Home Sweet Mahomes: Chiefs Offense Too Explosive For New England's Defense
New England (12-5 SU, 10-7 ATS) at Kansas City (13-4 SU, 10-6-1 ATS)
Saturday, January 20, 6:40 p.m. ET (CBS)
NFL Pick: Chiefs ATS
In the Divisional Round, New England’s defense limited the Chargers’ top-10 offense to 14 points after three quarters and the game was already decided. They harassed Philip Rivers, accruing two sacks and seven quarterback hits, and L.A.’s run game couldn’t get anything going. The question is whether we can expect a similarly solid performance against the Chiefs.
It helps a defense immensely when its team’s offense is dominant. The Patriots’ offense accrued 38 minutes of time of possession, helping to keep the Chargers’ offense out of rhythm by forcing them to spend a lot of time on the sidelines and by keeping its defense fresh. Also, an offense becomes more predictable when it’s behind because it needs to pass and can’t establish the run. The Chargers’ pass-first mentality made them more predictable for New England’s pass rush.
Kansas City’s edge on offense will prevent the Patriots from leading from start to finish and the Chiefs’ offensive balance will make it more unpredictable. Not to mention, flushing Philip Rivers out of the pocket would not have the same effect on Patrick Mahomes. Even if the Patriots’ pass rush is effective, Mahomes is a highlight-reel playmaker who can extend plays with his mobility. When these teams met in Week 6, Mahomes’ passer rating outside the pocket was 106.3, even though he threw three of his four touchdowns inside the pocket. Mahomes throws with pinpoint accuracy, accruing a 66% completion rate, while averaging 8.8 YPA. What helps Mahomes is that he has a number of other playmakers at his disposal—at running back, wide receiver, and tight end.
The loss of Kareem Hunt is no big deal because of Damien Williams. Williams is versatile, averaging 5.1 YPC and seven yards per reception. Against a highly-ranked Indianapolis run defense in the Divisional Round, he accrued 129 rushing yards on 25 carries. With his 4.45 40-speed, he's going to cause problems to a New England linebacking corps that is notoriously slow in pursuit. The Pats rank 22nd in pass defense against opposing running backs. When these teams met in the regular season, Hunt accrued 105 receiving yards.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="de"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Playoff victory got us feelin' like: <a href="https://t.co/a0CqVts1jX">pic.twitter.com/a0CqVts1jX</a></p>— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) <a href=" ">13. Januar 2019</a></blockquote>
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Mahomes’ elusiveness helps explain why KC’s offensive line ranks fifth in adjusted sack rate, eight spots ahead of L.A's. When a play lasts long enough, it’s impossible for an opposing defense to contain playmakers. Wide Receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce were elected to the Pro Bowl. Both have accrued over 80 receptions, 1,300 yards, and double-digit touchdowns. The Pats’ pass defense ranks average against opposing number 1 receivers. In Week 6, Hill accrued 142 yards and three touchdowns on seven receptions.
Hill is arguably the NFL’s most dangerous receiver downfield. During the regular season, he accrued over 700 yards, over 100 yards after the catch, and seven touchdowns on 20+-yard targets. He’s also a threat in sweeps and various other running plays that utilize his top-notch speed. Sammy Watkins has been battling injury for most of the regular season. He looked healthy against the Colts, catching six of eight targets for 62 yards. A healthy Watkins will give Kansas City’s offense an additional weapon.
With their weapons, the Chiefs earned the number one ranking in scoring offense. They averaged 35.1 points per game, 2.3 more than the next-best team. Their worst performance was a 24-point one (counting regulation only) against the NFL’s top defense in Baltimore. The Chiefs were explosive, accruing .555 points per play and ranking second in marginal explosiveness and first in big play rate, and they ranked first in efficiency.
I’m avoiding a „team total“ play because I think the weather could potentially keep this game much lower-scoring than in the regular season match-up, a 43-40 New England victory in Week 6. Nevertheless, I think Kansas City’s offense constitutes a strong reason to bet on the Chiefs ATS.
New England (12-5 SU, 10-7 ATS) at Kansas City (13-4 SU, 10-6-1 ATS)
Saturday, January 20, 6:40 p.m. ET (CBS)
NFL Pick: Chiefs ATS
In the Divisional Round, New England’s defense limited the Chargers’ top-10 offense to 14 points after three quarters and the game was already decided. They harassed Philip Rivers, accruing two sacks and seven quarterback hits, and L.A.’s run game couldn’t get anything going. The question is whether we can expect a similarly solid performance against the Chiefs.
It helps a defense immensely when its team’s offense is dominant. The Patriots’ offense accrued 38 minutes of time of possession, helping to keep the Chargers’ offense out of rhythm by forcing them to spend a lot of time on the sidelines and by keeping its defense fresh. Also, an offense becomes more predictable when it’s behind because it needs to pass and can’t establish the run. The Chargers’ pass-first mentality made them more predictable for New England’s pass rush.
Kansas City’s edge on offense will prevent the Patriots from leading from start to finish and the Chiefs’ offensive balance will make it more unpredictable. Not to mention, flushing Philip Rivers out of the pocket would not have the same effect on Patrick Mahomes. Even if the Patriots’ pass rush is effective, Mahomes is a highlight-reel playmaker who can extend plays with his mobility. When these teams met in Week 6, Mahomes’ passer rating outside the pocket was 106.3, even though he threw three of his four touchdowns inside the pocket. Mahomes throws with pinpoint accuracy, accruing a 66% completion rate, while averaging 8.8 YPA. What helps Mahomes is that he has a number of other playmakers at his disposal—at running back, wide receiver, and tight end.
The loss of Kareem Hunt is no big deal because of Damien Williams. Williams is versatile, averaging 5.1 YPC and seven yards per reception. Against a highly-ranked Indianapolis run defense in the Divisional Round, he accrued 129 rushing yards on 25 carries. With his 4.45 40-speed, he's going to cause problems to a New England linebacking corps that is notoriously slow in pursuit. The Pats rank 22nd in pass defense against opposing running backs. When these teams met in the regular season, Hunt accrued 105 receiving yards.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="de"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Playoff victory got us feelin' like: <a href="https://t.co/a0CqVts1jX">pic.twitter.com/a0CqVts1jX</a></p>— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) <a href=" ">13. Januar 2019</a></blockquote>
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Mahomes’ elusiveness helps explain why KC’s offensive line ranks fifth in adjusted sack rate, eight spots ahead of L.A's. When a play lasts long enough, it’s impossible for an opposing defense to contain playmakers. Wide Receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce were elected to the Pro Bowl. Both have accrued over 80 receptions, 1,300 yards, and double-digit touchdowns. The Pats’ pass defense ranks average against opposing number 1 receivers. In Week 6, Hill accrued 142 yards and three touchdowns on seven receptions.
Hill is arguably the NFL’s most dangerous receiver downfield. During the regular season, he accrued over 700 yards, over 100 yards after the catch, and seven touchdowns on 20+-yard targets. He’s also a threat in sweeps and various other running plays that utilize his top-notch speed. Sammy Watkins has been battling injury for most of the regular season. He looked healthy against the Colts, catching six of eight targets for 62 yards. A healthy Watkins will give Kansas City’s offense an additional weapon.
With their weapons, the Chiefs earned the number one ranking in scoring offense. They averaged 35.1 points per game, 2.3 more than the next-best team. Their worst performance was a 24-point one (counting regulation only) against the NFL’s top defense in Baltimore. The Chiefs were explosive, accruing .555 points per play and ranking second in marginal explosiveness and first in big play rate, and they ranked first in efficiency.
I’m avoiding a „team total“ play because I think the weather could potentially keep this game much lower-scoring than in the regular season match-up, a 43-40 New England victory in Week 6. Nevertheless, I think Kansas City’s offense constitutes a strong reason to bet on the Chiefs ATS.
