Chargers AFC futures are still juicy , get them before its too late !!!

DOUBLEUP4LIFE

DOUBLEUP4LIFE

Pretty much a regular
Appears they are getting hot and healthy at the right time ...
Defense is playing the best I've seen in years ...

Thinking they're a match up problem for the top 3 in the conference....

Been spreading long shot money on them the last few weeks ...

Thoughts??



Futures to follow
 
wizardofodd said:
The coach is very capable of costing them a game any given Sunday

I love their team, and wish they make it far into the playoffs and will be cheering for them
Click to expand...
He really pisses me off at times , especially last season .

Although it seems like he has become much more conservative down the stretch ( maybe that's just in my head though, not sure if the stats agree with me)
 
wizardofodd said:
He has gotten better. Last year, even thought I have no hair, I wanted to rip it out with some of his decisions
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I smashed 2 direct TV remotes last season watching him shet away games ...Could have burned down the house when he blew my large Chargers playoff future and longshot game to end tied in the finale ...

He appears to have learned a thing or 2 ....

Thinking the Chargers are a horrible matchup for my Bills , could play a tight one vs the Bengals who might be looking ahead , and the Chiefs should have a hard time beating the Bolts a 3rd time ..

Wish I got in earlier , believe they were +2500 in November..
 
The thing with Staley is that while he caught (and catches) a bunch of shit for “bad decisions,” he seems to have a plan incorporating analytics and just sticks with it and has continued doing so.

I’m not sure anything changed other than the results (of particular plays, games, whatever) from last year to this year. Give me the coach who will continue to make the “unpopular” decision (based in math and stats which will win out long term) but stay true to what he is and what he believes in on the field (as far as analytics/philosophy go).

For years we heard people bitching their coach didn’t gamble enough, didn’t make the analytic play enough, was too “old school.” Then we get a few coaches who buck that trend and do what so, so many people were clamoring for, and they get roasted because the result didn’t work out. You can’t have it both ways.
 
Agree and really like GB in the NFC if they end up getting in.

Tough to pass up LAC at that number, I’m in the same boat as you wishing I bet them when they were +2500 or so.
 
Have they suddenly figured out how to stop the run or have they just been playing pass happy teams of late? Unless theyve magically solved that issue it seems hard to fathom them advancing to the AFC championship game. Just my opinion.
 
wizardofodd said:
The coach is very capable of costing them a game any given Sunday

I love their team, and wish they make it far into the playoffs and will be cheering for them
Click to expand...
Yup.

I have a future from 11 months ago BUT the coach is too much too overcome...
 
jedi ninja said:
The thing with Staley is that while he caught (and catches) a bunch of shit for “bad decisions,” he seems to have a plan incorporating analytics and just sticks with it and has continued doing so.

I’m not sure anything changed other than the results (of particular plays, games, whatever) from last year to this year. Give me the coach who will continue to make the “unpopular” decision (based in math and stats which will win out long term) but stay true to what he is and what he believes in on the field (as far as analytics/philosophy go).

For years we heard people bitching their coach didn’t gamble enough, didn’t make the analytic play enough, was too “old school.” Then we get a few coaches who buck that trend and do what so, so many people were clamoring for, and they get roasted because the result didn’t work out. You can’t have it both ways.
Click to expand...
Check out last year's aggressiveness vs. this year's...he's for sure toned it back this season.

Also, while a lot of coaches make bone-headed decisions at times...this guy made one last year that LITERALLY caused them a playoff spot. He called timeout in OT in the final game where the Raiders were going to run the clock out and take the tie so they both got in.

That is an enormous blunder that I don't know if many will ever forget.
 
scarf31 said:
Check out last year's aggressiveness vs. this year's...he's for sure toned it back this season.

Also, while a lot of coaches make bone-headed decisions at times...this guy made one last year that LITERALLY caused them a playoff spot. He called timeout in OT in the final game where the Raiders were going to run the clock out and take the tie so they both got in.

That is an enormous blunder that I don't know if many will ever forget.
Click to expand...

Yes, the final game blunder was awful.

I’d like to see more about his toned down aggressiveness this season. Do you have anything I can look at showing where they went for it less on 4th down, punted more, etc? I’m not doubting you, but would love to verify that so I can learn.
 
jedi ninja said:
Yes, the final game blunder was awful.

I’d like to see more about his toned down aggressiveness this season. Do you have anything I can look at showing where they went for it less on 4th down, punted more, etc? I’m not doubting you, but would love to verify that so I can learn.
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No, I hear you...and maybe I should've angled my argument with a lot of inconsistencies this season.

The info I was going off of was from The Athletic stating that the Chargers essentially have an "automated system" for 4th down calls unless Staley overrules the forumla / analytics. Article is behind a paywall but think this is the link....

theathletic.com

'If we lose, we're going to do it on our terms': Chargers' Brandon Staley on math, mindset

Staley discusses fourth downs and the dreaded, polarizing word that has caused arguments and outrage across sports: analytics.
theathletic.com theathletic.com

So if the decisions are (almost) pre-determined...

Why in the Chiefs game where they'reagainst their most important opponent is he ignoring the analytics on 4th down?

ftw.usatoday.com

Brandon Staley's extremely conservative 4th down decisions against the Chiefs still has NFL fans completely baffled

What happened to Brandon Staley, y’all?
ftw.usatoday.com ftw.usatoday.com

Throw in the fact that he put Herbert out there the week after he got his ribs crushed in the same game and I'm just not super confident in his overall decision making (or overriding) some of those decisions.
 
scarf31 said:
No, I hear you...and maybe I should've angled my argument with a lot of inconsistencies this season.

The info I was going off of was from The Athletic stating that the Chargers essentially have an "automated system" for 4th down calls unless Staley overrules the forumla / analytics. Article is behind a paywall but think this is the link....

theathletic.com

'If we lose, we're going to do it on our terms': Chargers' Brandon Staley on math, mindset

Staley discusses fourth downs and the dreaded, polarizing word that has caused arguments and outrage across sports: analytics.
theathletic.com theathletic.com

So if the decisions are (almost) pre-determined...

Why in the Chiefs game where they'reagainst their most important opponent is he ignoring the analytics on 4th down?

ftw.usatoday.com

Brandon Staley's extremely conservative 4th down decisions against the Chiefs still has NFL fans completely baffled

What happened to Brandon Staley, y’all?
ftw.usatoday.com ftw.usatoday.com

Throw in the fact that he put Herbert out there the week after he got his ribs crushed in the same game and I'm just not super confident in his overall decision making (or overriding) some of those decisions.
Click to expand...

Thanks, I’ll read over shortly but good stuff it looks like.

As far as the Herbert injury thing…first it would have been completely up to Herbert if he could/couldn’t go, so if we’re blaming one we should blame all. Surprisingly though, Herbert didn’t get re-injured and that injury seemed to heal up over time (Herbert claimed he was essentially 100% only 2 weeks after the injury) and they didn’t miss a beat…could say it ended up being the correct decision given that.

Either way, even if that rib injury is the sticking point, that’s unrelated to the analytics approach and whether or not he’s more conservative this year.
 
jedi ninja said:
Thanks, I’ll read over shortly but good stuff it looks like.

As far as the Herbert injury thing…first it would have been completely up to Herbert if he could/couldn’t go, so if we’re blaming one we should blame all. Surprisingly though, Herbert didn’t get re-injured and that injury seemed to heal up over time (Herbert claimed he was essentially 100% only 2 weeks after the injury) and they didn’t miss a beat…could say it ended up being the correct decision given that.

Either way, even if that rib injury is the sticking point, that’s unrelated to the analytics approach and whether or not he’s more conservative this year.
Click to expand...
That's fair...and his ability to "override" any analytical decision makes it somewhat easy to criticize his decisions.

Lot of factors to take into account so it's a tough interpretation....they're 2nd in FG under 30 yards and he's punting on 4th/1 vs. KC....but on the other hand, he's going 4th/2 under 2 minutes at Cleveland and going for 2 in Arizona for the win.

IMO it's Lombardi and his scheme that is the problem and they just can overcome a lot of that because Herbert is just so damn good.
 
PNGFROM2003 said:
Have they suddenly figured out how to stop the run or have they just been playing pass happy teams of late? Unless theyve magically solved that issue it seems hard to fathom them advancing to the AFC championship game. Just my opinion.
Click to expand...
The BILLS could easily get shredded by the run as well ..The Fins should have run for 300 on them a few weeks back but they stopped giving Mostert the ball down the stretch ...

Chargers definitely have some holes and questions in defense , but it looks like they're figuring it out to me...

Completely understand why they're a long shot though ...
Top 3 are very good
 
DOUBLEUP4LIFE said:
Appears they are getting hot and healthy at the right time ...
Defense is playing the best I've seen in years ...

Thinking they're a match up problem for the top 3 in the conference....

Been spreading long shot money on them the last few weeks ...

Thoughts??



Futures to follow
Click to expand...

Aren't you part of the bills mafia? Come on bro!
 
I think you making the mistake lots have before you with this team, you falling for the talent and ignoring the fact they have a awful coaching staff. Their surge at the end the season looks like a product of playing a bunch of trash teams, yes they healthier, although the moron coach tried to see if he could get some his fragile players hurt in last weeks meaningless game, but they still not well coached. Even if Staley wasn’t the liability I think he absolutely is their path is freaking brutal, at jags is no layup as indicated by spread, then they would have to beat kc then at the winner of bills/bengals, both those last 2 most likely in unpleasant weather. They talented enough I agree there, but the coaching disadvantage and path in afc just too tough to overcome imo.
 
Again I agree they do match up pretty well with kc, prob match up well w bills also cause bills don’t have much a run game, why are they a matchup problem for cincy tho? I don’t see anyone as a matchup problem for the bengals cause they can do everything pretty well, they obviously got a fantastic passing game with burrow and all those weapons, they have 2 really good running backs (who would gash chargers), plus they play fantastic d and their dc is incredible with halftime adjustments as they don’t give up anything after halftime!

For my money bengals are the best team in the league, they have won 9 straight and 10 of 11, mostly been dominate, only reason for the slow start was burrow having the appendix surgery in preseason. I’m incredibly confident they would have beat bills amd been the 2 seed if not for the unfortunate event that cancelled that game, up to that point they looked the better team and as mentioned they get stronger in 2nd half so don’t think it any kind of stretch to say they should be the 2 seed, the good news is I think getting hosed put a extra little chip on their shoulders that gonna drive them back to the SB, bengals +850 to win it all I think the best future out there.
 
2daBank said:
Again I agree they do match up pretty well with kc, prob match up well w bills also cause bills don’t have much a run game, why are they a matchup problem for cincy tho? I don’t see anyone as a matchup problem for the bengals cause they can do everything pretty well, they obviously got a fantastic passing game with burrow and all those weapons, they have 2 really good running backs (who would gash chargers), plus they play fantastic d and their dc is incredible with halftime adjustments as they don’t give up anything after halftime!

For my money bengals are the best team in the league, they have won 9 straight and 10 of 11, mostly been dominate, only reason for the slow start was burrow having the appendix surgery in preseason. I’m incredibly confident they would have beat bills amd been the 2 seed if not for the unfortunate event that cancelled that game, up to that point they looked the better team and as mentioned they get stronger in 2nd half so don’t think it any kind of stretch to say they should be the 2 seed, the good news is I think getting hosed put a extra little chip on their shoulders that gonna drive them back to the SB, bengals +850 to win it all I think the best future out there.
Click to expand...

The Bills were tied for 2nd in the NFL in YPC this season. Chi 5.4, Buf and Balt 5.2 per carry.
 
jedi ninja said:
The Bills were tied for 2nd in the NFL in YPC this season. Chi 5.4, Buf and Balt 5.2 per carry.
Click to expand...

Cause of Allen and the fact they prob close to the bottom in carries, I don’t trust them to stick with a run game but I think it moot cause bengals are gonna beat them:
 
singletary was 4.6, cook did have a real high ypc but not a ton of attempts. I think that stat a bit deceiving when talking bout bills run game.
 
If somehow we do see a chargers/bills matchup it would def be smart for bills to run the shit out of the ball, if they would im not so sure?
 
2daBank said:
Cause of Allen and the fact they prob close to the bottom in carries, I don’t trust them to stick with a run game but I think it moot cause bengals are gonna beat them:
Click to expand...

They're middle of the pack or so with amount of carries (20th).

Some of the teams they had more attempts than, which is both interesting/surprising to me...Cincy, NE, Oak, Hou, TB, Min.
 
2daBank said:
singletary was 4.6, cook did have a real high ypc but not a ton of attempts. I think that stat a bit deceiving when talking bout bills run game.
Click to expand...

Sure. Any stat can be deceiving if you'd like.

You claimed they didn't have much of a run game. I think that's a fallacy, so tried to use stats to prove my case.

They also rushed more on 1st down (percentage wise) than all but 1 team, the Ravens.
 
jedi ninja said:
They're middle of the pack or so with amount of carries (20th).

Some of the teams they had more attempts than, which is both interesting/surprising to me...Cincy, NE, Oak, Hou, TB, Min.
Click to expand...

A couple of those real surprising. Pats I never woulda guessed, I’m assuming houston just ran so few plays as a team why they in that group, all year I’ve felt like Vikings really havnt been using cook enough, Oakland surprises me but feel like it took them a month or so to figure out they needed to feed jacobs, that one still surprises me. Bucs can’t run a lick, they have Brady throwing 50 passes a game which seems like a terrible strategy! Cincy is usually really into sticking with run game so that shocks me, Allen did have a bunch of attempts tho, he had more than cook, he ran for over 700 yards! Damn, didn’t realize he ran that much!
 
jedi ninja said:
Sure. Any stat can be deceiving if you'd like.

You claimed they didn't have much of a run game. I think that's a fallacy, so tried to use stats to prove my case.

They also rushed more on 1st down (percentage wise) than all but 1 team, the Ravens.
Click to expand...

I actually went back and added them after just saying chargers matched up decent w kc, I kinda lumped bills in as afterthought but you convincing me that prob not correct. There have been times the last few years I actually was screaming at bills for trying to run, lol. So they prob would take advantage of chargers god awful run d. I don’t see chargers being a incredibly tough matchup for any the big 3 really, other than the fact they are capable of scoring w them more so than most other teams. Personally I don’t think chargers have a chance in hell of beating jags, kc, and one of bills/cincy, of course I didn’t think cincy could make SB last year with how bad their oline was so wtf do I know? Lol (And now I love cincy, lol).
 
jedi ninja said:
The Bills were tied for 2nd in the NFL in YPC this season. Chi 5.4, Buf and Balt 5.2 per carry.
Click to expand...
Finally towards the end of the season the BILLS started giving carries to the Backs ...
My near 80 year old pops has been screaming at the TV most of the season " JUST RUN THE BALL !!, Simple hadoffs "
 
DOUBLEUP4LIFE said:
Finally towards the end of the season the BILLS started giving carries to the Backs ...
My near 80 year old pops has been screaming at the TV most of the season " JUST RUN THE BALL !!, Simple hadoffs "
Click to expand...

What funny is wken they played kc in playoffs I felt like they killed several possessions trying too hard to run the ball and not giving allen a chance.
 
2daBank said:
singletary was 4.6, cook did have a real high ypc but not a ton of attempts. I think that stat a bit deceiving when talking bout bills run game.
Click to expand...
It was driving us old BILLS Mafia guys bananas this season ...COOK would average 5-15.3 YPC In the first half , but they'd only give him 2-3 carries ...Then to make it worse they'd wait until the end of the 3rd to give him his 1st carry of the 2nd half ..
If one rushing attempt is less than 3.5 yards, Dorsey often abandons the run like an abject moron...
 
DOUBLEUP4LIFE said:
It was driving us old BILLS Mafia guys bananas this season ...COOK would average 5-15.3 YPC In the first half , but they'd only give him 2-3 carries ...Then to make it worse they'd wait until the end of the 3rd to give him his 1st carry of the 2nd half ..
If one rushing attempt is less than 3.5 yards, Dorsey often abandons the run like an abject moron...
Click to expand...

Yea that why I’m kinda teeter tottering on this cause there been a few times, specifically last year playoff game w kc I thought they wasted way too many plays trying to run in 1st half then again in 3rd qrtr, but then as you said I’ve seen them totally abandon it way to often. As good as cook looked the times I saw him get chances it seems crazy to me he didn’t get even 100 carries on the season.
 
2daBank said:
What funny is wken they played kc in playoffs I felt like they killed several possessions trying too hard to run the ball and not giving allen a chance.
Click to expand...
Much better run blocking line this season IMO ..Saffold can be a beast , and the league allows Morse to hold on almost every play ...Bates can be nasty ..
The play calling in the last 5 games has been greatly improving ( More runs and WR quick routes for Allen )...
 
DOUBLEUP4LIFE said:
Much better run blocking line this season IMO ..Saffold can be a beast , and the league allows Morse to hold on almost every play ...Bates can be nasty ..
The play calling in the last 5 games has been greatly improving ( More runs and WR quick routes for Allen )...
Click to expand...

I can’t wait for cincy/bills, I’m assuming we gonna be on opposite sides but either way that should be a hell of a game!
 
DOUBLEUP4LIFE said:
I think the BENGALS are the better team by 2-6 points , but Home Field and the Refs might help the soap opera BILLS
Click to expand...

I am a tad worried the hamler narrative gets bills a few calls along the way, the flip side to that is I think bengals developing a chip on their shoulders for how they were treated a tad unfairly in how they decided to compensate for the missed game. It should be a fantastic game, championship level quality in divisional round! We not getting that on the nfc side at all! I can’t believe I wasn’t big on burrow coming out of college but im quick to admit when I was wrong, for my money him and mahomes 1a-1b with Allen just behind. I know most have it mahomes, Allen, burrow but I’d take burrow to start my team, he certainly not the athletic freak of Allen but I think he has that Montana/Brady quality, when the chips are down I want that guy leading my team. Can’t go wrong w any of them tho.
 
Bengals offense has been relatively ineffective now for 6 quarters. Defense had 5 TOs vs a top maybe 75 QB last week and one was a score. Blanked against Pats. Throwing 42, 52 times a game too? Bengals have value for sure but I don’t think they’re by far and away better than everyone else. Plus I don’t think it benefits them to be coming off of 2 physical games against the Ravens and then needing 2 against the Bills\Chiefs.
 
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This all being said if I get 25% or 50% boosts I’ll be playing them on top of the +850. Already have around to win 180u on my 9ers having tossed 1u here and there every time a boost was offered. Added up especially back when 20-1 getting 25,30-1s!
 
Inspekdah said:
This all being said if I get 25% or 50% boosts I’ll be playing them on top of the +850. Already have around to win 180u on my 9ers having tossed 1u here and there every time a boost was offered. Added up especially back when 20-1 getting 25,30-1s!
Click to expand...

Nice. I wish I woulda grabbed some niners when Jimmy g went down, I did that the year Harbaugh switched to kapernick, of course came up 1 catch short in the SB but was still a good bet. The only way niners don’t make it is if Philly somehow gets rolling again, I’d worry bout purdy a bit in Philly against what the eagles were a month ago, just think eagles might be the classic peaked to early team this year and might get bounced in 1st game!
 
2daBank said:
Nice. I wish I woulda grabbed some niners when Jimmy g went down, I did that the year Harbaugh switched to kapernick, of course came up 1 catch short in the SB but was still a good bet. The only way niners don’t make it is if Philly somehow gets rolling again, I’d worry bout purdy a bit in Philly against what the eagles were a month ago, just think eagles might be the classic peaked to early team this year and might get bounced in 1st game!
Click to expand...

Yeah don’t like Purdy to have to lead a double digit come back. And Hurts and the Eagles at home when healthy could pose challenges for the 9ers for sure. I’m not sure how to read into their coach saying he’s (Hurts) is hurting badly out there. I do think crappier the conditions the better for the 9ers so bring on the wind and rain!
 
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