College Bowl Plays...

horses

horses

Brady licks Marino's knob
Been outta town the last two weeks taking care of some family business, so I took a short hiatus from the season. As expected, it was a completely different feeling knowing I wasn't betting and not having to think about reading news articles and such on a day-to-day basis and then turning that information into winning selections...definitely missed it on one hand but on the other it was a welcome reprieve. The biggest difference was I wasn't as obsessed with seeing as much football as possible...that being said, I plan on a full bowl season and with 34 games, I should be posting 15 or so plays going forward. I generally bet most games as they come, but I do get in some early ones:

Georgia -6' over Michigan St

TCU -2' over Boise St (Loss, Boise St always plays better collectively than the sum of their individual parts; nevertheless, looking at the stat sheet and being at this game...Frogs shoulda covered.)

Wake Forest -3 (+100) over Navy (Win, got lucky with the front door cover, but also controlled the game statistically with almost a 150 yard edge and as predicted, Skinner was lights out.)

Memphis +12 over South Florida (Loss, worst fears came true here as Bulls put together a complete game coming off a bad end to their season and their bowl debacle against Ducks last year; complete mismatch and a bad bet.)

Notre Dame -1' over Hawaii (Win, doubt I'll have an easier cover this bowl season.)

Florida St -5' over Wisconsin (Win, easy enough, Big 10 sucks)

Louisiana Tech/Northern Illinois Under 47' (Win 1/2 unit, only made it to 27 with a KO return TD; fwiw, the better team lost this game)

North Carolina St +7 (-115) over Rutgers (Win, Wilson injury made this cover much more difficult than it would otherwise have been in my opinion; glad to see the +6's get the money as well).

Connecticut -4 (-120) over Buffalo

Western Michigan +3 over Rice

All plays for my typical unit unless otherwise indicated.

'an_horse'
 
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Capital One Bowl, @ Orlando, Georgia v Mich St

Not a big write-up here as the only thing I am really looking at is Bulldog motivation; coming off the loss to Tech, I think Richt will have them in the right frame of mind to end their season on a positive note in a Jan 1 bowl game. The game is in Orlando so betting it now, I am thinking/hoping weather won't be an issue as ideally I prefer optimal conditions. Michigan St played two teams this year in UGA's class against Penn St and Ohio St and both games were demolitions, one home, the other away. They round it out here with a 3rd beating on a neutral field, though UGA should also have the crowd edge as well. Two different class teams here as UGA is better at every position group except RB.
Georgia -6' over Michigan St
 
Nice get on that number. Up to 7.5 at BM now, I made the line 10 and was a bit surprised to see it so low. GL
 
Like it. MSU is way too one-dimensional to be facing that defense.

Glad to see you like it as well Gar; feel that MSU has been overrated all year esp on this board where a lot of the SEMCON guys have been touting them most of the year. I told RJ that Penn St would pound Sparty and this game should be no different.

Nice get on that number. Up to 7.5 at BM now, I made the line 10 and was a bit surprised to see it so low. GL

Agreed CrimsonK; I had this line at 12' myself and now that it's broken 7, I expect to see it push 10 by kickoff.
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msu and minny are two big10 teams that are likely to get blown out...gl horses...

saw your comment in another thread about bama/utah, and i do think it'll be tough for bama to play up to the level they're capable of when they were supposed to play for the national title and are now playing a non-bcs opponent as big favs, but that's not really the reason why i like utah quite a bit. i think this utah team has "it"...whatever "it" is. in the statbooks and by the players that they have they don't look like they should be an undefeated team and i realize they could very well not be, but imo the intangibles shine through when you watch them and they are a group of winners that don't stop fighting and find ways to win ball games in any way they can. i LOVE betting on teams like this. with the talent plus these intangibles, i think they are legitimately a top 5 team (i know it's a very unpopular opinion). i don't think it was you, but someone said in that same thread that they only beat michigan by a couple of points. imo, it is a whole different world playing michigan in the big house in game 1 before they know they suck, and that game was absolutely dominated by utah. a lot better of a performance than the score shows. they should have lost to tcu? absolutely. but many people (not saying you don't horses, you're a guru, just ranting now) don't realize how good tcu is. they gave oklahoma the best game besides texas. i would honestly put utah above ohio state and above georgia. and no, i'm not high. i don't think utah is better than bama, but i think they're a helluva lot closer than 10 pts away, and i think they can and will win this game straight up.
 
Great post broadway and thanks for the wishes.

No, it definitely wasn't me that said 'they only beat michigan by a couple of points', as I agree on your take of the Utah/Michigan game. I love the MWC being an Aztec alum and agree with a lot of what you say about Utah. That helped them win games (at home) where I thought they were the inferior team against both TCU and Oregon St. I agree that 10 points is a lot and while I lean 'Bama, I will probably pass this game a pull for the MWC team. As far as the motivation angle goes, usually I would agree with your assessment, but 'Bama really is a year ahead of schedule here and realistically didn't expect to play a BCS game this year. Think they'll be quite excited after being removed from the national scene for years. I also rate a rather large coaching edge to the Tide here as well. Should be a great game; glad the Utes have a worthy opponent this time around, not a Pitt team that fired their coach after the game.

Best of luck this bowl season BroadwayJoe.
 
What's up brother?

I lean UGA as well, but if it gets up to 10 by game time might have to look at Sparty..OSU and PSU dominated Sparty because they both have good rush defenses..but UGA? not so sure..they struggled against KY, Aubbie and Gtech to end out the season.

What are your thoughts on that? AND Do you think they are happy to be here?
 
Hey Hunt, how you doing? Nice win by the Wolves over the Bruins in CBB.

Clearly, the 'soft underbelly' of the Bulldog bet is their defense; I think most will agree they'll be doing some business on offense. I bet Auburn against UGA and felt a little fortunate to win that bet. Clearly, UK and Ga Tech did some work on the ground against UGA...

I think Richt is a solid coach and the 'Dogs are a little embarrassed by the way they finished the year; once they lost the Cocktail Party the really had very little to play for nationally. They were a top 5 team to begin the year and think they will atone for the sloppy finish to the year in a pretty dominant effort against a team that I think is out of their class if UGA plays to their potential.

Good luck this bowl season Hunt.
 
No problem Hunt.

Thanks Yanks; glad you like UGA as well. Sitting at 7' now.

Pags11...Good to see you; I know you lay low but good luck to you this bowl season.

TimH...Thanks Tim, appreciate it. Haven't looked at the Terps game yet.

Playing:

Poinsettia Bowl:

TCU -2' over Boise St

Not much to say, as this is a popular pick on this board and a lot of good things have already been written. I'll just say that I am a big fan of the Horned Frogs program and they ARE a BCS-caliber team masquerading in the MWC. They are the MWC's best team with a defense that easily ranks in the top 10 nationally and probably a little higher.

I may add USC before next week; watching for any line movement. Otherwise, won't be playing any more games till next Tue or Wed after some extensive reading this weekend.
 
How did i miss this ?

Are you and Azzie sharing plays ?

hehe love the tcu selection ... gl horses.
 
I was all over TCU when I first saw the line, so with you there bro!

You convinced me on Georgia, and I think the difference in QB play will be the deciding factor. Stafford vs Hoyer?! I'm trying not to laugh.

Also leaning to USC...looks like we're on the same boat bud.

Looking forwad to the rest of your plays bro! GL!

:cheers:
 
Thanks TexasFight; I'm thinking of adding to TCU as well, as it should be one of my three best plays for the bowl season.

VK, not sharing plays...Aztec minds think alike!

Azzie, decided I am going to back off on USC; Paterno as a dog in bowl games is sick and I'm getting the feeling this spread is a bit of an overlay based on recent Rose Bowl results...I can guarantee you I will have no money on the Rose Bowl.

Back with this weekends games in a bit.
 
Every bowl season I toy with the idea of altering my betting strategy from a flat bet to more of a tiered betting system; this allows more action, as I can bet my leans for fractional units. I imagine this occurs to me to do this because we are down to the final 34 games of the college football season and I already miss it. That being said…I think I will stick to my “it is a play or it isn’t a play” philosophy, and play my Bowl Unit, with some stretches here and there, as I am considering adding to the TCU play.
One of the 1<SUP>st</SUP> things I do with all bowl games is go all the way back to my preseason power rankings and see where the teams stack up; naturally, plays are not based on power rankings that are 3 months old, but I think there is relevance. I think there is relevance because of the long lay off from the end of the season until the bowl games; teams practice a lot and heal up…it is almost a reset to some degree and teams often regress or step back up to what you may have originally projected at the season start. We often forget how talented a team may be that didn’t meet expectations due to injuries or some other form of bad luck…while teams that overachieved won’t have whatever scheduling perks they had to take advantage of during bowl season. I’ll try and touch on some of this further in my write-ups below.
Note that I don’t do extensive write-ups; however, if there are questions or comments on any games, I will delve into them further based on the interest within the thread. Here are this Saturday’s games:

New Mexico Bowl, Fresno St v Colorado St, If this game was played in week 1 on a neutral field, I would have had the Bulldogs as 2 TD favorites, as I had CSU ranked last in the MWC coming into the season. Naturally, one team fell short of expectations while the other exceeded, bringing this line down to a FG. Really feel FSU has a lot of advantages here, esp along both LOS’s. CSU was one of those young teams that played well at home, but struggled on the road, going 0-4 ATS as an away dog. Lot of value with FSU…but…check out FSU’s last 5 bowl games: in 02, 03, 04 and 07 they were underdogs to BCS teams and won all 4 outright! In 05…the team that almost beat USC in the Colisseum, lost their bowl game to a non-BCS foe as a favorite that they were much better than. The trend is more than noteworthy and I cannot buck it; this game is a 100% PASS for me.

Las Vegas Bowl, Arizona v BYU, Got to think UA is more excited to be here, but at the same time, Cougs are a dog to a Pac 10 team which is a role they absolutely love. Both teams run very similar offenses, so the defenses should be well-versed schematically on how to stop these teams, though that doesn’t mean that they will. I really cannot get any feel for this game, as I can make cases for both teams. Bottom line is that UA closed stronger, APPEARS to be a better team and will be motivated. However, I think Mendenhall is a better coach and I don’t trust Stoops to lay points to a team that plays the BCS with a chip on its shoulder. PASS.

EagleBank Bowl, RFK Stadium, Wash DC, Navy v Wake Forest, 3<SUP>rd</SUP> time in 14 months that the Deamon Deacons get to see the Navy option up close and personal. Couple that with the extra prep time for this game and I think they do a decent job against the Navy option. Wake will cover (or not cover) this game on offense; QB Skinner had the worst game of his career earlier in the year v Navy and I look for some redemption here. I feel Navy has either gotten worked or gotten lucky against this caliber of competition this year. Wake Forest, playing with revenge and better players at almost all position groups should get it done here. Realize Navy is better than just the sum of their parts and that they are 4-1 ATS their L5 bowl games, but I gotta go with more talent at a short number here.
Play on: Wake Forest -3 (+100) over Navy

St Petersburg Bowl, USF v Memphis, this game takes place about 20 miles from the USF campus, giving them a virtual home game. Memphis will have the turf edge though, as they play their HG’s on artificial turf while the Bulls play on grass. Memphis has played 4 QB’s due to injury this year, but starter Hall will be back and RB Steele gives them a better running game than USF. Both teams will have advantages in the passing game as both teams have big WR’s to go against smallish DB’s. USF has advantages across the board on defense, which primarily accounts for this high spread. ‘Dogs of 12 or more are 9-2 ATS in bowl games. USF has lost 4 games outright as a favorite this year. Still undecided on this game, as it will be a play on Memphis or a Pass for me. Concern is that USF may come to play after getting drubbed in the bowl game LY and wanting to prove something this year. Will be reading articles up to the last minute on this game and will post a play (or not) sometime Saturday morning, but like I said, it’s either Tigers or nothing for me.
 
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good to see you back horses... and GL this season bro.

going to be on TCU for pretty big, and wake as well.

no opinion on UGA... not sold on the motivation angle for the bulldogs here- disappointing spot for them and finish to their season after being ranked #4 in preseason and having the bar for expectations set high this year.
 
horses- good to see you on Wake. good luck.
please keep posting your thoughts. Simply put, I play more games than you do, and value your opinion.
I've been leaning Fresno and Memphis myself.
I will be on Wake, and not ready to comment on your other two.
BYU-Ariz will be one of those minority of bowls that I PASS.
 
Appreciate the words Pags...

Thanks CapTwo, glad to see you like Wake and TCU as well. Worst of luck with the Seahawks this weekend...:p

Bull, didn't know you played that many bowl games; I assume for different amounts depending on how much you like each game? It is my intention to provide a blurb on each game, whether I play it or not. Have a great Holiday and stay warm back there...
 
GL horses, On TCU and WF with you as well. I'll be considering playing the oVER in the Capital One bowl or possibly a UGA TT OVER. I would have played it at the number you have but I think it just ran away from me a bit. I see Georgia's skill players having big games.
 
Thanks Crimson K...:shake:

My local still has Memphis at +12 due to some heavy Bull action locally, so I will add:

Memphis +12 over South Florida

I would still play this at 11 or 11' as well; Memphis comes to play tomorrow.
 
horses said:
Appreciate the words Pags...

Thanks CapTwo, glad to see you like Wake and TCU as well. Worst of luck with the Seahawks this weekend...:p

Bull, didn't know you played that many bowl games; I assume for different amounts depending on how much you like each game? It is my intention to provide a blurb on each game, whether I play it or not. Have a great Holiday and stay warm back there...
Click to expand...

horses- pretty much same amount for each game. I go a little heavier on FCS games where I feel most comfortable and do the best; as for bowls I will be 1 unit per game, 1.25 units at most.
 
Thx broadway...I'll be at the PB tomorrow nite cheering 'us' on.

Went 1-1 on Wake and USF...

The New Orleans Bowl and New Mexico Bowl were both dogged as two of the lousy bowl games of the season; in actuality, these were two of the better games I've seen in a while, esp the NO Bowl. For those that complain there are too many bowls, here is a thought...DON"T FUCKIN' WATCH, THEN!!! I guarantee you those two games will have been better than 4 out of the 5 BCS games that people hold so sacred. Remember, ANY college football game is a good thing.

Notre Dame -1' over Hawaii

Both teams will be very motivated; Hawaii, because they get a name opponent. ND..because it's basically the 1st game of their '09 season and the final countdown on the Weis era. It should also be noted that Hawaii does not rate the same HFA as if this was a regular season game...ND will have been there long enough to acclimate to the difficult time change and any shadiness is generally left in the regular season as well. Should be a good game and I actually think Hawaii rates an edge in the defensive front 7 (best Hawaii front 7 I've seen, I think) but ND has edges pretty much everywhere else.

Good luck.
 
Glad to see you on the Domers. Think they snap their 9 bowl drought this year too. Even if they don't, we can REALLY laugh at their fans next year.
 
Agree with your thoughts on notre dame , Horses.

lets collect a winning ticket in a few days.
 
horses said:
Thx RJ, hope you're enjoying Vegas.
Click to expand...

Fun so far. Working from bed right now.

Went to the Vegas Bowl with VK. Good shit and fun time. New Orleans Bowl sucked ass though. That fuckin' kid not getting the first down ruined the night.
 
VK seems like a fun person to hang out with; hope to do that some in March.

Yeah, I just enjoyed that game since I didn't have a bet on it; for you Troy backers, that was basically the play of the game. One thing is for sure...I did not like Fedora's in-game clock management; the commentator was correct...he should have called a TO at the end of regulation to make Troy punt instead of letting them have one last play as time expired.
 
horses, you don't exactly post a ton, but when you do you are a huge asset to this site.

Just thought that needed to be said.
 
JoeP, thanks for the kind words 'bro; I appreciate it.

Very True. Really, his only flaw is being a fins fan.

Then really CapTwo, I have no flaws. :D

Azzie, let's hope so, the Jets always screw my Fins, though.

Motor City Bowl, Central Michigan v Florida Atlantic, been thru this game a lot and still can't come up with a play; I think the total is priced about right and I originally thought the value lay with the Owls here, catching about a TD. Closer examination has the Chips offense as the best unit on the field, significantly. Despite the poor efforts of the Chips defense, I really don't think they're any worse than the Owl defense. Realize Schnellenberger is 5-0 SU in bowl games and rates an edge over Jones here; however, Chips lost in this game LY to Purdue and also lost their last two games of the season this year. The will have a HUGE crowd edge and will be motivated here. FAU had to win 5 of their last 6 just to get here after a 1-5 SU start to the season, and may be content with that run. Going from the nice weather of Florida to this place in the dead of winter can't be too good for the spirits either. I do like FAU at this price, but I think they have a lot of the intangibles going against them here, plus they are the slightly inferior team. Gotta PASS.

Be back with the Saturday/Sunday Bowls sometime tomorrow or after Christmas; will be at the Poinsettia Bowl tonite watching TCU run the 'Wild Frog' formation and hopefully cheering them on to at least a three point victory.

Happy Holidays to all.
 
I can't find a play on that game either horses. Whatever lean i had towards FAU , watching usm outplay Troy without their best player leaves me too scared to back a sunbelt team right now. With you on the PASS.

TCU tonight buddy.
 
Hunt and VK...let's get it...:shake:

Will not be adding to my TCU bet; it went to 3 and a starting LB (all MWC) is out for the Frogs tonite. Still like TCU a lot and is actually one of my 3 or 4 top bowl plays, but I see no reason to get too crazy. I'll stick with my normal bet for this game. As far as conditions go...it's supposed to rain in SD this week on Monday (got about an inch), Wed and Thurs, but not today. I'm thinking they get the game in without too much if any rain; as far as the wind goes, it's pretty windy here for San Diego, but Qualcomm is completely enclosed; any wind you see on weather.com or whatever...subtract about 5 mph due to the enclosed stadium...wind dies big time at this venue.

Hope to see the 'Wild Frog' run wild tonite.
 
Speed, speed and more speed tonight. BOL horses. You know I've got your back on this one.
 
JPicks...Yes, I do, thanks. Good luck on all your bowl plays and nice hit on Colorado St. I swear, Fresno is like clockwork in these bowl games...so predictable. I'm off to the game...GO FROGS!!!
 
No time for recaps or writeups right now, but putting these in:

Florida St -5' over Wisconsin
Northern Illinois/Louisiana Tech Under 47' (1/2 unit)

2-2 to date thru the ND/Hawaii game.
 
horses said:
No time for recaps or writeups right now, but putting these in:

Florida St -5' over Wisconsin
Northern Illinois/Louisiana Tech Under 47' (1/2 unit)

2-2 to date thru the ND/Hawaii game.
Click to expand...

Like both of them. Good luck.
 
Thanks for the Holiday Wishes, Azzie, Yanks and TimH.

RJ, hope you played both...

Sitting at 4-2 for the bowl season with a couple of easy winners on the 'Noles and the Sunday nite game Under.

Today:

NC State +7 (-115) over Rutgers

Rutgers HC Schiano is 3-0 ATS in bowls while NCS HC O'Brien has had great success in bowls as well. Athletically, these teams are very close with the big matchup edge here going to RU with their WR's and hot QB going against the NCS secondary. Nevertheless, I trust O'Brien to have a solid defensive gameplan devised and I also expect the Wolfpack to be able to run against a small Rutgers front 7. Think this game goes to the wire in the 4th in a rather entertaining game.

No interest in the nite game between Missouri and Northwestern; Missouri offense could cover this alone, but I think the cover will be decided on the other side of the ball...Tiger defense is not what it was LY and I don't think real highly of Pinkel as a coach, so laying these points is tough. I will PASS.

Good luck.
 
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