TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
Coaching is one of my main factors in handicapping. One of the few ways the books are usually behind the bettors is in evaluating—or in many cases even paying attention to—coaching changes.
If you watch this closely you can sometimes win so much money it is like stealing. My favorite example is Gus Malzahn. The books paid no attention to this guy when he left high school to become an assistant at Arkansas. All he did was bring the Wildcat back to football, both college and NFL.
Nutt fired him and Tulsa hired him as OC and became the highest scoring team in the country and went 9-3 ATS. Then he went to Auburn as OC and they won the national title and went 10-4 ATS. He didn’t get along with Chizik so he left for Arkansas State. Arkansas State went 9-3 ATS, Auburn collapsed.
They fired Chizik, brought Malzahn back as HC. Sports books and touts were so clueless they thought—despite all the proof to the contrary—the guy couldn’t coach so I actually got extra points all year. Auburn went 12-2 ATS.
The most discussed coaching change this year is Harbaugh to Michigan. This is one the books and touts ARE watching. Harbaugh will make Michigan a powerhouse again, but I doubt you will win much money with him because the books believe the same thing. I believe they will give Harbaugh too much respect to make any easy money on his games.
I see three situations this year where I might get extra value. Not as much as I did with Malzahn, but enough to win some money:
1. Chad Morris to SMU. He is another guy who came from Texas high school to college and was hired by Todd Graham (also direct from Texas high school to college) to replace Malzahn at Tulsa, was so successful he became the highest paid assistant in college football as OC at Clemson. The one drawback is that SMU has so little talent, but I think I’ll find value in Morris as the season goes on.
2. Muchamp to Auburn as DC. If the books pay less attention than they should to changes at head coach, they pay no attention to assistants. A guy like Muschamp failed as a head coach, but has been dynamite as an assistant. He will make big improvements to a weak Auburn defense.
3. Chavis from DC at LSU to DC at Texas A&M. Chavis has been building great defenses in the SEC for more than 20 years and his move will improve the aTm defense which was almost non-existent the last few years. It may hurt LSU as well.
Those are the ones where I see hidden value for now. Here is how I see some of the other big changes:
Riley to Nebraska. Riley is getting a lot of love based on his performance at Oregon State. I won on him now and then at Oregon State, but I was not a fan of his because his team led the conference—and sometimes the nation—almost every year in penalties and turnovers. I don’t see any hidden value.
Chryst to Wisconsin. Not impressed so far with Chryst, but Pitt wasn’t that great a job (he was 4[SUP]th[/SUP] HC in 3 years) so he may work out. I don’t see any hidden value.
Anderson to Oregon State. I like Andersen and he has proved he can win at a program like Oregon State, but I don’t see hidden value.
Montgomery to Tulsa. He has been with Briles since Briles went directly from high school to head coach at Houston. Briles had great offenses at every stop and Montgomery was OC for many of them. Problem is, he has never been a head coach at any level and Blankenship let the talent level slip at Tulsa. Might be hidden value, but it’s a guess right now.
McElwain to Florida. McElwain proved he can build a program and do it fast at Colo St. It’s a different story in the SEC. Florida has a ton more talent than CSU did when he arrived there, but it’s murderer’s row in the SEC. I think he—like Harbaugh—is sure to bring Florida back, but the books love Florida and it is hard to find value with a new coach.
Lincoln Riley to Oklahoma as OC. Riley is a Mike Leach guy, had great offenses at E Carolina and I expect him to do well at OU. But offense was not OU’s problem. In fact they scored more over the last five years than Riley did at E Carolina. This coaching change was part of Bob Stoops housecleaning to keep from having to fire his half wit brother—who produced one of the worst defenses in Oklahoma history—by firing or changing assignments of almost every coach on the staff. I see no hidden value.
And there is the always reliable proposition that first time head coaches lose their first game--and first road game--at close to a 60% rate ATS every year. Even an experience coach moving to a new job is below 50% ATS in their first game at a new school. Part of that is because the talent level is almost always low when a school changes coaches, but part of it is that it is so difficult to get 85 players, 20 or so coaches and GA's, and another 30 or so trainers and support staff to operate efficiently in their first attempt. Doing it on the road just adds another level of difficulty.
I’m always looking for information so if anyone has any coaching info—or corrections—to add, feel free.
If you watch this closely you can sometimes win so much money it is like stealing. My favorite example is Gus Malzahn. The books paid no attention to this guy when he left high school to become an assistant at Arkansas. All he did was bring the Wildcat back to football, both college and NFL.
Nutt fired him and Tulsa hired him as OC and became the highest scoring team in the country and went 9-3 ATS. Then he went to Auburn as OC and they won the national title and went 10-4 ATS. He didn’t get along with Chizik so he left for Arkansas State. Arkansas State went 9-3 ATS, Auburn collapsed.
They fired Chizik, brought Malzahn back as HC. Sports books and touts were so clueless they thought—despite all the proof to the contrary—the guy couldn’t coach so I actually got extra points all year. Auburn went 12-2 ATS.
The most discussed coaching change this year is Harbaugh to Michigan. This is one the books and touts ARE watching. Harbaugh will make Michigan a powerhouse again, but I doubt you will win much money with him because the books believe the same thing. I believe they will give Harbaugh too much respect to make any easy money on his games.
I see three situations this year where I might get extra value. Not as much as I did with Malzahn, but enough to win some money:
1. Chad Morris to SMU. He is another guy who came from Texas high school to college and was hired by Todd Graham (also direct from Texas high school to college) to replace Malzahn at Tulsa, was so successful he became the highest paid assistant in college football as OC at Clemson. The one drawback is that SMU has so little talent, but I think I’ll find value in Morris as the season goes on.
2. Muchamp to Auburn as DC. If the books pay less attention than they should to changes at head coach, they pay no attention to assistants. A guy like Muschamp failed as a head coach, but has been dynamite as an assistant. He will make big improvements to a weak Auburn defense.
3. Chavis from DC at LSU to DC at Texas A&M. Chavis has been building great defenses in the SEC for more than 20 years and his move will improve the aTm defense which was almost non-existent the last few years. It may hurt LSU as well.
Those are the ones where I see hidden value for now. Here is how I see some of the other big changes:
Riley to Nebraska. Riley is getting a lot of love based on his performance at Oregon State. I won on him now and then at Oregon State, but I was not a fan of his because his team led the conference—and sometimes the nation—almost every year in penalties and turnovers. I don’t see any hidden value.
Chryst to Wisconsin. Not impressed so far with Chryst, but Pitt wasn’t that great a job (he was 4[SUP]th[/SUP] HC in 3 years) so he may work out. I don’t see any hidden value.
Anderson to Oregon State. I like Andersen and he has proved he can win at a program like Oregon State, but I don’t see hidden value.
Montgomery to Tulsa. He has been with Briles since Briles went directly from high school to head coach at Houston. Briles had great offenses at every stop and Montgomery was OC for many of them. Problem is, he has never been a head coach at any level and Blankenship let the talent level slip at Tulsa. Might be hidden value, but it’s a guess right now.
McElwain to Florida. McElwain proved he can build a program and do it fast at Colo St. It’s a different story in the SEC. Florida has a ton more talent than CSU did when he arrived there, but it’s murderer’s row in the SEC. I think he—like Harbaugh—is sure to bring Florida back, but the books love Florida and it is hard to find value with a new coach.
Lincoln Riley to Oklahoma as OC. Riley is a Mike Leach guy, had great offenses at E Carolina and I expect him to do well at OU. But offense was not OU’s problem. In fact they scored more over the last five years than Riley did at E Carolina. This coaching change was part of Bob Stoops housecleaning to keep from having to fire his half wit brother—who produced one of the worst defenses in Oklahoma history—by firing or changing assignments of almost every coach on the staff. I see no hidden value.
And there is the always reliable proposition that first time head coaches lose their first game--and first road game--at close to a 60% rate ATS every year. Even an experience coach moving to a new job is below 50% ATS in their first game at a new school. Part of that is because the talent level is almost always low when a school changes coaches, but part of it is that it is so difficult to get 85 players, 20 or so coaches and GA's, and another 30 or so trainers and support staff to operate efficiently in their first attempt. Doing it on the road just adds another level of difficulty.
I’m always looking for information so if anyone has any coaching info—or corrections—to add, feel free.
