CFL Syndicate 2025

spottie2935 said:
I noticed this for today and agree BC -2.5 is the play.

The photo shows that Hamilton has not lost any 4th quarters on the season
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I made the line 3 so I agree there's value on the -2.5 and I have BC in the back end of a parlay so I'll stick with that.

Hamilton is on an impressive 4 game win streak but who have they beaten? Montreal at home was a good win but it was vs MBT in his first start off the bench with his new team. Otherwise, it was Toronto on an off night for Arbuckle and the helpless Redblacks twice, knocking out their QB in the second game so Crum had to finish it. Not seeing a lot of impressive wins there. The cats defence has improved and Bo has settled down his wild throwing so the offence is clicking but I still think this is only an average team.

With BC, I see Rourke coming into his own since he returned from injury. His numbers over the past 3 games are an impressive 75/107 70%, 345yds/gm, 6 TDs to 3 INTs. 9.8 yards/att too which is fairly high. The game is slowing down and he's making very fast reads and getting the ball out which negates their poor OL play. The comeback win at Montreal was impressive and then they trashed Edmonton as they should. They lost to a good Sask team at home but that was without a number of key defensive players. But their DL is finally back at full strength and their defence which looked horrid to start the season has slowly solidified. Its not great, but I think its now good enough to let Rourke outscore opponents. I have BC 1.5pts above average and while they will struggle against the top teams, they should be able to best the teams below them on most nights.

BC is a tough road trip for any eastern team although with this being a 4pm local start, at least the cats don't have to deal with their circadian rhythms being messed with for this tilt. I really want my cats to win and hold first place in the east but my capping gut says BC wins this. Adding a half unit to the half unit I already have them in the back end of a parlay with Sask.

0.5* BC Lions ML -136
 
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Ok this total has gotten ridiculously out of control. Despite these teams reputation as high flying offences, it really hasn't played out so far this season. BC's average score with Rourke in the lineup is 48.9. When you take out that ridiculous 80 point outlier game vs the Argos, Hamilton's avg game score has been 51. These teams do put up a shit ton of passing yards but their redzone efficiency is well below the league median.

BC relies on the rush quite a bit and with Butler, its effective but it also eats clock. Hamilton hasn't run so much but their bellcoe back Greg Bell has been out. He returns tonight which should result in a few more rush att for the cats. With BC's rush defence being league-worst by a long stretch while their passing defence is top-3 so I would think Hamilton will try to lean more on the rush tonight.

I made this total 52.5 but now that it's going up, up, up I can't not take it.

BC has only had 1 game go over this number this year. Hamilton has only had 2. This total is being set by perception, not reality.

1* HAM / BC under 57 -111
 
In what must be a CFL first, 3 players were hurt in automobile accidents this past week.

In Toronto, T Ryan Hunter was riding an e-scooter downtown and was hit by a car, forcing him onto the 6 game injured list.

In BC, WR Stanley Berryhill was also forced off the road by a car while riding an e-scooter to practice and scraped up his hands badly although he was able to play last night.

And finally, Sask G Zack Fry was also in a car accident that put him on the 1 game injured list.

What a bizarre coincidence.
 
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Results through Week 8

Sides 4-9 -6.415*
Totals 3-7 -5.94*
Parlays 3-4 +0.75*
Live 6-9 +1.055*

Overall 16-29 -10.556*

3-4 but picked up just over a unit thanks to the big ML live bet on Montreal. At this rate, I'll be back to break even by the Grey Cup!

Futures working well at least.


Futures
0.5* Hamilton to win season series vs Toronto +200 - Hamilton leads 1-0, next game labour day
0.25* Ottawa under 10.5 RSW -104 - 1-6 after week 7
0.5* BC Lions to win Grey Cup +750
0.2* Hamilton to win Grey Cup +1000 - not looking as dumb as it once did
0.25* Justin McInnis under 1200.5 rec yards - 385 yards through 8 games - on pace for 866 yds
0.25* Shemar Bridges under 1050.5 rec yards - 100 yards through 7 games - on pace for 257 yds
 
Hulu said:
In what must be a CFL first, 3 players were hurt in automobile accidents this past week.

In Toronto, T Ryan Hunter was riding an e-scooter downtown and was hit by a car, forcing him onto the 6 game injured list.

In BC, WR Stanley Berryhill was also forced off the road by a car while riding an e-scooter to practice and scraped up his hands badly although he was able to play last night.

And finally, Sask G Zack Fry was also in a car accident that put him on the 1 game injured list.

What a bizarre coincidence.
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To be fair e-scooters are a fairly new phenomenon and can easily see more of this happening down the road
 
This week all dogs and this might regress this week but I’ll say the dogs are back to normal now that’s 2 indicators for me:

This week 4-0 and since week 3 is one indicator
The other indicator is the amount of points scored and the totals increasing.

Yes there are a lot of qb injuries and that’s something to consider but the points are still accumulating for both teams and that’s very important

I will say this it was rare to have Edmonton cover as they and Ottawa are currently on a 40% ATS streak for a few seasons running. I’m off these teams. The rest of the teams are mostly going back and forth and that’s exactly what I want to see.

Still overs as the totals have not exhausted but last nights teams should start slowing down over 57 is excellent for unders going forward. The balance is coming back.


WPG is also showing signs or regression. They were indicated to cover. In past seasons they should have been closer or not as many as -3 last week. I stay away because I was confused and by passing I missed an opportunity but now my mind sees what should have been happening long ago.


Now it’s time to put all this together and keep going.


2-0 last week as I make sure I keep going north, get it ? 😀
 
I saw your record Hulu and I’ve seen you start slow before. You’re hard working talented and too smart not to improve.

Im super confident and believe. Just continue to be selective as you are and stay on course. If there is anything I can share just ask.

If you have a question please like one of my posts so the red notification light shows up.
 
spottie2935 said:
I saw your record Hulu and I’ve seen you start slow before. You’re hard working talented and too smart not to improve.

Im super confident and believe. Just continue to be selective as you are and stay on course. If there is anything I can share just ask.

If you have a question please like one of my posts so the red notification light shows up.
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Appreciate it man. Last year I was 4 units down after week 20 and went on to pick up 10 units by the end of the grey cup so its definitely do-able. Just have to keep sticking to what works and like you advised: let the bets come to me, don't force it.
 
I like all the home dogs this week but especially Ottawa.

There is a good chance that VAj is out for this game and if he is, the +4.5 is a free roll because PJ Walker hasn't shown us a thing yet. But even if he isn't, Calgary is really banged up otherwise. Aside from all the receivers they already have on the DL, Alford looks to be out and Philpot has been missing practice. On ther defensive side, Adrian Greene hasn't practiced this week and neither has his backup Ben Labrosse. As good as Calgary has looked, once they lost Alford last week, even VAj was having trouble moving the ball. You can only lose so many bodies at one position before you are putting scrubs on the field and that's where Calgary is at I think. If PJ Waker starts the under and TT under will also be good plays.

Edmonton is also tempting but I don't know that I cn be them whan Hamilton is so hot. Last week Fajardo injected some life into their moribund offence, that is, when he wasn;t being sacked. But I don't see Hamilton getting the kind of pressure that Sask did so I think he may have some better success this week. Hamilton on the second game of a west road trip and off a big comeback win in BC.

And why would you dog Montreal at home? Sure they are starting MBT but he is more than capable and their defence is still league best.
 
ok talked myself into it...

1* Ottawa +4.5 -110

If I find out VAj is out, I will be adding on side and ML if still available.
 
I am passing on Elks and Redblacks. I’d would second guess myself risking money on low win teams at home when the lines are small.

It’s in grained in my head that these favorites are looming. On the other hand this could be the season to ignore balance until later in the year and keep riding the dogs until I fight back week.

I’m sorting this out and looking for an under.
 
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