College Football Dollaz

Dollaz

Dollaz

Egor Demin Watch Club Member
Futures:
Michigan to win Big 10 +130
UNC to win ACC +1000

Tenn u9.5 +120
FSU u 10 -130
Houston u9 +130
Michigan o10 -125
Miss State o6.5 -130 (2 units)
Georgia o9 -110


Week 1:
App State +21
Louisville -39
Indiana -9
Indiana/FIU o61
Michigan -40.5
NMSU +9
UGA -2.5
Stanford -15.5
 
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clowncar said:
good luck dollaz.

Monarchs look pretty improved to me
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Thanks, you too. They somehow almost snuck into a bowl game last year and should have more talent this year.

Pretty much anyone important (besides Misher) returns for ODU. The real spot that I'm concerned with is OL. The team has been trying to counter that by adding a TE to the offense and are finally able to do that this year. (last year top 2 TEs got hurt in camp). This year they have about 5 solid choices including a former backup QB. The starter is Vaughn, a former WR that is now 260 pounds of muscle. QB play held them back last year until Washington was converted back to QB. He then went down with a torn ACL (is back 100% now) and Bentley actually showed some improvement in the last 3 games (9 td:1 int). He provides an experienced (and talented-3/4 star) backup.

They are absolutely loaded at RB. Lawry had a huge season despite having injuries throughout. Backup Cox looks to be a hair behind Lawry, this guy really impressed me last year. There are several other options here as well. WR is skilled and deep as always. Nice mix of big guys and smaller burners. Pascal should have another great season. I don't know what to expect at OL. New coach there and a lot of turnover. Starting LT is a redshirt freshman. Not much depth. This is the key area, if they are decent, the team goes to a bowl game, but this unit could also be a disaster.

The defense has always been the problem and has never been anything resembling an FBS caliber defense. Last year they rose from probably worst in NCAA to around 100ish. Return all but a safety. The DL is a bit small, but very talented and deep. The DL can really get after the passer if they can figure out a way to get into passing downs. I really like the DL and the depth is very good so injuries should not be a big concern. They have some younger DTs that I hope can help with the run. 8 deep. They could have 3 seniors starting at LB with 3 former 3 star prospects behind them. The secondary did its job last year, but really werent tested because the defense was run on so much. There are plenty of defensive backs and 3 star 1st and 2nd year players behind the starters. I think the defense could make big push this year into the 75 range if they can improve stopping the run, which they can because they can test the secondary in man coverage this year.

Special teams has been a disaster. The punter is a true freshman so who knows. Kicker was solid last year. I do think they can improve as the guys on special teams will be bigger and faster than last year. They had so many guys redshirting that some pretty bad players were forced to play teams.


They play 7 teams that are higher than 100 ranked and should be favored in 5 of them; Hampton, UTSA, UMASS, Florida Int, @Charlotte and dogs at Utep and Florida Atlantic. They really need to go 5-2 here, but should be at least 4-3. 3 games are likely blowouts; @App State (though they catch them in a perfect spot, revenge game and after App State faces Tenn), @NC State, and @Western Kentucky. Last 2 games are home games vs. Marshall and Southern Miss. They should probably be dogs in both games, but I think Southern Miss is a question mark this year.

I think 6-6 is most realistic. 5-7 probably a little more realistic than 7-5.
 
Dollaz what are you seeing in Mississippi St team wins over 6.5? They're in rebuilding mode after Dak Prescott graduated
 
bluedevilboy said:
Dollaz what are you seeing in Mississippi St team wins over 6.5? They're in rebuilding mode after Dak Prescott graduated
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I have a ton of respect for Dan Mullen. He's been coaching since 09 at Messy State and outside of his first year (5-7), he's never been below 7 wins. Furthermore, they have finished in the top 20 (S&P) in each of the past 3 years. They have good balance. I think people are just thinking they struggle because Dak left, but the were certainly not a team that was made just by the QB. Mullen knows how to develop QBs and had decent QB play before Dak. I think they figure out something at QB with Fitzgerald,Williams, Roberts, and Tiano. Obviously there is risk here.

All of the running backs and WRs are back except Wilson. Experienced OL with 3 seniors starting. Most everything back on defense. I think they are a very experienced team that also have some talented young guys that might push to start.

Thats the team, but look at the schedule:

3 guarenteed wins in South Bama, Mass, and Samford. 2 games they should be significant favorites in South Carolina and Kentucky. 3 probable losses in LSU, Bama, Ole Miss. That leaves winning 3-4 games out of:

Home vs. Auburn (I'm not high on them)
@ BYU very winnable game
Home vs. Texas A&M
Home vs. Arkansas

I think schedule suits them and they could easily start 7-1. Play the teams they probably cant beat on the road, which makes the home games very winnable.
 
Jimmydafreak said:
So, do you think Georgia beats UNC?
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Chubb seems to be good to go. I expect Georgia to win, but I am high on both teams. I have UGA as 5-7 points better. Though, it may depend on QB. I think the vets may give them a better chance of winning early, but the Eason might be the best option for long term success.
 
Dollaz said:
Chubb seems to be good to go. I expect Georgia to win, but I am high on both teams. I have UGA as 5-7 points better. Though, it may depend on QB. I think the vets may give them a better chance of winning early, but the Eason might be the best option for long term success.
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I see that you're bullish on both teams, which is why I asked the question. I suppose I also asked because it's a game I have looked at closely. I agree that Georgia should win the game, but UNC has a nice squad and is certainly capable of pulling the upset here. I generally don't like wagering on new coaching staffs in week one, but I may make an exception here. I have been a long time (a very long time) critic of Mark Richt, so I feel anything would be an improvement over him. I may jump on the UGA bandwagon and buy them down to -2.5.
 
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Jimmydafreak said:
I see that your bullish on both teams, which is why I asked the question. I suppose I also asked because it's a game I have looked at closely. I agree that Georgia should win the game, but UNC has a nice squad and is certainly capable of pulling the upset here. I generally don't like wagering on new coaching staffs in week one, but I may make an exception here. I have been a long time (a very long time) critic of Mark Richt, so I feel anything would be an improvement over him. I may jump on the UGA bandwagon and buy them down to -2.5.
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Im far from an SEC apologist, but the athletes for Georgia are going to have an advantage over UNC. I love the combo of Smart/Chaney. I also worry about the change in week 1, but still view Georgia as the better team.
 
Dollaz said:
Im far from an SEC apologist, but the athletes for Georgia are going to have an advantage over UNC. I love the combo of Smart/Chaney. I also worry about the change in week 1, but still view Georgia as the better team.
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Even though UNC has three players rated in the top 101 by PFF versus only one by Georgia, I agree that Georgia has far more talent and depth. If you take a peak at recruiting rankings, this is essentially a contest of 4* & 5* athletes versus 3* athletes. I think my reluctance to pull the trigger on Georgia is that I can't mentally get past my Mark Richt syndrome - which is to say that Georgia will be completely undisciplined, and will find a way to lose the game. I also feel this is almost a MUST WIN for Kirby. When you are replacing a 10-win coach, you just can't lay an egg against an ACC foe in the opening week of the season!

I suppose if I can overcome the Mark Richt syndrome, I'll probably have a little coin riding on the Dawgs.
 
i made a lot of money fading richt over the years.... replace richt for any relatively competant coach and georgia has at least 1 bcs championship. the amount of talent that guy had on his team and in his back yard was rediculous. i feel that he will struggle in miami personally.

and when you say he must win this game against an ACC team lets also throw in a mediocre at best ACC team historically speaking. i cant imagine boosters being too thrilled with an opening loss to UNC.. thats like losing to Iowa
 
traderjoe13 said:
i made a lot of money fading richt over the years.... replace richt for any relatively competant coach and georgia has at least 1 bcs championship. the amount of talent that guy had on his team and in his back yard was rediculous. i feel that he will struggle in miami personally.

and when you say he must win this game against an ACC team lets also throw in a mediocre at best ACC team historically speaking. i cant imagine boosters being too thrilled with an opening loss to UNC.. thats like losing to Iowa
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Mark Richt is a complete buffoon. Nice guy by all accounts, but a complete buffoon as a coach. And of course he's going to fail at Miami. The only thing that kept him propped at UGA was the incredible talent he was surrounded by in Athens. He couldn't help but to stumble over some 5* every now and again.

To truly gauge how horrendous Richt has been in terms of winning championships, checkout the top 100 NFL players. I think Georgia has more in the top 100 than any other school, and Richt basically has nothing to show for it! Buffoon!
 
That is one of the reasons I like Georgia a lot. But on the issue of talent, he had a lot of 5 star talent, but he never over recruited which really hurt the depth of the team. So when they were on, they looked like world beaters and had numerous NFL players, but when they had a couple injuries, they went in the tank.

I have a ton of respect for the new staff, it's just a matter of if I'm expecting too much of them right away.
 
Dollaz said:
That is one of the reasons I like Georgia a lot. But on the issue of talent, he had a lot of 5 star talent, but he never over recruited which really hurt the depth of the team. So when they were on, they looked like world beaters and had numerous NFL players, but when they had a couple injuries, they went in the tank.

I have a ton of respect for the new staff, it's just a matter of if I'm expecting too much of them right away.
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The other big issue is QB. Clearly Eason is the QB of the future, but what will Kirby do for game 1?
 
I appreciate your dialog, Dollaz, Jimmy, and Trader. I lean Gorgia and thank you for the encouragement.
bull
 
I know Bama improved against spread teams but I would be concerned a little bit about how his defense fairs against a spread attack of this nature. With that said, UNC will have to pass with success to move it, I am not sure Georgia will. They should be able to run on this opponent and if they cannot then either UNC has made HUGE strides on their rush defense or Georgia won't be a contender this year.

Should be one of the more entertaining games of week 1.
 
http://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...starters-experience-lsu-louisville-ohio-state

Here is an interesting article. ODU ranks number 1 in offensive production returning and 23 in defensive production. The offense is projected to average 5.4 points more per game while the defense is expected to average 2.3 points less per game.

I think the offense is more accurate than the defense. The positive on offense is that there was a clear difference in the 2nd half of the year with the performance of both the freshman QB and his replacement (until he got hurt) in Washington that was converted back from WR to QB. The QB is much more stable this year and in turn the offense should more easily gel. The downside is they lost 60% of their starting OL. Luckily, 4 of the 5 new starters have experience with the only newcomer being the projected left guard. It is possible the OL holds back the offense a bit.

This defense should be a major improvement over last year. If it is not, I will question the job that the DC has done. This is an extremely deep and talented DL (relative to this conference). This line easily goes 10 deep with talented players. They have very promising edge rushers in Ximines, Ward, and Appough; they have a stout DT in Coward. They have a couple solid run stuffers. As importantly, they are much bigger than in the past. The starting line should go. 240, 307, 307, 280.

The starting linebackers are all seniors. Each spot has a solid 2 star redshirt freshman or soph behind them.

The secondary returns virtually everyone. There are 4 corners that return from last year (2 being starters) as well as a former 3 starter freshman recruit and an income 3 star recruit. The starting safeties, who were solid last year, are returning, but have lost their jobs to talented young players. The safety spot may be just as deep as the DL. They even have 3 star recruits as 3rd and 4th string at safety.

This defense should be in the top half of C-USA and if it is not, there needs to be another major shakeup on the defensive side. This it by far the most talented defense we have ever had (which isn't saying a lot). I expect the defense is make a far bigger jump than the offense.
 
I tend to agree with Clowncar on this one. I see this contest being pretty even. My only concern for NMSU is their small DL vs. the massive UTEP OL.
 
I welcome your thoughts on your Indiana pick. Sudfelt was a stud and will Hoosiers be ready to lay TD+ on the road in opener without him ? GL. Bull
 
bull said:
I welcome your thoughts on your Indiana pick. Sudfelt was a stud and will Hoosiers be ready to lay TD+ on the road in opener without him ? GL. Bull
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I have no concern at QB. They have some talented guys and a very easy QB system.
 
Old Dominion is an under team this year, imo. The DL is just creating havoc and the defense will surprise people this year. The team is stacked at RB and the team is looking to take advantage of that with a 3 headed RB attack with a running QB. They are implementing 1-2 TE sets and will really limit the 4 WR sets we typically saw. Slower, better defense, and more running should equal under.
 
What's the best way to follow this game? I may be overlooking it but I can't find a stream.
 
ODU@App State.

Last year- 49-0 App State on ODU's turf.

App State. Run first team that runs a unique option despite not having a true running threat at QB. vs. Tennessee they average 3.97 yards per play and gave up 4.04. ODU averaged 7.5 yards per play and gave up 3.6 yards per play.

I think people are giving App State too much credit. While, I was impressed, I thought it was about as poorly as you could expect from Tenn. They came out flat and I think partially due to looking ahead to the next week while this was App States super bowl. What we have here is a nice little sandwich spot with App State coming off a crushing loss, playing at home against a team they beat by 49, then looking ahead to Miami next week. In terms of situations, I don't think it gets any better for ODU.

The App State line play was impressive on both sides. That is going to give them a real advantage over the Monarchs (mainly their DL vs. our OL). But, App States offense was pretty pedestrian and struggled to pass at all. I didn't think their secondary played all that well either; more so just a stupid game from Dobbs.

Matching up...I think App State will look to run the ball a ton. For totals purposes, this falls right into an under bc ODU tends to play safe and try to eliminate big plays. They will allow teams to control the clock and move 10-12 plays down the field. Thats not a good thing for ODU, but they have far more depth along the DL than they have in the past so I don't think they wear down quite as easy. ODU has a pretty good pass rush and I don't expect Lamb to bomb them all over the field through the air.

On the other side, App States front 7 is tough and they are going to win a lot of battles vs. the ODU OL. What I do think will help from ODUs side is they have a lot of playmakers on offense and they will look to get the ball to Lawry/Pascal and get the QB out on the edges to run. That secondary may have troubles with Pascal. I expect ODU to run the ball a ton, run some options, roll the QB out, leave the Hback in to block and try to pass protect.

I think you can almost throw out last years game. Last years QB in the game was Bentley and he's been replaced by a dual threat senior in Washington. Washington isn't great at pure dropback passing, but he is a threat to run and throws extremely well when he gets out of the pocket and runs. Lawry only had 8 rushes. ODU absolutely shot themselves in the foot over and over again.

I think App State is the better team by a decent margin, but this is a perfect spot for ODU. Revenge and a tweener spot for App State. I expect something like 27-20 App. I'm playing both ODU +21 (-115) and under 57.5.

I would consider a larger play on the under.
 
Under is down 3 points, but I would still play it. I expected line to move in ODUs favor, but it hasn't. This is a great spot for them. May add small on ML later.

I will try to add thoughts on these plays, but it depends on time. As you can tell, I tend to lean on my preseason expectations more than week 1 performance. Week 2 is difficult to cap in that sense.

Cuse +14.5
Arkansas +7.5
Ark/TCU o58.5
Rice +8.5
Rice/Army o53
Ohio +3
PSU/Pitt u47.5
Akron +24
NC State/ECU o56.5
Western Kentucky +29.5
Messy State -7
NM State +13
 
Dollaz any lean on side for NC State vs ECU? I bet -4.5 back when lines came out Sunday night
 
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Dollaz said:
Under is down 3 points, but I would still play it. I expected line to move in ODUs favor, but it hasn't. This is a great spot for them. May add small on ML later.

I will try to add thoughts on these plays, but it depends on time. As you can tell, I tend to lean on my preseason expectations more than week 1 performance. Week 2 is difficult to cap in that sense.

Cuse +14.5
Arkansas +7.5
Ark/TCU o58.5
Rice +8.5
Rice/Army o53
Ohio +3
PSU/Pitt u47.5
Akron +24
NC State/ECU o56.5
Western Kentucky +29.5
Messy State -7
NM State +13
Click to expand...

GL in week 2, Dollaz
 
Dollaz said:
Under is down 3 points, but I would still play it. I expected line to move in ODUs favor, but it hasn't. This is a great spot for them. May add small on ML later.

I will try to add thoughts on these plays, but it depends on time. As you can tell, I tend to lean on my preseason expectations more than week 1 performance. Week 2 is difficult to cap in that sense.

Cuse +14.5
Arkansas +7.5
Ark/TCU o58.5
Rice +8.5
Rice/Army o53
Ohio +3
PSU/Pitt u47.5
Akron +24
NC State/ECU o56.5
Western Kentucky +29.5
Messy State -7
NM State +13
Click to expand...

Good luck tomorrow Dollaz.

Old Dom playing faster this year?
 
clowncar said:
Good luck tomorrow Dollaz.

Old Dom playing faster this year?
Click to expand...

Pace wise they did vs Hampton. I wonder if it wasnt designed to wear Hampton down? All the guys on offense are experienced so maybe it continues, but i didnt expect them to play that fast.
 
So Im not always around for openers and I'm typically unprepared. But, occasionally I see I line and I play it right off the bat before they move. This week I did took 3 openers and days later changed my mind on MTSU and USF. Luckily, I have a small chance of a middle instead of losing the juice. Its a risk I take sometimes.

Cincy +7.5
Charlotte +3
FSU/Ville o66
UVA +4
Iowa State +24
Bowling Green +6.5 (This is middle from MTSU -4.5 for me. Otherwise no bet)
Georgia State +34.5
FAU +23
VT -5.5
Syracuse +14.5 (this is middle from USF -12.5 at opener) for me. Would be no bet otherwise
Akron/Marshall u57.5
Oregon +3
MSU/ND o51
Oklahoma +1
Ole Miss +11.5
Georgia -6.5
Navy -6
A&M +4
 
ODU this week...........is a week of I don't know.

They let App State march down the field on the first 2 drives...7 plays 72 yards and 9 plays 84 yards. Other than that, it was good field position putting App State in position to score, but the ODU defense hanging tough. The ODU defense typically lined up and played tough on 1v1 matchups, but all the misdirections and trick plays destroyed them early on. Just an unprepared and undisciplined first quarter performance. After that, they did well....was it just because App State became disinterested? Maybe, but there was some progress.

The ODU offense.....they have to do better on key downs. This wasn't the only difference in the game, but ODU was 1 of 6 on 4th downs and App State was 4 of 5. That is huge. This reminds me a lot of the FIU performance of a year ago from ODU. Partially because the kicker got hurt and we couldn't try field goals (they are letting punter try this week...yikes) But:

9 plays 59 yards no points
5 plays 19 yards
3 and out
7 plays 92 yards TD
5 plays 13 yards
3 plays 9 yards
11 plays 59 yards INT (4th down)
9 plays 57 yards
3 plays 2 yards
7 plays 29 yards

4 out of 10 drives went for 50+ yards and only got 7 points out of it. QB play was awful, worst I've ever seen from David Washington. Run offense did well despite having some injuries in the backfield. Lawry went 15 for 119 yards.

On to NC State:
I didn't watch entire ECU game, but I would have expected a better performance from the NC State defense. They gave up 4.5 yards per carry and 300 yards passing. From what I could tell, NC State got very little pressure on the QB. The offense looks pretty strong so far.

I may end up on the over here. If I had to pick, I would take ODU, but probably will not take a side. I think something like 42-24 ish.
 
Got a couple plays in early. Also looking at a couple.

UMASS +22.5? THat has my attention.
USM -9.5 is getting a look.
ND -21 is getting a look

Played Marshall +24.5
Played ODU -3
 
Adding:

Clemson -9.5
Cus +4
UVA +3.5
BYU +7
App State -6
Georgia Southern +7
Southern Miss -10.5
Duke +20
New Mex State +20
Western Ky -8
Nevada +5.5
Oregon -10.5
Washington -11

All -120 here:
UCLA +3
Messy State -21
Florida +7
Buffalo +14
Texas State +35
Marshall +27
 
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