College Football Picks for CFP Quarterfinal
Miami Hurricanes vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Wednesday, December 31 at 7:30 p.m. ET
Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin cruised through much of his regular season schedule because he rarely had to encounter serious pressure. It is not a coincidence that his team’s one loss came to an Indiana team that ranks 14th in sack percentage. With five sacks, they showed what defenses can accomplish when their pass rush succeeds against Ohio State. Pass rush is also the same tool that Michigan relied on in previous years to lock down an Ohio State offense that is loaded with talent at the skill positions. It is this level of talent that explains why the Buckeyes always get favored, so the opposing pass rush becomes an immense source of betting value because it is what allows underdogs to defeat them.
I like Miami because the Hurricanes can be counted on to use their pass rush to muck up this game and to prevent the Buckeyes from scoring enough points to cover the spread. Per PFF, the Hurricanes have two of the nation’s five highest-graded pass rushers and the nation’s second-highest-graded defensive line. They used their pass rush in Round 1 to hold the Aggies to three points, which is nearly 30 points below their season average. Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor combined for 4.5 sacks and 18 pressures. They are ready to help stifle Ohio State’s offense. Led by Jim Thorpe Award semifinalist Keionte Scott, Miami’s secondary will complement its pass rush.
Miami’s offense only scored ten points against the Aggies because its kicker, who had missed two kicks all season, suffered an off day. Carson Beck is an experienced quarterback who converts over 70 percent of his passes, injecting balance into an offense that wants to lean on its rush attack. Mark Fletcher Jr., who ran for 172 yards against Texas A&M, and the uniquely shifty Malachi Toney give the Hurricanes big-play talent, which is decisive in lower-scoring games.
All Miami really needs is 13 points to stay within a touchdown. It easily has the requisite skill on offense, which will also be supported by its high-ranking ability to force turnovers and by Ohio State’s struggle to sustain drives. The Hurricanes will limit Ohio State’s offense with their overwhelming pass rush and solid secondary. Wager, therefore, on Miami +9.5 at -110 with BetOnline.
Oregon Ducks vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Thursday, December 25, 2025 at noon ET
It’s very alarming that Oregon in the first round surrendered 34 points and 509 yards to a James Madison team that, in the regular season, failed to remain competitive against the one Power 4 squad (Louisville) that it faced. Texas Tech, ranking ninth in total offense, will obviously pose a tougher test for Oregon’s defense. If this line of reasoning feels too simplistic because you, like Oregon fans, insist that the Ducks gave up so many yards and points to James Madison because they lost focus with a big lead, then consider what their defense had shown in the regular season. They faced two other top-15 offenses, USC and Indiana. In those games, USC accumulated 27 points while Indiana amassed 30 points. Both USC and Indiana were disadvantaged by having to play in Oregon’s venue. Texas Tech has the ninth-ranked offense, which is led by the efficient Behren Morton with his 22 touchdowns to 4 interceptions, a stacked group of pass-catchers, and two running backs who average 5.5 YPC and have combined for almost 1,900 rushing yards. At a neutral site, Texas Tech will have no problem reaching 30 points against Oregon.
Texas Tech also boasts the second-ranked defense. Impressively, the Red Raiders held Utah, which owns the fifth-ranked offense, to ten points. They used millions of NIL dollars to create an elite defensive line that is stacked both on the edges and in the interior, resulting in them being one of the top teams at achieving sacks and pressures. This matters because Northwestern, for example, was able to hold Oregon’s quarterback to 178 passing yards because of its pass pressure. Texas Tech will achieve greater pass pressure with which to complement its number one-ranking run defense. Oregon failed to exceed 20 points against the two top-ten Big Ten defenses that it has faced and now faces its toughest matchup of the season.
Oregon’s proven struggles against high-ranking offenses – even a James Madison one that played a weak schedule – justify the expectation of a high Texas Tech scoring output. Texas Tech’s proven ability to limit high-ranking offenses, with its elite pass rush and run defense, will make it easy for its offense to outscore Oregon’s. I’m seeing a 30-20 Texas Tech win here. Wager, therefore, on Texas Tech ML at +100 with BetOnline
Miami Hurricanes vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Wednesday, December 31 at 7:30 p.m. ET
Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin cruised through much of his regular season schedule because he rarely had to encounter serious pressure. It is not a coincidence that his team’s one loss came to an Indiana team that ranks 14th in sack percentage. With five sacks, they showed what defenses can accomplish when their pass rush succeeds against Ohio State. Pass rush is also the same tool that Michigan relied on in previous years to lock down an Ohio State offense that is loaded with talent at the skill positions. It is this level of talent that explains why the Buckeyes always get favored, so the opposing pass rush becomes an immense source of betting value because it is what allows underdogs to defeat them.
I like Miami because the Hurricanes can be counted on to use their pass rush to muck up this game and to prevent the Buckeyes from scoring enough points to cover the spread. Per PFF, the Hurricanes have two of the nation’s five highest-graded pass rushers and the nation’s second-highest-graded defensive line. They used their pass rush in Round 1 to hold the Aggies to three points, which is nearly 30 points below their season average. Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor combined for 4.5 sacks and 18 pressures. They are ready to help stifle Ohio State’s offense. Led by Jim Thorpe Award semifinalist Keionte Scott, Miami’s secondary will complement its pass rush.
Miami’s offense only scored ten points against the Aggies because its kicker, who had missed two kicks all season, suffered an off day. Carson Beck is an experienced quarterback who converts over 70 percent of his passes, injecting balance into an offense that wants to lean on its rush attack. Mark Fletcher Jr., who ran for 172 yards against Texas A&M, and the uniquely shifty Malachi Toney give the Hurricanes big-play talent, which is decisive in lower-scoring games.
All Miami really needs is 13 points to stay within a touchdown. It easily has the requisite skill on offense, which will also be supported by its high-ranking ability to force turnovers and by Ohio State’s struggle to sustain drives. The Hurricanes will limit Ohio State’s offense with their overwhelming pass rush and solid secondary. Wager, therefore, on Miami +9.5 at -110 with BetOnline.
Oregon Ducks vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Thursday, December 25, 2025 at noon ET
It’s very alarming that Oregon in the first round surrendered 34 points and 509 yards to a James Madison team that, in the regular season, failed to remain competitive against the one Power 4 squad (Louisville) that it faced. Texas Tech, ranking ninth in total offense, will obviously pose a tougher test for Oregon’s defense. If this line of reasoning feels too simplistic because you, like Oregon fans, insist that the Ducks gave up so many yards and points to James Madison because they lost focus with a big lead, then consider what their defense had shown in the regular season. They faced two other top-15 offenses, USC and Indiana. In those games, USC accumulated 27 points while Indiana amassed 30 points. Both USC and Indiana were disadvantaged by having to play in Oregon’s venue. Texas Tech has the ninth-ranked offense, which is led by the efficient Behren Morton with his 22 touchdowns to 4 interceptions, a stacked group of pass-catchers, and two running backs who average 5.5 YPC and have combined for almost 1,900 rushing yards. At a neutral site, Texas Tech will have no problem reaching 30 points against Oregon.
Texas Tech also boasts the second-ranked defense. Impressively, the Red Raiders held Utah, which owns the fifth-ranked offense, to ten points. They used millions of NIL dollars to create an elite defensive line that is stacked both on the edges and in the interior, resulting in them being one of the top teams at achieving sacks and pressures. This matters because Northwestern, for example, was able to hold Oregon’s quarterback to 178 passing yards because of its pass pressure. Texas Tech will achieve greater pass pressure with which to complement its number one-ranking run defense. Oregon failed to exceed 20 points against the two top-ten Big Ten defenses that it has faced and now faces its toughest matchup of the season.
Oregon’s proven struggles against high-ranking offenses – even a James Madison one that played a weak schedule – justify the expectation of a high Texas Tech scoring output. Texas Tech’s proven ability to limit high-ranking offenses, with its elite pass rush and run defense, will make it easy for its offense to outscore Oregon’s. I’m seeing a 30-20 Texas Tech win here. Wager, therefore, on Texas Tech ML at +100 with BetOnline
