JPicks
Pretty much a regular
Someone tell me what restaurant this is so I can eat there tonight.
from Card Chronicle by Mike Rutherford
Someone tell me what restaurant this is so I can eat there tonight.
Now that's funny. GL this week RJ.
CFB Week 9 (10/21-10/26) News and Picks
- Thread starter RJ Esq
- Start date
Now that's funny. GL this week RJ.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
Thursday Headlinin': Free Kenny Stabler (and Eric Berry, too)
from Dr. Saturday - NCAAF - Yahoo! Sports by Matt Hinton
• The Snake is an innocent man. A stunning legal development Wednesday out of Alabama:
• You can't deny what the people want to be true. There was indeed a University of Tennessee plane in Raleigh Sunday, and give us a break with this "U.S.-Japan conference" nonsense. That's awfully close to the new stomping grounds of longtime Vol offensive coordinator David Cutcliffe, who's on the verge of matching Ted Roof's entire four-year win total at Duke in his first year. Why else would a UT plane cross state lines?
Cutcliffe called those rumors "completely silly," but does this sound like a denial?:
Meanwhile, back in quasi-reality, desperate measures against Alabama could finally lead to long-rumored shotgun appearance by safety Eric Berry, who played quarterback in high school, has practiced some with UT quarterbacks and said Wednesday he might show up on offense for the first time against the Tide. What Berry brings that the incumbent shotgun scramble specialist, Gerald Jones, doesn't, I don't know, but certainly this is very exciting.
• Just let the man do his job. It's good to see after all these decades that likely JoePa successor Tom Bradley still has the utmost respect for his ailing boss:
Quickly ... West Virginia has no idea what to expect from Auburn's offense tonight in Morgantown. . . . Stalking Colt McCoy's girlfriend with Deadspin, and Colt says he'll be back for his senior year at Texas, if that was actually in question. . . . USC's Damien Williams is playing against Arizona, no matter what doctors, coaches or anyone else says. Plus a quick look at the motley collection of quarterbacks that have lined up across from the Trojans in the first six games. . . . A knee injury gave Tyson Lee has an easy out, but Mississippi State's quarterback took full responsibility for the killer interceptions against Tennessee. . . . Mike Ditka has a few ideas for making the game safer at Pitt's practice. . . . And say what you will about Cincinnati QB Tony Pike, but even Brett Favre never played with a broken arm.
from Dr. Saturday - NCAAF - Yahoo! Sports by Matt Hinton
ROBERTSDALE, Ala. (AP) — Former Alabama and NFL quarterback Ken Stabler has been found not guilty of drunken driving charges in south Alabama.
[...]
After more than three hours of testimony, acting Municipal Judge James Sweet issued his verdict.
"I just don't think the city has met its burden of proof," Sweet said.
The officer in the case said Stabler's "speech was a little bit slurred and I could detect a strong odor of alcohol," and, in the understatement of Roll Bama Roll, Stabler has long been a notorious drinker. This was his third DUI arrest, and he's attributed with the eternal 'Bama lament, "All I wanna do is drive around in my truck and drink Jack Daniels ... and [ex-wives] just don't understand." All told, you might have though just being Ken Stabler was burden of proof in itself. But hey, God bless America. Newly validated, The Snake should be be back in the Tide broadcast booth soon.[...]
After more than three hours of testimony, acting Municipal Judge James Sweet issued his verdict.
"I just don't think the city has met its burden of proof," Sweet said.
• You can't deny what the people want to be true. There was indeed a University of Tennessee plane in Raleigh Sunday, and give us a break with this "U.S.-Japan conference" nonsense. That's awfully close to the new stomping grounds of longtime Vol offensive coordinator David Cutcliffe, who's on the verge of matching Ted Roof's entire four-year win total at Duke in his first year. Why else would a UT plane cross state lines?
Cutcliffe called those rumors "completely silly," but does this sound like a denial?:
“I don’t think anything is going to happen to Coach Fulmer,” Cutclife said of his close friend and former boss. “I’m not even going to speculate on that. He’s such a good friend it would hurt me even to speculate.”
Just like Fulmer was good friends with Johnny Majors and it pained him to take over the job in the middle of the season in 1991, right, coach? Yeah. We read you. Loud and clear.
Meanwhile, back in quasi-reality, desperate measures against Alabama could finally lead to long-rumored shotgun appearance by safety Eric Berry, who played quarterback in high school, has practiced some with UT quarterbacks and said Wednesday he might show up on offense for the first time against the Tide. What Berry brings that the incumbent shotgun scramble specialist, Gerald Jones, doesn't, I don't know, but certainly this is very exciting.
• Just let the man do his job. It's good to see after all these decades that likely JoePa successor Tom Bradley still has the utmost respect for his ailing boss:
With Paterno away from the sideline, Bradley has taken the lead role among the assistants, dealing with officials and penalties and calling timeouts. He also took the lead when Paterno missed time with a broken leg two years ago.
[...]
“He’s right there on the headset,” Bradley said. “The only difference is that when he’s on the field and he wants to get you, he’s right there. When he’s in the box and he’s yelling, you can always pretend you didn’t here [sic] what he said. ‘Hey coach you’re breaking up.’"
This is why there's no hurry for the legend to step aside. They just need to get those darn headsets working![...]
“He’s right there on the headset,” Bradley said. “The only difference is that when he’s on the field and he wants to get you, he’s right there. When he’s in the box and he’s yelling, you can always pretend you didn’t here [sic] what he said. ‘Hey coach you’re breaking up.’"
Quickly ... West Virginia has no idea what to expect from Auburn's offense tonight in Morgantown. . . . Stalking Colt McCoy's girlfriend with Deadspin, and Colt says he'll be back for his senior year at Texas, if that was actually in question. . . . USC's Damien Williams is playing against Arizona, no matter what doctors, coaches or anyone else says. Plus a quick look at the motley collection of quarterbacks that have lined up across from the Trojans in the first six games. . . . A knee injury gave Tyson Lee has an easy out, but Mississippi State's quarterback took full responsibility for the killer interceptions against Tennessee. . . . Mike Ditka has a few ideas for making the game safer at Pitt's practice. . . . And say what you will about Cincinnati QB Tony Pike, but even Brett Favre never played with a broken arm.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
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Morning Coffee Gets Colt Crazy
from Burnt Orange Nation by GhostofBigRoy
Relentless pursuit of perfection. Colt McCoy hasn't just approached perfection on Saturdays, but during the week of practice as well. Actually, he hasn't just approached perfection, according to Greg Davis he has actually achieved it. Once each during the OU and Missouri game weeks McCoy completed every pass he attempted in practice. Twice more during the Missouri game week McCoy only had one incomplete pass in each practice. No wonder McCoy is completing more than 80% of his passes and only needs to complete 63.12% of his passes for the rest of the season to break Daunte Culpepper's NCAA mark of 73.6%. I can't even think of any apt comparisons for what McCoy is doing right now simply because I've never seen anything like it. What a truly amazing season for the baby-faced country boy from Tuscola.
Return of MyBoy? Tip of the hat to juarez1729 for discovering the little nugget on espn.com that Colt McCoy plans on returning for his senior season. In the words of the man his own self:
McCoy '08. I just cant talk enough about Colt McCoy. I'm about to run out of superlatives here. I can say that the Heisman pose looks pretty good. In some ways the picture is great though because the Heisman pose in essence a good football move. It's not just the stiff arm that's about to happen to some poor fool. It's the ball positioning, held with all three points of contact. It's the bent knees, ready to explode into the open field. Okay, so maybe I haven't run out of superlatives.
Receiving depth spotted on the football field. After the OU game, it wasn't just the fans who were disappointed that Malcolm Williams couldn't haul in the nearly-perfectly thrown deep ball from Colt McCoy. The young receiver himself was disappointed, asking McCoy for some extra practice on high throws.
Notice anything like that against Missouri? McCoy put the ball up into some traffic, but he gave Williams a chance to go up and make a play on it, just like they had practiced, and Williams brought it in, just like they had practiced. Brandon Collins made his long play on another adjustment practiced with his quarterback, this time a sight adjustment slant on the blitz. The young receiver who didn't catch a pass in the game, but threw a nice block for Colt McCoy? James Kirkendoll. But he was the guy after the game who said he cared more about the team than not catching a pass after Brown apologized for not getting him the ball. As the season goes on and defenses commit more resources to stop Cosby and Shipley, expect the growing rapport between receivers and quarterback to lead to some big plays for the young'uns.
Series straight out the Wild West. Strange, strange things have happened recently between Oklahoma State and Texas in football. It follows the same basic pattern: The Longhorns get down early, then come roaring back. How roaring? Try 48 unanswered in 2003, followed by 49 unanswered in 2004, followed by 48 straight points in 2005, followed by 24 straights points last year in the fourth quarter to win. Think maybe Okie lite has developed a complex about that? History suggests DKR will be the scene of a wild and wacky football game on Saturday, but I expect the Longhorns to get off to a strong start, with the kind of clock-killing, confidence shattering march down the field that characterizes this football team. Perhaps Mack Brown will even consider departing from his strategy of deferring to the second half and take the football first. Trips Right took a look at the OSU/Mizzou drive charts and concluded that they bode well for Longhorn success. Mizzou went on three drives of nine plays or more, while Okie lite relied on the type of big plays that Will Muschamp refuses to allow. See the one explosive play by Missouri against Texas, which I believe came against the second-team defense. Getting off to a fast start and burying Okie lite early has the added benefit of forcing the Big 12's best ground game to take to the air. And you don't want to be one-dimensional against a Muschamp defense.
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</td><td class="cc c">11:43 AM (24 minutes ago)
Morning Coffee Gets Colt Crazy
from Burnt Orange Nation by GhostofBigRoy
Relentless pursuit of perfection. Colt McCoy hasn't just approached perfection on Saturdays, but during the week of practice as well. Actually, he hasn't just approached perfection, according to Greg Davis he has actually achieved it. Once each during the OU and Missouri game weeks McCoy completed every pass he attempted in practice. Twice more during the Missouri game week McCoy only had one incomplete pass in each practice. No wonder McCoy is completing more than 80% of his passes and only needs to complete 63.12% of his passes for the rest of the season to break Daunte Culpepper's NCAA mark of 73.6%. I can't even think of any apt comparisons for what McCoy is doing right now simply because I've never seen anything like it. What a truly amazing season for the baby-faced country boy from Tuscola.
Return of MyBoy? Tip of the hat to juarez1729 for discovering the little nugget on espn.com that Colt McCoy plans on returning for his senior season. In the words of the man his own self:
I'm going to play here for four years. I've been blessed to be able to play here. Not very many people get to [start] here for four years, so what an opportunity. And if the NFL is there for me, then I hope that I'll get to keep playing, because I love to play this game. Hopefully, it will work out.
While there is no doubt that McCoy means what he says, this isn't the first time that Longhorn fans have heard this story from players before they bolted to the professional level. Everyone from TJ Ford to Vince Young to DJ Augustin to Kevin Durant to Jamaal Charles have uttered the same statements about returning to school, but changed their minds when staring millions of dollars in the face and weighing their chances of injury. McCoy is a different case because I'm not sure that NFL scouts view him on the same level as professional scouts saw the other players, but these things do change after the season. There's a significant chance that McCoy will be returning for a championship run in 2009.
McCoy '08. I just cant talk enough about Colt McCoy. I'm about to run out of superlatives here. I can say that the Heisman pose looks pretty good. In some ways the picture is great though because the Heisman pose in essence a good football move. It's not just the stiff arm that's about to happen to some poor fool. It's the ball positioning, held with all three points of contact. It's the bent knees, ready to explode into the open field. Okay, so maybe I haven't run out of superlatives.
via assets.sbnation.com
Not all of the Longhorn faithful are buying into McCoy's candidacy, though. PB is understandably lukewarm about it. Many Longhorn fans regard the Heisman with some disdain after Reggie Bush won it over Vince Young and rightfully so, because Vince deserved that trophy. If you look at some of the clowns who won the Heisman, Chris Weinke, Jason White, Danny Wuerffel, Gino Toretta and the like, you realize it doesn't really mean much to be in the company of those football players. Even ESPN called Vince Young one of the ten best football players ever. But not a Heisman winner? No one in their right mind would take any of the aforementioned Hesiman winners over Vince. Well, maybe Merrill Hoge, but that guy's just demented (too many concussions). But no Heisman for Vince. Despite all that, here's why I want Colt to win the Heisman: If McCoy wins the Heisman, I see the Longhorns being undefeated. And being undefeated means a chance at that crystal football everyone wants to hold up at the end of the year. A loss not only seriously hurts McCoy's candidacy, it also makes a national championship berth that much more unlikely, depending on if Penn State or Alabama loses. So here's my take: I want a Heisman for Colt McCoy as the Longhorns stampede their way into the national championship game.Receiving depth spotted on the football field. After the OU game, it wasn't just the fans who were disappointed that Malcolm Williams couldn't haul in the nearly-perfectly thrown deep ball from Colt McCoy. The young receiver himself was disappointed, asking McCoy for some extra practice on high throws.
Notice anything like that against Missouri? McCoy put the ball up into some traffic, but he gave Williams a chance to go up and make a play on it, just like they had practiced, and Williams brought it in, just like they had practiced. Brandon Collins made his long play on another adjustment practiced with his quarterback, this time a sight adjustment slant on the blitz. The young receiver who didn't catch a pass in the game, but threw a nice block for Colt McCoy? James Kirkendoll. But he was the guy after the game who said he cared more about the team than not catching a pass after Brown apologized for not getting him the ball. As the season goes on and defenses commit more resources to stop Cosby and Shipley, expect the growing rapport between receivers and quarterback to lead to some big plays for the young'uns.
Series straight out the Wild West. Strange, strange things have happened recently between Oklahoma State and Texas in football. It follows the same basic pattern: The Longhorns get down early, then come roaring back. How roaring? Try 48 unanswered in 2003, followed by 49 unanswered in 2004, followed by 48 straight points in 2005, followed by 24 straights points last year in the fourth quarter to win. Think maybe Okie lite has developed a complex about that? History suggests DKR will be the scene of a wild and wacky football game on Saturday, but I expect the Longhorns to get off to a strong start, with the kind of clock-killing, confidence shattering march down the field that characterizes this football team. Perhaps Mack Brown will even consider departing from his strategy of deferring to the second half and take the football first. Trips Right took a look at the OSU/Mizzou drive charts and concluded that they bode well for Longhorn success. Mizzou went on three drives of nine plays or more, while Okie lite relied on the type of big plays that Will Muschamp refuses to allow. See the one explosive play by Missouri against Texas, which I believe came against the second-team defense. Getting off to a fast start and burying Okie lite early has the added benefit of forcing the Big 12's best ground game to take to the air. And you don't want to be one-dimensional against a Muschamp defense.
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RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
The Wannabe Wagerer: Maybe Vols' offense will put Tide to sleep
from Dr. Saturday - NCAAF - Yahoo! Sports by Doug Gillett
Hey Jenny Slater's Doug Gillett offers weekly gambling advice without bias, malice, or credibility. Or, you know, money.
We're a little over halfway through the season, and the Wannabe Wagerer -- with the brief assistance of noted World War II historian Lou Holtz -- is 16-13 against the spread. Not great, but since I started to put my insubstantial money where my substantial mouth is, I'm up $12,957.69 in exciting prizes and other merchandise (most of the damage, of course, from betting Nikki Meyer's SUV on Florida minus seven and a half over Tennessee). This would be the point any sensible gambler would quit while he's ahead, but if you've been following this feature at all, you know “sensible” isn't a word that typically appears within a hundred miles of me. So damn the torpedoes, let's get to wasting ... uh, that is, wagering:
The Pick: Alabama (-6.5) at Tennessee
I'm Willing to Bet: Inflatable Alabama tailgate tent from Sunbelt Inflatables
Approximate Value: $1,300
As dominant as Alabama has been at certain points on its unexpected run to 7-0, their attention has looked a bit, er, diffuse about as often over the last few weeks. Against Georgia, Kentucky, and Ole Miss, Bama outscored their prey by a total of 69-3 in the first half, only to fall asleep and get outscored 61-13 after halftime. That second-half narcolepsy, combined with the unfriendly confines of Neyland Stadium, must be what has prompted the oddsmakers to install the Tide as a mere touchdown favorite over the hapless Vols this weekend.
That might seem realistic, too, if I thought for one second Tennessee had the offensive firepower to mount the second-half comeback Alabama's last three opponents threatened to. But the Vols' offense has been one-dimensional in even the most manageable circumstances -- in their last three games combined, they've rolled up 209 rushing yards, and at a pitiful 2.4-yards per carry -- so if Alabama builds up another one of its Costco economy-sized first-half leads and forces Tennessee to the air, it's open season on mewling quarterback Nick Stephens, with or without injured nose tackle Terrence Cody. Recall that the Florida-Tennessee game in Knoxville a few weeks ago also had the Vols as only a touchdown 'dog, but quickly turned into a laugher even with Florida's offense at three-quarters speed at best. Another effort like the one in Gainesville means an easy Alabama cover. The best Phil Fulmer can hope for is that Bama is so comfortable after two quarters, it settles down in this suh-weet tailgate tent for some turkey, Franzia and the nap of all naps for the second half.
The Pick: Duke (+9.5) at Vanderbilt
I’m Willing to Bet: Two center-court tickets to Duke-Xavier at The Meadowlands' Aeropostale Classic
Approximate Value: $259
The Great Nerd Uprising of ’08 has lost a bit of its luster, as these two formidable academic institutions went a combined 7-1 over the first five weeks of the season but are only 1-4 since. Still, the fact that anyone at all is talking about this game shows you just how far over their typical Mendoza line the Blue Devils and Commodores are flying at the moment: both are very much alive for their first bowl bids in eons. With five scalps already attached to their belt, the ’Dores are the more likely of the two to earn a postseason invite, but their last two games -- a somnolent loss to truly awful Mississippi State and a never-really-out-of-it-but-never-really-in-it-either loss to Georgia -- are starting to dredge up memories of all those other Vandy teams that started seasons in promising fashion but coughed up their chances for a bowl invitation at every opportunity.
Teams might be catching on to the fact that Vanderbilt really isn’t that good, as long as you force them to be the turnover machine. Along those lines, Duke has the nation’s eighth-best turnover margin, not to mention a quarterback, Thaddeus Lewis, who’s more or less thrived under QB guru David Cutcliffe (just ask Tennessee how valuable he is). I can’t quite bring myself to predict a third straight Vandy stumble here, but after the last couple weeks I can’t bring myself to picture them covering a 10-point cushion, either. I’ll take Duke plus the points and put a pair of basketball tickets on it, since that’s all Duke fans really care about anyway.
The Pick: Middle Tennessee State (+11.5) at Mississippi State
I’m Willing to Bet: Antique iron cowbell
Approximate Value: $115 at GoAntiques.com
I must be crazy to pick any bet involving either MTSU (beat Maryland, nearly knocked off Kentucky, couldn’t stay within two TDs of Arkansas State) or Mississippi State (hasn’t beaten a D-IA team all year, with the exception of 5-0, ranked Vanderbilt), much less both. But let’s look at the facts here. The Blue Raiders have been thorns in the side of major-conference opponents, going 19-11-1 against the spread versus "Big Six" teams over the past 10 seasons (including a 10-7-1 mark against the SEC). Meanwhile, Mississippi State’s offense is such a disaster that they aren’t even averaging 11.5 points against I-A competition, much less beating any of them by that margin. This is going to get ugly. Take MTSU and the points, and don’t be surprised to see an outright Blue Raider upset if MSU’s Tyson Lee keeps throwing touchdowns to the wrong team. Of course, if the Croomdawgs do succeed in grinding out the win, that's just all the more excuse to take a few jubilant whacks on that rural classic, the cowbell, a great find whether you're looking at a wild Saturday afternoon at Davis Wade Stadium or just a quiet evening of channeling Blue Oyster Cult at home.
The Pick: Navy (-13) vs. SMU
I’m Willing to Bet: Decommissioned F-14 Tomcat
Approximate Value: $4,000, if you know the right people
What do you get when you take an institution in one of the nation’s largest urban areas, a fertile recruiting base, an impossibly rich booster community, and add a successful coach? If you’re SMU, the answer is “Still not much,” even when the coach in question is a guy who once took Hawaii from 0-12 to 9-4 in a single year. I’m just planting seeds here, but the Mustangs’ problem may be their defense, currently allowing more than 500 yards per game and ranked next to last in Division I-A; they’re only marginally better (110th) against the run, and if you’ve paid even the slightest bit of attention to Navy football over the last decade or so, you can see what a disaster this game is shaping up to be for June Jones’s team. Expect the Middies’ triple-option-wish/flexbone-O-matic offense to run over, under, around, and through the ’Stangs, who have yet to hold any of their opponents this year, even Texas State-San Marcos, below 30 points. The real question isn’t whether Navy can cover two TDs on SMU (they can), it’s whether SMU can hold Navy under 400 rushing yards. For most of the second half, I imagine even June Jones will be wondering what palms he can grease, laws he can stretch, and right back rooms he can stretch them in to leave Annapolis in one of these winged bringers of death.
from Dr. Saturday - NCAAF - Yahoo! Sports by Doug Gillett
Hey Jenny Slater's Doug Gillett offers weekly gambling advice without bias, malice, or credibility. Or, you know, money.
The Pick: Alabama (-6.5) at Tennessee
I'm Willing to Bet: Inflatable Alabama tailgate tent from Sunbelt Inflatables
Approximate Value: $1,300
As dominant as Alabama has been at certain points on its unexpected run to 7-0, their attention has looked a bit, er, diffuse about as often over the last few weeks. Against Georgia, Kentucky, and Ole Miss, Bama outscored their prey by a total of 69-3 in the first half, only to fall asleep and get outscored 61-13 after halftime. That second-half narcolepsy, combined with the unfriendly confines of Neyland Stadium, must be what has prompted the oddsmakers to install the Tide as a mere touchdown favorite over the hapless Vols this weekend.
That might seem realistic, too, if I thought for one second Tennessee had the offensive firepower to mount the second-half comeback Alabama's last three opponents threatened to. But the Vols' offense has been one-dimensional in even the most manageable circumstances -- in their last three games combined, they've rolled up 209 rushing yards, and at a pitiful 2.4-yards per carry -- so if Alabama builds up another one of its Costco economy-sized first-half leads and forces Tennessee to the air, it's open season on mewling quarterback Nick Stephens, with or without injured nose tackle Terrence Cody. Recall that the Florida-Tennessee game in Knoxville a few weeks ago also had the Vols as only a touchdown 'dog, but quickly turned into a laugher even with Florida's offense at three-quarters speed at best. Another effort like the one in Gainesville means an easy Alabama cover. The best Phil Fulmer can hope for is that Bama is so comfortable after two quarters, it settles down in this suh-weet tailgate tent for some turkey, Franzia and the nap of all naps for the second half.
The Pick: Duke (+9.5) at Vanderbilt
I’m Willing to Bet: Two center-court tickets to Duke-Xavier at The Meadowlands' Aeropostale Classic
Approximate Value: $259
The Great Nerd Uprising of ’08 has lost a bit of its luster, as these two formidable academic institutions went a combined 7-1 over the first five weeks of the season but are only 1-4 since. Still, the fact that anyone at all is talking about this game shows you just how far over their typical Mendoza line the Blue Devils and Commodores are flying at the moment: both are very much alive for their first bowl bids in eons. With five scalps already attached to their belt, the ’Dores are the more likely of the two to earn a postseason invite, but their last two games -- a somnolent loss to truly awful Mississippi State and a never-really-out-of-it-but-never-really-in-it-either loss to Georgia -- are starting to dredge up memories of all those other Vandy teams that started seasons in promising fashion but coughed up their chances for a bowl invitation at every opportunity.
Teams might be catching on to the fact that Vanderbilt really isn’t that good, as long as you force them to be the turnover machine. Along those lines, Duke has the nation’s eighth-best turnover margin, not to mention a quarterback, Thaddeus Lewis, who’s more or less thrived under QB guru David Cutcliffe (just ask Tennessee how valuable he is). I can’t quite bring myself to predict a third straight Vandy stumble here, but after the last couple weeks I can’t bring myself to picture them covering a 10-point cushion, either. I’ll take Duke plus the points and put a pair of basketball tickets on it, since that’s all Duke fans really care about anyway.
I’m Willing to Bet: Antique iron cowbell
Approximate Value: $115 at GoAntiques.com
I must be crazy to pick any bet involving either MTSU (beat Maryland, nearly knocked off Kentucky, couldn’t stay within two TDs of Arkansas State) or Mississippi State (hasn’t beaten a D-IA team all year, with the exception of 5-0, ranked Vanderbilt), much less both. But let’s look at the facts here. The Blue Raiders have been thorns in the side of major-conference opponents, going 19-11-1 against the spread versus "Big Six" teams over the past 10 seasons (including a 10-7-1 mark against the SEC). Meanwhile, Mississippi State’s offense is such a disaster that they aren’t even averaging 11.5 points against I-A competition, much less beating any of them by that margin. This is going to get ugly. Take MTSU and the points, and don’t be surprised to see an outright Blue Raider upset if MSU’s Tyson Lee keeps throwing touchdowns to the wrong team. Of course, if the Croomdawgs do succeed in grinding out the win, that's just all the more excuse to take a few jubilant whacks on that rural classic, the cowbell, a great find whether you're looking at a wild Saturday afternoon at Davis Wade Stadium or just a quiet evening of channeling Blue Oyster Cult at home.
The Pick: Navy (-13) vs. SMU
I’m Willing to Bet: Decommissioned F-14 Tomcat
Approximate Value: $4,000, if you know the right people
What do you get when you take an institution in one of the nation’s largest urban areas, a fertile recruiting base, an impossibly rich booster community, and add a successful coach? If you’re SMU, the answer is “Still not much,” even when the coach in question is a guy who once took Hawaii from 0-12 to 9-4 in a single year. I’m just planting seeds here, but the Mustangs’ problem may be their defense, currently allowing more than 500 yards per game and ranked next to last in Division I-A; they’re only marginally better (110th) against the run, and if you’ve paid even the slightest bit of attention to Navy football over the last decade or so, you can see what a disaster this game is shaping up to be for June Jones’s team. Expect the Middies’ triple-option-wish/flexbone-O-matic offense to run over, under, around, and through the ’Stangs, who have yet to hold any of their opponents this year, even Texas State-San Marcos, below 30 points. The real question isn’t whether Navy can cover two TDs on SMU (they can), it’s whether SMU can hold Navy under 400 rushing yards. For most of the second half, I imagine even June Jones will be wondering what palms he can grease, laws he can stretch, and right back rooms he can stretch them in to leave Annapolis in one of these winged bringers of death.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
Syracuse AD: 'We are keeping Greg Robinson dangling from a string as long as possible.'
from Dr. Saturday - NCAAF - Yahoo! Sports by Matt Hinton
Sure, it's never good to be the subject of a New York Times article that claims your boss is shilling to openly court your replacement, even if you think the Grey Lady is a liberal fishwrap (or a lair of lazy climbers who inexcusably rolled over to sell the administration's version of Iraq before the war, whatever). But on some level, learning that a search committee is already working towards his inevitable pink slip must be a sort of relief for Greg Robinson, who is so, so fired at Syracuse that formal confirmation of the rampant rumors of his demise would be a load off, more than anything else. Just, you know, get on with it. NFL coordinator jobs will be coming open soon. Instead, Syracuse AD Daryl Gross -- who every single person who has ever remarked on the subject agrees will be officially firing Robinson at some point before the middle of December -- is standing by his man all the way to the gallows:
So if the New York Times and its anonymous "person with knowledge of the situation" is wrong, and Daryl Gross is telling the truth about the as yet fictional search, well, that's just sadistic.
from Dr. Saturday - NCAAF - Yahoo! Sports by Matt Hinton
Gross said he has not hired [coach-searching guru Rob] Neinas or any consulting firm.
"No, it's absolutely not true," Gross told The Post-Standard. "The reality is ... I haven't hired anyone and the university hasn't hired anyone. It's speculation and it would be inappropriate for me to hire someone (a consulting firm or search firm) at this point."
Gross denied the search on the record for the Times, too, which is just cruel, really. The next loss -- likely Saturday against Louisville in the Carrier Dome, where the Orange have been somewhat competitive against Pittsburgh and West Virginia -- will mathematically eliminate 'Cuse from a bowl game. Absent an incredible, Hollywood-worthy five-game win streak to sneak into the postseason, there's a new coach in 2009. Given that Greg Robinson won't be back for a fifth year of pain, if for some reason Syracuse isn't searching for his replacement, there's only one other logical possibility: It somehow wants Robinson to think it might keep him on for a fifth year of pain."No, it's absolutely not true," Gross told The Post-Standard. "The reality is ... I haven't hired anyone and the university hasn't hired anyone. It's speculation and it would be inappropriate for me to hire someone (a consulting firm or search firm) at this point."
So if the New York Times and its anonymous "person with knowledge of the situation" is wrong, and Daryl Gross is telling the truth about the as yet fictional search, well, that's just sadistic.
Aztec4Life
Montezuma Mesa Survivor
RJ - You leaning South Florida too? They look so tempting at -4.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
Yeah, I think I'm about to pull the trigger. I think USF wins by DD in this one. Their offense is down from last year but they have a far superior defense to L-ville. Need to check on the RB situation though.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
Saw that. I like that fact. Need a running game and Grothe to exploit this shitty L-ville D.
Looks like the major losses are 2 defensive backups and the PK who has been lost for 4 weeks.
I'll probably be on USF with this shitty line.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
No notes for me. Checked the schedule and no look ahead or sandwich for USF. Made the line 7 so I like the 4.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
Cantwell isn't going to do shit different than he has already done.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
Haha re T Boone U:
Oklahoma State Would Like to Renegotiate That Mortgage Right About Now, Please
from The Sporting Blog
Oklahoma State University has this odd relationship with billionaire oil tycoon T. Boone Pickens. To be specific, T. Boone sort of owns the athletic program lock, stock, and barrel in a way that only Phil Knight at Oregon can really rival, having given the university $165 million that ballooned to $300 million dollars at the peak of its value. One wrinkle, though: the donation was left in a hedge fund by Pickens, who insisted on a loan for the purchase of the materials for improvements to Lewis Field and other athletic buildings on the Stillwater campus, which totaled around $200 million. The money in the hedge fund -- swollen by massive global oil prices -- was used as collateral. Early warning signs last week pointed to a reduction in the value of the money making all of this borrowing possible, but now the situation may be far, far worse: the entire donated sum may have been eaten up by cratering oil prices and inept line calls made by T. Boone's fund managers.
From OUInsider, via 100% Injury Rate:
Officials were told that actually, the entire $ 165 million donation, and the earnings, which once inflated the gift to over $300 million, had recently been eliminated by margin calls due to drastically falling oil prices.100% Injury Rate wonders if a university has ever declared bankruptcy, but that seems drastic. Remember that the really wealthy never go broke, they just "manage illiquid financial situations through proactive partnership with investors and capital solutions" or if you like English, they "borrow more money" or "sell stuff." Pickens himself is still worth a huge amount of money even in a bearish oil market, and could probably bail out the university's liability on the loan by himself. Being A MAN WHO IS 40 (times two), he probably will do something like this, but for the moment take note of two things. First, Oklahoma State University at this instant may have an outstanding liability on a football stadium used six or seven times in a given year that exceeds 40% of their net 2009 projected general revenue as a university. Two, the global financial crisis has finally affected even precious football, whose economic demand has been notoriously inelastic and impervious to the effects of numerous recessions.
As of Monday OSU's gift had flat-lined completely and was declared 'gone.'
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
Gauging the premature Bret Bielema hot seat buzz
from Dr. Saturday - NCAAF - Yahoo! Sports by Matt Hinton
There is a 'Fire Bret Bielema' blog. There may be several of them, or several 'Fire Bret Bielema' communities within other Badger blogs and/or message boards, but that's the one I know about. This is not news because, as I mentioned earlier in the week and Brian Cook has succinctly demonstrated, there are "Fire Coach X" sites for almost every coach who has ever coached since Al Gore invented the Internet, if you care to look. The premature "Fire Coach X" is something of a young Web tradition, especially if it matures and blossoms into a hub of discontent that actually helps get the coach fired, like the inimitable "Fire Ron Zook" (sadly defunct, though not without its Illinoisan admirers) or Fire Karl Dorrell, which carried the hate torch across the finish line in its reincarnation as Bruins Nation. They're so plentiful, in fact, that inevitable domains like 'Fire Kirk Ferentz' and 'Fire Rick Neuheisel' have been appropriated for vastly different purposes.The Bielema site, though -- which is legit, run by a Madison law student, and not a marketing opportunity -- piqued my attention because I'd been unapologetically on the Badger bandwagon in the preseason and through two Saturdays ago I'd considered Bielema one of the better, more underrated coaches in the country. There was the whole Erin Andrews thing. Suddenly Wisconsin has been blown out two weeks in a row, is sitting at 0-4 in the Big Ten with losses to Michigan and Iowa, Bielema is figuring prominently on "Coaches Hot Seat,' commenters are poking fun at his weight, reporters are starting to ask Bielema about the buzz and columnists are calling for godfather Barry Alvarez to publicly defend his chosen successor.
Premature? For a guy who went 21-5 his first two seasons, no doubt. But where there's smoke, there's at least a little fire, so to gauge exactly how hot the seat is in Madison as even a middling bowl bid drifts further into the distance, I hit up a couple sane Wisconsin media types who responded with considered, well thought-out, logical arguments that of course reach complete opposite conclusions:
The quarterback position has never been adequately addressed. The talent at wide receiver is undeveloped and seems to be inadequate, again.
Defense, Bielema's background, is a joke. They have talented linebackers who consistently misread plays and take poor angles. The secondary is okay, but with no real pass-rush threat on the line outside of [defensive end Matt] Shaughnessy, they're asked to do too much.
I haven't heard any specific rumblings about Bielema's job status, outside of the usual fan griping. I don't put much stock into that, but it doesn't seem like there's been a lot. Not sure if this fan base is just too patient, or if Bielema really bought some time with these people by getting to two straight New Year's Day bowls.
As for his expanding waistline, well duh. He lives in Madison. He doesn't have any other choice.
String him up! I mean, wait a second:
To my thinking, nobody was ready to enshrine Bielema into the college football hall of fame after his first two seasons during which his record (21-5) matched Jim Tressel's first two years. In fact, only one coach in the history of the Big Ten has posted a higher winning percentage after his first two years than Bielema and Tressel. That was Fielding Yost.
So if there was no rush to judgement to get Bielema elected to the Hall of Fame, there should be none now to pass judgement after seven games in his third season.
That's my perspective.
The fans? The zealots are everywhere today.
And there's no silencing them.Especially because they have greater access than ever before, and less accoutability, I might add.
Such is the landscape.
It's interesting that the more impatient observer doesn't see much credible fan unrest, while the Bielema defender senses "the zealots are everywhere." I suppose the answer, as always, lies somewhere in the middle.
At any rate, unless Wisconsin blows the rest of its Big Ten games and/or the finale against I-AA Cal Poly -- which, hey, has a I-AA win this year, over San Diego State in the opener -- Bielema is probably working with a pretty long leash, although he might be walking on glass if 2009 doesn't look any better (there's still no adequate quarterback, dontcha know). Who would have thought two years ago that, among the Big Ten's alarmingly young, crew-cutted, ex-linebacker new coaches, Pat Fitzgerald would ever be the one jockeying for a January bowl while Bielema struggling to stay out of the cellar?
from Dr. Saturday - NCAAF - Yahoo! Sports by Matt Hinton
Premature? For a guy who went 21-5 his first two seasons, no doubt. But where there's smoke, there's at least a little fire, so to gauge exactly how hot the seat is in Madison as even a middling bowl bid drifts further into the distance, I hit up a couple sane Wisconsin media types who responded with considered, well thought-out, logical arguments that of course reach complete opposite conclusions:
Bruce Ciskie, of Duluth radio, AOL FanHouse and The Ciskie Blog: Basically, my take on Bielema is simple: I'm beginning to believe they hired the wrong guy. It's nothing against Bielema, as I think he's a pretty good defensive coach. But this team is looking more and more like a mess the further away we get from having a team built around Barry Alvarez recruits. Bielema is an okay motivator, but he hasn't proven anything to me as a recruiter, and the fact that a defensive head coach is watching idly as his defense gets consistently shredded is just too much for me to stomach.
The quarterback position has never been adequately addressed. The talent at wide receiver is undeveloped and seems to be inadequate, again.
Defense, Bielema's background, is a joke. They have talented linebackers who consistently misread plays and take poor angles. The secondary is okay, but with no real pass-rush threat on the line outside of [defensive end Matt] Shaughnessy, they're asked to do too much.
I haven't heard any specific rumblings about Bielema's job status, outside of the usual fan griping. I don't put much stock into that, but it doesn't seem like there's been a lot. Not sure if this fan base is just too patient, or if Bielema really bought some time with these people by getting to two straight New Year's Day bowls.
As for his expanding waistline, well duh. He lives in Madison. He doesn't have any other choice.
Mike Lucas, of the Capital Times in Madison: There is no hot seat as far as the administration given that Bielema was Barry's hand-picked successor.Nor should there be a hot seat.
To my thinking, nobody was ready to enshrine Bielema into the college football hall of fame after his first two seasons during which his record (21-5) matched Jim Tressel's first two years. In fact, only one coach in the history of the Big Ten has posted a higher winning percentage after his first two years than Bielema and Tressel. That was Fielding Yost.
So if there was no rush to judgement to get Bielema elected to the Hall of Fame, there should be none now to pass judgement after seven games in his third season.
That's my perspective.
The fans? The zealots are everywhere today.
And there's no silencing them.Especially because they have greater access than ever before, and less accoutability, I might add.
Such is the landscape.
At any rate, unless Wisconsin blows the rest of its Big Ten games and/or the finale against I-AA Cal Poly -- which, hey, has a I-AA win this year, over San Diego State in the opener -- Bielema is probably working with a pretty long leash, although he might be walking on glass if 2009 doesn't look any better (there's still no adequate quarterback, dontcha know). Who would have thought two years ago that, among the Big Ten's alarmingly young, crew-cutted, ex-linebacker new coaches, Pat Fitzgerald would ever be the one jockeying for a January bowl while Bielema struggling to stay out of the cellar?
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
The Infamous Penn State - Ohio State Pike Frat Incident Celebrates One-Year Anniversary
Published by J Koot at 5:01 pm under Ohio State, Peckerheads, Penn State
Visited 14 times, 14 so far today
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It’s been nearly one year since Busted Coverage (then called Big T@n Tailgate) discovered a YouTube video that would forever change this operation.
Soon the above video would be the subject of an arrest and news reports in Pittsburgh, Columbus and State College.
After some digging between the Daily Collegian (PSU) and BTT, it was discovered that the moron responsible for this video was named Gaetano Sacco, a Pike vice president. For weeks, his name was plastered across Ohio State message boards.
We have a surprise for our loyal Buckeye readers. There are photos of this guy and let’s just say that he will be a legend on Yag Wired.
BC might joke around here and there but one full can of beer to OSU fan’s head and it could have been all over.
We hope Gaetano isn’t the same moron he was a year ago, but from the look of things not much has changed in his world.
“This is Penn State, b!tch!”
Published by J Koot at 5:01 pm under Ohio State, Peckerheads, Penn State
Visited 14 times, 14 so far today
<object data="http://www.youtube.com/v/jDiRPUiQZHc" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="425" height="355">
</object>
It’s been nearly one year since Busted Coverage (then called Big T@n Tailgate) discovered a YouTube video that would forever change this operation.
Soon the above video would be the subject of an arrest and news reports in Pittsburgh, Columbus and State College.
After some digging between the Daily Collegian (PSU) and BTT, it was discovered that the moron responsible for this video was named Gaetano Sacco, a Pike vice president. For weeks, his name was plastered across Ohio State message boards.
We have a surprise for our loyal Buckeye readers. There are photos of this guy and let’s just say that he will be a legend on Yag Wired.
Why, Mr. Sacco, are you naked in the presence of all these other men?
Here’s to a great game this weekend and the hope that nothing even remotely similar happens to PSU fans.BC might joke around here and there but one full can of beer to OSU fan’s head and it could have been all over.
We hope Gaetano isn’t the same moron he was a year ago, but from the look of things not much has changed in his world.
“This is Penn State, b!tch!”
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
The Weekly Buzz
from Big Red Network
This week has two games that are intriguing on a national scale. Will Texas continue to roll through the toughest part of their schedule undefeated? Is the underdog Texas Tech ranked about 15 spots too high? Vegas oddsmakers seems to think so.
Texas Tech @ Kansas » This is the most even match you will see all year. These two team are almost neck and neck in many statistical categories including leading the league in interceptions. Both allow around 21 points/game and less than 360 yards/game each. Both of these teams rely heavily on their passing oriented offenses and their front four's ability to stop the run. Tech opponents are averaging less than 93 yards/game on the ground while the Jayhawks have held their opponents to less than 110. Even though Kansas is the home favorite right now, I say that the Red Raiders will pull an “upset” in the last stage of the game: 34-30 and Jayhawk fans go home sad.
Baylor @ Nebraska » Please, pretty please, Bo Pelini don't look past this game. This is the best Baylor team that has ever come to Memorial Stadium. This should not be more than a warm up game if all goes well for Nebraska, it just depends on which Huskers show up. The Bear's running game has been a surprise this year. The Huskers have just a slight edge in numbers, but NU's turnover margin is in a sad state of affairs. Let's hope the “new and improved” Husker pass-happy offense can continue it's consistency started in the past few weeks. Huskers fans drive home happy, but don't leave early, 35-17.
Oklahoma @ Kansas State » Mismatch. Oklahoma ranks in the top half in almost every statistical category in the Big 12 while the Wildcats are listed in the bottom half of almost every category. The Sooner defense can be considered the best in the league, depending on your view of Texas. They lead in sacks and tackles for loss. Their offense is even better – Bradford easily being the second best quarterback in the country right now. And get this, they haven't given up a single fumble this year. I say Sooners sleep easy Saturday night, 44-27.
Oklahoma State @ Texas » Will defenses or offenses win this game? The Cowboy's running game at this point is almost 100 yards/game better than the Texas ground game, but the Longhorns are led by the wildly efficient Colt McCoy. Both of these teams took the Missouri Tigers to task in the last few weeks. If the 'Pokes want to win this game, they're going to have to learn to take advantage of the 'Horns pass defense. They will also want to knock McCoy on his back a few times, but so far have not been able to sack quarterbacks on a regular basis. The real battle will be between OSU's run game and UT's front four. Longhorns continue to roll towards a Big 12 Championship, 48-32.
Colorado @ Missouri » This game brings one of the least prolific offenses to visit one of the most prolific offenses in the country. The Buffs are only averaging 21 points/game and 316 yards/game of TOTAL offense. Missouri is averaging 369 yards/game just through the air. The Tigers are also looking to end their two game losing streak by getting to the Big 12 Championship game. To do that, they're going to have to win the rest of the year. They're going to start here 43-16.
Texas A&M @ Iowa State » If there's any game you can miss this week, it's this one. These two teams are in the bottom third of the Big 12 in most of the categories the NCAA tracks. The Cyclones, however, proudly lead the league in turnover margin. They have a habit of jarring those footballs loose. The Aggies are second in the league in pass defense, but I don't think it's for the reason you're thinking. They're letting teams rush over 200 yards/game against them. I give the home edge to the Cyclones, 34-24.
from Big Red Network
This week has two games that are intriguing on a national scale. Will Texas continue to roll through the toughest part of their schedule undefeated? Is the underdog Texas Tech ranked about 15 spots too high? Vegas oddsmakers seems to think so.
Texas Tech @ Kansas » This is the most even match you will see all year. These two team are almost neck and neck in many statistical categories including leading the league in interceptions. Both allow around 21 points/game and less than 360 yards/game each. Both of these teams rely heavily on their passing oriented offenses and their front four's ability to stop the run. Tech opponents are averaging less than 93 yards/game on the ground while the Jayhawks have held their opponents to less than 110. Even though Kansas is the home favorite right now, I say that the Red Raiders will pull an “upset” in the last stage of the game: 34-30 and Jayhawk fans go home sad.
Baylor @ Nebraska » Please, pretty please, Bo Pelini don't look past this game. This is the best Baylor team that has ever come to Memorial Stadium. This should not be more than a warm up game if all goes well for Nebraska, it just depends on which Huskers show up. The Bear's running game has been a surprise this year. The Huskers have just a slight edge in numbers, but NU's turnover margin is in a sad state of affairs. Let's hope the “new and improved” Husker pass-happy offense can continue it's consistency started in the past few weeks. Huskers fans drive home happy, but don't leave early, 35-17.
Oklahoma @ Kansas State » Mismatch. Oklahoma ranks in the top half in almost every statistical category in the Big 12 while the Wildcats are listed in the bottom half of almost every category. The Sooner defense can be considered the best in the league, depending on your view of Texas. They lead in sacks and tackles for loss. Their offense is even better – Bradford easily being the second best quarterback in the country right now. And get this, they haven't given up a single fumble this year. I say Sooners sleep easy Saturday night, 44-27.
Oklahoma State @ Texas » Will defenses or offenses win this game? The Cowboy's running game at this point is almost 100 yards/game better than the Texas ground game, but the Longhorns are led by the wildly efficient Colt McCoy. Both of these teams took the Missouri Tigers to task in the last few weeks. If the 'Pokes want to win this game, they're going to have to learn to take advantage of the 'Horns pass defense. They will also want to knock McCoy on his back a few times, but so far have not been able to sack quarterbacks on a regular basis. The real battle will be between OSU's run game and UT's front four. Longhorns continue to roll towards a Big 12 Championship, 48-32.
Colorado @ Missouri » This game brings one of the least prolific offenses to visit one of the most prolific offenses in the country. The Buffs are only averaging 21 points/game and 316 yards/game of TOTAL offense. Missouri is averaging 369 yards/game just through the air. The Tigers are also looking to end their two game losing streak by getting to the Big 12 Championship game. To do that, they're going to have to win the rest of the year. They're going to start here 43-16.
Texas A&M @ Iowa State » If there's any game you can miss this week, it's this one. These two teams are in the bottom third of the Big 12 in most of the categories the NCAA tracks. The Cyclones, however, proudly lead the league in turnover margin. They have a habit of jarring those footballs loose. The Aggies are second in the league in pass defense, but I don't think it's for the reason you're thinking. They're letting teams rush over 200 yards/game against them. I give the home edge to the Cyclones, 34-24.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
Morning Coffee Looks At Probabilities
from Burnt Orange Nation by PB @ BON
Morning Coffee Mailbag. BON's favorite (also: only) intern checked in Thursday with an email about the tailback situation:
My own biases aside, here's the rub: I think your question is a little off base insofar as its entirely tailback-oriented. I think what you're seeing right now is the Texas offensive line run blocking better than it has in a long time, to such a degree that even if I'm batsh*t crazy with my Ogbonnaya love, it's not such a huge leap of faith to believe he's capable of being effective when the O-Line is performing at a high level.
And right now, it is. So rather than wonder if everyone's insane for not questioning Ogbonnaya's recent explosion, you might just wonder whether I'm insane (you wouldn't be the first) and assume for everyone else that it's not so far fetched to feel comfortable liking the overall developments in the running game.
Setting the tone: Crowd noise. Mack Brown opened his mid-week remarks with a comment not on the Cowboys, but on the crowd:
There! Right there! See that?! Just a quick programming note that it'll be Bob Griese, Brad Nessler, and Paul Maguire in the booth calling Saturday's game. Paul Maguire repeatedly will ask you if you can--Look! Right there!--see the TV that you're, you know, watching.
Checking the spreads. The Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Saturday's line at Texas -10.5, but that hasn't lasted: Now that bettors have loaded up on Texas, the best you can find in Vegas is Texas -12. Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings forecasts Texas by 13.2. Bruce Feldman is done picking against the Horns (Texas by 20).
Checking the spreads, Part 2. Stewie Mandel has caught a lot of flak over the years from the college blogosphere, but his dip into the SEC Defense vs Big 12 Offense debate is respectably measured:
Well, almost. Okay, no total free pass for Stew today: He does toss this unsubstantiated bit into the column:
Morning Coffee Mailbag, Part 2. I've been looking for a good reason to talk long-term odds for a week now, and the following email gives me the perfect in:
<table align="center" border="1" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Game</td> <td>TX Win% (High)</td> <td>TX Win % (Low)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>OSU</td> <td>0.8</td> <td>0.6</td> </tr> <tr> <td>TECH</td> <td>0.7</td> <td>0.55</td> </tr> <tr> <td>BOTH</td> <td>56%</td> <td>33%</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Returning to the betting perspective: If you lean towards the aggressive (High) estimates, that 8:5 bet isn't so bad, but if you're less confident in the 'Horns and assign them the lower win percentages, it's a poor value.
Now let's add Baylor and Kansas to the mix:
<table align="center" border="1" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Game</td> <td>TX Win% (High)</td> <td>TX Win % (Low)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>OSU</td> <td>0.8</td> <td>0.6</td> </tr> <tr> <td>TECH</td> <td>0.7</td> <td>0.55</td> </tr> <tr> <td>BU</td> <td>0.95</td> <td>0.9</td> </tr> <tr> <td>KU</td> <td>0.8</td> <td>0.6</td> </tr> <tr> <td>ALL</td> <td>43%</td> <td>18%</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Nothing changes from the betting perspective (only the confident Longhorn fan should wager on four straight wins), but I really lay all this out so that I can add in one last final step--the potential Big 12 Title Game which would follow winning our next four. (Yes, plus A&M. I refuse to consider the possibility that we lose that game in Austin. Refuse.)
<table align="center" border="1" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Game</td> <td>TX Win% (High)</td> <td>TX Win % (Low)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>OSU</td> <td>0.8</td> <td>0.6</td> </tr> <tr> <td>TECH</td> <td>0.7</td> <td>0.55</td> </tr> <tr> <td>BU</td> <td>0.95</td> <td>0.9</td> </tr> <tr> <td>KU</td> <td>0.8</td> <td>0.6</td> </tr> <tr> <td>B12 TG
</td> <td>0.65</td> <td>0.55</td> </tr> <tr> <td>ALL</td> <td>28%</td> <td>10%</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Setting allllll that betting junk aside, Texas' odds of winning its next six games are between roughly 10 and 30 percent, depending on how much better you think Texas is than the competition. That is, even if you're Left Column Optimistic, the math ain't good for an undefeated run.
Which demands one and only one approach: For now, let's take things one game at a time. After all, the numbers improve nicely if we win on Saturday. And they rocket upward if Texas were to wake up on November 2nd at 9-0.
Whatever happens... Is this a great time to bleed burnt orange or what?
from Burnt Orange Nation by PB @ BON
So are we just accepting this? Chris Ogbannaya is suddenly the answer at tailback? Do you have any insight on the meteoric rise of OG and whether we should expect old OG or new OG for the rest of the season? I just think I haven't seen anyone on the site acting sufficiently surprised by this.
--Andrew R.
First of all, don't be such a stranger, old friend. As to your question, I'll ask readers: Does anyone remember the 2007 spring game? Andrew's email prompted me to go digging through the BON archives and I found my notes from that game. On Ogbonnaya:--Andrew R.
For one thing, Chris Ogbonnaya, who is officially "my boy," had a terrific scrimmage, picking up all the yards he was supposed to, finishing runs around the down markers and end zone, and even providing an impressive burst of speed around the corner. I truly think Texas has a Priest Holmes-type runner on their hands, and the sooner the coaches realize it, the better.
Now, to be fair, by the fall of last year, Ogbonnaya appeared to have used the summer of '07 to bulk up considerably (thanks Mad Dog!); as the season got underway in September, he more resembled a fullback than the player who had so tickled my fancy six months prior. Even so, to the extent your question suggests that Ogbonnaya's strong performance in Big 12 play this year is so far out of left field as to warrant more skepticism... well, I'm the wrong guy to ask: I was an OG fan waaaaay before it was cool.
My own biases aside, here's the rub: I think your question is a little off base insofar as its entirely tailback-oriented. I think what you're seeing right now is the Texas offensive line run blocking better than it has in a long time, to such a degree that even if I'm batsh*t crazy with my Ogbonnaya love, it's not such a huge leap of faith to believe he's capable of being effective when the O-Line is performing at a high level.
And right now, it is. So rather than wonder if everyone's insane for not questioning Ogbonnaya's recent explosion, you might just wonder whether I'm insane (you wouldn't be the first) and assume for everyone else that it's not so far fetched to feel comfortable liking the overall developments in the running game.
One thing we'd like to do is encourage our fans to have the same attitude this weekend they had last week. It was just unbelievable the excitement, coming early, there were so many people around the stadium when we drove up two hours before. The fact that so many fans met the team at the north end two hours before, and then just the noise level that our fans had during the ballgame, we felt like made a really big difference.
Honestly, the entire transcript from Mack's Wednesday presser is an interesting read. Among the nuggets:
- He considers this year's squad the most unselfish group since he arrived in Austin.
- OSU's balance allows them to attack you on the outside with the running game or, if you commit DB support to the run, pick on you with Dez Bryant in one-on-one coverage.
- The effort to bring the young receivers along is a concerted one.
- Blocking Orakpo in practice prepares our O-Line to block anyone.
- Mack's as concerned about the OSU kick return game as I am.
There's no reason to believe that Big 12 defenses are any worse this year than in the past. If anything, several teams (Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State) appear to have gotten better, albeit still not great. But clearly, the league has never had this many elite offenses at once. It's a perfect confluence of great quarterbacks and dangerous, no-huddle/spread schemes.
History shows that a team with a dominant defense is far more likely to win a national-title game when facing a team with a powerful offense. In fact, that's exactly how LSU beat Oklahoma in the leagues' last head-to-head title matchup in 2003. That said, Texas showed against USC in '05 that it's possible to win a championship in a shootout.
History actually shows a grand total of 10 BCS Title games which paint no such clear picture. It might well be that a team with a great defense is better positioned to win a national title game than one with a great offense, but we'll need a lot more history to establish whether one is more likely--or "far more likely"--than the other.
Thought this might be of interest:
Two weeks into their stay at No. 1 in the Associated Press poll, the Texas Longhorns may not want to get too comfortable.
According to the odds makers at BetOnline.com, there's good odds (7-to-2) this will be their second - and final - week atop the AP poll with No. 7 Oklahoma State looming, and even better odds (8-to-5) they last just three weeks in the top spot with a showdown with No. 8 Texas Tech on the horizon.
As for the chance of them making it four straight (with wins over OK State and Tech)? 10-to-1.
--Kate P.
Unfortunately, Kate didn't include a source link, but I did some digging and found this near-identical blurb from Natalie England at the San Antonio Express-News. However, as I tried to work through the material, neither Kate's email nor Natalie's note are clear enough to say definitively what these odds really are. My best guess is as follows:Two weeks into their stay at No. 1 in the Associated Press poll, the Texas Longhorns may not want to get too comfortable.
According to the odds makers at BetOnline.com, there's good odds (7-to-2) this will be their second - and final - week atop the AP poll with No. 7 Oklahoma State looming, and even better odds (8-to-5) they last just three weeks in the top spot with a showdown with No. 8 Texas Tech on the horizon.
As for the chance of them making it four straight (with wins over OK State and Tech)? 10-to-1.
--Kate P.
- 7:2 odds ($1 to win ~$1.30) Texas loses to Oklahoma State on Saturday
- 8:5 ($1 to win ~$1.60) Texas loses to OSU or Texas Tech
- 10:1 ($1 to win ~$4) Texas loses one of its next four (OSU, Tech, Baylor, Kansas)
Beat OSU + TECH
<table align="center" border="1" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Game</td> <td>TX Win% (High)</td> <td>TX Win % (Low)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>OSU</td> <td>0.8</td> <td>0.6</td> </tr> <tr> <td>TECH</td> <td>0.7</td> <td>0.55</td> </tr> <tr> <td>BOTH</td> <td>56%</td> <td>33%</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Returning to the betting perspective: If you lean towards the aggressive (High) estimates, that 8:5 bet isn't so bad, but if you're less confident in the 'Horns and assign them the lower win percentages, it's a poor value.
Now let's add Baylor and Kansas to the mix:
<table align="center" border="1" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Game</td> <td>TX Win% (High)</td> <td>TX Win % (Low)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>OSU</td> <td>0.8</td> <td>0.6</td> </tr> <tr> <td>TECH</td> <td>0.7</td> <td>0.55</td> </tr> <tr> <td>BU</td> <td>0.95</td> <td>0.9</td> </tr> <tr> <td>KU</td> <td>0.8</td> <td>0.6</td> </tr> <tr> <td>ALL</td> <td>43%</td> <td>18%</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Nothing changes from the betting perspective (only the confident Longhorn fan should wager on four straight wins), but I really lay all this out so that I can add in one last final step--the potential Big 12 Title Game which would follow winning our next four. (Yes, plus A&M. I refuse to consider the possibility that we lose that game in Austin. Refuse.)
<table align="center" border="1" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Game</td> <td>TX Win% (High)</td> <td>TX Win % (Low)</td> </tr> <tr> <td>OSU</td> <td>0.8</td> <td>0.6</td> </tr> <tr> <td>TECH</td> <td>0.7</td> <td>0.55</td> </tr> <tr> <td>BU</td> <td>0.95</td> <td>0.9</td> </tr> <tr> <td>KU</td> <td>0.8</td> <td>0.6</td> </tr> <tr> <td>B12 TG
</td> <td>0.65</td> <td>0.55</td> </tr> <tr> <td>ALL</td> <td>28%</td> <td>10%</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Setting allllll that betting junk aside, Texas' odds of winning its next six games are between roughly 10 and 30 percent, depending on how much better you think Texas is than the competition. That is, even if you're Left Column Optimistic, the math ain't good for an undefeated run.
Which demands one and only one approach: For now, let's take things one game at a time. After all, the numbers improve nicely if we win on Saturday. And they rocket upward if Texas were to wake up on November 2nd at 9-0.
Whatever happens... Is this a great time to bleed burnt orange or what?
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
Kickers talking shit is always funny.
Justin Tucker Is A Man And 41
from Burnt Orange Nation by PB @ BON
Hilarious. Beat OSU.
Justin Tucker Is A Man And 41
from Burnt Orange Nation by PB @ BON
Hilarious. Beat OSU.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
Colorado's Josh Smith was looking forward to children, some day
from Dr. Saturday - NCAAF - Yahoo! Sports by Matt Hinton
You've seen Brandon Graham's predictions for the weekend. Now here's one of mine: whatever injuries, spears, crackbacks, chop blocks, late hits, schlobberknockers and blindside maulings go down Saturday, none of them will be as painful as the blow Attrail Snipes laid last week on Colorado's Josh Smith:
from Dr. Saturday - NCAAF - Yahoo! Sports by Matt Hinton
You've seen Brandon Graham's predictions for the weekend. Now here's one of mine: whatever injuries, spears, crackbacks, chop blocks, late hits, schlobberknockers and blindside maulings go down Saturday, none of them will be as painful as the blow Attrail Snipes laid last week on Colorado's Josh Smith:
<embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/hDDHqpuqFqk&hl=en&fs=1" allowscriptaccess="never" wmode="transparent" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="425" height="344">Popout
The fair catch is your friend, Josh, unless of course you're really enjoying the alto section during locker room sing-alongs. It's a lot of fun, actually, once the nausea subsides.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
Ron Prince's Father Passed Away
from Bring On The Cats by Panjandrum
Ron Prince's Father Passed Away
Hey,guys. I know that we've had some criticisms of Prince's coaching recently, but let's go easy on the guy this weekend. His father just passed away.
The link will take you to an article from the Wichita Eagle.
The thoughts of the BOTC clan are with the Prince family this weekend. EMAW.
from Bring On The Cats by Panjandrum
Ron Prince's Father Passed Away
Hey,guys. I know that we've had some criticisms of Prince's coaching recently, but let's go easy on the guy this weekend. His father just passed away.
The link will take you to an article from the Wichita Eagle.
The thoughts of the BOTC clan are with the Prince family this weekend. EMAW.
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
Matador’s Week 10 Notebook
from underdogsofwar.com by Matador
I’ll be very brief again this week. I probably have a lot to say if I wanted to make the effort, but it’s been a rough week. Bad week last week, plus I’ve been sick with migraines, and unusually busy to boot. I hope to have more to say and to participate better next week, but for now I’ll just do the minimum and put my few picks in. I’m cutting back, because to put it bluntly, my handicapping has sucked recently. I thought about either taking the week off or playing just one or two games, but I thought better of it. No need to overreact. The problem is mostly I’m trying too hard and pressing. That won’t be a problem this week, as I’ve had little time or energy to devote.
Points:
Texas Tech +1 — I’m eliminating pointspread plays for games lined higher than say, 10 points. That’s simply because I don’t do it very well, and haven’t for a long time. What good is a point anyway? My choices were +1 +104 (which I took), or ML +105 at the time I placed it, so I took the point. Officially, it is a pointspread wager, but what’s the difference?
UNC -2 — I hate the ACC, because they kill me, but I’m sucked into quite a few of their games again this week.
Possible: Hawaii +3.5, Rice +2.5
Money Line:
I lost a couple of longshots again last week, but that doesn’t bother me. The damage was done taking worthless points. My numbers look pretty bad at this so far this year, but I think it will improve. I just have to stop over analysing and clean it up a bit.
Duke +370 — The kind of play it won’t bother me to lose. Kind of obvious without putting too much thought in, I could never get away from this and wouldn’t want to, so I put it in at the open.
That’s all so far, but I will add. I just think I might do better to add late.
Priced in?: Virginia +450, NCSU +370 (I’ll probably play this), BGSU +260, Hawaii, Rice.
Longshots? (I’ll probably leave it alone this week, but): UNLV, EMU for Mastiffs, or Great Danes, or whatever, but longshot betting actually requires more detail work and I doubt I’ll find the energy. UCLA, same deal. Idaho. I think eventually they surprise a 1A team but value is diminished at this point.
Totals:
I missed the open this week. I only took 2 early:
Virginia/GT Over 37
Oklahoma/KSU Under 71.5 — This one went back up after going down. I don’t know why.
Added one a short while ago on the prospect of better than anticipated weather in Chapel Hill:
BC/UNC Over 41.5 — In fair weather, that’s a very low number.
Again sorry about the minimal input and weak plays recently. I hope to change both very soon.
from underdogsofwar.com by Matador
I’ll be very brief again this week. I probably have a lot to say if I wanted to make the effort, but it’s been a rough week. Bad week last week, plus I’ve been sick with migraines, and unusually busy to boot. I hope to have more to say and to participate better next week, but for now I’ll just do the minimum and put my few picks in. I’m cutting back, because to put it bluntly, my handicapping has sucked recently. I thought about either taking the week off or playing just one or two games, but I thought better of it. No need to overreact. The problem is mostly I’m trying too hard and pressing. That won’t be a problem this week, as I’ve had little time or energy to devote.
Points:
Texas Tech +1 — I’m eliminating pointspread plays for games lined higher than say, 10 points. That’s simply because I don’t do it very well, and haven’t for a long time. What good is a point anyway? My choices were +1 +104 (which I took), or ML +105 at the time I placed it, so I took the point. Officially, it is a pointspread wager, but what’s the difference?
UNC -2 — I hate the ACC, because they kill me, but I’m sucked into quite a few of their games again this week.
Possible: Hawaii +3.5, Rice +2.5
Money Line:
I lost a couple of longshots again last week, but that doesn’t bother me. The damage was done taking worthless points. My numbers look pretty bad at this so far this year, but I think it will improve. I just have to stop over analysing and clean it up a bit.
Duke +370 — The kind of play it won’t bother me to lose. Kind of obvious without putting too much thought in, I could never get away from this and wouldn’t want to, so I put it in at the open.
That’s all so far, but I will add. I just think I might do better to add late.
Priced in?: Virginia +450, NCSU +370 (I’ll probably play this), BGSU +260, Hawaii, Rice.
Longshots? (I’ll probably leave it alone this week, but): UNLV, EMU for Mastiffs, or Great Danes, or whatever, but longshot betting actually requires more detail work and I doubt I’ll find the energy. UCLA, same deal. Idaho. I think eventually they surprise a 1A team but value is diminished at this point.
Totals:
I missed the open this week. I only took 2 early:
Virginia/GT Over 37
Oklahoma/KSU Under 71.5 — This one went back up after going down. I don’t know why.
Added one a short while ago on the prospect of better than anticipated weather in Chapel Hill:
BC/UNC Over 41.5 — In fair weather, that’s a very low number.
Again sorry about the minimal input and weak plays recently. I hope to change both very soon.
JumpOnBoard
CTG Partner
GL to you and all the other texas exes..
RJ Esq
Prick Since 1974
You know that the Texas Alum Association is officially known as "Texas Exes", right?
Just like Buckeye Alums are known as "Ohio Correctional Department Prisoner ___".
Adding:
Kansas ML (+100)
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