CFL Syndicate 2025

sjmartin57ca said:
EDMONTON — The Edmonton Elks have made a change at quarterback.

Cody Fajardo has been listed as the team’s starting pivot on their official depth chart issued on Thursday ahead of their Week 8 meeting with the Saskatchewan Roughriders.
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I think it had to be done. Not only is he a more capable, consistent QB but the team will also get the message. Things are changing.

I made this game 8.5 with Ford at QB. How much of an upgrade is Fajardo? Not huge but I would say 2-2.5 pts. Even 2 would make my line 6.5. With it still sitting at 9, I think there is definite value there, pending injury reports etc.

@Teapot9 you knew about this all along didn't you. Switching your fandom from Sask to Edmonton was about Fajardo, nothing more. Its ok to admit you have a man crush on him.
 
Oh geez, just checked the depth charts. Elks lost 2 DBs last week and will be forced to start a rookie at corner as well as a new safety. That is never good. Even with the QB change, I don't know if I can back the Elks.

Sask is shuffling their OL with the loss of LT Johnson but is otherwise in tact.
 
Looking to Saturday, I am warming up to Toronto after seeing the injury reports.

Winnipeg is missing a couple of starting OL including Stanley Bryant who is a top-2 tackle. Also missing is DL Jamal Woods.

Toronto gets a slew of players back from injury including OL Darius Ciraco to help shore up the OL. RB Dionte Mcmahon also coming back to help with the running game. On defence, the league defensive MOP (IMO) Wynton McManis returns. They're not off a bye but a 9 day week which is the next best thing.

I made the line 4 early in the week. It opened 2.5 and I considered WPG but held off. Now that I see these injury reports and the line is still 5, the value has to be on Toronto.

I am going to wait it out to see if just maybe we get a 6 as the public piles on WPG closer to kickoff. Its asymmetric risk...it the number goes to 4 I haven't lost much but if it goes to 6, I've gained a whole lot.
 
Plays :
Montreal +7 Calgary with 3 outstanding big covers against the line the last 3 weeks I feel the line adjusted here too much and if they do cover this week eventually it’s going to regress. We’ll see what the consensus is next week.

WPG qualifies but I don’t like the line, my hope is Wpg at sone point is a dog but if that’s the case how bad are they or how many injuries ? I guess wha t I need is Wpg to cover and then pull back like they can’t sustain success. They are favorites almost always so it’s hard to find a spot against them every week. I think their losing streak and pull back is on the horizon. Head into next season trending down.
 
I don't know what made me remember this today but glad to see its on youtube. I remember watching this as a kid. Coldest game in CFL history. Officially -21.3C with insane winds and snow. Edmonton won it but they had 5 players end up with frostbite.

 
Edmonton +9.5 for me tonight. Couple weeks to prep and playing the better QB IMO. SSK has been good but playing a bit over their skis. Expect a close one here.
 
WxPG has data support tonight in some cases so I’m not even looking I got my weekly units and a favorite is going to hit. Can’t fade WPG and BC can’t get consistent. In general I love BC but I love them as dogs. They need failures but it is what it is. Hulu on BC so tonight I’m a BC 🦁 Lion. Let’s go
 
@spottie do you have numbers on Edmonton scoring by quarter this year? And also league scoring by quarter this season?

It just seems like edmonton is always coming from behind and scoring in the 4th. I thought it was a Tre Ford thing but it happened again last night with fajardo too.
 
I keep trying chatgpt for these type of things but no matter how I prompt, the data is always bad. It lists games in 2026 that don't even exist yet with scores and stats and everything. Very strange.
 
Hulu said:
@spottie do you have numbers on Edmonton scoring by quarter this year? And also league scoring by quarter this season?

It just seems like edmonton is always coming from behind and scoring in the 4th. I thought it was a Tre Ford thing but it happened again last night with fajardo too.
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I’ll go check
 
spottie2935 said:
Kick off time where the game takes place.
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So only 3. I would have guessed twice that.

Anyway, I've always thought really hot weather helps the under a bit as well. I know when I played and it was over 90 say, the QB would always take extra time in the huddle to let the outside receivers catch their breath. Now we weren't pro level atheletes but I suspect even in the pros, hot weather slows down the offense just a bit.
 
Some of the data is stale on the total lines because Edmonton and Ottawa are so terrible

before last year for Ottawa and it’s still happening for Edmonton both these teams don’t score and that’s why the favorites ats record again then are hitting 60% the last 2 seasons
 
Here on the piss poor teams

Edmonton is trash at home because the line adjustment for home games is too much. They can’t score so when the line adjustment they can’t compete
 

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This a league of favorites and with the bombers losing 2 bad games in a row the winners swing to the advantage of the favorites. Then also being in the road in most cases the line adjustment lower to help the better team cover.

I always lean road teams because bad teams home field isn’t much of a factor is at all and with lines moving as a standard and not a case by case it provides opportunities
 
Wow Winnipeg up to -6 tonight. A lot of people expecting them to bounce back. I can't get there at this price. Good luck to those playing the game tonight.
 
JohnnyGambler said:
Wow Winnipeg up to -6 tonight. A lot of people expecting them to bounce back. I can't get there at this price. Good luck to those playing the game tonight.
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At 6 I think there's more value on Toronto but I'm not rushing to bet them because you never know what you're going to get from Arbuckle
 
I noticed this for today and agree BC -2.5 is the play.

The photo shows that Hamilton has not lost any 4th quarters on the season
 

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spottie2935 said:
Heating up Hulu. Nice unders

The 4th quarter scores are evening out.
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Yes things are regressing to historical values. The scores are starting to come down, not so much because defences are improving but more so that every team except for Hamilton has been forced to start their backup QB at some point.

Every total moved up from the opener this week and here we are 3-0 to the under so far. The market over corrected.
 
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