CKR's First Round World Cup...

It was awesome to watch that win at cafe de Paris in nosara. Such great energy. I will try to post a pic after their goal. Glad you bet it. It looks like we will be here through the 1st game of next round. I love this place. Keep coming back. Today was epic.
 
Good shit eh bro?

I woke up at 509 am, worked out in the gym (with three fucking donns i must say, which pushed me to go a bit harder), then hit the pool from 630-710 and left here around 8 to hit "the spot" by around 9 with the traffic. I don't remember getting home although i know France was up 132-0 when i left. Nap in the bag, now time to go out!

Before I do (and search for some easy panty droppings).....

(gulp) waiting on Iran +2.5; nothing yet.

Love Bosnia to anally violate Nigeria.

Lean Ghana at this price; will look for the +1.5 -107 ish that exists now tomorrow...

(shake)

time to get hammered for the second time today, while perusing the puss for the first, hahaha

:cheers:
 
thanks braves, people basically called me every name in the book for suggesting they might be able to get out of their group. But nothing has changed; great matchups for them in all 3 games. Uruguay old and tired and their speed always puts them in a spot where they can beat the UEFA teams. Nothing would surprise me (3-0 or 0-3) against England but those types of games are auto OVER bets...
 
you won't believe this but the second girl i didn't even plug, did sleep with her in the same bed, she was mumbling some shit about money, i decided to be nice and not give her the boot at 1 am so she stayed here, must say first time i slept in a bed with a chick in awhile and she was a good sleeper, meaning she did not bother me in my sleep lmao

Lean Iran still in the first game, prolly should get my head checked. Nothing bet as of yet...
 
Ghana +1.5 -110 to win 2500. Price too high, these guys outplayed the gringos the other night and their backs are against the wall. I expect a supreme effort and can see them leading at some point early. No way can the line be higher than 1 goal.

Still kicking myself about passing on Iran, good credible effort on defense they gave
 
Bosnia +155 first half - 2k to win 3100

Bosnia -115 game - 3450 to win 3k

Pretty simple, I think they are the best team in the group especially after what I saw this morning with the Argentines. Still not sold on Nigeria at all.
 
I had the same bets in the Ghana game. Really believe that they had every shot to win it. The best part about it, is that they were +925, in a game that I capped as Germany -200. The overlays in the WC have been out of control. I have never hit so many 5 to 1 single game bets (Chile and CR).

I'm Bosnia as well, and mighty pissed at the bullshit that went down in 1st half.

Good luck.
 
thanks smh, GL going forward.

Lean USA tomorrow but price gone, pass.

Lean Algeria as well but made close to number, pass.

Lean Red Commies and the goalie to rebound but you're not stealing anything on either side of that at Belgium -1/2 flat ish...

El Paso all the way around for me tomorrow, GL...
 
When two teams are playing for nothing (or for third place), I almost always will look to back OVER. If Spain goes to a younger more aggressive attack as I expect today, goals should flow. The Soccerroos have shown they are not incapable of fighting against these teams, so look for at least one from them if not 2.

The play: Spain/Aussie OVER 3 -125 - 2777 to win 2222

Croatia +190 - risking 1500 to win 2800 or so after commission. Only reason for not going much bigger is the CONCACAF success, relative to UEFA's, in this event. But I get the much better midfielders and the much better team in a game they must win to progress, and as a slight underdog. Two pieces. Off to go watch the Dutch/Chile game. Cheers and GL to us all.

:cheers:
 
if I would have been betting this tournament with my heart and not my head i would be up a bundle of keesh (see Holland, Costa Rica, USA, the three teams I root for most, all of which i thought would do reasonably well compared to expectations).

Instead, stuck 5 figs counting live and must persevere after the beaners stuck it in me again ayer.

Today lean Costa Rica but can't realistically bet them even at this price with a somewhat depleted side. Will need to see the Group C lineups before I get involved in those games later, Japan game could be an open affair and OVER 2.5 would be good but the game has steamed up to 2.75 so almost for sure passing, and I give the Greeks a good shot if they would go back to what got them past Romania in the playoff and get out of that 2004 Euro shell.

The one early game I liked is Italy against Uruguay, but after seeing UEFA teams continually shit the bed against the CONCACAF and CONMEBOL sides in this event, I'll lay off of that and just play a DRAW small. The greasies only need a draw to advance, and though Uruguay has enough talent up front to pip one through, Italy could be quite lethal on the counter. Just for fun...

The play: Italy/Uruguay DRAW +265 - 700 to win 1855
 
tough loss there, rex--everyone loosing their mind about the suarez bite--lost in that madness noone is really talking about the straight red card shown to marchisio. personally i thought that call was the worst of the tourney so far (bypassing the penalty awarded to brazil in opening match vs croatia). that call pretty much castrated the azzuri--especially when combined with the tough but correct call frendelli made in subbing out balotelli at halftime so his team wouldn't have to play with 10 men. after going down to ten men before the hour mark frendelli then had no choice but to make his substitutes accordingly, replacing the midfielder lost with the red card with another midfielder and then cassano for immobile-who looked lost out there, especially playing a man down.

frendelli suffered what many a gambler has over the years--u can pull all the right strings tactically and stragically and still end up on the wrong side.
fifa now suffers as uruguay will surely play the rest of the tourney without suarez(which will prolly amount to 1 game against columbia if the way uruguay played without suarez in game 1 vs the ticos is any indication)--if it were me i would give him a full 4 year fifa ban, but we are talking about fifa here--these guys make the nba and nfl look like the most fair and honest governing body on the planet.
 
--both uruguay and italy had uber-talented forwards capable of undaunted stupidity at any moment that would disgrace and embarrass their country. frendelli saw this and removed his volitale superstar at the half, needing a goal suarez was never gonna come out, but still sucks that frendelli resigned after a game like this--leaves a bad taste in any unbiased observers mouth, let alone any italian supporters, while uruguayans taste victory and suarez tastes chellini flesh, soon to be replaced by divine retribution.
 
Greece is a nervy type play considering they haven't proven much on offense, but i'll take my shot today saying they get the 3 points and it might well be enough to get out, taking momentum from the match against Japan when playing down a man for 50 mins and getting a result.

The play:Greece ML +310 - 1000 to win 3100

thanks cortez, GL the rest of the stage
 
CollegeKingRex said:
Greece is a nervy type play considering they haven't proven much on offense, but i'll take my shot today saying they get the 3 points and it might well be enough to get out, taking momentum from the match against Japan when playing down a man for 50 mins and getting a result.

The play:Greece ML +310 - 1000 to win 3100

thanks cortez, GL the rest of the stage
Click to expand...
:goal:
 
great win!! had it all the way--definetly looked the more dangerous side--even with a couple of early injuries including the keeper--good new for your ticos too!
 
Argentina has had trouble scoring goals in this group thus far, even with the 4-3-3 preferred Messi-style. Nigeria just need a draw to progress, so wouldn't expect anything too aggressive here.

The play: Argentina UNDER 2.75 -102 to win 1500
 
Rexy,

thoughts on CR vs The Greeks Sun?
I lean CR
I'm just concerned The Greeks may be gaining some Mo.........
 
lmao, good work on that one, rexy.

Onto Thursday's final four group stage matches, 45-48. Cup will be three-fourths over at this point, hard to believe considering we've only played two weeks and there is more than that remaining, but the breaks and lack of volume make each game much more anticipated from here on out. I'll start a separate thread and be a bit more analytical with most games in the knockout round, as I'll have a bit more time to look at them all.

They can say what they want to about not colluding for a draw, I can give you reasons beyond a draw why the US is the right side tomorrow against a superior Germany side. First, they are teeming with confidence after a superb effort in Manaus the other night. Second, the German/Americans will be sky-high to get a result and will figure to give a little more than they're letting on here. Could be ripe for a letdown in the Round of 16, as silly as that is to say, but this game will empty the emotional tanks after they are coming back from the jungle and playing with 27 hours less rest than the Germans. And third, it would not be the end of the world if Germany were to lose a close one, as it would put them in the favorable bottom bracket rather than having to potentially meet a CONMEBOL team in the semis after a game against France in the quarters. The easier route would seem to go through a Belgium/Argentina route to the semis. But who knows what will happen once the game starts. Only thing I'm sure of is that the heat shouldn't bother the US like it might the Euro-based side that will be playing its 3rd game in 11 days near the beach.

The play: United States +1 -105 to win 2000.

I am at a loss for where they could get this line for Ghana/Portugal. Anyone who has watched the first 180 minutes of each team's tournament to this point knows that the African side is superior. One worry is that they're missing the stud midfielder who controlled things against the gringos and who was by and large the best player on the pitch for either side when they played Germany. Still, many more negatives for the Portugese, even though they're getting Pepe back. Cristiano Ronaldo admitted as much when it comes to the price when speaking to the media Wednesday, saying "We're probably just an average team. I'd be lying if I said we were a top team. Recently I haven't been how I'd hoped."

It's been a long season for the best player in the world, who has a banged up left knee that is getting exacerbated by playing in these games following an unusually long and arduous club season at Real Madrid that saw the UEFA Champions League winners secure that trophy and compete for La Liga and Copa Del Rey crowns. James Appiah said "I've always believe that the best way to defend is to attack" after the Germany game. With the Portugese at a big goal differential, they need to win by multiple goals to even have a sniff of progression despite what happens in Recife. It would be real easy for the Portugese to lay down, and I half-expect it, especially if they concede early. OVER looks good, but Ghana on all sides seems even better, even without Munteri, and especially because the players physically received their bonus money today.

The play: Ghana +1/2 -115 to win 1000
Ghana ML +245 risking 1000

In the late games, tough to make out of what will happen with Belgium, who have had multiple players go on record as saying that they don't want to play Germany in the round of 16. The likelihood of that happening is +1079 says pinny, lmao (only way it happens is with a US win tomorrow, assuming Germany wins the goal differential against Ghana for 2nd)... if that happens, then Belgium could be looked at for tanking. Watching their first two games, I've hardly been impressed. They were outplayed by Russia and Algeria for long stretches of each game, scoring the winning goals in the last 10 and 2 minutes of each game, respectively.

South Korea was lucky to score against the Red Commies, and then watched the defense totally melt down in a 4-2 loss to an Algeria unit that isn't getting anywhere near the proper respect. Witsel and Alderweireld will sit for Belgium and Kompany is banged up and might sit. I expect Sakarea to give a good effort, but their defense is a big step down for Belgium in comparison to what they've seen the last two. Might be worth an OVER look at some point, pass for now.

In the other game, while I respect Fabio Capello, and respect anyone willing to take an entirely domestic-based Russian League side to a World Cup, I also think it's pretty shortsighted for the 2018 hosts, and they will likely pay for it. This Algeria team is no joke. I liked them somewhat coming in, they outplayed Belgium for about 70 minutes on matchday 1, totally controlled the Koreans on matchday 2, and I'm not I would want to play them in the round of 16, regardless of who I am. The Algerians had not won a game since the 1982 World Cup (the year of the infamous West Germany/Austria rig where each team advanced after WG led 1-0 and the teams kicked around the ball at the back of the park and then the goalie banged it into the other half for the last 80 minutes, leading to today's format where the last two group stage matches are played simultaneously to avoid the collusion needed to ensure passage from two sides playing in the last fixture).

The confidence they should take from that win can brim over here. Three of the changes made from the Belgium game all got on the scoresheet from coach Vahid Halilhodzic, who had decided that while being well organized and solid technically, that goals were needed. Capello coached England in 2010, where they were basically rendered irrelevent from the opening whistle in a 0-0 draw. The Red Commies know they will be hosting in 2018, and Capello has an extension through then. He said "This tournament does a great service to us. It helps us to understand the level at which we need to compete."

That's a level that they are not at currently. I predict Algeria outright, and have bet it to try to maximize profit without getting myself too upset if they draw, which is the Desert Foxes' goal for advancement.

Despite how impressed I am with Ghana and how Nigeria has already advanced from Africa, these guys are still the top ranked African side (asterisk obviously with whatever ratings we use to figure this out). The Commies are organized and tough to break down but are lacking any flair and have been taught more not-to-lose at this point than how to win (as evidenced that they haven't led for 1 second here). Slimani can be super effective as a lone striker and will surely start again after his last effort.

The plays: Algeria +260 risking 600
Algeria +1/2 -115 to win 2000

GL fellas!
 
ProV1, I will have some thoughts on all 8 games in the Round of 16 on Friday. Since I'm not working at the moment, I'll have ample time to break them all down. Have done some early work, will do some recon work and post some plays and thoughts after I sober up and wake up Friday....

:shake:
 
agree on Ghana...man I could just see Portugal packing in...almost want to bet an alt line

USA-GER ...I agree with your play, however there are so many mixed emotions. Ze' Germans look the part....will they want to stick it in Klins ass?? Nothing on the D? Will they play nice?

GL...I will wait to wager in the AM
 
Initially was going to back Ghana today, until I read about issues with the team getting paid.

"Manager Paolo Bento is set to line-up a sensible starting lineup against a Ghana team who boycotted one training session because they needed assurance from the President of the country himself that the money was on its way".

http://www.theguardian.com/football...sulley-muntari-kevin-prince-boateng-suspended

Botang and Muntari sent home. Not sure Ghana is going be focused on today's game.
 
...ya wish i knew the ghana news yesterday, although muntari was already out with the yellow card accumulation--my liking ghana is more of a fade portugal anyone--i don't know what it is about that iberian peninsula but those teams (minus spain, except this year and definitely including france except this year, so far) certainly have a track record of having a glass jaw.

...initially i was very fearful of germany--extra rest, altidore out and lack of a true striker, germans trying to teach u.s. a lesson about poaching their good young players, Loewe trying to teach klinsmann a lesson of who is the true mentor, etc. but any american football bettor can tell you--weather, especially rain in large amounts, is the great equalizer---levels the playing field--i can't tell you how many double digit acc teams from the state of florida alone i have seen loose to some 4 win pattsy in monsoonlike conditions over the years--furthermore, the slop that is gonna be the pitch they play in will almost forgive and negate any talk of collusion if its as bad as it is at present time.


anyways, i will take a 2-1 german win and a 2-1 ghana win, shoyuld be some good television
 
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