Satyr
Paster of Muppets
CL has been quite successful so far this season (45 units of profit :wacka wacka: ) and I see a lot of value opportunities to cash in on at this point, here are my thoughts. Feel free to comment.
Liverpool plays the worst possible game for Barcelona, 10 men behind ball when defending isn't something high flying Catalans like to face, and it's not just any ordinary team either, but a team that has been playing similar style for a couple of seasons now and created a lot of problems for Chelsea in Cup competitions, not to mention won the CL.
Furthermore, Reds' coach is a Spaniard, if he doesn't know Barca no one does. Barcelona are in a small upswing now with the return of Eto'o but they are still vulnerable and far from saying "we'll go through comfortably".
Pinnacle offers 3.45 on Liverpool to go through and frankly I see a solid opportunity of that to happen. Also note that Liverpool have the 2nd game at home, meaning even a 0:1 defeat at Camp Nou keeps them in contention. Also have in mind Liverpool's 25:2 run in the Premiership up until the last game with Newcastle (lost 2:1), and don't put much focus on the losses against Arsenal, as in Carling Cup they played with combined teams and obviously Paletta and Dudek played AWFULLY, Arsenal scoring 6 on 7 shots(!!?). Similar thing happened 3 days earlier, Liverpool dominated the game and still lost. But this is a different type of game. First of it's a 2 leg match, meaning Liverpool will play in front of their fans to qualify, also Barca will be the one to attack, I expect Xabi's pinpoint passes and Gerrard's impulse to create enough opportunities for Kuyt and Crouch to feast off, and wouldn't write them off as some are doing.
The thing is, Barca are the favorite, but are they THIS better? Perhaps last season, but this season they had some really unconvincing games and lost pace several times, and the odds on Liverpool are HUGE in this case, wouldn't say that this is realistic.
Going in with 4 units.
Other picks:
Valencia to advance @ 2.46 (Pinnacle) 3 units
Valencia are playing excellent football again, after a downtrend which came as a result of missing men from the line-up, they're healthy again and beating every team they face in Primera. Inter's streak is even more impressive, but playing in Italy and facing Serie A teams constantly, plus winning so many games in a row might have created a letdown opportunity. It's very hard to fade a team playing this well, but Valencia are simply too good to miss out on these odds. I'll try to back Valencia at Mestalla that's for sure.
Roma (2.69 @ Pinnacle)
Lyon won today after more than month without a win. Houllier did a similar thing back in his Liverpool days when the team played rather well in his first couple of seasons then began the slide. Lyon were eliminated from the French cup, lost to several teams in French league and barely managed a draw against Nice at home.
The win against Lorient is anything but impressive, the guests missed a 100% chance in the opening minutes, only to see Lyon score and hold on the lead until the end.
Roma, on the other hand, will almost surely beat Lyon at Olimpico, it only depends how they'll handle the away fixture. I don't think Lyon has the power nor momentum now to be favored in this clash, I would expect Roma to step up big here and go through.
6 units.
Outright bets:
I know I know, my fellow Reds' fans will hate me for this, but this is just wrong if you ask me.
Manchester United to win Champions league (9.40) 10 units
As much as I dislike the club I have to give them credit, they've been winning hands down in the Premiership this season and it's hard to believe they'll let Chelsea overtake them in the remaining 11 games. Also, the way they've been playing I am convinced they shouldn't be underdogs against ANY team in Europe right now, not even Barcelona.
Barca and Chelsea are set as the highest favorites to take the crown, which I think is out of place. Barcelona won it last season and we all know how hard it is to win it twice in a row, and Chelsea just don't look all that well at the moment, with all the turbulence going on inside the team. Perhaps they can settle interior problems, but frankly I don't see them outplaying neither Barca not Man Utd in near future.
This is most likely Alex Ferguson's last season at the helm so they might wanna step up big and win it for him. Even if it wasn't for that factor the Red Devils are just RED HOT right now and have been like that throughout the season. They had a small downtrend just as the group stage was about to finish, Benfica even took the lead at Old Trafford, but they're just too strong for everyone at the moment, they blew them clean off 3-1, could've been 5-1 without problems. Cristiano Ronaldo, as much as he is a diver, his impact to the game is HUGE right now and with Rooney and Saha up front, and experienced duo Giggs-Scholes this team can go all the way.
HUGE VALUE(note that I stake 10/10 perhaps 15 times throughout the season, but this is just too good to miss out on, and I'm willing to risk it)
10/10
Liverpool to win Champions league (21.92) 2 units
Trust me, this is NOT a fan based bet, nor is my bet for Liverpool to go through. If you don't trust me on that one, simply skip this preview, or the previous one, if you're really curious why I find these odds too high, read on:
Let's just say that Liverpool can beat Barca. I won't repeat myself, but the fact remains they are a monster 10-3-0 25:3 in front of their fans at the fortress of Anfield in the Premiership. They won the CL group and Rafa has shown once again this is his competition, he did wonders with Valencia, who were a thorn in everyone's eye back then, and is doing the same with Liverpool. Liverpool might not have the depth but they have class. Xabi-Gerrard midfield duo, rock solid Carra-Agger defense (btw if you watched Newcastle-Liverpool you would know how Reina was to blame for the first goal, and another defensive mistake created an opportunity for the Toon, but HOW MANY GAMES IN A ROW was that line simply FLAWLESS? Without any errors, just impeccable. Some would say it was due to inferior opposition. I say ok. But let me ask you something.
Let's say Liverpool eliminate Barcelona. And it's not like it's impossible, they are fully capable of outplaying Barcelona in England, provided they keep it close (1 maybe 2 goals margin after 1st leg).
But let's say they go through. What do you think how will the public and the bookies treat them? European champions from 2 years ago beating the BIGGEST TITLE candidates, kicked out of both domestic cup competitions and probably a fight for the 3rd place in the Premiership. If Liverpool go through their momentum will be HUGE and in that case I expect them to go far, perhaps even the finals. That's why odds 21.92 represent value, and I'll stake 2 units.
Valencia @ 23.82 1 unit
They're playing too well at the moment to pass out on this price, plus they're flying under the radar (with Barca and Real being in focus in Primera and several other teams doing the same in CL). A team with Joaquin, Vicente, Baraja, David Villa and Morientes in form can't be underestimated.
RIP OFFS:
Barcelona @ 4.46
Chelsea @ 4.63
You might be keen on thinking that one of these two teams will win the CL this season but I'm telling you right now: YOU'RE GETTING RIPPED! Taking them at these prices. If you really think they can win it all, don't you think it's better to time your bets well and back them up in games instead of throwing your money away like this?
What are they, Roger Federer of football? MANY teams are rather equally matched, and due to Barca's unconvincing periods this season and Chelsea's struggles plus inside-the-club happening that surely make Mourinho's job harder than it would usually be.
Real Madrid (15.30)
You can't tell me Real Madrid (yes, the same Real Madrid who just invited Beckham back after getting rid of him earlier this year)
are rated somewhat similar as Arsenal (13.9), who have already reached the CL finals last season and have far better team atmosphere and are generally more cohesive than the Galacticos, who are still in transition mode, trying to figure out which way the club should be going.
That's a ripoff if you ask me.
Do we really think Lyon (9.30) can win CL this season? I doubt it. Not after that HORRID run they had in Le Championnat, and it's not that much about the run, but their game was really poor. Plus they, same as Real Madrid, don't have much time at their hands, it's not like they can brush their form for a couple of months, CL quarterfinals are very near.
Lyon are overrated here.
AC Milan (15.00)
What on Earth for? Because of Ronaldo? They have had huge problems with even assembling a team lately, a lot of injuries, veteran players need to carry out the weight alongside the talented Kaka, I just don't think it will be enough to win it all, and they are severely overrated here. Again, compare them to a healthy environment such as Arsenal, with a lot of talented youngsters on the team and compare the prices. Crazy, isn't it?
I've made 45 units so far betting on the Champions league this season and I won't be dissapointed if I lose very single bet here, even though I think that won't happen, there are several good prices here, and I believe all these bets have a shot at cashing in, while I'm not that keen on forcing it at this stage with rather small odds.
Liverpool plays the worst possible game for Barcelona, 10 men behind ball when defending isn't something high flying Catalans like to face, and it's not just any ordinary team either, but a team that has been playing similar style for a couple of seasons now and created a lot of problems for Chelsea in Cup competitions, not to mention won the CL.
Furthermore, Reds' coach is a Spaniard, if he doesn't know Barca no one does. Barcelona are in a small upswing now with the return of Eto'o but they are still vulnerable and far from saying "we'll go through comfortably".
Pinnacle offers 3.45 on Liverpool to go through and frankly I see a solid opportunity of that to happen. Also note that Liverpool have the 2nd game at home, meaning even a 0:1 defeat at Camp Nou keeps them in contention. Also have in mind Liverpool's 25:2 run in the Premiership up until the last game with Newcastle (lost 2:1), and don't put much focus on the losses against Arsenal, as in Carling Cup they played with combined teams and obviously Paletta and Dudek played AWFULLY, Arsenal scoring 6 on 7 shots(!!?). Similar thing happened 3 days earlier, Liverpool dominated the game and still lost. But this is a different type of game. First of it's a 2 leg match, meaning Liverpool will play in front of their fans to qualify, also Barca will be the one to attack, I expect Xabi's pinpoint passes and Gerrard's impulse to create enough opportunities for Kuyt and Crouch to feast off, and wouldn't write them off as some are doing.
The thing is, Barca are the favorite, but are they THIS better? Perhaps last season, but this season they had some really unconvincing games and lost pace several times, and the odds on Liverpool are HUGE in this case, wouldn't say that this is realistic.
Going in with 4 units.
Other picks:
Valencia to advance @ 2.46 (Pinnacle) 3 units
Valencia are playing excellent football again, after a downtrend which came as a result of missing men from the line-up, they're healthy again and beating every team they face in Primera. Inter's streak is even more impressive, but playing in Italy and facing Serie A teams constantly, plus winning so many games in a row might have created a letdown opportunity. It's very hard to fade a team playing this well, but Valencia are simply too good to miss out on these odds. I'll try to back Valencia at Mestalla that's for sure.
Roma (2.69 @ Pinnacle)
Lyon won today after more than month without a win. Houllier did a similar thing back in his Liverpool days when the team played rather well in his first couple of seasons then began the slide. Lyon were eliminated from the French cup, lost to several teams in French league and barely managed a draw against Nice at home.
The win against Lorient is anything but impressive, the guests missed a 100% chance in the opening minutes, only to see Lyon score and hold on the lead until the end.
Roma, on the other hand, will almost surely beat Lyon at Olimpico, it only depends how they'll handle the away fixture. I don't think Lyon has the power nor momentum now to be favored in this clash, I would expect Roma to step up big here and go through.
6 units.
Outright bets:
I know I know, my fellow Reds' fans will hate me for this, but this is just wrong if you ask me.
Manchester United to win Champions league (9.40) 10 units
As much as I dislike the club I have to give them credit, they've been winning hands down in the Premiership this season and it's hard to believe they'll let Chelsea overtake them in the remaining 11 games. Also, the way they've been playing I am convinced they shouldn't be underdogs against ANY team in Europe right now, not even Barcelona.
Barca and Chelsea are set as the highest favorites to take the crown, which I think is out of place. Barcelona won it last season and we all know how hard it is to win it twice in a row, and Chelsea just don't look all that well at the moment, with all the turbulence going on inside the team. Perhaps they can settle interior problems, but frankly I don't see them outplaying neither Barca not Man Utd in near future.
This is most likely Alex Ferguson's last season at the helm so they might wanna step up big and win it for him. Even if it wasn't for that factor the Red Devils are just RED HOT right now and have been like that throughout the season. They had a small downtrend just as the group stage was about to finish, Benfica even took the lead at Old Trafford, but they're just too strong for everyone at the moment, they blew them clean off 3-1, could've been 5-1 without problems. Cristiano Ronaldo, as much as he is a diver, his impact to the game is HUGE right now and with Rooney and Saha up front, and experienced duo Giggs-Scholes this team can go all the way.
HUGE VALUE(note that I stake 10/10 perhaps 15 times throughout the season, but this is just too good to miss out on, and I'm willing to risk it)
10/10
Liverpool to win Champions league (21.92) 2 units
Trust me, this is NOT a fan based bet, nor is my bet for Liverpool to go through. If you don't trust me on that one, simply skip this preview, or the previous one, if you're really curious why I find these odds too high, read on:
Let's just say that Liverpool can beat Barca. I won't repeat myself, but the fact remains they are a monster 10-3-0 25:3 in front of their fans at the fortress of Anfield in the Premiership. They won the CL group and Rafa has shown once again this is his competition, he did wonders with Valencia, who were a thorn in everyone's eye back then, and is doing the same with Liverpool. Liverpool might not have the depth but they have class. Xabi-Gerrard midfield duo, rock solid Carra-Agger defense (btw if you watched Newcastle-Liverpool you would know how Reina was to blame for the first goal, and another defensive mistake created an opportunity for the Toon, but HOW MANY GAMES IN A ROW was that line simply FLAWLESS? Without any errors, just impeccable. Some would say it was due to inferior opposition. I say ok. But let me ask you something.
Let's say Liverpool eliminate Barcelona. And it's not like it's impossible, they are fully capable of outplaying Barcelona in England, provided they keep it close (1 maybe 2 goals margin after 1st leg).
But let's say they go through. What do you think how will the public and the bookies treat them? European champions from 2 years ago beating the BIGGEST TITLE candidates, kicked out of both domestic cup competitions and probably a fight for the 3rd place in the Premiership. If Liverpool go through their momentum will be HUGE and in that case I expect them to go far, perhaps even the finals. That's why odds 21.92 represent value, and I'll stake 2 units.
Valencia @ 23.82 1 unit
They're playing too well at the moment to pass out on this price, plus they're flying under the radar (with Barca and Real being in focus in Primera and several other teams doing the same in CL). A team with Joaquin, Vicente, Baraja, David Villa and Morientes in form can't be underestimated.
RIP OFFS:
Barcelona @ 4.46
Chelsea @ 4.63
You might be keen on thinking that one of these two teams will win the CL this season but I'm telling you right now: YOU'RE GETTING RIPPED! Taking them at these prices. If you really think they can win it all, don't you think it's better to time your bets well and back them up in games instead of throwing your money away like this?
What are they, Roger Federer of football? MANY teams are rather equally matched, and due to Barca's unconvincing periods this season and Chelsea's struggles plus inside-the-club happening that surely make Mourinho's job harder than it would usually be.
Real Madrid (15.30)
You can't tell me Real Madrid (yes, the same Real Madrid who just invited Beckham back after getting rid of him earlier this year)
are rated somewhat similar as Arsenal (13.9), who have already reached the CL finals last season and have far better team atmosphere and are generally more cohesive than the Galacticos, who are still in transition mode, trying to figure out which way the club should be going.
That's a ripoff if you ask me.
Do we really think Lyon (9.30) can win CL this season? I doubt it. Not after that HORRID run they had in Le Championnat, and it's not that much about the run, but their game was really poor. Plus they, same as Real Madrid, don't have much time at their hands, it's not like they can brush their form for a couple of months, CL quarterfinals are very near.
Lyon are overrated here.
AC Milan (15.00)
What on Earth for? Because of Ronaldo? They have had huge problems with even assembling a team lately, a lot of injuries, veteran players need to carry out the weight alongside the talented Kaka, I just don't think it will be enough to win it all, and they are severely overrated here. Again, compare them to a healthy environment such as Arsenal, with a lot of talented youngsters on the team and compare the prices. Crazy, isn't it?
I've made 45 units so far betting on the Champions league this season and I won't be dissapointed if I lose very single bet here, even though I think that won't happen, there are several good prices here, and I believe all these bets have a shot at cashing in, while I'm not that keen on forcing it at this stage with rather small odds.
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