Cleveland/Milwaukee Total

[BetCrimes1984]

Under 204.5

- all my stats based on opening lines & regulation scores, unless otherwise noted


Cleveland

- is U/O 7-2-1 at an average of 186.3 points @home with Larry Hughes in their lineup, as opposed to U/O 2-3 at an average of 188.8 points @home without him present, this season.

- is U/O 4-0 at an average of 182.2 points in their last 4 home games, as opposed to U/O 3-1 at an average of 191.5 points in their last 4 road games, vs Milwaukee.



Milwaukee

- is U/O 4-3 at an average of 196.8 points in ATS losses, as opposed to U/O 0-10 at an average of 218.7 points in ATS wins, on the road this season.

- During the Buck's present winning streak, Andrew Bogut is shooting 67.8% from the floor while averaging 15.3 pts per game. Last season vs CLE, he shot 65.2% in home games, while only shooting 36.8% in road games.
He comes into this game having shot above 63.0% in his last 3 straight, for only the 2nd time this season - the last time he did so, he then played a road game and scored 6 points on 20.0% shooting.



Not a lot of stats for this one, but what I have highlighted I think is key for this game. CLE's overall record this season is only 33.3% to Overs, which hides the fact that with Hughes present its only 23.5% Overs. So MIL is meeting a heavily Under biased team, the kind of situation that is ripe to end their present, rather large, Over run. Playing their 3rd road game in 4 nights straight of Xmas, against a foe they've recently played all but every contest to Under with, dealing with a total thats climbed 2 points, and having one of their key figures to this present roll of theres in a clear personal let down spot, I'll take a total over 200 points for a small bet.

 

[esco]

get em Crimes!

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

I think we can both agree if this game stays under then cleveland will cover. Which sucks for me because I have Millw!!!! Well, we will see. GL, betcrimes.

 

[texholdm]

BC,

I know nothing is guaranteed, but I LIKE THIS UNDER PLAY.

GL

 

[gpcyan3]

I'm listening to the pregame on the radio and Mike Brown is preaching defense tonight for my boys...

GL with your play.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

esco, tex - thanks & GL to you both tonight:cheers:

BeLIEve - I'll give enough credit to the way the Bucks are playing and say despite my posted stats, I can see this being their first road cover this season to go under. That 10-0 figure wont to last to-zero forever. BOL tonight:shake:

gpcyan - I think some people maybe looking at CLE's 224 total in Jersey recently and giving it too much weight, vs their other recent totals. That Jersey game was on the road, this one isnt.

 

[rod_steel]

Good to see you on this as well BC 'an_horse'

Btw any thoughts on ODI 2 tomorrow? I know Kiwis are playing terrible at the moment, but jesus $2.55 for them at home against Sri Lanka, value alone I'm tempted to hit that.

Post some thoughts on that if possible in the other forum if you have the time :cheers:

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Rod, sure. TAB has NZL at 3.30 (ok, was looking at the series price. Doh).

Fast start but it looks like this has a blowout brewing, and blowouts are generally good for Unders.

 

[JPicks]

BC. If you have enough time during half could you provide an update as you see the game going. Looking to play the 2nd half under, but I'd like to know your thoughts. Thanks man.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

JP - just saw your post/the latest (halftime) score.

Gotta love the fact that CLE have a 20 point lead, given what the stats say for MIL losing vs winning ATS on the road re: their totals. My lean would be Under the 2nd half (dunno the number).

This, I would expect, would mirror the SAS-UTH game - dead as a contest at the half (even more so here), so there the 2nd half totaled 88 to the 1st's 101. MIL have finally had their let down game, and I see no reason why they'd be interested in pouring energy into a dead contest. While CLE have no reason to run up the a score vs a foe who has surrendered - its that basic dynamic which makes blowouts into Unders. I see no reason why it shouldnt manifest here.

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I also noticed a couple of key periods in the game wher MIL made a push to get back into it, but CLE matched them point for point.

4.13 of this game (17.5%) has produced 29 points = 330.1 game pace

19.47 (82.5%) has produced the other 71 points = 172.2 game pace

So the real overall pace of this game has been well Under, and only those periods where MIL have pushed to narrow the gap, have really kept the Over alive. One questions whether that attempt on their part to seriously try and peg back a 20 pt deficit will exist in the 2nd half, as it has for those short sequences in the 1st.

 

[texholdm]

BC,

The TOTAL for Sac/Clipp has dropped from 196.5 to 195. Do you still have a play for this game. Can't wait for your POST.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

tex, I'm still working on that. I guess you're coming from the view point of wanting to get the best possible line, but I still have the option of 196.5 or 195.5 (at obviously better odds) if I do go ahead and play it, so from that pov I dont feel rushed. Artest playing in this game is a key issue for me, and I havent found anything yet confirming or not his status. So it'll be a close to gametime bet if I do decide to play it.

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btw, I like how all these FTs are coming out of nowhere for MIL. As many in 4 mins of the 3rd period as in all the 1st half. WTF?

 

[texholdm]

Waiting patiently as PATIENCE IS A VIRTUE. I truly agree with your comments regarding the Mil/Cle game.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

How does 1 team get 19 FT attempts in 1 period, when they're down 20 pts to start it?

Don't like the fact they ate into the Cav's lead to reduce it to single digits in the 3rd. That said, it took all those FTs to enable them to do it - let see them get another 19 this period....

 

[texholdm]

This game is going to be "Close". However, I think both TEAMS will start playing DEFENSE and eliminate the "Thoroughbred Race". I like our chances.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

I'd like to thank the refs for MIL's 19 FTs in 1 period (they made it a contest, which killed the blowout aspect), and Donyell Marshall for choosing this game to be the one in which he hit more than 3 3-pointers for the first time this season.

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Los Angeles/Sacramento Total

Under 196.5

- all my stats based on opening lines & regulation scores, unless otherwise noted


Los Angeles

- is U/O 4-1 at an average of 189.2 points with Cassell absent this season.

- is U/O 8-3 at an average of 190.0 points at home, as opposed to
U/O 4-6 at an average of 192.1 points on the road, vs Western teams other than Phoenix, this season.


Sacramento

- is U/O 9-6 at an average of 196.2 points w/Millar & Artest playing, as opposed to U/O 3-8 at an average of 203.7 points when either one of them isnt playing, this season.

- is U/O 2-3 at an average of 215.8 points vs DEN/GDS/PHX/WAS/MIL this season, as opposed to U/O 7-3 at an average of 186.5 points vs all other opponents, when Millar & Artest both play.


LA looks to be rounding back into some form, and successful home efforts for them have largely spelt Unders this season and last. Small bet since I've no desire to chase the earlier result.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

If I say so myself, a little bit of justice for the bullshit from the 1st game.
1-1 day, up an amazing 23$, but I'll take it.

Bad luck to those who had 195.0

 

[texholdm]

BC,

I doubled up after that BULLSHIT with MIL/CLE game. I got it back and then some @ UNDER of CLIP/QUEENS. That was another close one as I had my line @ 196. Whew, my Hemorrhoids is acting up again on the last 20 sec. Nevertheless, what a way to end the night cap.

Thank you!