. Tulane. I guess Tulanes defense is fairly solid this year.
They put up 411 yards on 62 plays vs. Miss St. This is the only game they've really moved the ball.
They put up 394 yards on 78 plays vs. FIU.
They put up 122 yards on 61 plays vs. BC.
They put up 187 yards on 52 plays vs. Florida.

Certainly have to consider the caliber of defense they are facing, but this is an offense that is really struggling. They are averaging only 2.6 ypc (a lot of sacks given up). Doesn't appear to be a very strong offensive line based on lack of running and a ton of sacks.

On the flip side, the defense is giving up 414 yards on 5.5 yards per play. Pretty bad job stopping the run giving up 4.5 yards per carry and 200 yards per game on the ground.

ODUs defense has started to gain some momentum in the last 2 weeks. They really do a solid job stopping the run and getting after the QB. Still giving up too many yards through the air, but improving for sure. Offensively, they haven't had too much trouble moving the ball all year long, efficiency in the red zone and kicking has been the issue (until this last week). They've done this without Lawry being healthy at all this year and completely sat last week.

Would love to have Lawry, but running back is the deepest spot on the team and there are literally 3 guys besides Ray that can run the ball well. The loss of Lawry affects the big play ability, but the guys behind him consistently run the ball well without the big play ability.

I think the team keeps rolling here. ODU -6.5 -115 (2 units)
 
ODU game moved to Friday so bet cancelled. It is now -7.5 -115 instead of -6.5 -115. Not sure I play it for 2 units yet. Yuck.
 
Temple +10.5
SMU +17
ODU -1 (-125)
Kent State -1
BYU +6
Maryland -1.5
Wake -3
Texas Tech +7.5
FAU -13.5
Ball State +12.5
A&M -6.5
Fresno +10
Michigan -28
Southern Miss -17
FIU +4.5
Stanford -7
Oregon State +14
 
Looking at the UMASS matchup. Umass is average 285.2 yards per game while giving up 414 per game. ODU is averaging 407 per game while giving up 378.

I would hesitate to put too much into these...UMASS has faced the far superior competition; albeit 4 of the games have been at home. They also had an inferior QB in the first 2 games.

However, UMASS cannot run the ball a lick. Strange because Young had a fantastic year last year. But, they are average 82 yards per game on the ground on 31 carries. Young has 1 83 yard TD run and is averaging under 3 yards per carry otherwise. The new QB has been significantly better averaging over 60% completions. ODUs defense is only giving up 3.6 yards per carry so I would expect UMASS to look to move the ball through the air. As I expected, ODU's defense has taken a step up this year into respectability. They are averaging 3 sacks per game while stopping the run pretty well.

The ODU offense has faced a couple top 50ish defenses in NC State and App State. They didn't really move the ball great, but put up "ok" numbers. The UMASS defense is a step down from those guys. When I look at UMASS, they are giving up 414 yards per game on 5.5 yards per play. They are only getting 1 sack per game. What really struck me though is they have not faced many top offenses:

Florida ~75th
BC ~122
Tulane ~123
FIU ~108
Miss State ~46

So, the only respectable offense they have faced, they gave up 31 first downs and 598 yards. 47 rushes for 299 yards.

So, ODU seemed to have gotten some improvement in the kicking game last week, which should lessen the pressure of getting the ball in the end zone everytime. I expect ODU to be able to move the ball pretty well.

Team total hasn't come out, but I will be on the o52 for 2 units and possibly ODU team total (30?) over for 3 units.
 
Glad the over got in,but team total still not available to me so probably won't play. This line jumped to -10.5 55
 
4-2!

Mem -11.5
Akron +11.5
Bowling Green +30
LT o62.5
Cuse +20
Temple +3.5
Minny +7
UNC +7
South Miss +25.5
Pitt -3
Tx Tech +1
New Mex +14
Georgia Southern +10.5
Ariz State +13
 
Don't mean to jinx you, Dollaz, but after looking at your record and remaining schedule it sure looks like you are going bowling this year. I see your opponent this week is our local State U. A game you should win, I don't know about covering that impost. U Mass hung tough with Miss State , but then what does that mean?
Mass had the lead for quite a bit of that game but MSU seem to be able to score whenever they needed to. Good Luck
bull
 
bull said:
Don't mean to jinx you, Dollaz, but after looking at your record and remaining schedule it sure looks like you are going bowling this year. I see your opponent this week is our local State U. A game you should win, I don't know about covering that impost. U Mass hung tough with Miss State , but then what does that mean?
Mass had the lead for quite a bit of that game but MSU seem to be able to score whenever they needed to. Good Luck
bull
Click to expand...

Yeah, need to go 2-4. Western Kentucky is going to be tough, but every other game may be 50/50. Southern Miss and Marshall at home gives them a chance. Of course, if they just win 2 out of FIU, FAU,UTEP, they are in and they *may be favored in each.

UMASS is an interesting team. I don't know how that RB struggled so much early in the year. And they have a massive weapon at TE....but, they just can't execute. Then on defense, they play a wide 9 type thing with the DE's that really get them upfield and disrupt the QB, but, they can't stop the run or cover anyone. Just a strange team to try and peg.
 
It being one of the 3:30 TV attractions, I'll probably put a small play on U M. Hope you WIN, though. U M really isn't going anywhere. Better off back in FCS
bull
 
I was really hoping ODU was getting more than 2 tds vs. Western Kentucky, but 13.5 makes sense to me. This is an interesting matchup. Western Kentucky is obviously the better team and that passing offense is deadly. They are off back to back road games vs. tough conference foes. Lost a close one vs. LT, won a close one in comeback fasion vs. MTSU. Now, they come home to play a team they probably haven't paid much attention too. ODU, OTOH, is off a 3 game winning streak (all much inferior teams) and a bye having 2 full weeks to focus on the Hilltoppers. Situational wise, I can't see Western Kentucky having the advantage here.

ODU has the advantage on defense though Western Kentucky does a really good job stopping the run. But, they ahve given up 62% passing for 7.8 ypa and an opposing QB rating of 138 vs. ODUs pass defense of 56% for 6.8 ypa and 120. Having said that, WKY is going to move the ball a ton. ODU has a strong DL and they are going to have to get pressure while stopping the run without safety help. On the other side, ODU is average 427 yards per game on 6 ypp. They are pretty balanced through the air and on the ground. Will they be able to crack the WKY run defense even with the two headed monster of Lawry/Cox? That is a big question mark.

This just feels like another high scoring close game for Western Kentucky. Skill wise, they would wipe the floor with the Monarch if ODU isn't able to kept track on offense. But, I question if WKY can "get up" for a 3rd straight game, especially a home game off 2 tough road games. I don't know that you can put a total under 75 on this game.

If this gets over 14, it will probably be a large bet on ODU for me, but right now just 1u on 13.5.
 
Troy -9
Eastern Mich +23.5
Minn -19
NC STate +19
UMASS +20
UL Monroe +17.5
ODU/WKU o66 1.5u
Colorado +2
Penn State +19.5
A&M +18
 
I'll be with you on ODU this week, dollar. GL
Might give U Mass another shot against a team that can't score.
bull
 
Decent week. Not much to add on ODU, got demolished. Offense cant start that slow vs. a team like WKU that moves the ball at will. This week is about motivation, need to try to figure out where the team is at mentally.

Just a quick pass through the schedule. I have a feeling home dogs are going to have a field day this week. Some great situational spots across the board.
 
Don't have anything on this weeks game. ODU, on paper, the far superior team in every aspect. But, this is Marshall and I can't wrap my head around us laying double digits to Marshall, who has wiped the field with us in the last 2 years. I mean, we could win very easily, but I have a hard time wrapping my head around that possibility.

Could under be a good play? Could Marshalls defense blow that? ODU team total over? Probably 30-35 ish?
 
This upcoming game against Southern Miss is tough. They are a very good team still, imo that is only hurt by the turnover bug. They will be coming out hoping to get bowl eligible and putting a crappy home loss to charlotte behind them.

I guess their top 2 QBs are questionable. If one of the 2 are in, I would certainly recommend a bet on Southern Miss (assuming the line is something like ODU -3?) Last week was a very emotional game for ODU to win. 2 fairly even teams with the situational edge to Southern Miss.
 
I've done ok this year, but seeing more success betting within Conference USA as I get to see these teams up close (at least some of them). And much of my research is in fellow C-USA teams. Having said that, I will probably have more plays within the conference than outside as I just don't have the time right now to spend a ton of time capping all of NCAAF as well as basketball. I'm sure I will find spots though.

Having said that, two jumped out to me. LT -20 over UTSA and UTEP +3.5 against FAU. I faded LT last week and feel fortunate to get a push.

LT and Western Kentucky are by far the class of the conference. LT is averaging a staggering 7.9 yards per play including 5.9 yards per run. They have a great QB and one of the best WR duos in the country in Taylor/Henderson (both I've seen for years) The defense can be had at times, but when you are up big in every game, you are going to give up some yards. UTSA comes in off a bit of a high beating North Texas (score is missleading) and MTSU (who lost QB).

FAU is the second worst team in CUSA so we get a bit of a break on the line when they beat the worst team in conference last week. FAU has lost to Marshall, Charlotte, and FIU. I think UTEP has had a bit of a rough schedule for their caliber of team. Texas, Army, USM, LT....even ODU and UTSA are decent. THe loss to FIU is a head scratcher. However, on paper UTEP has the advantage everywhere. They have one of the leagues best running backs and actually have a better passing game than FAU. The switch at QB helped them, imo. While UTEP does not have a great defense, FAU's is worse and they cannot stop the run. That is scary when you face Jones. I wanted more with UTEP, but I think UTEP wins straight up. Travel is a concern, but not enough for me to lay off.
 
Dollaz said:
I've done ok this year, but seeing more success betting within Conference USA as I get to see these teams up close (at least some of them). And much of my research is in fellow C-USA teams. Having said that, I will probably have more plays within the conference than outside as I just don't have the time right now to spend a ton of time capping all of NCAAF as well as basketball. I'm sure I will find spots though.

Having said that, two jumped out to me. LT -20 over UTSA and UTEP +3.5 against FAU. I faded LT last week and feel fortunate to get a push.

LT and Western Kentucky are by far the class of the conference. LT is averaging a staggering 7.9 yards per play including 5.9 yards per run. They have a great QB and one of the best WR duos in the country in Taylor/Henderson (both I've seen for years) The defense can be had at times, but when you are up big in every game, you are going to give up some yards. UTSA comes in off a bit of a high beating North Texas (score is missleading) and MTSU (who lost QB).

FAU is the second worst team in CUSA so we get a bit of a break on the line when they beat the worst team in conference last week. FAU has lost to Marshall, Charlotte, and FIU. I think UTEP has had a bit of a rough schedule for their caliber of team. Texas, Army, USM, LT....even ODU and UTSA are decent. THe loss to FIU is a head scratcher. However, on paper UTEP has the advantage everywhere. They have one of the leagues best running backs and actually have a better passing game than FAU. The switch at QB helped them, imo. While UTEP does not have a great defense, FAU's is worse and they cannot stop the run. That is scary when you face Jones. I wanted more with UTEP, but I think UTEP wins straight up. Travel is a concern, but not enough for me to lay off.
Click to expand...


Are they going to just not put a line up for the ODU game? I mean, Is Mullens really that important?
 
Waiting for that line myself, so you have company. Thanks for those other c-USA posts. I did have utep circled and will likely add L T. That's Holtz's team , right'?
G L
 
bull said:
Waiting for that line myself, so you have company. Thanks for those other c-USA posts. I did have utep circled and will likely add L T. That's Holtz's team , right'?
G L
Click to expand...

Yep, Holtz. Think huge class difference here.
 
Watch out for Howard of Southern Miss, dude could be a stud. Luckily for us, he was a true freshman making first start and turned the ball over.

ODU -=10 next week? If ODU can slow down the run, they win going away.
 
Just ran my numbers for ODU/FAU. I come out with something like 41-27. However, I think FAU's offense has gained a bit of steam the last couple weeks (competition?) and the running game has done well. FAUs defense is a big weakness.

I'm really shocked that FEI has ODU with the 28th ranked offense. That is certainly too high as I think the offense has been a bit sluggish at times with the OL being a bit of a weakness...that is covered up by two outstanding RBs, a mobile QB, and a passing game that is just throw it up to some big WRs (3 starters all over 6 foot). But, they have scored tds on 55% of their drives and haven't turned the ball over much. They have been in a lot of garbage time situations lately which has put them in a shell. Against FAU, I think they should have some success, particularly on the ground.

The obvious concern is a bit of a letdown spot, but hopefully the guys are fired up after FAU costs them a bowl bid last year.

ODU -8 1u
over 62.5 2.5u (big bet for me)
 
Adding Colorado -4.5
Colorado -4.5
Cal +10.5

Will most certainly be on Southern miss if the line is in the range of what I expect. I almost hope Howard is the starting QB.
 
Score prediction was close. we need a miracle Western Kentucky loss to Marshall and a win over FIU for a title game opportunity.
 
I don't think I've analyzed a game where the numbers work out like this:

FIU offense vs. ODU defense:
388 yards vs. 389
5.5 ypp vs. 5.5 ypp
4.4 ypc vs. 4.1 ypc
6.7 ypa vs. 7.2 ypa
23.6 ppg vs. 27.8 ppg

ODU offense vs. FIU defense:
426 ypg vs. 426 ypg
6.3 ypp vs. 6.3 ypp
5.0 ypc vs. 5.1 ypc
8.0 ypa vs. 7.7 ypa
35.5 ppg vs. 34.2 ppg

35-24 final?
 
Something to keep in mind for this game. ODU has a chance to go to the cusa championship (believe it or not). They need to beat FIU and then Marshall beat WK. Obviously, it is far from likely, but ODU plays at 3:30 and WK plays at 7. So, I don't think ODU comes out flat as they need to win to put pressure on WK. OTOH, if FIU beats ODU, then there is a chance WK comes out flat with not much to play for.
 
No play here this week. Lean FIU by a hair. They are better than record shows.

I mat regret this 5 mins in but big play on sothern miss +14 and a little bit on ML. Little on usm tt over

LT defense is not good. Mullins seems to be back but this isnt reliant on him playing. If USM can go a game with turning the ball over, they win.

LT wrapped up a spot in the title game. USM can get to bowl game with a win. USM just needs something to go right early (last few, they been wrecked in 1Q).
 
Looking at western Kentucky. I think they cover anyways, but they have something to play for. Have to win if ODU wins but if ODU loses, they still have home field to play for.
 
Huge thanks on SMiss!! Ended up my biggest net winner on the day and I probably overlook it without you pointing me that direction. I owe you an assist!
 
s--k said:
Huge thanks on SMiss!! Ended up my biggest net winner on the day and I probably overlook it without you pointing me that direction. I owe you an assist!
Click to expand...

Glad it helped someone. It was a huge play for me. (I added some 1H too). I dont post "game of the years," but it was probably my favorite play of the year
 
I have a ton of thoughts, but not much time. I don't think ODU should be a 2 td favorite today. FIU is much better than that, imo.
 
I hate to post it, but I would play at 9.5 as well. I put down a ton on Western Kentucky at opening and would play it for just as must at -9.5. I don't see how LT keeps them under 45.
 
Have 3u on western ky at -7 (-120). Adding a Unit on LT +11 and adding WK o45.

I would be shocked if wk does t score 50. Its a matter of how often LT can score. Hope it ends on 10
 
No clue on ODU today. DL of eastern Michigan scares me. May get involved in over live if ODUs OL looks competent. They are out 2 starters
 
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