Chasing #2


CTG Big Brother
I like a lot today, some a lot stronger than others.

First, a parlay (for a token amount)

Over 180.5 in CHA
Under 217.5 in BOS
Under 188.5 in SAS
Under 207.5 in DEN


Under 217.5

- all my stats based on opening lines & regulation scores


My take on this spot for PHX is based on the question, how much more can these guys put up, since they aren't robots?

- Last season PHX played a road game on a B2B, that doubled as a 3rd in 4 nights, 11 times. Their record in those games was U/O 6-4-1, which (given 1 point to the Push to make an Over) is pretty much a wash, no real indicator on the surface of things. But when the 2 preceding games totaled 429 points or less, their record was U/O 3-3. When their 2 preceding games totaled 430 points or more (as here), their record was U/O 3-1-1 - understandably, the more effort they had to put in the preceding 2 games, the more a toll that took on their production numbers for that B2B, 3rd in 4th night game.

- Their highest aggregates over 4 sequential games last season were 937, 936 & 935 points. 2 seasons ago (with Richardson & Johnson present), they managed 962, 962, 956 & 952 (as anything higher than seen last season) - these figures incl. any OT points. In their last 3 games headed into this one, they have managed 785 points. To top the highest they've managed at anytime since adopting their current style, they'd only need to total 178 points with Boston (and that of course is measured against a figure involving players no longer playing for PHX - measured against the best figure theyve managed since those departures, they'd only need 153 points).

- The best PHX managed last season over any 2 consecutive games (in regulation) was 474, 474 & 470. While every subsequent game to those 3 went Over, every one came with at least 1 days rest, and the highest aggregate they managed over any 3 games was 696 points. They'd only need to total 202 points here to do something they couldnt manage last season.

- In their 4 meetings with BOS since adopting their present style, they've combined to total 212, 247, 197 & 196, the latter 2 totals minus Richardson & Johnson (@BOS bolded).

- teams off OT 230/100-100 games over the last 2 seasons, incl. PHX games are 14-3 to Under (PHX themselves 2-1 to Under).

- PHX had two 8(+) game winning streaks last season. The first time, when they played their 9th game, they totaled 166 on the road (won by 4, they stunk just as much as the other team, NYK), and the second time 241 @home, both with rest.


As far as what Boston brings to the table, I pretty much have a good feel for this team, and whenever theyve managed a streak of a few Over or Unders and are playing at home, I dont trust to back with that streak, because they're not a team I see sustaining such total runs via home fixtures: they're never too far away from their next home Under or Over. They enter this home game with 4 Overs & 1 Under their last 5 games, so playing Under here is according to my perception of that team, and aligns itself to anything they managed with PHX last season.

This is a chase simply because I dont see Boston (given that 4-1 Over mark last 5) going Over against both PHX & NJY, given both those teams play BOS off their mammoth 318 point 2OT game. So its a small bet to start with. I must add, I could have taken 219.5 for this total, but settled for the higher odds. If this goes Under, I dont think it will be close for such a difference to matter.
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be careful with Under on the Friday night games!

Celtics have no centers, suns will run, run, and run some more! suns games are 7-0 Over on the road!
GL on the total plays BC, I may tail ya on a few, so good health to us both tonight.
JP - theres a reason I'm sticking that one in a parlay. 1, its Houston. 2, what you just said. But as I said with my MIN/HOU play, Im convinced HOU Overs are about to show up w/all their road games coming, so I had to incl. that one at that number.

allsmiley - and when I backed the MIN-DEN Under, DEN was 11-0 to Over vs all teams other than the Clips. All streaks end, I am not afraid to go against the grain.

renew, gpcyan - thanks, GL w/your plays.:cheers:
allsmiley said:
did not mean to discourage you BC. GL!

Not at all. If I was approaching this Under in my usual method, I'd have brought up that fact (I was aware, although through my regulation stats they're actually 5-1-1 to Over on the road), and stated I was aware of it and willing to go against it. But here, my approach from PHX's side has been purely about immediate numbers. I dont want to discourage people posting facts I may have missed.

68 after 1, and I dont mind but 1 thing.

Yesterday in a 58 minute run around, NJY & PHX totaled 58 FT attempts. Today, they're on pace for 82 FT attempts in 10 less minutes, and nothing's changed with the run-around style. Precisely because of their style, PHX is never up in the top ranks of FT attempts, so where are these calls coming from? They clearly made 55-60 period (with normal calling) into what it ended as.


113 at the half. I expect the 2nd half to be lower scoring, given logically that is when last night's effort is most likely to catch up with the Suns.


Can afford 56 in the last. Although I might pay for turning down the 219.5 I could have had, this opening line was 218 so I can't record it (as per my stat keeping rules) as an Under result should I lose anyway, hence such a result (it falling on 218 or 219) would not undermine the basis of this chase.


21 FT attempts in the first period, 27 over the rest of the game. This bet was won & lost quite clearly in 1 place. My question: did their style of play dramatically change from the 1st vs the 2nd, 3rd & 4th periods? Its a rhetorical question.
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Under 208.5

- all my stats based on opening lines & regulation scores


- had gone 12-2 to Over their last 14 games prior to playing ATL in their last game. They had 1 almost identical spell last season, which was easily their best such total period seen that season, when they went 11-3 to Over. While their present season run incl. 8 home games, their run last season incl. 9 home games, understandably making it easier for them to sustain such Over form. What followed last season's run, was a 9-1 to Under run through their next 10 games, a reality that clearly reflected the inability for Denver to sustain such numbers, mirrored in the fact that only 4 of those 10 games were at home. Incl. the ATL game they just played, Denver has "only" 5 of their next 10 games at home, reflecting the scheduling similarities, at least, of this comparison. Of course the ATL game was an Under result.

- Denver's best unbroken Over run last season was 7 games, that was followed by a 13-4 to Under run over their next 17 games (which ended by the pendulum swinging once again with a 6-0 Over run, and that itself was followed by a 5-2 to Under run). Since reeling off 10 straight Overs, Denver is 3-2 to Under and, to my mind, the same thing is happening as per last season's examples. The pendulum is swinging back and, at only 5 games duration, I dont believe it's ready to swing back to Over just yet. The time to fear placing an Under bet with Denver involved won't arrive for awhile, IMO.

- Denver has yet to win a game without themselves scoring 100 points. This deep into a season, that is uncommon, even for Phoenix (who have done it 3 times already). This is mirrored in the fact they're the only team not to have repeated totals of both nature this season. Every other team has registered consecutive Unders & Overs to this point (as had every team last season). It's statistically rare for this to be the case, yet Denver hasn't registered consecutive Unders this season: their last game was of course their Under with ATL.

- Denver is conceding 5.2 points less than their otherwise average coming off a home loss this season. They are scoring 2.5 points less in the same spot.


- Last season Miami played without Shaq til Dec 11th. In that time they had 9 totals surpass 190 points, with 7 of those totals reaching 200(+) points - 77.7%. This season, to Dec 8th, they've surpassed 190 points a total of 8 times, yet only reached 200(+) points 3 times - 37.5%.
Its clear having had a long post season the year before is affecting their offense, Shaq or no Shaq.

- Off a road win this season, is U/O 1-3 at an average of 186.2 points. Those 3 Overs went over by 3, 2 & 8 points: the largest of the 3 needed a 61 point 4th period to moose an Under that was easily being delivered, and was played on 2 days rest. IMO if this game goes Over tonight, it's not going to be by much at all.

- last season on a B2B that doubled as a 3rd in 4 nights, went U/O 1-1 at an average of 178.5 points w/out Shaq. The Over being in Denver with a soft 194.0 total. Miami brought 7 Unders in their previous 9 games into that contest: they bring 7 Overs in their last 9 games into this contest.

Last game of a 4 game Western road trip for Maimi, and they've already managed to go 2-1. I cant see them in this spot being concerned to finish their trip at 2-2, when to finish 3-1 would mean them needing to match the energy Denver will bring themselves at home off a home loss. But if Miami to decide to compete, I think it'll be a scrappy game, which is why I'm opting for this rather than Denver ATS.
Denver, from a more purely statistical standpoint, is not going much deeper into this season IMO without putting up consecutive Under results, and there'll be a chance to back up this natured bet soon enough.
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I stopped following the Denver game the moment Camby got tossed. A big thanks to the refs in both games. Fortunately, as I said, both were chases.
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Under 209.5

Denver vs Atlanta
This is the 2nd leg of my chase regarding Denver recording consecutive under results for the first time this season (hence the reason I'm posting it in this thread, in which the 1st leg was posted). Since their last game vs Dallas was an Under result, it means this game tonight can obviously end their statistically anomalous feat of lasting this deep into the season without having recorded such.

I'm not presenting a wealth of stats but what I have found means I'm willing to chase here rather than not. JJ is obviously missing and last game without him, ATL as a team against not a great defense shot 36.6% from the floor outside of 1 bench player (who via 58.8% shooting and 26 pts kept their effort looking at least respectable). ATL hasnt played bad defense at all this season (conceding just 92.6 at home in reg.) and of course neither of these teams reached 100 pts when they played each other in Denver recently (a venue where I'd expect they'd score more than in ATL) and of course JJ did play in that game.
From Denver's side of things, while they have a heavily Over biased totals record, remember a large number of those games (62.5%) were home games, allowing them to sustain that Over form. 8 of their 10 home games have seen them reach 100 points, but in only 5 of their 8 road games (1 reversed result off 50%) have they managed the same. With ATL coming off having conceded their highest total this season, off a couple of DD losses, I think to stay in this game they're going to be a scrappy bunch.
Slightly lower amount invested for me in this spot as opposed to my usual amount for the 2nd leg of a chase, because where most of my chases I quit on if its not in by the 2nd attempt, I'm willing to go a 3rd time at this should I fail here.
thanks, renew.

Thou I dare say if this is an Under game, a lot of the Denver ATS backers on this board are likely not going to be riding an easy winner home.
Thanks, Lunch.:cheers:

I'm now 4-0 in chases this season (1 x 1st game winner, 3 x 2nd game winners [greater profit games]).
Congrats BC. You always amaze me. With the limited amount of plays you make, or at least post, do you bet a high % of your bankroll on most games? While I'm asking questions, how many games do you play a year on avg. in an NBA season? Once again, congrats.
JP - If you get into money specifics, that can cause grief so thats why I keep my relating of that area to generalities when it comes to posting. But you are right - given my number of plays, I do bet a higher than normal % of my bankroll than the prescribed 2-5% when it comes to my normal-bigger plays. I dont chase, for instance, easily or readily, and am quite willing to pull out if things go sour (for instance, if Denver had a heap of home games coming up, rather than road games, and tonight had gone over, then I'd likely have shut this one down).

As far as how many plays I might make, my usual comfort zone is 1 play/day. Previously I've dealt with liking more than 1 play (a lot) by employing parlays, but I'm adverse to risking a lot with those, so a couple of days back my posting 2 SU plays as well as a parlay was my *stepping it up* so to speak. But those days wont be often, I'm still pretty much a 1 play (at best) a day, simply because if I like a number of plays, I trust myself to perceive the most likely one and instead of risking A, B & C on 3 diff plays, I'll risk the *3* amounts on the same play. Long ago I learnt nothing pissed me more than splitting 2 games or going 1-2 when the 1 winner was the play I liked the most.

I'd be lucky in previous seasons to make 30 plays/month.
Good info. I've never been one who wanted to know what somebody is betting or feel the need to disclose what I'm wagering. You answer was exactly what I was looking for. Thanks.