College Football Picks for CFP Semifinals
Miami Hurricanes vs. Ole Miss Rebels
Thursday, January 8, 2026 at 7:30 p.m. ET
It might seem strange that Miami has beaten Ohio State but also lost to Louisville and SMU. What this shows is how widely Miami’s performances vary in accordance with its opponent’s ability to handle its famous pass rush. Ohio State’s quarterback already showed his vulnerability to pass pressure when his team lost to Indiana. So it was predictable to see Miami, which owns the seventh-best sack rate, lock down the Buckeyes’ offense. Conversely, Louisville and SMU were able to negate Miami’s pass rush. You can rewatch both of Miami’s losses and see how Louisville’s quarterback got the ball out quickly, how SMU had enough players blocking for their quarterback so that he could throw downfield instead of relying too heavily on short passes, and how SMU’s quarterback displayed athleticism and pocket presence to position himself to make effective passes downfield.
Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, a second-team All-SEC selection, can be counted on to accomplish what Louisville and SMU’s respective quarterbacks did. Ole Miss’ offense has the additional advantage of playing fast – the Rebels run the eleventh-most plays per game. Their tempo will wear out Miami’s pass rush. When Chambliss does face pressure, he has proven to be an incredible escape artist – this was visible in Chambliss’ athletic movements in the face of Georgia’s different blitzes. Because of his specific skill set, Ole Miss also faced an Oklahoma team in Norman whose defense ranks second in sack rate and scored 34 points.
As evident in his PFF grades, Chambliss is even better under pressure than he is with a clean pocket. His ability to negate Miami’s defensive strength – its ability to apply pressure – and his big play potential will ensure a high point total from the Rebels. Despite facing Georgia – easily a top-ten defense if it hadn’t faced Ole Miss – twice, Ole Miss has scored 30 or more points in each of its last eight games. Count on this game to be the ninth.
Ole Miss might look like a sure win based on the above analysis of its offense. The Rebels’ defense superficially appears decent when you look at the fact that it frequently held opposing offenses to below 30 points. But Ole Miss benefited from getting to face several quarterbacks that ranked in the bottom half in the SEC in quarterback rating. When Ole Miss faced quarterbacks who ranked in the upper half in the SEC in quarterback rating, the Rebels allowed over 30 points to Arkansas and Georgia (x2). Miami quarterback Carson Beck ranks number one in the ACC in quarterback rating and is therefore certainly good enough to punish a soft Ole Miss defense. When folks think of Miami, they think of its defense, but Miami ended its regular season by scoring 34 or more points in four straight blowout wins. Beck has been very productive and efficient for a long time now, plus he has the support of a running back who with his 5.3 YPC mirrors the success of Ole Miss’ All-SEC First-Team running back.
Both offenses will push each other to attain a high scoring output against a defense that they are well-equipped to thrive against. For the above reasons, I recommend Over 52 at -110 with BetOnline.
Oregon Ducks vs. Indiana Hoosiers
Friday, January 9, 2026 at 7:30 p.m. ET
This is a rematch of a regular season game, way back on October 11, in which Indiana beat Oregon. It is very difficult to defeat a good team twice. In the three rematches in these playoffs, the team that won the first meeting is 1-2 in the rematch. Alabama beat Oklahoma and Ole Miss beat Georgia. Only Ole Miss won both times, but the Rebels were playing a Group of Five team whom they had already blown out in the regular season. Folks talk about how great Indiana’s head coach is, but consider, for example, how great the mismatch was between Ole Miss’ former defensive coordinator who was newly promoted to head coach in an emergency situation and Georgia head coach Kirby Smart, a two-time national champion.
The team that lost the first meeting has a huge psychological and preparational advantage in the rematch. One obvious adjustment that Oregon will make is that the Ducks will run more. In the first meeting, Oregon’s top three running backs averaged 7.4, 5.4, and 5.7 YPC, respectively. Most importantly, quarterback Dante Moore will be way prepared for this game. Indiana made him uncertain in the pocket, leading him to vacate even a secure pocket. Indiana’s defense confused Moore, leading him to hold onto the ball and miss open targets. Not only will Moore rewatch the October 11 game to see what Indiana did, but he already prepared for it by facing defenses that watched and replicated what Indiana’s defense did to him. Whereas Moore was seeing an entirely new beast on October 11, in this rematch he’ll be well-prepared and comfortable against a familiar foe. Moore achieved a 252.8 (not a typo!) passer rating in the game after his team’s loss to Indiana, so there is clearly a beneficial sort of emotion in play for him. Expect him to be at his very best.
It will be easier for Moore to face what Indiana’s defense does because his offensive line has improved by making positional adjustments, he has become able to rely on a greater number of wide receivers, and his offense has come to find its identity in running the ball, which it already did very well against Indiana’s defense. Expect Oregon to leverage its rushing success much more effectively, to rely on its quick pass attack with much more success as a result of Moore’s experience against Indiana’s sort of pass coverage and pass rush, and to hit those open targets downfield as a result of Moore’s improved composure and excellent accuracy – he’s completing over 70 percent of his passes.
As for Oregon’s outlook on defense, its three-high shell equips the Ducks to limit Indiana’s pass attack, which relies heavily on RPOs. When Indiana’s quarterback played against Oregon, he predictably had the worst passer rating of his season since his season-opener. Indiana got to 30 points by wearing down Oregon and scoring late, but Oregon’s improved offense will generate more time of possession for itself and secure more rest for its defense. Indeed, the Hoosiers failed to exceed 20 points against either of the top-nine scoring defenses (Iowa, Ohio State) that they faced in the regular season. Oregon’s defense is focused after its embarrassing playoff opener, most recently shutting out Texas Tech's seventh-ranked scoring offense. Playing as well as it can, expect Oregon’s sixth-ranked scoring defense to hold Indiana below 20 points. I’m seeing a 27-17 Oregon victory. Therefore, wager on Ducks +4 at -110 with BetOnline.
Miami Hurricanes vs. Ole Miss Rebels
Thursday, January 8, 2026 at 7:30 p.m. ET
It might seem strange that Miami has beaten Ohio State but also lost to Louisville and SMU. What this shows is how widely Miami’s performances vary in accordance with its opponent’s ability to handle its famous pass rush. Ohio State’s quarterback already showed his vulnerability to pass pressure when his team lost to Indiana. So it was predictable to see Miami, which owns the seventh-best sack rate, lock down the Buckeyes’ offense. Conversely, Louisville and SMU were able to negate Miami’s pass rush. You can rewatch both of Miami’s losses and see how Louisville’s quarterback got the ball out quickly, how SMU had enough players blocking for their quarterback so that he could throw downfield instead of relying too heavily on short passes, and how SMU’s quarterback displayed athleticism and pocket presence to position himself to make effective passes downfield.
Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, a second-team All-SEC selection, can be counted on to accomplish what Louisville and SMU’s respective quarterbacks did. Ole Miss’ offense has the additional advantage of playing fast – the Rebels run the eleventh-most plays per game. Their tempo will wear out Miami’s pass rush. When Chambliss does face pressure, he has proven to be an incredible escape artist – this was visible in Chambliss’ athletic movements in the face of Georgia’s different blitzes. Because of his specific skill set, Ole Miss also faced an Oklahoma team in Norman whose defense ranks second in sack rate and scored 34 points.
As evident in his PFF grades, Chambliss is even better under pressure than he is with a clean pocket. His ability to negate Miami’s defensive strength – its ability to apply pressure – and his big play potential will ensure a high point total from the Rebels. Despite facing Georgia – easily a top-ten defense if it hadn’t faced Ole Miss – twice, Ole Miss has scored 30 or more points in each of its last eight games. Count on this game to be the ninth.
Ole Miss might look like a sure win based on the above analysis of its offense. The Rebels’ defense superficially appears decent when you look at the fact that it frequently held opposing offenses to below 30 points. But Ole Miss benefited from getting to face several quarterbacks that ranked in the bottom half in the SEC in quarterback rating. When Ole Miss faced quarterbacks who ranked in the upper half in the SEC in quarterback rating, the Rebels allowed over 30 points to Arkansas and Georgia (x2). Miami quarterback Carson Beck ranks number one in the ACC in quarterback rating and is therefore certainly good enough to punish a soft Ole Miss defense. When folks think of Miami, they think of its defense, but Miami ended its regular season by scoring 34 or more points in four straight blowout wins. Beck has been very productive and efficient for a long time now, plus he has the support of a running back who with his 5.3 YPC mirrors the success of Ole Miss’ All-SEC First-Team running back.
Both offenses will push each other to attain a high scoring output against a defense that they are well-equipped to thrive against. For the above reasons, I recommend Over 52 at -110 with BetOnline.
Oregon Ducks vs. Indiana Hoosiers
Friday, January 9, 2026 at 7:30 p.m. ET
This is a rematch of a regular season game, way back on October 11, in which Indiana beat Oregon. It is very difficult to defeat a good team twice. In the three rematches in these playoffs, the team that won the first meeting is 1-2 in the rematch. Alabama beat Oklahoma and Ole Miss beat Georgia. Only Ole Miss won both times, but the Rebels were playing a Group of Five team whom they had already blown out in the regular season. Folks talk about how great Indiana’s head coach is, but consider, for example, how great the mismatch was between Ole Miss’ former defensive coordinator who was newly promoted to head coach in an emergency situation and Georgia head coach Kirby Smart, a two-time national champion.
The team that lost the first meeting has a huge psychological and preparational advantage in the rematch. One obvious adjustment that Oregon will make is that the Ducks will run more. In the first meeting, Oregon’s top three running backs averaged 7.4, 5.4, and 5.7 YPC, respectively. Most importantly, quarterback Dante Moore will be way prepared for this game. Indiana made him uncertain in the pocket, leading him to vacate even a secure pocket. Indiana’s defense confused Moore, leading him to hold onto the ball and miss open targets. Not only will Moore rewatch the October 11 game to see what Indiana did, but he already prepared for it by facing defenses that watched and replicated what Indiana’s defense did to him. Whereas Moore was seeing an entirely new beast on October 11, in this rematch he’ll be well-prepared and comfortable against a familiar foe. Moore achieved a 252.8 (not a typo!) passer rating in the game after his team’s loss to Indiana, so there is clearly a beneficial sort of emotion in play for him. Expect him to be at his very best.
It will be easier for Moore to face what Indiana’s defense does because his offensive line has improved by making positional adjustments, he has become able to rely on a greater number of wide receivers, and his offense has come to find its identity in running the ball, which it already did very well against Indiana’s defense. Expect Oregon to leverage its rushing success much more effectively, to rely on its quick pass attack with much more success as a result of Moore’s experience against Indiana’s sort of pass coverage and pass rush, and to hit those open targets downfield as a result of Moore’s improved composure and excellent accuracy – he’s completing over 70 percent of his passes.
As for Oregon’s outlook on defense, its three-high shell equips the Ducks to limit Indiana’s pass attack, which relies heavily on RPOs. When Indiana’s quarterback played against Oregon, he predictably had the worst passer rating of his season since his season-opener. Indiana got to 30 points by wearing down Oregon and scoring late, but Oregon’s improved offense will generate more time of possession for itself and secure more rest for its defense. Indeed, the Hoosiers failed to exceed 20 points against either of the top-nine scoring defenses (Iowa, Ohio State) that they faced in the regular season. Oregon’s defense is focused after its embarrassing playoff opener, most recently shutting out Texas Tech's seventh-ranked scoring offense. Playing as well as it can, expect Oregon’s sixth-ranked scoring defense to hold Indiana below 20 points. I’m seeing a 27-17 Oregon victory. Therefore, wager on Ducks +4 at -110 with BetOnline.
