Christmas Day Spread Play and ML Selection

[Gorgolon Lives]

THE PLAYS: EAGLES +7
EAGLES ML +?

Will be on ML, but waiting on that #. Hitting 7 now. The defense is finally starting to come together at the PERFECT time for Philly. B Dawk and the secondary are stepping up, making plays when needed, and saving the asses of the horrid D-Line. This will be Homo's biggest game of the year, and I don't trust him just yet in a pressure atmosphere. Dallas secondary is vulnerable and Philly WILL put up their fair share. I think this will turn into a shootout, and will come down to Homo vs. the blitz package of the Eagles D. I think Homo's inexperience shows, and the Eagles D prevails. Win or lose, this will be a great game. And I'm excited that it's on 5pm Christmas Day on national tv. These 2 teams WON'T disappoint.

Final Score: Eagles 31 Dallas 28

As for the total, I don't see how anyone can choose the UNDER for this game. Both teams D's are vulnerable...I lean Over, but I'm not a total player.

GL :13_4_10:

 

[ISU74]

I like philly as well.
Also leaning the over given the yards both the D's allow.

Any thoughts on the late game?
Leaning Miami and the Under.

Good luck

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

ISU...

Hate playing games when teams are out of it. I usually limit my plays in week 16 and 17. I still don't trust the JETS on the road. Miami is playing hard as of late, but what's up with the QB situation. What's up with the RB situation? Sammy Morris is a FA after this year...Some guys might be playing for contracts. It's just a bad game. I'd stay away.

 

[ISU74]

I am fading the Jets on the road because their last win was against minnesota who gives up 45,000 passing yards a game. They looked better than they are. Miami will be starting Brown at RB. so who knows.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

ISU, I'll say this about Miami: Miami is 2-8 SU in conference and 1-4 SU in division, yet linesmakers have them chalked vs. a team who is still fighting for the playoffs. Should tell you something...

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

I'll correct myself...Those are ATS #s on Miami, which stands out even more!

 

[ISU74]

Just like the NO/NYG, and the Balt/PITT games. I looks like the wrong team is favored. Both NO and Balt covered the # and won outright.

Betting on Miami does give me a pause..I will do more research later.
Thanks for the input, merry x-mas and good luck to ya!!

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

I'm gonna thank you ISU, for giving me more reason to look into this Mia/NYJ game. Wrong team favored? At first glance, maybe. But...

Over the last 3 years we find that Miami is a remarkable 8-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. They are 2-1 ATS this year.

Also: With the run of dogs going 11-1 today, it makes me leery of Monday's dogs. Philly is a gut play, and I'm sticking with it. But Miami looks solid, now, as I look into it more closely.

 

[Joe Public]

The Jets seem to always play well in Miami. It's weird like that.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Good point, Public. Taking a look, we see the JETS is 5-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons and 4-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons. A remarkable 10-4 against the spread AT MIAMI since 1992!

Yet another reason this game is probably a "PASS" on Monday.

 

[Joe Public]

I've told this story before, but years ago I was in a Vegas sports book and I get to talking with this guy, randomly--these things happen to me when I'm in the book.

Anyway, it was a Saturday night and he says, 'who do you like tomorrow?' So I gave him a play I liked, I wish I remember if it won, but the guy says to me, "Bet the Jets tomorrow, they're going to kill Miami." And I kind of looked at him like, are you f**king high? I look up and the line is like Miami -7. And he says to me, "the Jets own Miami in Miami."

I'm pretty sure I just wrote it off, but sure enough the Jets won by like 14 and now I think of that guy every time I see the Jets win in Miami--which is more often than you'd expect.

More importantly, Go Birds.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Public, I've read some of your Eagles thoughts. Are you from Philly or a big Eagles fan? It seems that way...

 

[Joe Public]

Not from there, but I am a big Birds guy. Birds and Browns. But the first sports team I ever followed from birth is the Birds.

I'm very excited for the game tomorrow. In a weird way, mostly for B-Dawk, that guy's on a mission right now and the way he plays he's not going to have too many more years, so I'd like to see them get this run of three completed.

I worry that if they win tomorrow they'll be a little flat next week and I know they don't have what it takes to win it all this year, but seriously, this would be one of those great moments because as much as anything this team has always been about heart and if they win tomorrow that's what's going to get it done.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

I've asked myself, can THIS team really get back to the dance? And I chuckle and say YES. Simply based on the weakness of the NFC. I think it all depends on their matchups, there's not 1 team in the NFC that I would fear home or away. ANY playoff match-up with Dallas would be scary if they win on XMAS, because it would mean beating the Boys 3 times in 1 year. Ok, Chicago IN Chicago might be tough in January, but is that game out of reach? No way...

 

[Joe Public]

The worst part is they totally could get there. I fear San Diego would destroy them and that Baltimore might very well shut them out, though.

But you're right, it could happen. First off, I think if they lose tomorrow and have to go to Seattle that they win there. Seattle's a mess. But if they win my only fear is the same as yours, Dallas. Three times would be such a huge hurdle.

Sadly, I don't see them getting out of New Orleans, despite how they played there the first time or Chicago--although, Chicago really is starting to look ripe for the picking.

All I want right now, though, is a win tomorrow. Because it'll vindicate the heart guys like Dawk and Westbrook have sank into that team and because it'll drive TO off the ledge.

All right, off to bed for me, I don't want to be up and scare off Santa.

If I don't talk to you before the game, one, Merry Christmas, and two, GO BIRDS.

 

[emkee]

GO BIRDS !!!

Merry Christmas ! I'll have an Eagles win thanks Santa !

GL BeLIEve...

 

[texasfight]

The Eagles are going down. Smoke and mirrors ends tonight. Merry Christmas.