Championship Sunday Prop Discussion
- Thread starter B.A.R.
- Start date
skanless13
Fly, Eagles, Fly!
Hasn't their kicker barely had ANY fg attempts in the NFL? Thought i remember hearing something like that.
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
I like Tae Adams over on yards, I'm seeing 84.5 at my outs, anyone got any better?
Thing with Sherman is he does still just cover the one side almost all the time, doesnt move around much. 49ers dbs after him arent great man to man and Salah isnt like some DCs where he will just take your best target, he gets his defense to play their way and trusts that.
Rodgers showed last week if hes gonna trust anyone its Tae, he had 11 targets last week on 27 attempts, based on how this game goes, I think he throws it 30+ times, which would mean a very good chance at 10 or more targets, which should give a solid shot to exceed that number
49ers were a zone team mostly this year as well, which is even more important for getting him open
I'm happy to take 84.5, just wondering if anyones seen lower
Also, rodgers o12.5 yards rushing
49ers gonna create pressure for sure, if the front 4 cant get it they will blitz. I dont think you can use a spy vs rodgers, need every defender back there you have as all he needs is an inch to throw someone open. So I see them creating pressure, rodgers is an excellent and smart scrambler, usually he passes but he can move and will run if there is space.
Wilson is a similar style runner and he had 53 and 29 vs sf, I think all he needs is 1 oppo to get this
Thing with Sherman is he does still just cover the one side almost all the time, doesnt move around much. 49ers dbs after him arent great man to man and Salah isnt like some DCs where he will just take your best target, he gets his defense to play their way and trusts that.
Rodgers showed last week if hes gonna trust anyone its Tae, he had 11 targets last week on 27 attempts, based on how this game goes, I think he throws it 30+ times, which would mean a very good chance at 10 or more targets, which should give a solid shot to exceed that number
49ers were a zone team mostly this year as well, which is even more important for getting him open
I'm happy to take 84.5, just wondering if anyones seen lower
Also, rodgers o12.5 yards rushing
49ers gonna create pressure for sure, if the front 4 cant get it they will blitz. I dont think you can use a spy vs rodgers, need every defender back there you have as all he needs is an inch to throw someone open. So I see them creating pressure, rodgers is an excellent and smart scrambler, usually he passes but he can move and will run if there is space.
Wilson is a similar style runner and he had 53 and 29 vs sf, I think all he needs is 1 oppo to get this
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
I know they havent scored on a fg in like 4 or 5 games, and they signed him just before that
Hulu
#3DownNation
He hasn’t had a single attempt in 5 games he’s been there but has been perfect on xp’s And was 17/20 with the browns ly.
To me it’s more about the TEN offense. They just aren’t interested in 3s unless it’s a very specific situation. Their last 24 straight scores have been touchdowns.
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
Sacks under for KC/TN
BenchCoach
Pretty much a regular
TEN un 1.5 FG's is at -170 at all books I use...I parlayed some with Liverpool and played some at -170
scdoggy
Moderator (Honorary)
Dumb question but yardage lost on sacks will be deducted from his rushing total, correct? I see him being on his back a lot in this one. I would be careful on this one. I could se him going down 6 or 7 times behind the line today.
Sacks do not count towards QB rushing numbers in NFL, but it does in NCAAF
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
They are removed from passing totals
Longest FG of game. That's not too shabby.
Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
aaron jones o26.5-115 receiving yds
GB is going to have to counter that pass rush somehow, why not with a couple screen passes. Catches a little juicy at o2.5-150 but I think both hit
GB is going to have to counter that pass rush somehow, why not with a couple screen passes. Catches a little juicy at o2.5-150 but I think both hit
bones
We Must Protect Our Democracy
Under 310.5 pass yards for Mahomes.
If you see Chiefs thumping Titans then late 3td qtr & 4th qtr pass yds for Mahomes should not happen
If you see close game with Tits trying to ground & pound then Mahomes opportunities should be less
If you see Tits scoring via the pass early and then having a lead into 2H they stick with run and limit KC possessions
Mahomes/KC were forced to throw to catch up after early Texans lead and Mahomes was 23/35 for 321
With 8:30 left in 3rd qtr and up 41-21 last week, Mahomes had 115 yds passing rest of game.
Cold & kinda windy and I think under 310.5 @ -115 good wager
If you see Chiefs thumping Titans then late 3td qtr & 4th qtr pass yds for Mahomes should not happen
If you see close game with Tits trying to ground & pound then Mahomes opportunities should be less
If you see Tits scoring via the pass early and then having a lead into 2H they stick with run and limit KC possessions
Mahomes/KC were forced to throw to catch up after early Texans lead and Mahomes was 23/35 for 321
With 8:30 left in 3rd qtr and up 41-21 last week, Mahomes had 115 yds passing rest of game.
Cold & kinda windy and I think under 310.5 @ -115 good wager
pressitup
Leader of the Adult Humor Industry
bones
We Must Protect Our Democracy
My plays in this game FWIW:
Chiefs -6.5 -120 2units (wager made Jan 16)
Titans +7.5 -115 3units (wager made Jan 17)
Mahomes Under 310.5 pass yds -115 2 units (wager made 30 minutes ago, see now juiced to -125)
10 pt Teaser made wager Jan 14th: Under 62.5 Tits/Chiefs...SF +2.5....Under 55 SF/GB for 2 unit
10 pt Teaser made wager Jan 17th: Over 42.5 Tits/Chiefs...GB +17.5...Over 36.5 SF/GB 1 unit
1/2 Unit to win 2 units parlay SF ML/ Tits ML (wager made Jan 15th)
Wanted the game Under, but line has moved agst me to 51.5
I think this game could go either way...thus the attempt at small middle & wagered both sides b/c of doubt and not committed
Chiefs -6.5 -120 2units (wager made Jan 16)
Titans +7.5 -115 3units (wager made Jan 17)
Mahomes Under 310.5 pass yds -115 2 units (wager made 30 minutes ago, see now juiced to -125)
10 pt Teaser made wager Jan 14th: Under 62.5 Tits/Chiefs...SF +2.5....Under 55 SF/GB for 2 unit
10 pt Teaser made wager Jan 17th: Over 42.5 Tits/Chiefs...GB +17.5...Over 36.5 SF/GB 1 unit
1/2 Unit to win 2 units parlay SF ML/ Tits ML (wager made Jan 15th)
Wanted the game Under, but line has moved agst me to 51.5
I think this game could go either way...thus the attempt at small middle & wagered both sides b/c of doubt and not committed
Good luck. Good to see you moved the price on the Mahomes prop
bones
We Must Protect Our Democracy
Posted in wrong thread apologies
aplous
Donkey Hater
pressitup
Leader of the Adult Humor Industry
SanFran/GB first score Other +130
I considered playing both games, a contrarian play, but basically a coin flip decision. If the dog wins the flip, I would think they take the ball. Tenny to keep KC off the field, GB to protect their suspect defense.
Tenny propensity to not kick has kept me off. If SanFran should win the toss and elect to rcv they have more FG's first than any other team.
KC/Tenn Longest FG U45.5 (lost a yard doing research it was 46.5)
I considered playing both games, a contrarian play, but basically a coin flip decision. If the dog wins the flip, I would think they take the ball. Tenny to keep KC off the field, GB to protect their suspect defense.
Tenny propensity to not kick has kept me off. If SanFran should win the toss and elect to rcv they have more FG's first than any other team.
KC/Tenn Longest FG U45.5 (lost a yard doing research it was 46.5)
McCoy Inactive today
A little. But won’t take much to tweet that ankle I don’t think. And I am thinking Titans May Be playing from behind
Humphries was seen limping during practice on Wednesday
pressitup
Leader of the Adult Humor Industry
Will there be a Def/SP/ tm TD(KC/Tenn) Yes +230
Both of these teams have actually scored in this category during the regular season. I show Green Bay to be a zero in this category, unless I missed it.
Me, no. I think that they'll have to pass a lot in the last 22+ minutes.
Which is keeping me off it
pressitup
Leader of the Adult Humor Industry
I've wondered how the Titans LB play of late will effect this.
Trying to find a specific datapoint . Will they blitz more or stick to the TE? I'll never get it done by game time.
C-MAN
Pretty much a regular
Seeing Tevin Coleman rush yds at 46.5. Has anybody seen any indication of the SF running back depth chart? Coleman surprisingly got the bulk of the carries last week. Wondering if that was just a match up thing. Until last week that total would have gone under 9 straight weeks.
Hulu
#3DownNation
Yeah I was. I took under 229.5 a while ago and its dropped a yard since
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
Shanny usually rides the hot hand between the 3, so it's tough to pick one, like you said it hasnt been Coleman in a long time before last week, was mostart
I do wonder though if maybe in the playoffs he rides Coleman more since he has more history with him, may trust him more
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
Coleman TD would be my prop bet on him. He should get short yardage carries
pressitup
Leader of the Adult Humor Industry
Sound reasoning, poor execution.
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