Colle.ge Football - Lines are getting sharper . Are you prepared for it ?

[WISEGUY]

In a previous thread, I talked about this issue , and I thought I'd bring it up for discussion on this forum.

I spent a great deal of time researching and analyzing Bill Connelly's accuracy and probabilities for his 2016 writeups and projections .
I wanted to compare results with my efforts solely as a point of reference, in advance of my self assessment of 2016 accuracy data.

I found this a very valuable exercise and I'm glad I took the time to do this. Hopefully by taking the time to analyze my performance over
the past year , I 'll continue to see improvement in my results and be able to keep up with the Bookmakers and be more profitable in 2017.

I highly recommend that those on this forum who uses anyone's data as their sole capping strategy to take the time to establish the accuracy
of that data and wager accordingly based on that accuracy.





GLTA

 

[cubsker]

too many people giving away valuable info

 

[WISEGUY]

too many people giving away valuable info

Fixed it. Thanks for your comment. I appreciate it.

:shake2:

 

[RetroVK]

"No, I am not prepared for it".

It's too hard.

 

[Alan Tongue]

It's dynamic. Any edge you have diminishes over time, no one is smart enough to have an edge that no one else does. The hard part is being ahead of the curve. I know guys that killed it in a sport for 3-4 years, now can't win because they are doing the same thing and the market caught up to them.

 

[RetroVK]

It's dynamic. Any edge you have diminishes over time, no one is smart enough to have an edge that no one else does. The hard part is being ahead of the curve. I know guys that killed it in a sport for 3-4 years, now can't win because they are doing the same thing and the market caught up to them.

Maybe other people develop a model of some kind that makes it easy for them but if you are putting in the hard work, it is hard to have a winning % to profit and be able to bet enough to make it worth it. Some teams might be able to make that work, or people who do it full time and find ways around limits, or entrance into markets most don't have access to, or are able to manipulate line movement, etc. etc. but for you average guy just trying to do a traditional handicap of the sport and make good money at it ... just have to say good luck. Because even when you win, you will look at your hourly wage for having done it and realize that you could have made more dedicating yourself to other forms of gambling, let alone other forms of making money. Now, if you enjoy the process of trying to beat the book, that is something else. Fun hobby to make extra money. But if anyone thinks that anyone but a very few are getting rich off of sports gambling (we don't even have the middle, side, scalp, RL traps, correlated parlays, wong opportunities anymore) they are wrong, and a good portion of those people who have gotten rich, got there by short term luck or were already rich to begin with. The stale parlay and teaser cards are what some of these guys have been doing lately but that won't last. And the books and the market are just way better now. There are too many people who know too much, the books make less mistakes than they used to or at least where they are making the mistakes the most the limits are small, .... hell of a combo of better starting numbers and smarter market. Reduces the edge. Then if you lose ANY of your work ethic, you lose edge. Not long before there is nothing but perceived edge when none really exists. Throw in any lack of speedy adaptability and you are really in trouble.

It is really tough to win consistently.

 

[Alan Tongue]

nope, its right

 

[Alan Tongue]

I said neither

 

[Lareux]

Well I guess we'll just disagree on this. I believe there are some bettors that have a distinct advantage over most who wager , and they gain that advantage because
they generally take this more seriously than casual bettors and work to improve their results. This refutes your statement in red.

Secondly , I initiated this thread to address your statement in green. If you monitor your results and modify your capping strategy accordingly , it will be much more
difficult for the " Market " to catch up with you. Any edge will diminish over time if you do not constantly strive to improve. That was the whole point of this thread.

This will be my last discussion on this subject. Good Luck to you :cheers3:

:shake2:

What do you disagree on though? You're saying the same thing he is as far as an edge diminishing over time...he simply said "they are doing the same thing" which would indicate they haven't constantly improved as you stated.

As far as the part you put in red...no one has an edge that no one else has. You said some have "a distinct advantage over MOST who wager," which does not, at all, contradict what he said. Most and all are not the same thing. What you said does not refute anything that he said in the least bit.

 

[M.W.]

As far as the part you put in red...no one has an edge that no one else has. You said some have "a distinct advantage over MOST who wager," which does not, at all, contradict what he said.

This is something that can't be proven either way. Over the years, I've had a variety of edges that, as far as I know, no one else had or has. But I can't know that for sure.

 

[Lareux]

I disagree with the statement that " No one is smart enough to have an edge that no one else has . If all are gifted with the same skills , then most are
not smart enough to continue to develop them.If you continue to develop them , you are smart enough to have an edge that no one else has.

With the internet, and upwards of 8 billion people in the world, it's tough to see anyone having any edge that no one else has. It's not a knock, it's just fucking reality.

 

[RetroVK]

I read something a little bit different in what he is saying. He is saying, in part at least I think, that even the originator of a sustainable edge cannot be the sole proprietor of that edge for very long and as more and more people become aware of the edge, the market adjusts to the edge and it diminishes away and you will need to find a new edge (Stay ahead of the curve*).

I don't think he is saying that no one can beat the sportsbook, he is saying edges have a half-life (of a sort).

It isn't college football but think about the people who were ahead of the curve using kenpom. Easy money. Not so much anymore.

NFL wongs - books took the price away.

Correlated parlays mostly gone.

Scalping/middling all but gone with movement on air now. Exchanges gone. etc.

Certain situational edges that people used for years (B2B stuff for instance) everyone knows now. It gets factored in very quickly.

Injury value bettors who know way more than market about who is playing .. harder now because the information is more widely available.

And on and on and on ...

All those scenarios above were edges where you could beat the book and now if you can beat the book at any of those edges, you are doing it at a fraction of what you could before.

I think that is all Alan is saying and if not, he can correct me.

As I read his comment, he is absolutely right.

That doesn't mean Wiseguy cannot maintain any edge he has by adapting, analyzing what he is doing and improving upon it ... very important for any line originator to make better numbers than market does. He isn't saying you cannot win .. he is saying you need to be ahead of the curve to win. No edge lasts forever and if it does, it won't be the same level of edge.

Anyway, I appreciate this thread because I need to do exactly what you are doing Wise and I need to do it with a great amount of self-honesty.

 

[RetroVK]

It's stale parlay/teaser cards now. But that won't last either.

 

[Alan Tongue]

what kyle said :shake2:

 

[M.W.]

This requires accuracy and consistency from
your capping method . You must also have complete confidence that you are capping correctly.

You need more than confidence. You need justified confidence; i.e., you need to be right about your advantage, and that's a lot easier in blackjack than in football.

 

[RetroVK]

You need more than confidence. You need justified confidence; i.e., you need to be right about your advantage, and that's a lot easier in blackjack than in football.

You can also get in more hands of bj in a sitting than you get wagers in on cfb in a lifetime

The ONLY reason I truly think i have an edge is because the line moves towards my numbers. Career results are goos but i consider them relatively meaningless as a measure for whether i had a true edge. I xannot honestly say i am 100% confident i have played with an edge vs just getting lucky.

 

[Carolina Guy]

Until you can cap turnovers (we know that will never happen), you might as well bet against yourself. There's where the real money is.

Good discussion in here, though. Keep trying to fight the good fight, Wiseguy.