Postseason to date: 56-58, -23.13
CWS plays = 3 units
Super Regional plays = 2 units
Regional plays = 1 unit
6/20
320 - NC State +2.5 -150
320 - NC State +1.5 +105
320 - NC State +175
6/19
317-18 - Oregon State/Indiana Over 7 -165
318 - Indiana +2.5 -185
318 - Indiana +160
6/18
314 - LSU +1.5 -160
314 - LSU +100
315 - UCLA +1.5 -230
315 - UCLA -130
315-16 - UCLA/NC State Under 7.5 -140
6/17
309 - Louisville +2.5 -180
309 - Louisville +200
312 - Indiana -120
312 - Indiana -1 +117
6/16
305 - NC State +1.5 -120
305 - NC State +175
305-06 - NC State/North Carolina Under 9.5 -140
307-08 - UCLA/LSU Under 7.5 -135
6/15
301 - Miss State +1.5 -105
301 - Miss State +185
303 - Indiana +2.5 -230
304 - Louisville -155
CWS Futures
411 - Louisville wins CWS +1050
422 - Field wins Bracket One over Oregon State -150
441 - LSU wins Bracket Two +120
CWS Championship Matchup - Louisville vs LSU +1055
6/11
349 - South Carolina +1.5 -155
349 - South Carolina +135
349-50 - South Carolina/North Carolina Over 9.5 -140
6/10
347 - Kansas State +2.5 -130
348 - Oregon State -300
347-48 - Kansas State/Oregon State Over 8.5 -130
6/9
325 - FSU -185
327 - Virginia -170
329 - Vandy -185
331 - Oregon State -1.5 -150
331 - Oregon State -230
333-34 - North Carolina/South Carolina Under 10.5 -120
334 - South Carolina +1.5 -115
334 - South Carolina +160
336 - Rice +1.5 -130
336 - Rice +160
6/8
301-02 - South Carolina/North Carolina Under 9.5 -160
303-04 - Rice/NC State Under 7.5 -125
304 - NC State -220
309-10 - Indiana/FSU Under 9.5 -125
311 - Miss State +1.5 -140
311-12 - Miss State/Virginia Under 9.5 -115
313-14 - Louisville/Vandy Under 9.5 -120
315 - Kansas State +1.5 +130
315 - Kansas State +220
322 - Oklahoma +2.5 -175
322 - OKlahoma +230
323 - CS Fullerton -190
6/7
305 - Oklahoma +1.5 -125
305 - Oklahoma +195
305-06 - Oklahoma/LSU Under 8.5 -130
308 - CS Fullerton -205
6/3
367 - Florida Atlantic +3.5 -145
379 - Georgia Tech +2.5 +115
386, 390 - ML parlay: Miss State, Oregon -112
6/2
301 - Alabama -125
303, 335 - ML parlay: FSU, Louisville -115
305 - Florida Atlantic -180
309 - NC Wilmington -150
313 - Clemson -215
315, 324 - ML parlay: South Carolina, Indiana -138
317-18 - UConn/VTech Over 9.5 -140
321-22 - Austin Peay/Valpo Over 9.5 -130
323-24 - Austin Peay/Indiana Over 11.5 -110
324, 339 - ML parlay: Indiana, LSU -156
324, 343 - ML parlay: Indiana, Miss State -131
331, 339 - ML parlay: Vandy, LSU -160
333-34 - Miami/Oklahoma State Over 6.5 -135
339, 355 - ML parlay: LSU, Oregon State -135
334 - Oklahoma State -135
338 - Sam Houston State +115
341 - South Alabama -115
341-42 - South Alabama/Central Arkansas Over 10.5 -140
342, 348 - Arkansas -120
354 - UC Santa Barbara +100
357 - Cal Poly -115
360 - UCLA -185
363 - CS Fullerton -335
773 - Louisville to win Louisville Region -145 (placed 5/31)
6/1
367-68 - Troy/Florida State over 9.5 -145
370 - Florida Atlantic -1.5 -120
383 - UConn +1.5 -105
385 - Valparaiso +2.5 -125
387 - Austin Peay +2.5 -155
390, 396, 400, 426 - ML parlay: Ole Miss, Vandy, Louisville, New Mexico +184
391 - William & Mary +3.5 +100
394 - Georgia Tech -1.5 -140
397 - Bowling Green +3.5 -140
401-02 - Jackson State/UL Lafayette Over 12.5 -130
403 - SHSU +3.5 +100
406 - Mercer +100
407-08 - South Alabama/Miss State Over 10.5 -140
410 - Arkansas -165
417 - UTSA +145
421 - San Diego State +120
427-28 - Arizona State/CS Fullerton Under 11.5 -165
5/31
302 - Alabama -130
303-04 - Savannah St./FSU Under 10.5 -155
306 - Florida Atlantic -185
306 - Florida Atlantic -1.5 -105
318 - Oklahoma -215
319 - UConn +2.5 +105
322 - Austin Peay +100
325-26 - William & Mary/Ole Miss Under 9.5 -130
329 - Illinois +165
333 - Oklahoma State -135
335-36 - BG/Louisville Under 8.5 -120
343 - Central Arkansas +2.5 -140
349 - UC Santa Barbara -110
349 - UC Santa Barbara +145
358 - Cal Poly -110
361 - New Mexico +135
302 - Alabama -130 While there's no doubting Spencer Turnbull has the better overall stuff, I was happy to see the more polished Charley Sullivan get the nod against Troy. Turnbull was sitting around 95 at the SEC tournament but was very erratic (walked 6), and Sullivan went the distance in the first meeting with LSU but received no run support in a 3-0 loss. On paper, Troy is the best hitting team in the region and resembles the Samford squad from last year's Tallahassee region. Ace righty Tanner Hicks will get the nod for the Sun Belt regular season co-champs, who has a 3.47 ERA in 93 1/3 innings of work, along with 88 strikeouts and 26 walks. Friday’s game will mark the second meeting of the season between the two schools. In a mid-week game back on May 8th in Tuscaloosa, Alabama posted an 11-2 win over the 25th-ranked Trojans. Alabama threw a mid-week starter and Troy went Johnny Wholestaff, so you can pretty much throw that game out the window. One of the strengths of Alabama is the bullpen, as they're 29-3 when leading after 6, 29-2 after 7 and 29-1 after 8. Freshman Ray Castillo has been lights out in the closer role and posted his 11th save against Aubbie in the SEC tourney opener. However, he did not pitch again in the tourney due to shoulder soreness, but is good to go for the regional. Had he been available to close in the second meeting against LSU in the SEC tourney, you gotta think they probably don't choke off that lead in the 9th. You could probably flip Troy and Alabama seeding-wise, and not many would have a problem with it. Those potent Troy bats were held to just 6 runs over 3 games in the Sun Belt tourney, which resulted in two losses. Alabama isn't going to scare anyone with their bats, but the Tide played really well in the SEC tourney, and SS Mikey White comes in on fire hitting at a .385 clip over his last 20 games (10 multi-hit games). I'll take the SEC team that can pitch it and catch it (Tide turned 10 double-plays in four SEC tournament games and rank third nationally with 76) over the Sun Belt bats that were cooled off last weekend.
303-04 - Savannah State/FSU Under 10.5 -155 Late to the party here as I just payed 35 more cents than what I would have several hours ago. FSU is coming off a rough week where they lost 4 games in the opponent's final at-bat. Savannah State certainly won't go down easy with ace Dustin McGowin on the bump. McGowin sports a 1.33 ERA in 115 1/3 innings of work, a 129/24 SO/BB ratio and has held opponents to a .215 clip. His 129 Ks are good for third in the country, and BA lists him as the #211 (around the 6th round) draft prospect out of 500 in the country. The righty is coming off a ridic performance in the MEAC tourney two weekends ago, where he threw a CG on Thurs night, allowing just one run on 124 pitches. He then came back on three days’ rest and threw a 10-inning, 144-pitch shutout against Bethune-Cookman in the title game, allowing seven hits while striking out 11 and walking two. McGowin was able to log some work on the same mound in which he'll be working from Friday night in Tally. Back on March 9th, he allowed two runs, six hits and struck out 15 Florida A&M batters in 8.2 innings to pick up the victory. I can't stress enough how huge that is. McGowin hasn't thrown against anyone worth a damn this year out of conference (although he did toss a scoreless inning when they went Johnny Wholestaff vs GTech), but he does work in the 90s and as already mentioned is a legitimate pro prospect. Nice measuring stick game for him against the Noles and I'm sure many scouts will be taking notice. All that being said, I don't see Savannah State being able to generate many runs off FSU starter Scott Sitz, who is coming off a solid performance in the ACC tourney opening round vs George Tech. Talent-wise, that Georgia Tech team should have been one of the best offensive teams in the country, but they vastly underachieved this year. I see SSU scoring 2 runs at most Friday night. I'll call it 4-1 Noles.
306 - FAU -185
306 - FAU -1.5 -105 Towson comes into this one playing with house money after the administration was about to cut the program for good. They should probably be a 4, not a 3, but they're solid up the middle defensively and have four guys that hit for power, each having tallied at least 8 home runs on the year. Towson led the nation in double-plays with 79 as the pitchers on staff pitch to contact and put the guys in the field to work. For example, Towson won their first two CAA tourney games by scores of 13-11 and 20-13, which takes me back to the pre-BBCOR era. FAU comes into the regional on a roll having won 11 games in a row on their way to a Sun Belt tournament championship. The Sun Belt was a top-heavy conference with three other solid teams that are in the posteason: UL Lafayette and regular season co-champs South Alabama and the aforementioned Troy. FAU is simply a well-balanced club that can do a little bit of everything. They got speed at the top of the lineup, power in the middle, play solid defense, throw out a couple solid right-handed starters behind their stud lefty (who they're saving for UNC as Dwight mentioned) and have a successful closer to slam the door. If FAU is looking ahead to UNC, Towson has the ability to spoil those plans. But if they come out focused and play the way they have been, the Owls should advance.
318 - Oklahoma -215 The Sooners were sputtering down the stretch heading into the Big 12 tourney, where they quickly turned things around by running off four straight to take the crown. OU sports a 3.01 team ERA and are led by a 1-2 punch in the starting rotation. Righty Jonathan Gray (9-2, 1.55 ERA) and lefty Dillon Overton (9-2, 2.89 ERA) are widely considered the best starting pitching tandem in college baseball. OU coach Sunny Golloway still hasn’t decided what order he’ll run them out. Freshman closer Jacob Evans (6-2, 1.75 ERA) has nine saves this season. He’s also one of three starters/relievers with ERAs under 3.30. Gray, the No. 1 rated prospect by BA, threw a complete game shutout and fanned 12 against Baylor in the opening round of the Big 12 tourney. Overton returned from a forearm strain to pitch five scoreless innings in the next round. In other words, it really doesn't matter which one throws. CCU is playing in a NCAA Regional for a 7th straight year, but I don't think this team compares to the one that upset UConn in a very similar spot in 2011. They'll likely be down their RBI leader in All-Big South catcher Will Remillard. The sophomore has been battling a back injury over the last three weeks and started two games (one at 1B) in the conference tournament, but was not able to finish either. The committee rewarded CCU for their No. 70 ranked strength of schedule, which is pretty high for a Big South team. Campbell was the school that dominated the Big South this year, but they were snubbed in favor of CCU. Campbell won the regular season title, had a tournament eligible RPI, a higher RPI than CCU, led the league in offense-defense-pitching and went further in the conference tourney than CCU did. But CCU got in when it came down between the two schools. Makes no sense to me. CCU HC Gary Gilmore said that junior righty Tyler Herb (6-1, 4.04) will get the start against the Sooners. Herb threw six scoreless in the Chants' Big South tourney opener last Tuesday in his first extended outing since April. He didn't have great velocity but was able to throw strikes and induce groundballs. He's the most experienced starter on their staff and Gilmore believes he will be the most effective in facing an OU lineup that runs out six RHH. As a team, the Sooners come in hitting .283 and average 5.5 runs per game. All-Big 12 first baseman Matt Oberste (.382, 11 HR, 54 RBI) has been a force in the lineup all season. The Sooners also have senior center fielder Max White (.300, 3 HR, 28 RBI) and shortstop Jack Mayfield (.250, 7 HR, 33 RBI) hitting Nos. 3 and 2 in the batting order. The two will be playing in their fourth NCAA tournament regional. OU is very comfortable traveling and playing away from home, and the state of Virginia is like a second home for the Sooners after playing so well in the Charlottesville regional last season.
319 - UConn +2.5 +105 I wasn't planning on getting in the way of the hot Hokie bats, but 2.5 runs at plus money with ace Carson Cross on the bump was too good to pass up. The Big East didn't get much respect from the committee this year with the snubbing of Seton Hall, and you could also make an argument for Notre Dame and Pitt. A lot of people don't realize how hard it is for these northern teams to schedule games. The Huskies got hot at the right time and ran off four straight to win the Big East tourney championship and punch their ticket. That run included an upset 3-2 12-inning win over No. 1 seed Louisville in the opening round, which got the ball rolling and the confidence flowing for the Huskies. UConn sparkplug 2B L.J. Mazilli (.364, 6 HR, 49 RBI, 28 SB) leads the way offensively. The Huskies have a lot of team speed and are very aggressive on the basepaths. This team reminds me a bit of last year's Creighton squad that got hot at just the right time out of the MVC. The Huskies actually fared better on the road (18-14) than they did at home (7-9), and they got some experience with guys that payed on that great 2011 UConn squad which could prove valuable here. Hopefully Cross can silent that top-heavy VTech lineup.
322 - Austin Peay +100 The Govs treated me well last season in the underdog role and this year's team is just as good if not better (an even better hitting team but similar pitching-wise). If they had one more quality arm on that squad, I think they would've punched their ticket to Omaha. This year's APSU team comes in riding a national best 15-game win-streak on their way to an OVC tourney championship. Govs are led by a quartet of hitters: Masoni .388 avg, 16 HR, 68 RBI... Hankins .351, 11 HR, 52 RBI... Harper .345, 6 HR, 55 RBI... Hudson .365, 3 HR, 38 RBI. Keep in mind that the OVC is a notorious hitter-friendly conference (you should see Morehead State's short porch in RF), but these boys can play. Florida played the toughest schedule in the country and did just enough to get their postseason ticket punched. The Gators are running out junior RHP Jonathan Crawford (3-6, 4.03), who sits low 90's and throws a plus slider. In two career postseason starts against Bethune-Cookman (9.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 5 K, 1 BB) and NC State (3.2 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 5 K, 1 BB), the righty is 1-0 with a 2.13 ERA and has 10 K in 12.2 IP. Crawford is a projected first-rounder. Junior left-hander Zach Hall (8-2, 4.68) will be on the hill for the Govs, not their righty ace Ridenhour, as I originally anticipated. Ridenhour gives APSU an emotional boost after returning to action in the conference tournament and tossing a couple scoreless innings. APSU has a solid pen led by closer Tyler Rogers and bridge man Kacy Kemmer. Rogers has tallied 21 saves this season to go along with a 1.83 ERA in 44 1/3 innings of work, while Kemmer has appeared in 32 games and has a 2.81 ERA in 51 1/3 innings. Florida is nowhere near the team they were last season and they've been awfully inconsistent which can be attributed to their youth. I'll take the team that returns a lot of experience from last year's postseason run over the youthful but talented Gators.
325-26 - William & Mary/Ole Miss Under 9.5 -130 The Rebels have been up and down all year, and they're coming off back-to-back extra inning losses in the SEC tourney after knocking off Kentucky in the opening round. Ole Miss has elected to throw junior righty Mike Mayers (5-5, 2.98 ERA) against William & Mary, who could probably be William & Mary's No. 1. In 87.2 innings of work, Mayers has punched out 70 batters over 31 walks and has held opponents to a .231 clip. As Dwight eluded to yesterday, the Rebs will save Bobby Wahl for NC State in what will be one of the better pitching matchups of the tourney early on since stud lefty Carlos Rondon was back to his dominant self in the ACC tourney for the Pack. Wahl is ranked #36 on BA's draft prospect sheet, and he's been battling through blisters all year. Despite the nagging blisters, Wahl has gone out and competed his tail off for the Rebs. Guy is the biggest gamer in college baseball in my opinion. Offensively, this Ole Miss lineup is quite sketchy as Austin Bousfield hit below .200 in league play and Tanner Mathis has underachieved at the plate compared to last season. Mathis hit .571 in last year's College Station Regional, going 8-for-14 with three doubles, eight runs scored, two RBI and alsoi drew 5 walks. His bat will be key for Ole Miss to make it out of Raleigh. Beyond their one-two punch at the top of the lineup, there's nobody that really scares me in the middle. William and Mary's lineup is awfully vanilla as well. The Tribe have a few hitters hitting well over .300, but the pitching in the CAA isn't nearly what they're about to see in Mayers. Ole Miss will face ace John Farrell (11-2, 2.80 ERA), who turned heads in the Cape League last summer. Farrell fanned 86 batters (just 13 walks) in 109.1 innings while holding hitters to a .259 avg.
329 - Illinois +165 Usually I'm trying to find ways to fade the Big Ten in the postseason, but not this year. Anyone who has followed college baseball this year knows that the Big Ten was legit (Mich State was a tournament caliber team and Erstad did a great job at Nebbie). It's been 10 years since a Big Ten team has advanced to a Super Regional and 30 years since a conference team reached the CWS. That Indiana team has a great shot at being the one that finally makes it to Omaha. The Ramblin' Wreck will save Buck Farmer and run out righty Dusty Issacs (4-7, 4.77). If Farmer was on the hill today I would have stayed away from this one. I don't know where Tech would be if it wasn't for Farmer. He's the guy that gives them some stability when he's on the bump. When he's not, they're usually trying to slug their way to victories. Back on the 23rd, projected Tech starter Issacs was touched up for 5 runs on 6 hits in 5 innings by Virginia in the ACC tourney. Illy will run out freshman lefty Kevin Duchene (8-1, 2.69), a pitchability guy who works in the mid to upper 80's and shows a slider, curve and change. Against Minny on the 16th, Duchene worked 6 innings of 2-run ball scattering 6 hits on his way to his 8th win. Six days later he worked 6.1 innings of 2-run ball scattering seven hits and striking out 3. On the year, Duchene has fanned 63 in 73.2 innings of work. Offensively, the Illini are led by brothers Justin (.399, 6 HR, 51 RBI) and Jordan (.303, 6 HR, 41 RBI). Justin, who plays CF and has a cannon, was named Louisville Slugger First-Team All-American. Illinois also has a slick fielding short stop in lead-off man Thomas Lindauer (.313, 9 HR, 37 RBI), who also displays some pop with the bat. GTech is led by First-Team All-Americans Zane Evans (.369, 14 HR, 62 RBI) and Daniel Palka (.332, 17 HR, 65 RBI). Evans swings it from the right side of the dish and Palka swings it from the left. Tech has had a high rate of attrition and they've been up and down this year. Such a tough team to figure out. Illinois is a fast, athletic team with a little bit of pop that will put pressure on teams with their aggressive baserunning. With Farmer being saved, I think the Illini are a very live dog today.
333 - Oklahoma State -135 The Canes were the best fade of the postseason last year as the undeserving regional hosts went winless. Not only did they go winless, they got flat-out embarrassed. Maybe the Canes will take on a win-one-for-the-gipper mentality for head coach Jim Morris who is in the hospital battling pneumonia and is questionable to make the trip to Louisville. Lefty sophomore Chris Diaz is slated to start the first game for UM against Oklahoma State. Diaz is 6-5 this season with a 1.75 ERA, works in the upper 80s to lower 90s with good armside run, throws a cutter in on righties and also shows a nice breaking ball. He gave up six runs — only three of them earned — on eight hits and four walks in six innings during a 7-1 loss to NC State in the ACC Tournament last week. Pitching is definitely UM's strength this season (3.33 team ERA) as the offense ranks 213th in the nation in hitting (.260) and 229th in scoring (4.5 runs per game). The Cowboys have a .285 team batting average and a 2.93 composite ERA. Oklahoma State will run out soph stud righty Jason Hursh, who is the #46 rated draft prospect according to BA. Hursh works anywhere from 94-98, mixes in a hard slider and tosses a spinner that is nearly 20 mph slower than his fastball. Someone teach this kid a circle change for the love of pitching. Hursh worked 5 innings of one-run ball in the opening round of the Big 12 tourney vs TCU, struck out 5 and walked 3. He wasn't very economical though as he needed 103 pitches to get through those 5. The Pokes left the Big 12 tourney on a low note after dropping all three of their games. That being said, this team reminds me a bit of Baylor from last year in that they're gutty and scrappy, although the Pokes don't swing it quite as well as that Baylor squad. With the pitching edge being close to a wash to slight edge to the Pokes, this one could come down to who is able to get on the board first, and I have more faith in the bats of Oklahoma State than I do in the light-hitting Canes. Miami also hasn't fared well on the road this season. The U baseball program just isn't the same as it was when I was growing up.
335-36 - Bowling Green/Louisville Under 8.5 -120 Got to see this Louisville team up close when they came to Lex and came away very impressed with their overall team speed. From top to bottom, the Cards arguably have the best pitching staff in the country, led by BE pitcher of the year Jeff Thompson, who did not throw in the BE tourney. They also have a closer who throws 100 in RHP Nick Burdi. Six-foot-four righty Chad Green (9-3, 2.09 ERA) is set to take the hill for the Cards who was knocked around by Rutgers a little bit in the BE tourney after having success against them twice in the regular season. Louisville came into the Big East tourney riding a 16-game win streak but laid a big-time egg with an 0-2 exit. Falcons are running out ace righty Mike Frank (5-7, 3.61 ERA), who's holding opponents to a .225 average in 97.1 innings of work and tossed a CG against Toledo on May 24th in the MAC tourney. BG allowed just a total of 9 runs over 5 games in the MAC tourney and shut out Toledo & Ball State in the semifinals and championship game, respectively. Like Louisville, BG's strengths are pitching and defense. This BG team was a game under .500 in MAC play, so winning the conference tourney was somewhat of a surprise based on record, but this team had high expectations entering the season based on experience and pitching depth. I know it's not out of the ordinary for a team like Louisville to lay an egg in the conf tourney after a successful regular season, but the lack of offense Louisville displayed in those two games was a bit disturbing. They've been able to get away with mediocre hitting all year on the backs of those power arms, so this probably won't be the last time you see me playing a Louisville Under in the postseason.
343 - Central Arkansas +2.5 -140 You know Miss State's region is loaded when UCA, who should be a No. 3 seed, is the No. 4. And No. 2 seed South Alabama was in the running of hosting a regional there for a minute. To me UCA looks like the best No. 4 seed in the tourney because they've proven they can beat good teams. They went into Hattiesburg and took a series from Southern Miss and have already been there done that in Starkville by taking 2 of 3 from the Bulldogs, who were 18-0 and ranked No. 3 at the time. Obviously, this will be a much bigger atmosphere. The lone loss in Starkville was by a score of 4-2, which I'll surely take on Friday. UCA possesses speed throughout the lineup led by their table setter, Forrestt Allday (.383, 56 R, 3 HR, 35 RBI, 15 SB). Their bats aren't as good as South Alabama's or Mercer's on paper, but the Bears have more pitching depth. They have three quality starters that can keep them in ballgames which is why they have just as good of a chance as anyone in this region. After dropping the Southland tourney opener against Corpus Christi, the Bears ran off five games in a row to take the tourney crown. UCA had been stumbling towards the end of the regular season, and the tourney run has given them their second wind, it appears. They'll run out senior righty Caleb McClanahan (10-5, 2.17 ERA), who fills up the zone and lets his defense go to work. McClanahan sports an impressive 80/10 SO/BB ratio and is holding opponents to a .218 avg. Hopefully UCA's station to station brand of baseball can generate a few runs via moving base runners and getting timely hits. UCA's top six hitters are all upperclassmen, and I don't see them rattling in this environment. Also lean Under 9.5 +110.
349 - UC Santa Barbara -110
349 - UC Santa Barbara +145 Karma is a bitch. I believe politics (Ags athletic director sat in on committee) played a key role in Texas A&M (#107 in NPI) getting in over teams such as Seton Hall (who won 18 road games this year and was #24 in the NPI) and Auburn (won four series vs regional teams; Tamu won one). Not to mention Aubbie won the head to head series vs Tamu. I can live with Auburn but Seton Hall not getting in was a fucking travesty. Feel awful for Aubbie Coach Pawlowski who lost his job after not making the postseason. No offense to any Ags fans out there, but I'd love to see them get drug by the Gauchos. Betting with my heart here. Maybe travel will be a factor for the Ags, who knows.
358 - Cal Poly -110 While I have to admit to having a man crush on Kris Bryant (.340, 31 HR, 62 RBI), the best college hitter in the game (sorry D.J. Peterson), San Diego doesn't have the makeup of a team built to make a postseason run. USD has had to fight and claw their way here due to inconsistent pitching. I believe there are 10 guys on staff that have thrown at least 20 innings, a sign that they were desperately searching for someone to give them some consistency. One of those guys who has stepped up VERY recently has been righty Troy Conyers, a low armslot guy who works 84-87. Conyers tossed a complete game shutout against San Francisco in the conference tourney championship game. What's crazy about this is that prior to the championship game, Conyers had only logged 10.2 innings of work and carried a 10+ ERA out of the pen. As bad as the pitching has been, the defense has been even worse, as USD has committed a whopping 100 errors in the field this year. The short stop position has been a disaster. The Toreros got a couple guys that can swing it around Bryant, but other than that, he doesn't have that strong of a supporting cast surrounding him. Freshman lefty PJ Conlon (9-0, 1.65 ERA) will take the hill for USD. Conlon, one of the few bright spots on staff, began the year working out of the pen (15 appearances in relief) and will make his 10th start of the season. Cal Poly, on the other hand, is one of the more balanced groups in the LA regional. I think they have the best lineup in this field and they play great defense, especially up the middle. Peter Van Gansen and Denver Chavez are as good of a double-play combo as anyone in college baseball. Nick Torres is a freshman stud outfielder with a lot of power. Senior righty Joey Wagman (12-3, 3.11) can take them deep into games on a consistent basis. Sophomore lefty Matt Imhof (7-3, 2.52 ERA) has stepped up to become a solid No 2. Reilly Reed saved 14 games and fanned 67 in 57 innings of work, holding hitters to a .242 average. The Broncos were also solid away from home with a 16-11 record. Not many weaknesses here for my pick to come out of LA.
361 - New Mexico +135 Those damn New Mexico bats are suckering me into playing them again this year. You would think the Lobos have a sour taste in their mouths after their poor performance in the LA regional this time last year. They didn't even hit the ball remotely well in LA, due in part to UCLA's strong pitching staff. Lobos are led by first-team All-Americans 3B/1B D.J. Peterson (.411, 18 HR, 70 RBI) and C Mitchell Garver (.387, 5 HR, 65 RBI). Peterson is the No. 12 rated player in BA's draft projection, and Garver, his protection in the lineup, comes in at No. 234. Trevor Williams (5-6, 4.17), the No. 74 rated prospect by BA, will get the nod for ASU. Williams has great stuff but he's been a bit of a disappointment due to his up and down year. He's allowed opponents to hit him at a pretty solid .287 clip, allowing 116 hits in 103.2 innings of work. Williams is labeled as a guy who likes to pound the zone, evidenced by his low walk total of 23. This should bode well for the very aggressive swinging Lobos, who come in hitting .336 as a team and lead the nation in runs scored per game (8.4), doubles (146) and OBP (.424). According to Aaron Fitt, Goodwin Field is known to be hitter-friendly if the conditions are right, and the warm and dry weather this weekend should play right into the Lobos hands. New Mexico will run out Josh Walker (11-0, 3.91), who deceives hitters with his delivery and low three-quarters armslot. Ever since crazy ass Murphy left ASU, the program has gradually turned from a program know for hitting to one known for its pitching and defense. But that doesn't mean ASU can't swing it this year. Michael Benjamin (.349, 8 HR, 44 RBI) and Kasey Coffman (.335, 7 HR, 43 RBI) help carry the offensive load for the Sun Devils. Tough to go over 15.5 runs here (by far the highest total on the board) as that seems about right to me. Thinking the value is with the Lobos at that price, and hopefully they make Goodwin Field play small. Call it 8-7 Lobos in what should be one of the more entertaining games of the wekeend.
773 Louisville to win Louisville Region -145 Talent gap between Louisville and the other three teams is awfully significant. Price dropped from 175 to 145 this morning, and I bit.
CWS plays = 3 units
Super Regional plays = 2 units
Regional plays = 1 unit
6/20
320 - NC State +2.5 -150
320 - NC State +1.5 +105
320 - NC State +175
6/19
317-18 - Oregon State/Indiana Over 7 -165
318 - Indiana +2.5 -185
318 - Indiana +160
6/18
314 - LSU +1.5 -160
314 - LSU +100
315 - UCLA +1.5 -230
315 - UCLA -130
315-16 - UCLA/NC State Under 7.5 -140
6/17
309 - Louisville +2.5 -180
309 - Louisville +200
312 - Indiana -120
312 - Indiana -1 +117
6/16
305 - NC State +1.5 -120
305 - NC State +175
305-06 - NC State/North Carolina Under 9.5 -140
307-08 - UCLA/LSU Under 7.5 -135
6/15
301 - Miss State +1.5 -105
301 - Miss State +185
303 - Indiana +2.5 -230
304 - Louisville -155
CWS Futures
411 - Louisville wins CWS +1050
422 - Field wins Bracket One over Oregon State -150
441 - LSU wins Bracket Two +120
CWS Championship Matchup - Louisville vs LSU +1055
6/11
349 - South Carolina +1.5 -155
349 - South Carolina +135
349-50 - South Carolina/North Carolina Over 9.5 -140
6/10
347 - Kansas State +2.5 -130
348 - Oregon State -300
347-48 - Kansas State/Oregon State Over 8.5 -130
6/9
325 - FSU -185
327 - Virginia -170
329 - Vandy -185
331 - Oregon State -1.5 -150
331 - Oregon State -230
333-34 - North Carolina/South Carolina Under 10.5 -120
334 - South Carolina +1.5 -115
334 - South Carolina +160
336 - Rice +1.5 -130
336 - Rice +160
6/8
301-02 - South Carolina/North Carolina Under 9.5 -160
303-04 - Rice/NC State Under 7.5 -125
304 - NC State -220
309-10 - Indiana/FSU Under 9.5 -125
311 - Miss State +1.5 -140
311-12 - Miss State/Virginia Under 9.5 -115
313-14 - Louisville/Vandy Under 9.5 -120
315 - Kansas State +1.5 +130
315 - Kansas State +220
322 - Oklahoma +2.5 -175
322 - OKlahoma +230
323 - CS Fullerton -190
6/7
305 - Oklahoma +1.5 -125
305 - Oklahoma +195
305-06 - Oklahoma/LSU Under 8.5 -130
308 - CS Fullerton -205
6/3
367 - Florida Atlantic +3.5 -145
379 - Georgia Tech +2.5 +115
386, 390 - ML parlay: Miss State, Oregon -112
6/2
301 - Alabama -125
303, 335 - ML parlay: FSU, Louisville -115
305 - Florida Atlantic -180
309 - NC Wilmington -150
313 - Clemson -215
315, 324 - ML parlay: South Carolina, Indiana -138
317-18 - UConn/VTech Over 9.5 -140
321-22 - Austin Peay/Valpo Over 9.5 -130
323-24 - Austin Peay/Indiana Over 11.5 -110
324, 339 - ML parlay: Indiana, LSU -156
324, 343 - ML parlay: Indiana, Miss State -131
331, 339 - ML parlay: Vandy, LSU -160
333-34 - Miami/Oklahoma State Over 6.5 -135
339, 355 - ML parlay: LSU, Oregon State -135
334 - Oklahoma State -135
338 - Sam Houston State +115
341 - South Alabama -115
341-42 - South Alabama/Central Arkansas Over 10.5 -140
342, 348 - Arkansas -120
354 - UC Santa Barbara +100
357 - Cal Poly -115
360 - UCLA -185
363 - CS Fullerton -335
773 - Louisville to win Louisville Region -145 (placed 5/31)
6/1
367-68 - Troy/Florida State over 9.5 -145
370 - Florida Atlantic -1.5 -120
383 - UConn +1.5 -105
385 - Valparaiso +2.5 -125
387 - Austin Peay +2.5 -155
390, 396, 400, 426 - ML parlay: Ole Miss, Vandy, Louisville, New Mexico +184
391 - William & Mary +3.5 +100
394 - Georgia Tech -1.5 -140
397 - Bowling Green +3.5 -140
401-02 - Jackson State/UL Lafayette Over 12.5 -130
403 - SHSU +3.5 +100
406 - Mercer +100
407-08 - South Alabama/Miss State Over 10.5 -140
410 - Arkansas -165
417 - UTSA +145
421 - San Diego State +120
427-28 - Arizona State/CS Fullerton Under 11.5 -165
5/31
302 - Alabama -130
303-04 - Savannah St./FSU Under 10.5 -155
306 - Florida Atlantic -185
306 - Florida Atlantic -1.5 -105
318 - Oklahoma -215
319 - UConn +2.5 +105
322 - Austin Peay +100
325-26 - William & Mary/Ole Miss Under 9.5 -130
329 - Illinois +165
333 - Oklahoma State -135
335-36 - BG/Louisville Under 8.5 -120
343 - Central Arkansas +2.5 -140
349 - UC Santa Barbara -110
349 - UC Santa Barbara +145
358 - Cal Poly -110
361 - New Mexico +135
302 - Alabama -130 While there's no doubting Spencer Turnbull has the better overall stuff, I was happy to see the more polished Charley Sullivan get the nod against Troy. Turnbull was sitting around 95 at the SEC tournament but was very erratic (walked 6), and Sullivan went the distance in the first meeting with LSU but received no run support in a 3-0 loss. On paper, Troy is the best hitting team in the region and resembles the Samford squad from last year's Tallahassee region. Ace righty Tanner Hicks will get the nod for the Sun Belt regular season co-champs, who has a 3.47 ERA in 93 1/3 innings of work, along with 88 strikeouts and 26 walks. Friday’s game will mark the second meeting of the season between the two schools. In a mid-week game back on May 8th in Tuscaloosa, Alabama posted an 11-2 win over the 25th-ranked Trojans. Alabama threw a mid-week starter and Troy went Johnny Wholestaff, so you can pretty much throw that game out the window. One of the strengths of Alabama is the bullpen, as they're 29-3 when leading after 6, 29-2 after 7 and 29-1 after 8. Freshman Ray Castillo has been lights out in the closer role and posted his 11th save against Aubbie in the SEC tourney opener. However, he did not pitch again in the tourney due to shoulder soreness, but is good to go for the regional. Had he been available to close in the second meeting against LSU in the SEC tourney, you gotta think they probably don't choke off that lead in the 9th. You could probably flip Troy and Alabama seeding-wise, and not many would have a problem with it. Those potent Troy bats were held to just 6 runs over 3 games in the Sun Belt tourney, which resulted in two losses. Alabama isn't going to scare anyone with their bats, but the Tide played really well in the SEC tourney, and SS Mikey White comes in on fire hitting at a .385 clip over his last 20 games (10 multi-hit games). I'll take the SEC team that can pitch it and catch it (Tide turned 10 double-plays in four SEC tournament games and rank third nationally with 76) over the Sun Belt bats that were cooled off last weekend.
303-04 - Savannah State/FSU Under 10.5 -155 Late to the party here as I just payed 35 more cents than what I would have several hours ago. FSU is coming off a rough week where they lost 4 games in the opponent's final at-bat. Savannah State certainly won't go down easy with ace Dustin McGowin on the bump. McGowin sports a 1.33 ERA in 115 1/3 innings of work, a 129/24 SO/BB ratio and has held opponents to a .215 clip. His 129 Ks are good for third in the country, and BA lists him as the #211 (around the 6th round) draft prospect out of 500 in the country. The righty is coming off a ridic performance in the MEAC tourney two weekends ago, where he threw a CG on Thurs night, allowing just one run on 124 pitches. He then came back on three days’ rest and threw a 10-inning, 144-pitch shutout against Bethune-Cookman in the title game, allowing seven hits while striking out 11 and walking two. McGowin was able to log some work on the same mound in which he'll be working from Friday night in Tally. Back on March 9th, he allowed two runs, six hits and struck out 15 Florida A&M batters in 8.2 innings to pick up the victory. I can't stress enough how huge that is. McGowin hasn't thrown against anyone worth a damn this year out of conference (although he did toss a scoreless inning when they went Johnny Wholestaff vs GTech), but he does work in the 90s and as already mentioned is a legitimate pro prospect. Nice measuring stick game for him against the Noles and I'm sure many scouts will be taking notice. All that being said, I don't see Savannah State being able to generate many runs off FSU starter Scott Sitz, who is coming off a solid performance in the ACC tourney opening round vs George Tech. Talent-wise, that Georgia Tech team should have been one of the best offensive teams in the country, but they vastly underachieved this year. I see SSU scoring 2 runs at most Friday night. I'll call it 4-1 Noles.
306 - FAU -185
306 - FAU -1.5 -105 Towson comes into this one playing with house money after the administration was about to cut the program for good. They should probably be a 4, not a 3, but they're solid up the middle defensively and have four guys that hit for power, each having tallied at least 8 home runs on the year. Towson led the nation in double-plays with 79 as the pitchers on staff pitch to contact and put the guys in the field to work. For example, Towson won their first two CAA tourney games by scores of 13-11 and 20-13, which takes me back to the pre-BBCOR era. FAU comes into the regional on a roll having won 11 games in a row on their way to a Sun Belt tournament championship. The Sun Belt was a top-heavy conference with three other solid teams that are in the posteason: UL Lafayette and regular season co-champs South Alabama and the aforementioned Troy. FAU is simply a well-balanced club that can do a little bit of everything. They got speed at the top of the lineup, power in the middle, play solid defense, throw out a couple solid right-handed starters behind their stud lefty (who they're saving for UNC as Dwight mentioned) and have a successful closer to slam the door. If FAU is looking ahead to UNC, Towson has the ability to spoil those plans. But if they come out focused and play the way they have been, the Owls should advance.
318 - Oklahoma -215 The Sooners were sputtering down the stretch heading into the Big 12 tourney, where they quickly turned things around by running off four straight to take the crown. OU sports a 3.01 team ERA and are led by a 1-2 punch in the starting rotation. Righty Jonathan Gray (9-2, 1.55 ERA) and lefty Dillon Overton (9-2, 2.89 ERA) are widely considered the best starting pitching tandem in college baseball. OU coach Sunny Golloway still hasn’t decided what order he’ll run them out. Freshman closer Jacob Evans (6-2, 1.75 ERA) has nine saves this season. He’s also one of three starters/relievers with ERAs under 3.30. Gray, the No. 1 rated prospect by BA, threw a complete game shutout and fanned 12 against Baylor in the opening round of the Big 12 tourney. Overton returned from a forearm strain to pitch five scoreless innings in the next round. In other words, it really doesn't matter which one throws. CCU is playing in a NCAA Regional for a 7th straight year, but I don't think this team compares to the one that upset UConn in a very similar spot in 2011. They'll likely be down their RBI leader in All-Big South catcher Will Remillard. The sophomore has been battling a back injury over the last three weeks and started two games (one at 1B) in the conference tournament, but was not able to finish either. The committee rewarded CCU for their No. 70 ranked strength of schedule, which is pretty high for a Big South team. Campbell was the school that dominated the Big South this year, but they were snubbed in favor of CCU. Campbell won the regular season title, had a tournament eligible RPI, a higher RPI than CCU, led the league in offense-defense-pitching and went further in the conference tourney than CCU did. But CCU got in when it came down between the two schools. Makes no sense to me. CCU HC Gary Gilmore said that junior righty Tyler Herb (6-1, 4.04) will get the start against the Sooners. Herb threw six scoreless in the Chants' Big South tourney opener last Tuesday in his first extended outing since April. He didn't have great velocity but was able to throw strikes and induce groundballs. He's the most experienced starter on their staff and Gilmore believes he will be the most effective in facing an OU lineup that runs out six RHH. As a team, the Sooners come in hitting .283 and average 5.5 runs per game. All-Big 12 first baseman Matt Oberste (.382, 11 HR, 54 RBI) has been a force in the lineup all season. The Sooners also have senior center fielder Max White (.300, 3 HR, 28 RBI) and shortstop Jack Mayfield (.250, 7 HR, 33 RBI) hitting Nos. 3 and 2 in the batting order. The two will be playing in their fourth NCAA tournament regional. OU is very comfortable traveling and playing away from home, and the state of Virginia is like a second home for the Sooners after playing so well in the Charlottesville regional last season.
319 - UConn +2.5 +105 I wasn't planning on getting in the way of the hot Hokie bats, but 2.5 runs at plus money with ace Carson Cross on the bump was too good to pass up. The Big East didn't get much respect from the committee this year with the snubbing of Seton Hall, and you could also make an argument for Notre Dame and Pitt. A lot of people don't realize how hard it is for these northern teams to schedule games. The Huskies got hot at the right time and ran off four straight to win the Big East tourney championship and punch their ticket. That run included an upset 3-2 12-inning win over No. 1 seed Louisville in the opening round, which got the ball rolling and the confidence flowing for the Huskies. UConn sparkplug 2B L.J. Mazilli (.364, 6 HR, 49 RBI, 28 SB) leads the way offensively. The Huskies have a lot of team speed and are very aggressive on the basepaths. This team reminds me a bit of last year's Creighton squad that got hot at just the right time out of the MVC. The Huskies actually fared better on the road (18-14) than they did at home (7-9), and they got some experience with guys that payed on that great 2011 UConn squad which could prove valuable here. Hopefully Cross can silent that top-heavy VTech lineup.
322 - Austin Peay +100 The Govs treated me well last season in the underdog role and this year's team is just as good if not better (an even better hitting team but similar pitching-wise). If they had one more quality arm on that squad, I think they would've punched their ticket to Omaha. This year's APSU team comes in riding a national best 15-game win-streak on their way to an OVC tourney championship. Govs are led by a quartet of hitters: Masoni .388 avg, 16 HR, 68 RBI... Hankins .351, 11 HR, 52 RBI... Harper .345, 6 HR, 55 RBI... Hudson .365, 3 HR, 38 RBI. Keep in mind that the OVC is a notorious hitter-friendly conference (you should see Morehead State's short porch in RF), but these boys can play. Florida played the toughest schedule in the country and did just enough to get their postseason ticket punched. The Gators are running out junior RHP Jonathan Crawford (3-6, 4.03), who sits low 90's and throws a plus slider. In two career postseason starts against Bethune-Cookman (9.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 5 K, 1 BB) and NC State (3.2 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 5 K, 1 BB), the righty is 1-0 with a 2.13 ERA and has 10 K in 12.2 IP. Crawford is a projected first-rounder. Junior left-hander Zach Hall (8-2, 4.68) will be on the hill for the Govs, not their righty ace Ridenhour, as I originally anticipated. Ridenhour gives APSU an emotional boost after returning to action in the conference tournament and tossing a couple scoreless innings. APSU has a solid pen led by closer Tyler Rogers and bridge man Kacy Kemmer. Rogers has tallied 21 saves this season to go along with a 1.83 ERA in 44 1/3 innings of work, while Kemmer has appeared in 32 games and has a 2.81 ERA in 51 1/3 innings. Florida is nowhere near the team they were last season and they've been awfully inconsistent which can be attributed to their youth. I'll take the team that returns a lot of experience from last year's postseason run over the youthful but talented Gators.
325-26 - William & Mary/Ole Miss Under 9.5 -130 The Rebels have been up and down all year, and they're coming off back-to-back extra inning losses in the SEC tourney after knocking off Kentucky in the opening round. Ole Miss has elected to throw junior righty Mike Mayers (5-5, 2.98 ERA) against William & Mary, who could probably be William & Mary's No. 1. In 87.2 innings of work, Mayers has punched out 70 batters over 31 walks and has held opponents to a .231 clip. As Dwight eluded to yesterday, the Rebs will save Bobby Wahl for NC State in what will be one of the better pitching matchups of the tourney early on since stud lefty Carlos Rondon was back to his dominant self in the ACC tourney for the Pack. Wahl is ranked #36 on BA's draft prospect sheet, and he's been battling through blisters all year. Despite the nagging blisters, Wahl has gone out and competed his tail off for the Rebs. Guy is the biggest gamer in college baseball in my opinion. Offensively, this Ole Miss lineup is quite sketchy as Austin Bousfield hit below .200 in league play and Tanner Mathis has underachieved at the plate compared to last season. Mathis hit .571 in last year's College Station Regional, going 8-for-14 with three doubles, eight runs scored, two RBI and alsoi drew 5 walks. His bat will be key for Ole Miss to make it out of Raleigh. Beyond their one-two punch at the top of the lineup, there's nobody that really scares me in the middle. William and Mary's lineup is awfully vanilla as well. The Tribe have a few hitters hitting well over .300, but the pitching in the CAA isn't nearly what they're about to see in Mayers. Ole Miss will face ace John Farrell (11-2, 2.80 ERA), who turned heads in the Cape League last summer. Farrell fanned 86 batters (just 13 walks) in 109.1 innings while holding hitters to a .259 avg.
329 - Illinois +165 Usually I'm trying to find ways to fade the Big Ten in the postseason, but not this year. Anyone who has followed college baseball this year knows that the Big Ten was legit (Mich State was a tournament caliber team and Erstad did a great job at Nebbie). It's been 10 years since a Big Ten team has advanced to a Super Regional and 30 years since a conference team reached the CWS. That Indiana team has a great shot at being the one that finally makes it to Omaha. The Ramblin' Wreck will save Buck Farmer and run out righty Dusty Issacs (4-7, 4.77). If Farmer was on the hill today I would have stayed away from this one. I don't know where Tech would be if it wasn't for Farmer. He's the guy that gives them some stability when he's on the bump. When he's not, they're usually trying to slug their way to victories. Back on the 23rd, projected Tech starter Issacs was touched up for 5 runs on 6 hits in 5 innings by Virginia in the ACC tourney. Illy will run out freshman lefty Kevin Duchene (8-1, 2.69), a pitchability guy who works in the mid to upper 80's and shows a slider, curve and change. Against Minny on the 16th, Duchene worked 6 innings of 2-run ball scattering 6 hits on his way to his 8th win. Six days later he worked 6.1 innings of 2-run ball scattering seven hits and striking out 3. On the year, Duchene has fanned 63 in 73.2 innings of work. Offensively, the Illini are led by brothers Justin (.399, 6 HR, 51 RBI) and Jordan (.303, 6 HR, 41 RBI). Justin, who plays CF and has a cannon, was named Louisville Slugger First-Team All-American. Illinois also has a slick fielding short stop in lead-off man Thomas Lindauer (.313, 9 HR, 37 RBI), who also displays some pop with the bat. GTech is led by First-Team All-Americans Zane Evans (.369, 14 HR, 62 RBI) and Daniel Palka (.332, 17 HR, 65 RBI). Evans swings it from the right side of the dish and Palka swings it from the left. Tech has had a high rate of attrition and they've been up and down this year. Such a tough team to figure out. Illinois is a fast, athletic team with a little bit of pop that will put pressure on teams with their aggressive baserunning. With Farmer being saved, I think the Illini are a very live dog today.
333 - Oklahoma State -135 The Canes were the best fade of the postseason last year as the undeserving regional hosts went winless. Not only did they go winless, they got flat-out embarrassed. Maybe the Canes will take on a win-one-for-the-gipper mentality for head coach Jim Morris who is in the hospital battling pneumonia and is questionable to make the trip to Louisville. Lefty sophomore Chris Diaz is slated to start the first game for UM against Oklahoma State. Diaz is 6-5 this season with a 1.75 ERA, works in the upper 80s to lower 90s with good armside run, throws a cutter in on righties and also shows a nice breaking ball. He gave up six runs — only three of them earned — on eight hits and four walks in six innings during a 7-1 loss to NC State in the ACC Tournament last week. Pitching is definitely UM's strength this season (3.33 team ERA) as the offense ranks 213th in the nation in hitting (.260) and 229th in scoring (4.5 runs per game). The Cowboys have a .285 team batting average and a 2.93 composite ERA. Oklahoma State will run out soph stud righty Jason Hursh, who is the #46 rated draft prospect according to BA. Hursh works anywhere from 94-98, mixes in a hard slider and tosses a spinner that is nearly 20 mph slower than his fastball. Someone teach this kid a circle change for the love of pitching. Hursh worked 5 innings of one-run ball in the opening round of the Big 12 tourney vs TCU, struck out 5 and walked 3. He wasn't very economical though as he needed 103 pitches to get through those 5. The Pokes left the Big 12 tourney on a low note after dropping all three of their games. That being said, this team reminds me a bit of Baylor from last year in that they're gutty and scrappy, although the Pokes don't swing it quite as well as that Baylor squad. With the pitching edge being close to a wash to slight edge to the Pokes, this one could come down to who is able to get on the board first, and I have more faith in the bats of Oklahoma State than I do in the light-hitting Canes. Miami also hasn't fared well on the road this season. The U baseball program just isn't the same as it was when I was growing up.
335-36 - Bowling Green/Louisville Under 8.5 -120 Got to see this Louisville team up close when they came to Lex and came away very impressed with their overall team speed. From top to bottom, the Cards arguably have the best pitching staff in the country, led by BE pitcher of the year Jeff Thompson, who did not throw in the BE tourney. They also have a closer who throws 100 in RHP Nick Burdi. Six-foot-four righty Chad Green (9-3, 2.09 ERA) is set to take the hill for the Cards who was knocked around by Rutgers a little bit in the BE tourney after having success against them twice in the regular season. Louisville came into the Big East tourney riding a 16-game win streak but laid a big-time egg with an 0-2 exit. Falcons are running out ace righty Mike Frank (5-7, 3.61 ERA), who's holding opponents to a .225 average in 97.1 innings of work and tossed a CG against Toledo on May 24th in the MAC tourney. BG allowed just a total of 9 runs over 5 games in the MAC tourney and shut out Toledo & Ball State in the semifinals and championship game, respectively. Like Louisville, BG's strengths are pitching and defense. This BG team was a game under .500 in MAC play, so winning the conference tourney was somewhat of a surprise based on record, but this team had high expectations entering the season based on experience and pitching depth. I know it's not out of the ordinary for a team like Louisville to lay an egg in the conf tourney after a successful regular season, but the lack of offense Louisville displayed in those two games was a bit disturbing. They've been able to get away with mediocre hitting all year on the backs of those power arms, so this probably won't be the last time you see me playing a Louisville Under in the postseason.
343 - Central Arkansas +2.5 -140 You know Miss State's region is loaded when UCA, who should be a No. 3 seed, is the No. 4. And No. 2 seed South Alabama was in the running of hosting a regional there for a minute. To me UCA looks like the best No. 4 seed in the tourney because they've proven they can beat good teams. They went into Hattiesburg and took a series from Southern Miss and have already been there done that in Starkville by taking 2 of 3 from the Bulldogs, who were 18-0 and ranked No. 3 at the time. Obviously, this will be a much bigger atmosphere. The lone loss in Starkville was by a score of 4-2, which I'll surely take on Friday. UCA possesses speed throughout the lineup led by their table setter, Forrestt Allday (.383, 56 R, 3 HR, 35 RBI, 15 SB). Their bats aren't as good as South Alabama's or Mercer's on paper, but the Bears have more pitching depth. They have three quality starters that can keep them in ballgames which is why they have just as good of a chance as anyone in this region. After dropping the Southland tourney opener against Corpus Christi, the Bears ran off five games in a row to take the tourney crown. UCA had been stumbling towards the end of the regular season, and the tourney run has given them their second wind, it appears. They'll run out senior righty Caleb McClanahan (10-5, 2.17 ERA), who fills up the zone and lets his defense go to work. McClanahan sports an impressive 80/10 SO/BB ratio and is holding opponents to a .218 avg. Hopefully UCA's station to station brand of baseball can generate a few runs via moving base runners and getting timely hits. UCA's top six hitters are all upperclassmen, and I don't see them rattling in this environment. Also lean Under 9.5 +110.
349 - UC Santa Barbara -110
349 - UC Santa Barbara +145 Karma is a bitch. I believe politics (Ags athletic director sat in on committee) played a key role in Texas A&M (#107 in NPI) getting in over teams such as Seton Hall (who won 18 road games this year and was #24 in the NPI) and Auburn (won four series vs regional teams; Tamu won one). Not to mention Aubbie won the head to head series vs Tamu. I can live with Auburn but Seton Hall not getting in was a fucking travesty. Feel awful for Aubbie Coach Pawlowski who lost his job after not making the postseason. No offense to any Ags fans out there, but I'd love to see them get drug by the Gauchos. Betting with my heart here. Maybe travel will be a factor for the Ags, who knows.
358 - Cal Poly -110 While I have to admit to having a man crush on Kris Bryant (.340, 31 HR, 62 RBI), the best college hitter in the game (sorry D.J. Peterson), San Diego doesn't have the makeup of a team built to make a postseason run. USD has had to fight and claw their way here due to inconsistent pitching. I believe there are 10 guys on staff that have thrown at least 20 innings, a sign that they were desperately searching for someone to give them some consistency. One of those guys who has stepped up VERY recently has been righty Troy Conyers, a low armslot guy who works 84-87. Conyers tossed a complete game shutout against San Francisco in the conference tourney championship game. What's crazy about this is that prior to the championship game, Conyers had only logged 10.2 innings of work and carried a 10+ ERA out of the pen. As bad as the pitching has been, the defense has been even worse, as USD has committed a whopping 100 errors in the field this year. The short stop position has been a disaster. The Toreros got a couple guys that can swing it around Bryant, but other than that, he doesn't have that strong of a supporting cast surrounding him. Freshman lefty PJ Conlon (9-0, 1.65 ERA) will take the hill for USD. Conlon, one of the few bright spots on staff, began the year working out of the pen (15 appearances in relief) and will make his 10th start of the season. Cal Poly, on the other hand, is one of the more balanced groups in the LA regional. I think they have the best lineup in this field and they play great defense, especially up the middle. Peter Van Gansen and Denver Chavez are as good of a double-play combo as anyone in college baseball. Nick Torres is a freshman stud outfielder with a lot of power. Senior righty Joey Wagman (12-3, 3.11) can take them deep into games on a consistent basis. Sophomore lefty Matt Imhof (7-3, 2.52 ERA) has stepped up to become a solid No 2. Reilly Reed saved 14 games and fanned 67 in 57 innings of work, holding hitters to a .242 average. The Broncos were also solid away from home with a 16-11 record. Not many weaknesses here for my pick to come out of LA.
361 - New Mexico +135 Those damn New Mexico bats are suckering me into playing them again this year. You would think the Lobos have a sour taste in their mouths after their poor performance in the LA regional this time last year. They didn't even hit the ball remotely well in LA, due in part to UCLA's strong pitching staff. Lobos are led by first-team All-Americans 3B/1B D.J. Peterson (.411, 18 HR, 70 RBI) and C Mitchell Garver (.387, 5 HR, 65 RBI). Peterson is the No. 12 rated player in BA's draft projection, and Garver, his protection in the lineup, comes in at No. 234. Trevor Williams (5-6, 4.17), the No. 74 rated prospect by BA, will get the nod for ASU. Williams has great stuff but he's been a bit of a disappointment due to his up and down year. He's allowed opponents to hit him at a pretty solid .287 clip, allowing 116 hits in 103.2 innings of work. Williams is labeled as a guy who likes to pound the zone, evidenced by his low walk total of 23. This should bode well for the very aggressive swinging Lobos, who come in hitting .336 as a team and lead the nation in runs scored per game (8.4), doubles (146) and OBP (.424). According to Aaron Fitt, Goodwin Field is known to be hitter-friendly if the conditions are right, and the warm and dry weather this weekend should play right into the Lobos hands. New Mexico will run out Josh Walker (11-0, 3.91), who deceives hitters with his delivery and low three-quarters armslot. Ever since crazy ass Murphy left ASU, the program has gradually turned from a program know for hitting to one known for its pitching and defense. But that doesn't mean ASU can't swing it this year. Michael Benjamin (.349, 8 HR, 44 RBI) and Kasey Coffman (.335, 7 HR, 43 RBI) help carry the offensive load for the Sun Devils. Tough to go over 15.5 runs here (by far the highest total on the board) as that seems about right to me. Thinking the value is with the Lobos at that price, and hopefully they make Goodwin Field play small. Call it 8-7 Lobos in what should be one of the more entertaining games of the wekeend.
773 Louisville to win Louisville Region -145 Talent gap between Louisville and the other three teams is awfully significant. Price dropped from 175 to 145 this morning, and I bit.
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