Championship Week writeups and hopefully feedback

[Br@ssknux]

Bad week last week. I went 6-9 and that sent me back under 55% for the year. Had some bad breaks, but there were some foolish plays in there as well. On to this week. I don't anticpate a whole lot this week. Will probably be back in the saddle full throttle for the bowls though.

1. Arizona +14.5 v Oregon: There's always risk in going against Oregon because they are firing on all cylinders offensively, but there really in only one side to consider in this one. Arizona has beaten Oregon twice in a row, including their win in Eugene earlier in the year. The two teams are very evenly matched, and now that Oregon has gotten on a bit of a roll defensively, both teams are very balanced. Anu Soloman was supposed to be hurt last week, but he looked fantastic in their game with ASU, so the assumption is that he should be good to go. This game is on a neutral site on grass, so the speed advantage that Oregon has is mitigated a bit. Although I'm concerned about how Arizona's defense will fare against Mariota in the passing game (#1 ranked passing team v 100th ranked passer rating against), the Cats did a nice job against Mariota last time, they have a definite defensive playmaker in LB Scooby Wright, and their offense will definitely have the edge on the Duck defense as well. 14 points on a neutral site is too many to lay against a team that has been proven to be a tough out, and seems to have Oregon's number. I wouldn't be shocked if Arizona pulled the outright, so yeah....I'll take 14.5 points.

 

[Timh]

BOL this week Brass, will be interested to see your take on the rest of the card.

 

[EAGLES2828]

nice write up bro, I will join you on this one. the ducks will win for sure but not by 15, the line should be ducks -7

my prediction is ducks 38 zona 31

 

[Br@ssknux]

BOL this week Brass, will be interested to see your take on the rest of the card.

Still working on it Timmy...had a ton going on this week so I got a late start. I don't know about you, but I found the lines to be pretty tight. Have not found a ton of value yet. BOL to you as well.

 

[Br@ssknux]

nice write up bro, I will join you on this one. the ducks will win for sure but not by 15, the line should be ducks -7

my prediction is ducks 38 zona 31

Thanks Eagles. Hope you're right on both counts because it would be a shame if Oregon got knocked out because they had to play an extra game.

 

[bloodhound]

I couldnt turn down those pts either
GL Brass

 

[Br@ssknux]

Thanks Hound. Having you on my side makes me feel pretty good about the first one.

 

[Br@ssknux]

2. Louisiana Tech +10 @ Marshall: Marshall has had a great year this year, but in the past 2 games they just haven't been themselves, having squeaked out a win against UAB, and then inexplicably dropping a home game outright to Western Kentucky. That loss ended any chance they had to play in a major bowl game, and their motivation has to be at a season low. Many times after a team's bubble is burst, they end up just screwing around for 60 minutes in the next game, and if Marshall does that, they'll lose outright, let alone cover double digits. Louisiana Tech is the best defense they will have faced by far this year, and although statistically Marshall is edges in pretty much every category, none of them are profound. Offensively, LT can move the ball effectively both through the air and on the ground, so I think this game has a great chance to be very competitive. The C-USA title game has been very kind to the dogs over the years, and I can definitely see that happening again this year.

 

[Br@ssknux]

3. Missouri +14.5 v Alabama: Say what you will about Missouri's offense in general and Maty Mauk in particular, (and you can say a lot because for the majority of the year they've been anemic) but they've been getting their shit together the last few weeks. They dropped 430 yards on a previously dominant Arkansas offense last week, and over the past 3 games they've averaged 485 yards. That's not to mention their defense, who has been a top 10 squad all year. Away from home, they've been spectacular, with a perfect record outright and against the spread, including 4 outright wins as a dog. On the flip side, Bama has yet to cover away from Bryant Denny stadium and needed overtime to push in the LSU game or they'd be 0-5 ATS. They gave up 600+ last week, so their defense is certainly not firing on all cylinders. I also think they can't help but be taking Missouri for granted a bit, as they probably had greater respect for Georgia in this potential spot. Missouri was here last year and laid an egg, they've scratched and clawed to get back to Atlanta and they've found ways to win all year away from home, and they are in their ultimate comfort zone as a significant dog away from home. Common opponent performance has been very similar. I like getting more than 2 TDs with this Mizzou team against a Bama team that is very solid, but flawed, especially away from Tuscaloosa, and certainly against a defense like Missouri's.

 

[Br@ssknux]

4. Kansas St +7 @Baylor: For some reason, I just have a feeling that it's not in the cards for Baylor this year. Everyone is talking about how Baylor is about to get screwed and left behind TCU in the standings, just watch them lose and make things easier for everyone. At times, Baylor's offense can go through major funks. typically it doesn't happen at home, but Kansas St has kind of had their number in recent years, covering 4 of the last 5 in the series. Also, K State throws the ball well, and Baylor has struggled mightily against good passing attacks, case in point being last week when Texas Tech and Patrick Mahomes threw for 609 yards on 31 completions. In the week prior to that, Oklahoma State QB Mason Rudolph threw for 281 yards on only 13 completions. Look for KSU wideout Tyler Lockett to perhaps get 200+ yards receiving in this one. Bryce Petty is also coming off a concussion. if he's not right, it's going to be very tough for the Bears to cover. Of course, Bill Snyder's Part II's 14-4 road dog and 37-13 overall in conference ATS performance have something to do with this play as well.


5. Georgia Tech +4 v Florida State: There's obvious danger in going against a team that finds a way to win games in a game with such a short spread, but I really think GT will win this game. Defensively they are nothing to write home about statistically, but they keep getting the job done. Case in point was last week when they held one of the strongest offenses in the country to 388 total yards and won between the hedges despite having a less than stellar offensive effort. FSU's defense is statistically weaker than Georgia's especially against the run, and teams usually cover when they outrush their opponent... something that is almost certain to occur in this game. GT is 5-1 ATS away from home and we all know how the Seminoles have fared ATS this year. FSU has struggled to stop the run all year, and they'll be facing the most efficient offense in the country with a coach that is likely to out-scheme Jimbo and company.

 

[Br@ssknux]

6. Ohio State +4.5 v Wisconsin: Going back to his time at Utah, Urban Meyer is 13-2 ATS as an underdog, and since he's been at Ohio State he's been dogged 3 times and has won all of them outright. Obviously, he's a bit behind the 8 ball this week due to the loss of his QB, but the defense is solid and many people think Cordale Jones is just as good as JT Barrett is, and was a higher recruited athlete than Barrett was. Ohio State is playing for everything here, and their pedigree is to in games like this. Even if they don't we've still got a chance if the game is close, and with Urban Meyer's pedigree, it would be foolish to go any other way.

 

[jimmymo]

really, really like both KSU and tOSU tomorrow......like what you have to say on both...solid work as always......I really want to bet GTECH as well, but something just bugging me in this spot.....beating GA meant a lot more to them than FSU beating UF.....GTECH in a very similar situational spot that AZ was tonight....

GL Knux.....get it

 

[Dollaz]

Marshall game is all about motivation for Marshall. If they are up for it, they should cover easily. Seen both in person and there just isn't a comparison, Marshall has far superior athletes. LT is gonna load the box and blitz and Cato is going to have chances over the top.

Im im not impressed with Lt as a team (lost with Rice too) as I think their success is largely based on turnovers. Offense can't move the ball that well if you can slow down Dixon.