BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
I like a lot today, some a lot stronger than others.
First, a parlay (for a token amount)
Over 180.5 in CHA
Under 217.5 in BOS
Under 188.5 in SAS
Under 207.5 in DEN
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Under 217.5
- all my stats based on opening lines & regulation scores
Phoenix
My take on this spot for PHX is based on the question, how much more can these guys put up, since they aren't robots?
- Last season PHX played a road game on a B2B, that doubled as a 3rd in 4 nights, 11 times. Their record in those games was U/O 6-4-1, which (given 1 point to the Push to make an Over) is pretty much a wash, no real indicator on the surface of things. But when the 2 preceding games totaled 429 points or less, their record was U/O 3-3. When their 2 preceding games totaled 430 points or more (as here), their record was U/O 3-1-1 - understandably, the more effort they had to put in the preceding 2 games, the more a toll that took on their production numbers for that B2B, 3rd in 4th night game.
- Their highest aggregates over 4 sequential games last season were 937, 936 & 935 points. 2 seasons ago (with Richardson & Johnson present), they managed 962, 962, 956 & 952 (as anything higher than seen last season) - these figures incl. any OT points. In their last 3 games headed into this one, they have managed 785 points. To top the highest they've managed at anytime since adopting their current style, they'd only need to total 178 points with Boston (and that of course is measured against a figure involving players no longer playing for PHX - measured against the best figure theyve managed since those departures, they'd only need 153 points).
- The best PHX managed last season over any 2 consecutive games (in regulation) was 474, 474 & 470. While every subsequent game to those 3 went Over, every one came with at least 1 days rest, and the highest aggregate they managed over any 3 games was 696 points. They'd only need to total 202 points here to do something they couldnt manage last season.
- In their 4 meetings with BOS since adopting their present style, they've combined to total 212, 247, 197 & 196, the latter 2 totals minus Richardson & Johnson (@BOS bolded).
- teams off OT 230/100-100 games over the last 2 seasons, incl. PHX games are 14-3 to Under (PHX themselves 2-1 to Under).
- PHX had two 8(+) game winning streaks last season. The first time, when they played their 9th game, they totaled 166 on the road (won by 4, they stunk just as much as the other team, NYK), and the second time 241 @home, both with rest.
Boston
As far as what Boston brings to the table, I pretty much have a good feel for this team, and whenever theyve managed a streak of a few Over or Unders and are playing at home, I dont trust to back with that streak, because they're not a team I see sustaining such total runs via home fixtures: they're never too far away from their next home Under or Over. They enter this home game with 4 Overs & 1 Under their last 5 games, so playing Under here is according to my perception of that team, and aligns itself to anything they managed with PHX last season.
This is a chase simply because I dont see Boston (given that 4-1 Over mark last 5) going Over against both PHX & NJY, given both those teams play BOS off their mammoth 318 point 2OT game. So its a small bet to start with. I must add, I could have taken 219.5 for this total, but settled for the higher odds. If this goes Under, I dont think it will be close for such a difference to matter.
First, a parlay (for a token amount)
Over 180.5 in CHA
Under 217.5 in BOS
Under 188.5 in SAS
Under 207.5 in DEN
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Under 217.5
- all my stats based on opening lines & regulation scores
Phoenix
My take on this spot for PHX is based on the question, how much more can these guys put up, since they aren't robots?
- Last season PHX played a road game on a B2B, that doubled as a 3rd in 4 nights, 11 times. Their record in those games was U/O 6-4-1, which (given 1 point to the Push to make an Over) is pretty much a wash, no real indicator on the surface of things. But when the 2 preceding games totaled 429 points or less, their record was U/O 3-3. When their 2 preceding games totaled 430 points or more (as here), their record was U/O 3-1-1 - understandably, the more effort they had to put in the preceding 2 games, the more a toll that took on their production numbers for that B2B, 3rd in 4th night game.
- Their highest aggregates over 4 sequential games last season were 937, 936 & 935 points. 2 seasons ago (with Richardson & Johnson present), they managed 962, 962, 956 & 952 (as anything higher than seen last season) - these figures incl. any OT points. In their last 3 games headed into this one, they have managed 785 points. To top the highest they've managed at anytime since adopting their current style, they'd only need to total 178 points with Boston (and that of course is measured against a figure involving players no longer playing for PHX - measured against the best figure theyve managed since those departures, they'd only need 153 points).
- The best PHX managed last season over any 2 consecutive games (in regulation) was 474, 474 & 470. While every subsequent game to those 3 went Over, every one came with at least 1 days rest, and the highest aggregate they managed over any 3 games was 696 points. They'd only need to total 202 points here to do something they couldnt manage last season.
- In their 4 meetings with BOS since adopting their present style, they've combined to total 212, 247, 197 & 196, the latter 2 totals minus Richardson & Johnson (@BOS bolded).
- teams off OT 230/100-100 games over the last 2 seasons, incl. PHX games are 14-3 to Under (PHX themselves 2-1 to Under).
- PHX had two 8(+) game winning streaks last season. The first time, when they played their 9th game, they totaled 166 on the road (won by 4, they stunk just as much as the other team, NYK), and the second time 241 @home, both with rest.
Boston
As far as what Boston brings to the table, I pretty much have a good feel for this team, and whenever theyve managed a streak of a few Over or Unders and are playing at home, I dont trust to back with that streak, because they're not a team I see sustaining such total runs via home fixtures: they're never too far away from their next home Under or Over. They enter this home game with 4 Overs & 1 Under their last 5 games, so playing Under here is according to my perception of that team, and aligns itself to anything they managed with PHX last season.
This is a chase simply because I dont see Boston (given that 4-1 Over mark last 5) going Over against both PHX & NJY, given both those teams play BOS off their mammoth 318 point 2OT game. So its a small bet to start with. I must add, I could have taken 219.5 for this total, but settled for the higher odds. If this goes Under, I dont think it will be close for such a difference to matter.
Last edited:
