Championship Week 15

bloodhound

bloodhound

Sniffing out wins
I would like to thank everyone who took time to write, phone and other wise tell me to quit feeling sorry for my self about some really bad picks in wk 11 and start posting again. So with the boards permission, I will try and post some winners this wk. For those that ask in the emails, yes I lost 3.7k on the A&M/Aub game and I feel like my recommendations may have affected some others decision and that hurts more than my loss. I post what I play and for how much as an indication of how much I like a particular game and I frigging loved that Auburn play and was bad wrong.. That being said, I was ask my feelings for this wks games so here goes...GLTA

Thursday
103 Central Florida* +7 -110 vs East Carolina 110/100
103 Central Florida/East Carolina* Under 56 -120 120/100
 103 Central Florida* +220 vs East Carolina 50/110
parlay 103 Central Fl* +10½ -200/ 103 Central Fl/East Car Under 61 -240 100/124

It is hard to go against ECar at home as their 'O' plays well with a 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS at home over the past two seasons and ECU has a big advantage at QB with Carden. But I like the way UCF 'D' is playing only allowing 16.8 ppg which is 4th nationally in total yds and 3-0 as a single-digit dog since 2013 and allowing just 14 pts since that embarrassing loss at Conn. True, ECU has the 3rd ranked 'O' which clicked well early in the season but not so much of late and with Knights secondary ranked 1st nationally in pass efficiency defense with 16 ints and 12 TDs I think this dog barks loud. Score prediction UCF 26 - ECU 24

back with the rest later
 
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Bout time ole fella :beer4:

People lose because of them, not you, don't be so hard on yourself. Welcome back.

Like UCF myself
 
Hound!! Good to see ya back! I've been tailing you for quite a while now. I don't post much but do tons of reading on this board. Yea, we both lost our asses on the A&M game but I would never blame you for that. Besides, you made me some pretty good coin last year so it all evens out! Thanks for all you hard work, you are my favorite poster here. And there's some talent on this board! GL hound glad you're back. Cheers
 
I wondered what happened to you, Blood. I've had a couple of good weeks since you last posted including my two biggest bets of the year--one was the over on that Marshall/W KY game last week, the biggest mistake Vegas has made on a line this year--and I see some I like again this week. If the line goes the way I want I'll have another max bet this week.

I'm going the same way you are on UCF. I'll always go for the best D and in addition to being 4th in total defense, UCF is 5th in scoring defense. The way the line is going we may get an extra half point by game time. I sense the same thing you do, E C is not the same team since they beat V Tech and N Carolina back to back, and now neither of those wins looks as impressive as they seemed at the time.

I fold my tent when the regular college season is over so this is my last week. I have no interest in losing what it took me all season to win, but I see a chance to make some money on a few of them.

Week 15
UCF +7 x5
Money Line
UCF

Season
71-34-1
Multi-Unit bets 22-11
Max Bets 2-0
 
Good to see you back Blood!!! Hope you are doing well sir..

Good to see you back also Tahoe! :) Good luck this week and look forward to the possible max bet.
 
Cappingchubster11 said:
Hound!! Good to see ya back! I've been tailing you for quite a while now. I don't post much but do tons of reading on this board. Yea, we both lost our asses on the A&M game but I would never blame you for that. Besides, you made me some pretty good coin last year so it all evens out! Thanks for all you hard work, you are my favorite poster here. And there's some talent on this board! GL hound glad you're back. Cheers
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TahoeLegend said:
I wondered what happened to you, Blood. I've had a couple of good weeks since you last posted including my two biggest bets of the year--one was the over on that Marshall/W KY game last week, the biggest mistake Vegas has made on a line this year--and I see some I like again this week. If the line goes the way I want I'll have another max bet this week.

I'm going the same way you are on UCF. I'll always go for the best D and in addition to being 4th in total defense, UCF is 5th in scoring defense. The way the line is going we may get an extra half point by game time. I sense the same thing you do, E C is not the same team since they beat V Tech and N Carolina back to back, and now neither of those wins looks as impressive as they seemed at the time.

I fold my tent when the regular college season is over so this is my last week. I have no interest in losing what it took me all season to win, but I see a chance to make some money on a few of them.

Week 15
UCF +7 x5
Money Line
UCF

Season
71-34-1
Multi-Unit bets 22-11
Max Bets 2-0
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Check_raise said:
Great to see you!!!

:happy::claphands::daman:

thanks for posting and I'm glad your ok.

GL
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bones said:
:cheers3:
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Malachievol said:
Good to see you back Blood!!! Hope you are doing well sir..

Good to see you back also Tahoe! :) Good luck this week and look forward to the possible max bet.
Click to expand...

Thanks Malachievol, I agree, Good to see TAhoe in here. He knows his stuff. GL




StoneColdStunna said:
Nice to see you back Blood! :Happy5:
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Thanks, Lets have a good wk StoneCold GL
 
well hell, I replied to all in the above post but i guess I have forgotten how to do this stuff cause much of it got lost, oh well

.....bottom line is Thanks to all for the kind words and words of encouragement
BOL to All
 
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Blood - I am glad to see you back on the board, missed you my friend. Hope everything is going well for you and look forward to finishing off the football season in good fashion.
 
I told you they missed you you old fart. Just start drinking and keep winning. You are going to kick ass this holiday season. GL
 
I thought the Marshall/La Tech line might jump to 14, but I'm hearing rumbles it may take a big move the other way so I got on it late last night. If it had gone to 14 I would have made it a max bet, but I still make it a 12 unit play plus 2 units on the money line.

I won big going against Marshall last week and I didn't see a thing to make me change my mind. Won on La Tech v. Rice on a 6x bet and they looked like they are just peaking.

La Tech +13 x12
Money Line
La Tech x2

What do the rest of you guys on this thread think about that game? Also, what do you think on the total?
 
blood my man we all have real bad weeks it has to happen no matter what crazy things happens int run back for a TD with no time left. you can bet the right team and still lose lets get the bad guy this week the book bol
 
GL Blood. I was on Auburn to for a pretty large play. I still think that was the correct side, and I would play Auburn again at that number if they re-played the contest.
 
Blood, glad to see ya back. I had been looking for ya over in the nhl thread! Hope you keep posting there as well!
Sick em Boy
 
TahoeLegend said:
I thought the Marshall/La Tech line might jump to 14, but I'm hearing rumbles it may take a big move the other way so I got on it late last night. If it had gone to 14 I would have made it a max bet, but I still make it a 12 unit play plus 2 units on the money line.

I won big going against Marshall last week and I didn't see a thing to make me change my mind. Won on La Tech v. Rice on a 6x bet and they looked like they are just peaking.

La Tech +13 x12
Money Line
La Tech x2

What do the rest of you guys on this thread think about that game? Also, what do you think on the total?
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I like Tech also. Sokol's on fire and has a bunch of receivers to throw it to. Tech is tied for 3rd, with 8 other teams, that have six players who have caught at least 20 passes. Their defense is leading the nation in scoring with 150 points, Az. St. is 2nd at 139. In fact the only 2 games they defense didn't convert a turnover to points was against Auburn and So. Miss. As far as a total, both teams scored their season high in their last games. I think the high number reflects this. I've always been a fan of betting unders in big games. Plus, the forecast is calling for rain. I see the majority of bets,80%, favor the over. Hopefully, it will climb even more...
 
Hound, great to see you back, I was more concerned about you than your disappearance here. With you big tonite on CF. Dexter aka Raise.
 
What a wonderful suprise to see this thread, great to see you back at it. Win,lose or draw your threads are aprreciated by many..... so don't a stranger:cheers3:
 
Glad to see you back I hope you nail it but if not, we are all men here so no worries win lo lose
 
apologize for posting and running off. Just got back home and I am two bourbons short from my 5pm quota.
for those of u that follow my thread u may remember that i bought a fixum up house here on the east cost of Fl bout two blocks off the beach and its taking all of my time getting it presentable. har to drive down to daytona and get a couple more big tvs. I had one tv last saturday to try to watch my beloved college ball on and i had sever withdrawal symptoms. by this saturday i should have 3 big screens and one 32 incher set up to keepup with whats going on

looks like this UCF game is setting up to be a defensive game like I thought added a half on the 1st half side above and will be on UCF in 2nd half if a decent # is offered

i had planned on writeups for Fridays games tonite but that will have to wait till in the morn ...my KnobCreek comes 1st and I am behind

105 Northern Illinois* -6 -110 vs Bowling Green 110/100
105 Northern Illinois/Bowling Green* Over 61 -110 110/100
no par on these not in loves with either of these...writeups Fri

Thanks again for all of the comments and well wishes my friends....much appreciated GL
 
Schrute said:
You living part time in the mountains still or you all in for Florida now?
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leaving Fl as soon as it gets hot next april/may timeframe... im an outdoorzy person and I cant take this 95deg temps Dwight...hell, it was 80 damn degs today and thats hot for an old man but after last winter in the mountains with multple day below zero i decided i needs a change
 
Hello my friend! I have missed you! Missed your pick tonight of course...pm me if you want...I'm just working and freezing my ass off up here.
 
Top of the day guys. Thursday nite was a wash for me adding up all the action went 4 and 3 +3.6 and-3.6 but still an exciting game if ur a football fan. Had the side capped correctly but that last TD killed my under and parlay.
Thanks again for all of the comments. If I missed a certain question please let me know. Not much college football left and we all would like to close up shop as winners

Friday
105 Northern Illinois* -6 -110 vs Bowling Green 110/100
105 Northern Illinois/Bowling Green* Over 61 -110 110/100
I am far from calling my self a 'good' MAC capper and I am sure there are many here with more and better thoughts but this is what I see.This is the fifth straight MAC Championship game for No Ill and a chance to avenge last season’s loss to Bowling Green in the title game.A rematch of last year’s MAC Championship game where the Falcons upset the 12-0 Huskies ending their appearance in back-to-back BCS bowls. I dont think either team is as good as last year as BG has been outgained by four ypg in MAC play while NoIll is even averaging 406 YPG on offense and allowing the same 406 on defense in conference play. I think BG rested a bunch of players in their loss to Ball State to get prepared for this so I dont put as much credence in that game.The underdog has covered six straight MAC Championship games and NIU is 0-5 ATS in MAC title game appearances.I think that changes tonite.BG was just 7-5 this season including 5-3 in conference play as the Falcons were nowhere near as impressive as last year’s squad. The same can be said of NIU, a 7-1 team in MAC play but a team that lost badly to Central Mich and caught some breaks in narrow wins over the other MAC West contenders Toledo and W Mich. The Huskies only out-scored opps by 6p/g this season in a 10-1 season and from what I saw they were not often the most impressive team in a loaded MAC West div with four teams that each would be favored over Bowling Green inthis game. The Falcons have a productive up-tempo offense led by a new coaching staff this season but on the year the Falcons have been outscored,ranking 101st in the nation in points allowed allowing almost 33 pts/g. Bowling Green comes into this game with back-to-back losses,actually going 0-3 vs. the MAC West on the season. Last season’s MAC championship win was a blowout for the Falcons playing as an underdog with 574 yards posted in the 47-27 win. So this a revenge spot for NoIllinois but the Huskies were very fortunate last week with a comeback aided by six turnovers. The Huskies do have a consistent rushing attack that can wear teams out but ultimately both teams certainly have some major flaws as this matchup is step down from last season. If one wants to go deep enough to break the positions down which I like to do, then NoIll has the advantage @ QB, WR, RB and O line. I think BG has the advantage with their D line, Lbackers and D backs and prob the kicking game. Hard to judge the coaching staff having note watched all of the games but prob bout even.
Now with all of that said, how is this game going to play out...hell I dont know!! thats why only one Unit on the side and total. I think the revenge factor in college ball is big and since BG prevented a perfect season for NIU last yr there should be plenty of that to go around. I like NIU Offence to put lots of pts on the board but in a game like this U just cant be sure. I think we are looking @ a NoIll win something like 38-28.With that kind of prognostication I would normally have at least a nickle on this side and total but just cant pull the trigger here.

BOL

What do yall Think??
 
Why I don't feel worried for one minute? Because you are one of the best cappers and i know that you will crush the house and still turn a profit even on a bad week!
best of luck my friend. Keep on Crushin!
 
Thanks CG, Hope all is well

adding
108 Arizona U* +10 -138 vs Arizona U for 1st Half 138/100
107 Arizona U* +14½ -110 vs Oregon 110/100

I just cant resist these pts but I put Oregon ML in a couple of parlays
 
107 Arizona U/Oregon* Under 72½ -110 110/100
I have gone back and forth on this total, There is some lose turf on the field which may hinder this total and we know Zona's D has the Ducks number....we'll see
 
just droppin by to say hello my man:shake:

enjoy those mountains....also I think you have done before, but any pics of the views of the Smokies you have would be cool
 
twinkie13 said:
just droppin by to say hello my man:shake:

enjoy those mountains....also I think you have done before, but any pics of the views of the Smokies you have would be cool
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smokymtns from deck, mtn lake 250 miles of shoreline 400ft deep, waterfall across from cabin,stream beside house

th
th
th
th
th
 
2nd half
nothing working for Zona and Im not sure halftime locker rm peptalk will change things
107 Arizona U/Oregon* Under 35 -150 for 2nd Half 150/100
 
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one of my favorite places ever...went there every weekend when i lived in knox.

gl bro
 
good morning fellas, I had NIU capped correctly but should have stayed on the sideline with the Ducks game.Did win the Under but lost the side

the pics dont really do justice to the SmokiesMtns...Zane, just a different kind of beauty from the Rockies, I love both places Rockies are a 'rugged' beauty while the Smokies are kinda 'serene'. I love ur part of the world also

Dog, wish u were still around these parts. I'm sure we could do some damage to a gallon of clear homemade stuff.

Wise, I really think this kind of atmosphere has added yrs to the ole hounds life. I certainty enjoy the lifestyle. There no one here in the mtns to tell me what i can and cant do and the city life's crime was killing me... or me killing it

GL guys
 
blood bol my brother and hit your bookmaker hard on this last day of football nothing more important then health bol
 
Sat plays
Im going thru all of these again this morn tosee if i missed anything
posting @ todays lines, I played some of these earlier at diff #s. I'm posting the #s I feel comfortable with although I know most of U dont buy pts
110 Connecticut* -10 -140 vs SMU 140/100
109 SMU/Connecticut* Under 45½ -135 135/100 prob the bettter play
Not in love with either of these two plays but these two pathetic offenses haven’t really moved the ball on anyone this year. The Mustangs come in ranked 127th in total offense and 128th in scoring offense, putting up a mere 9.8 ppg. For the huskies they come in ranked 123rd in the nation in total offense and 126th in scoring, putting up just 15.1 ppg. Now I know that the Mustang defense has been horrible this year and the UConn defense is below average, but these two offenses have faced bad defenses all year and were still unable to score much. Very hard to see more than 41 points being scored in this game. SMU remained the only winless FBS tm in the nation after their 35-9 home loss to UH. They did have a 9-7 HT lead but were outgained 185-28 in the 3Q and were limited to just 10 FD and 223 ttl yds in the gm. Conn is off a 41-10 loss at Memphis. They were outFD’d 28-14 as Tim Boyle saw his most action of the yr (12-24-160-1-1). While SMU has been horrible TY, their avg conf score is 39-13 while UConn’s avg conf loss isn’t much better at 30-14. SMU has also been more respectable since PS#6 Matt Davis took over and he is their #1 rusher. I can’t lay too many points here with an offensive challenged UConn tm that is avg just 256 ypg and 14 ppg in AAC play and is also 2-9 ATS as a home favorite.
 
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