CFB Week 9

Yanks27Sox9

Yanks27Sox9

CTG Partner
Already recapped the previous weekend in detail at the end of last week's thread, so not gonna get into it all again. Went 7-7, down .9 of a unit. Tired of these .500 weeks stalling the growth of my football season. Nevertheless, turning the page and moving onto the new week is all we can do...no matter how much time/work we put into this stuff, we just gotta keep at it and remain focused on the next task at hand. Anyhow, as always, will update this 1st post as I make plays during the week.



Saturday 10/26
Oregon (-20) @ -115 for 1
Oregon 1H (-13.5) @ -115 for 3/4
SJST (-6) for 3/4
Arizona/Colorado over 58 for 3/4
Fresno St/SDST over 61.5 for 3/4
Missouri (-2.5) for 1
UCF(-11.5) to NIU(-19) to FSU(-20) to UofL(-8.5) for 1 to win 1
OSU(+11) to Stanford/OSU over 49.5 for 1.1 to win 1
Utah (+6) for 3/4
Clemson 1H TT over 20 @ +100 for 3/4
Boston College (+7) @ -120 for 1/2
Cal/Washington under 67.5 for 1/2



Week #1: 11-5, +5.835
Week #2: 5-1, +4.450
Week #3: 9-5, +2.675
Week #4: 7-7, -0.075
Week #5: 6-6, +0.650
Week #6: 6-3-1, +3.600
Week #7: 5-5, -0.400
Week #8: 7-7, -0.900
YTD: 56-39-1, +15.835


Good luck this weekend!!! :cheers:
 
Last edited:
one post from last week's thread, for updating purposes...

fuck me...that was not the Saturday I had imagined, capped, or planned for...dammit. honestly, it feels like i got my ass kicked today...even though the final tally was 7-7, down .9 of a unit. not happy at all, especially with a few of my totals.


anyways, updated record after Week 8...

Week #1: 11-5, +5.835
Week #2: 5-1, +4.450
Week #3: 9-5, +2.675
Week #4: 7-7, -0.075
Week #5: 6-6, +0.650
Week #6: 6-3-1, +3.600
Week #7: 5-5, -0.400
Week #8: 7-7, -0.900
YTD: 56-39-1, +15.835


still avoiding the horribly bad week, i guess...but these .500 saturdays...4 of them now...have really put the breaks on growing this into a great season.

be back in a bit to recap things...mainly where i went wrong today. :(
 
my PR #s aren't updated yet, so i wasn't ready for jump any lines that may have been off...but as soon as i saw the Oregon/UCLA line this morning, i played it. just wish i could've gotten it at an even better number, but i wasn't that quick &/or awake yet.
with little league winter ball, sunday mornings have gotten too busy...so i tweeted the play versus logging on to post it. the line's still at 21, so not a big difference. and fwiw, i would play this all the way up to -27...as i think the Ducks win by more than 4 TDs.

anyhow...

Oregon (-20) @ -115 for 1

i'll be watching the line/news/etc too this week, as i'm pretty sure i'll be adding to this play. unfortunately for the Bruins, i think this will look at lot like the 2010 trip up north...so it should warrant a larger than normal play, imho. either that, or i'll add the Duck TT.

will get into it more later...but this play has nothing to do with UCLA, sort of speaking. obviously, i love the team. it's just a horrible spot for them, thanks in large part to the washington st/oregon game last night.
oregon was extremely sloppy on both sides of the ball last night at their homecoming game. as a result, you know they're gonna button shit up...get things working on all cylinders again...then go into their bye week, and prepare for Stanford.
like my tweet suggested, expect the Ducks to be very salty. their defense is pissed...not just because of the passing yards Wash St accumulated, but because they did a lot of it late...in garbage time, according to their defensive coordinator...against backups. the dude was pretty pissed at Leach for throwing it until the last snap, and said as much after the game. but i give Leach credit, as he's trying to build a program. nevertheless, what Wash St did will have that Duck defense fully focused...for probably a full 4 quarters...against UCLA. and the Oregon offense will be extremely focused as well. mariota had two costly, yet sloppy fumbles, leading directly to Wash St TDs. that won't happen again...and we all know that he doesn't throw picks.
anyways, i'm being quick...but the bottom line here is that due to the uncharacteristic mistakes and overall sloppiness we saw from Oregon in the Washington St game, i believe we'll see the Oregon Ducks at their very best this Saturday against UCLA. call it bad timing for my Bruins, or whatever...but UCLA will unfortunately be used as nothing more than a tune-up game for Stanford...and we'll see (what's imo) the best team in college football this year look the part, like a finely oiled/tuned machine.

sure wish it would've been UCLA that was the fortunate team to catch the Ducks in such a sloppy performance, but i guess it wasn't meant to be. instead, imo, they catch the Ducks at the absolute worst point...thanks to last night.
and on top of that, with UCLA in the midst of back to back road trips north, Oregon is just WAY healthier than the Bruins are right now...especially if Thomas returns, as expected.
so the much healthier, more talented, and now the more focused/determined/experienced team at home...with a definite goal/purpose in mind...damn, i had no choice but to jump on Oregon this week against the Bruins.
 
anyhow, gotta get back to updating things. maintaining PR #s can wear on you, lol. but should be back at some point tomorrow with more.

happy capping :shake:
 
Ducks up to -23 pts. Should've hit it again at -21 last night.
Like I said, it's a good play up to -27...but if it's on your radar, getting it before -24 would be the wise decision.
 
still working on things, but my PR #s are updated. gonna share the top and bottom again. and note that UCLA should only be an 18 pt dog by these #s, considering the HFA that i'm giving Oregon. (but again, my play is situational...thx to wazzou for pissing off the strongest guy in the room.)

anyhow, here are my Top 20...


[TABLE="width: 192"]
<colgroup><col><col></colgroup><tbody>[TR]
[TD]116.84[/TD]
[TD]Alabama
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]116.08[/TD]
[TD]Oregon
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]115.03[/TD]
[TD]Florida State
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]114.27[/TD]
[TD]Baylor
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]107.30[/TD]
[TD]Stanford
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]107.07[/TD]
[TD]Arizona State
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]106.52[/TD]
[TD]LSU
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]105.34[/TD]
[TD]Ohio State
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]105.21[/TD]
[TD]Wisconsin
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]104.39[/TD]
[TD]Missouri
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]103.54[/TD]
[TD]South Carolina
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]103.48[/TD]
[TD]Texas A&M
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]102.68[/TD]
[TD]Clemson
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]102.48[/TD]
[TD]UCLA
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]102.41[/TD]
[TD]Miami-FL
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]102.20[/TD]
[TD]Oklahoma State
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]101.67[/TD]
[TD]Louisville
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]101.59[/TD]
[TD]Georgia
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]101.55[/TD]
[TD]Oregon State
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]101.30[/TD]
[TD]BYU
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


and if i were doing a poll, the top four is exactly how i'd have it as of today. would need to make some changes beginning at 5 and 6 though. but that's a different exercise/animal.
 
The furd game was a shame. Just sitting there waiting to be won and they couldn't manage it. Came down to the miracle catch and the miracle fumble recovery by hogan early. Furd just made the plays where we couldn't.

Im excited to see the defense vs oregon. See how we stack up vs the very best.

Impossible to cap the bruin offense right now with all the injuries but particularly cuz brendel was fuckin up every other snap again like he did vs Utah.

If we had our full oline Id have given us a fighters chance to pull the upset. But considering the context of gameday and the oline issues i can see how this has the potential to get out of hand. That said, I think Hundley bounces back and the defense gives Oregon the most resistance (not saying much, i know) they've faced yet to keep it under 3 tds.
 
and here are the Bottom 10...


[TABLE="width: 192"]
<colgroup><col><col></colgroup><tbody>[TR]
[TD]67.25[/TD]
[TD]UTEP[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]65.80[/TD]
[TD]Massachusetts[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]63.95[/TD]
[TD]So Mississippi[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]63.91[/TD]
[TD]WesternMichigan
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]63.58[/TD]
[TD]Eastern Michigan [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]63.14[/TD]
[TD]Miami-OH[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]62.31[/TD]
[TD]FIU[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]60.90[/TD]
[TD]Idaho [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]56.65[/TD]
[TD]NewMexicoState
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]55.13[/TD]
[TD]Georgia State[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


look at the MAC representing. ;)
 
sportjunky said:
The furd game was a shame. Just sitting there waiting to be won and they couldn't manage it. Came down to the miracle catch and the miracle fumble recovery by hogan early. Furd just made the plays where we couldn't.

Im excited to see the defense vs oregon. See how we stack up vs the very best.

Impossible to cap the bruin offense right now with all the injuries but particularly cuz brendel was fuckin up every other snap again like he did vs Utah.

If we had our full oline Id have given us a fighters chance to pull the upset. But considering the context of gameday and the oline issues i can see how this has the potential to get out of hand. That said, I think Hundley bounces back and the defense gives Oregon the most resistance (not saying much, i know) they've faced yet to keep it under 3 tds.
Click to expand...

that was the catch of the year. but you're right...a lot of potential turning points in a game waiting to be won.

if we were a bit healthier...and wazzou didn't piss off oregon last week...i woulda bet ucla here. it could've been a great spot had things lined up right. instead, at least imo, they've lined up totally the other way.
 
just one more addition for now...

SJST (-6) for 3/4

coming off a bye, getting a bit healthier, and fales looking better. both of their last opponents were colorado st, and the varying results tell quite a story imo. anyhow, made san jose an 11 pt home favorite...so like the line value as well.

speaking of line value...
i hate 9am starts on the east coast, but why is rutgers a 7 pt fav over houston? (i make it 1.5 for the home team.) is there an injury i'm missing? or anything other than the start? hmm.
 
totals are out. UCLA/Oregon LV opener was 76.5...but by the time it was available to me, it was pounded down to 70.5 pts. was almost enough of an over-correction to bite. may come back to this, but i've kinda got other plans to add to this game later.

Pac-12 overs are enticing again this week...maybe a little too enticing though. But there was one other total that came out, then was pushed down...so that when it was available to me, i couldn't resist making a play on the points.

another addition...

Arizona/Colorado over 58 for 3/4

last two years saw 77 and 87 points, respectively, in this series.
 
well, shit...after a few of my totals blew the hell up last saturday, i kinda feel like a sucker here...but i've got another addition (over) out west...

Fresno St/SDST over 61.5 for 3/4

btw, i was wrong with that UCLA/Oregon opener. i wrote down a point less...it was really pushed down from a 77.5 total.
and this Mountain West baby was pushed down from a 65 pt opener.

i know how off my total was with fresno st last week. but we all know carr can chuck it...and they simply weren't pushed by a unlv team that quit/hardly tried 2nd half.
san diego will push them though. just look at the last two years, leads changing hands...and last yr surpassing 90 points. anyhow, good offenses...not so good defenses...see another back & forth game...as fresno, outside of the rutgers game, has been scoring more on the road...where sdst has been doing a lot of their scoring at home.
 
Thoughts on Oregon St? I love this team - no recognition all year. They have a statement game this week as a home dog against a team who might not be able to keep up with Oregon St.'s speed.
 
Gorg said:
Thoughts on Oregon St? I love this team - no recognition all year. They have a statement game this week as a home dog against a team who might not be able to keep up with Oregon St.'s speed.
Click to expand...

i'll come back to this later tonight, gorg, with a more detailed response.

for now, i lean to the beavers...but the line totally got away from me. when it came out, i was hoping it would climb to a flat 7...but damn, has it gone the other way.
and in all honesty, i'm not sold enough on the side to chase the line like that. still figuring out how i'll play this game.

i made stanford a 2.5 fav, fwiw. and imo, neither side has a "situational" edge in this spot. yeah, stanford is off the ucla game...but they have a bye on deck, then the ducks. oregon st has had 3 easy opponents in a row. actually 4, but sdst moved the ball very well on them. anyways, it's the following week that takes away from this being a statement game. short week on deck...and they might prefer beating USC.

you're right about the lack of recognition for that passing offense though. that one dimension (as excellent as it's been) is all that's really worth mentioning though.
 
Yanks27Sox7 said:
speaking of line value...
i hate 9am starts on the east coast, but why is rutgers a 7 pt fav over houston? (i make it 1.5 for the home team.) is there an injury i'm missing? or anything other than the start? hmm.
Click to expand...

It will just be 11am for Houston and they've played at 11am their time 2 other times this year...at Temple and vs Memphis.

So doubt time effects the line much. I don't know the line doesn't seem too far off in my opinion, would Rutgers at Houston 'pick' be about right? Rut was -4 at SMU.
 
s--k said:
It will just be 11am for Houston and they've played at 11am their time 2 other times this year...at Temple and vs Memphis.

So doubt time effects the line much. I don't know the line doesn't seem too far off in my opinion, would Rutgers at Houston 'pick' be about right? Rut was -4 at SMU.
Click to expand...

something about this game i don't trust.

my PR #s make rutgers a 1.5 home fav...houston a 1.5 fav on a neutral field...and houston would be a 4.5 fav if they were at home. but that's just my #s.
 
Yanks27Sox7 said:
i'll come back to this later tonight, gorg, with a more detailed response.

for now, i lean to the beavers...but the line totally got away from me. when it came out, i was hoping it would climb to a flat 7...but damn, has it gone the other way.
and in all honesty, i'm not sold enough on the side to chase the line like that. still figuring out how i'll play this game.

i made stanford a 2.5 fav, fwiw. and imo, neither side has a "situational" edge in this spot. yeah, stanford is off the ucla game...but they have a bye on deck, then the ducks. oregon st has had 3 easy opponents in a row. actually 4, but sdst moved the ball very well on them. anyways, it's the following week that takes away from this being a statement game. short week on deck...and they might prefer beating USC.

you're right about the lack of recognition for that passing offense though. that one dimension (as excellent as it's been) is all that's really worth mentioning though.
Click to expand...

ok, a bit more on this game.

i'd need the line up around +7 to play the beavers. 3 to 4 isn't good enough. besides what i've already mentioned, here are my concerns regarding oregon st.

- other than utah, the beavs haven't played a good/tough team all season yet. so we don't really know how their lines will hold up in the trenches against stanford.
utah's a common opponent, and can provide a few clues...but that utah team wasn't the same team that beat stanford. i watched that game vs the beavs, and their defense was garbage that night.
anyhow, we know that stanford can be thrown on at times. but will this great beaver passing game have the time for mannion to be successful? and if so, to what degree...compared to the mostly cupcakes (lessor pass rushes) he's faced to date?

- stanford's played a much tougher schedule. they've got a bye then oregon, so may wanna tune up for the big game too. but possible they look ahead a bit, i guess, after ucla. woulda been a sandwich, minus the bye week.
anyhow, even though the beavs are better, we kinda saw how stanford handled a one-dimensional offense when they played wazzou...another common opponent. yeah, the beavs are better thru the air...but stanford still did very well only having to worry about one dimension to an offense.

- oregon st's defense is suspect. throw out week one against ewu as an abnormality. but still, having watched both the utah and sdst games, i don't have much confidence that they can handle the stanford offense like utah did a couple weeks back.
and believe me...i think hogan, and price for that matter, have been playing well below par for them. still, the beavs haven't proven they can stop a decent team.

i keep coming back to the trenches though, which is why i'd need the cushion of about 7 pts to take the beavers. and fwiw, i trust the beaver o-line more than their d-line. but if being honest, we just don't know until they're battle tested by an opponent like this.
also, ASU is > OSU...better defense, more well-rounded offense, etc...and that was a game, especially the 1st half, where stanford was just dominate.

again, situationally, i don't see an edge for either team. the bye should negate the sandwich, and having usc on deck for a short week is a factor too.

gonna keep looking at this game. need to see the various options when they come out. but if you push me, right now, i'd probably tease the beavs to the over...since the line has moved so much since sunday.
 
backing a very hot team that's gotten revenge, for losses last season, 3 weeks in a row...and counting...vandy, georgia, florida, and now against south carolina. so an addition...

Missouri (-2.5) for 1

i know it's circumstance, as things fell apart last year...but how often do you see a revenge streak like this, lol.

anyhow...i get the home team...on homecoming...playing the better defense...with the better backup QB...on a helluva streak right now. (both starting QBs are questionable, but neither should play this weekend...short of a possible "motivational" appearance for a play or two.) and the icing on the cake (imo) is that this is the 3rd road game in a row (w/out a bye) for Scary.

the line is spot on compared to my PR #s. this is a situational play, obviously.
 
like that missouri play was leaning but might ride out with ya..ty and great insight.
 
boom...another addition...

Oregon 1H (-13.5) @ -115 for 3/4

just fuckin came out. been waiting since yesterday. but here's part two to this game.
 
GL this week john. Keep it up, all tha hard work in tha offseason on ur numbers has been payin off.

:shake:
 
Agree about the number and the loss of value. But THIS is a statement game. This is the game to win more so than next week. Thanks for insight and gl
 
tru said:
GL this week john. Keep it up, all tha hard work in tha offseason on ur numbers has been payin off.

:shake:
Click to expand...

thanks, mike. these .500 weekends are disappointing...but maybe all that work is keeping me from a couple much worse weekends. who knows.
:cheers:



Gorg said:
Agree about the number and the loss of value. But THIS is a statement game. This is the game to win more so than next week. Thanks for insight and gl
Click to expand...

maybe so. it's hard to quantify. obviously, they wanna win both. but at least imo, i think they really enjoy getting over on USC in games up north.

i'm still undecided, fwiw. so much line value gone. and playing a kind of devil's advocate for stanford (a few posts above) messed things up in my head, lol.
 
last addition for this afternoon...a big, fat teaser of some heavy favs that i liked...as did Dr Bob with 3 of them...

UCF(-11.5) to NIU(-19) to FSU(-20) to UofL(-8.5) for 1 to win 1

my PR lines for the 4 games...UCF -25.5, NIU -32, FSU -35.5, & UofL -21.5 pts.

UConn's just a bad team...EMU is gawdawful...FSU is in a sandwich spot, but this is as big of a revenge game as possible, since NCST ruined last year for the Noles...and USF is a very bad team too, where Louisville needs a bounce back.

Anyhow, glossing over shit...cuz it's not worth the time...but you guys know me, in that I've always got at least one of these types of teasers going every week.
 
tres mas...

OSU(+11) to Stanford/OSU over 49.5 for 1.1 to win 1
Utah (+6) for 3/4
Clemson 1H TT over 20 @ +100 for 3/4

figured out how i was gonna play the beavers, since the line had gotten away from me. (suggested i'd do this in my reply to gorg.) anyhow, 99% of the time, the teasers i play (including the 4 teamer the other day) are 'ties reduce.' however, this beaver teaser is 'ties win.' obviously it doesn't effect the 2nd portion, but i paid a bit extra just in case it lands on 11 pts for the side. hopefully, for all our sakes, it's not close to that though. :) nevertheless, i've already talked enough about this game...including playing devil's advocate for the Stanford side...so i'll let it be for now.

both utah and usc are banged up. this play was made under the assumption (with the hope) that travis wilson is a go for the utes. read somewhere that the trojans had less then 40 players active for a practice the other day. and i've got the feeling they tank against a more focused, better coached, squad as soon as they get popped in the mouth once or twice. tbh, only think usc beats cal & colorado the rest of the way. but to be safe, i took the points versus taking a shot on the money line. this is also somewhat of a sandwich between notre dame and oregon st, so unsure if utah will have their full focus/attention...as they should...assuming USC still could be that consistent at this point. anyway, utah's got a bye on deck...and will look way better then they did against arizona, coming off the stanford upset.

lastly, the clemson team total for the 1st half. the terps, as we all know, have been decimated by injuries. i picked the 1st half TT for a few reasons, vs the other available options. the line had gotten away from me, which has been a familiar story this week. i think clemson comes out strong, trying to remove the memory of the FSU ass-raping as quickly as possible. the terps shouldn't be able to stop them from scoring at any point in the game...but in case clemson takes their foot off the pedal, i like 1H compared to the game. and i like the team total vs laying -9.5 pts for the 1st half, because i don't trust the tiger defense right now. anyhow, in last year's meeting, clemson led 35-7 at the half. 35-7 at the half was also the score of clemson's last road game at syracuse. and even wake forest held a 24-3 halftime lead last week over maryland. so what i'm betting here is that if wake can throw up 24 in a half against a depleted terp defense, then clemson certainly can as well. and considering last week's humiliation, they should have all the motivation they need to be up & ready to roll at kickoff.


a couple remaining leans...
- UW...another game where a decent line is long gone, so looking at other options (under).
- BC...so many i read are making me look at this game again, but would want 7 points.
 
short of adding a prop or two...like on that new Buffalo QB...my last two additions for the week (see remaining leans from post above)...

Boston College (+7) @ -120 for 1/2
Cal/Washington under 67.5 for 1/2

both small plays, but wanted a little something on these games. BC is basically following much of what i've read over the course of the week, tailing others plays on the game. And the under may be contrarian, considering Cal's defense/etc, but i obviously think it has merit...and goes way beyond the history of the matchup. Said it before...like with Hogan much of this year, Price has simply underperformed...and he's still dinged up. He'll play, but the thumb/hand should still be an issue. And if he's not going to be solid throwing the ball, it becomes a bit easier to limit Sankey. On the other side, as we've gotten into conference play, Goff has really come down to earth...basically looking his age. Dykes team will have success in the future, but for now they're reeling...only 0-7 team ATS, i think...and even Sonny's facial expressions (of disgust) during games are becoming comical. in any case, it looks more like a 38-13 kinda game to me.
 
^^ thanks, D8 and Dwight. :cheers:

---------------------


Well, unfortunately, it appears as if I've become a fuckin' .500 player lately. Ended up 6-6, .49 of a unit to the bad.
That's 3 gotdamned weeks in a row of finishing at the .500 mark, and 5 out of 9 weeks this season. Unreal, and sick.


Updated record...

Week #1: 11-5, +5.835
Week #2: 5-1, +4.450
Week #3: 9-5, +2.675
Week #4: 7-7, -0.075
Week #5: 6-6, +0.650
Week #6: 6-3-1, +3.600
Week #7: 5-5, -0.400
Week #8: 7-7, -0.900
Week #9: 6-6, -0.490
YTD: 62-45-1, +15.345
 
just gonna recap a little bit, as i'm done with this week & the .500 bullshit.

UCLA/Oregon. Won the game, lost the 1st half. But damn, that was hard to watch...rooting against myself. For almost 3 full quarters, UCLA was every bit as good as Oregon. The future is bright in Westwood.

Arizona/Colorado. Bit of a rough start, but the takeaway is that the Buffs finally have their QB of the future. Take note for 2014 and beyond.

Scary/Missouri. What a moose. This game pissed me off the most. 17-0 lead going to the 4th quarter. The senile ole ball coach brings in Shaw, and Mizzou forgets how to play defense...let alone kick a fuckin' field goal. Should've known with Pinkel that it couldn't last. But not just the missed FGs...the 4th down TD in OT was unforgivable by that secondary. Anyhow, Mizzou just tanked...and gave away what should've been a comfortable home win.

Utah/USC. Just ugly. USC still sucks though.

BC. Always happens when I blindly tail something.

Cal/Washington. Just that I'm starting to feel sorry for Sonny and the Bears.
 
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