Clemson +1200 to win it all.

C-MAN

C-MAN

Pretty much a regular
I'm really thinking about putting a few bucks on this future. I'm not sure they have what it takes to win it all but they sure look pretty solid and the rest of their regular season sets up pretty favorably. Two biggest tests remaining are Florida State at home and at South Carolina. Funny thing is that when I match up the other top teams in my head against Ohio State I think Clemson may have the best chance to knock them off. Dabo has pulled off a few big upsets in his tenure and, as someone else mentioned a couple weeks ago, it sure seems like he sold his soul to the devil this year. Thoughts? Anybody else think this presents some value?
 
I certainly think it has value seeing that as of right now, they have the clearest path to the playoffs, though I don't think they can afford a loss like some of the other competitors. If Clemson does make the playoff, got to think the odds won't be as high as 12-1 to win
 
I'm not sure whom I'd favor against Clemson besides Alabama, maybe Baylor even with the FR QB. Clemson beat Ohio State two years ago when both schools had weaker teams, but that still leaves me pretty optimistic about that match up. Wasn't really impressed with TCU last night. I would take Clemson in a pick-em against LSU.
 
I line up every team against each other and I have Clemson #1 if you give some deduction to Baylor for the QB loss. Without the QB loss it would clearly be Baylor, then Clemson. So, yeah, good value!
 
Some interesting responses.

Playoff games in the final four are much different then conference championship games. Its one of the reasons that conference winners so often fail to cover as favorites. Teams repeating are usually favored over new arrivals.

If you are thinking Clemson can compete with the final four, I would first see if they can win games by large margins against top teams that don't lose because of turnovers.
IMO, Clemson is not in the category with Ohio State, or Michigan State. Even a team like Stanford would give them all kinds of trouble and Stanford would be the favorite INO>

Regardless of what I think, GL on your bet. :shake:
 
I do not disagree with you about Stanford and Mich St, just don't think Clemson will have to face either one of them.
 
They are the most complete team in the nation as it stands as of today, IMO. Can't fault you for playing that price at all.
 
The Capping Genius said:
Some interesting responses.

Playoff games in the final four are much different then conference championship games. Its one of the reasons that conference winners so often fail to cover as favorites. Teams repeating are usually favored over new arrivals.
Click to expand...

Last year was the first year of the 4 team playoff, so I'm wondering how this makes any sense. "Teams repeating" hasn't even come into play yet to know if they will be, or are, favored over "new arrivals."

If you're referring to conference championship games, then your statement of "playoff games in the final four are much different..." would come into play and, again, we wouldn't have any data to make that a true statement. Not to mention, if your contention is true that they are different, anything you've said about conference championship games wouldn't matter in the least, since you're saying they are much different than those games.
 
If you got that number you made a good bet.

I think there are two things that have gotten Clemson past what they used to be, a team that might dazzle one week then not show up the next, or maybe the next two or three.

One is the arrival of Venables. He has improved the toughness of the defense and when a defense gets tougher the whole team gets tougher. Plus, he is one of the great recruiters in the country. No surprise that recruiting on the defensive side slumped when he left Oklahoma and improved at Clemson.

The other is Watson. The rest of the country does yet realize how great this kid is. How much pure talent he has. And he is still getting better and will continue to as the season goes on.

I'd take him over any QB in the country. Having the best QB in any given game is worth a lot and Clemson will have the best no matter who they play in the playoff.

I'm going to call around and see if I can find that number and if I can I'll bet it.
 
Tahoe - it was +1200 when I took it all the way until this weekend - after Clemson beat NC State and came out ranked number one in the playoff rankings it dropped to +500. It's going to drop significantly again after this weekend if they beat Florida State. Problem is if they lose to Florida State they may very well be left out.
 
C-MAN said:
Thanks for the responses. Just played 150-1800. Will see what happens.
Click to expand...


Ok guys, do I hedge with Bama ML? I can guarantee picking up a few bucks if I do. I think the spread is 1-2 pts higher than I would have made it, but would lean Clemson plus the points. Thoughts welcome.
 
I would for sure but I know you'll get contrasting advice. I just don't see them beating Bama & any profit is good profit.
 
I wouldn't hedge on a bet like you made unless you really hate the matchup. You got a great number and tied up your $ for 2 months. Why water down your odds now?

I'd love to have the opportunity for Clemson ml at +1200 right now. Just my $.02. Great wager.
 
dont hedge with bama ML bro, win or lose, you cant hedge that

just think if your book offered you +1200 on clemson against bama SU for Jan 11th game, while the rest of the country gets +200
 
In my opinion, here are the questions you need to answer when making this decision:

- Has your financial situation changed enough in the past two months to the point where a win or a loss would greatly impact your quality of life? If yes, consider a hedge.

- Theoretically, knowing what you do now, if they play Bama 100 times do you think they win 6 or more times? If yes, hedge wouldn't be the way I'd go. The implied probability of a +1800 ML win is roughly 5.25% so that's where I got the number 6. Conversely, the best ML price I see on Bama is -255, which carries an implied win probability of 71%. Do you think Bama wins 72 of 100? If yes, consider a play on Bama as it will be an independent wager and one with a positive expected value (+EV).

I'm not a mathematician but these are the questions I would answer before making a decision.
 
Thx for input guys. I'm going to let it roll and add Clem +7. Since I like the dog in the game I would have probably added a small ML bet. Essentially I have my small ML bet at much greater odds than I would otherwise have gotten.
 
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