CFB Week 8

Yanks27Sox9

Yanks27Sox9

CTG Partner
Can you believe that we're already at the midway point of the season? Seems a bit unreal to me that the season is going by so quickly. Before we know it, we'll be looking at bowl match-ups, lol, snacking on leftover turkey sandwiches. Thanks in large part to a bad Thursday night, and Stanford shitting the bed in Utah's guest room on Saturday, I went 5-5 last week, down .40 of a unit. Guess the silver lining is that I've avoided any major hiccups to date. Hopefully, that remains the case...if I'm not winning, of course. Anyhow, as always, will update this 1st post as I make plays during the week.



Saturday 10/19
Notre Dame (-2.5) for 1
UCLA (+6) for 1
Arizona (-4) for 1
MichSt(-18) to Bama(-19) to Wisky(-4) for 1 to win 1
BYU/Houston under 62.5 for 3/4
Nevada/BoiseSt over 67 for 3/4
Baylor TT over 54.5 for 3/4
UNLV/FresnoSt over 73.5 for 3/4
WashSt(+45.5) to OregonSt(-4) for 3/4 to win 3/4
Clemson (+3) for 3/4
WashSt/Oregon ov66 to OSU/Cal ov64.5 for 1/2 to win 1/2
Missouri (+3) for 1/2
BallSt(-11) to Buffalo(-10) to Rice(-8.5) for 3/4 to win 3/4
Washington (+3) @ +100 for 3/4



Week #1: 11-5, +5.835
Week #2: 5-1, +4.450
Week #3: 9-5, +2.675
Week #4: 7-7, -0.075
Week #5: 6-6, +0.650
Week #6: 6-3-1, +3.600
Week #7: 5-5, -0.400
YTD: 49-32-1, +16.735


Good luck this weekend!!! :cheers:
 
Last edited:
from the end of last week's thread...

5-5, -.40 this weekend. started in an 0-2 thursday hole, thought i was climbing out, then stanford shit the bed a gotdamned week too early.

washington played a game they should've covered the 14 pts, minus two aspects...two too many turnovers, and price wasn't nearly as good as he needed to be. but more importantly, their defense flat out just wore down. it's been a helluva stretch. might be the best 2 loss team in the country right now, lol.

but stanford really fucked me. hogan's been a complete POS the last couple weeks, the HC is playing things way too safe, and they've (seemingly) got no energy/spark. not only did they cost me two losses yesterday, against an (underrated but) inferior opponent...they completely fucked up all line value to the UCLA game this coming weekend. and that pisses me off the most! i wanted a big, fat +10 this morning...yet not not quite a TD, following two poor Cardinal performances in a row.
(this also kills the line value for when they play the ducks. gonna have to lay much more than i wanted there, dammit.)

anyhow, bumping/updating...cuz a play for week 8 is coming...and i don't have time to make a new thread/etc.
 
another from the end of last week's thread...

for Week #8...

Notre Dame (-2.5) for 1

played it as soon as the line came up for me. fwiw, only made ND a 6.5 pt favorite here with my PR #s...but the play is about more than just numbers.

anyhow, been looking for line value all morning...but getting frustrated...so this may be it for now.



(fwiw, i did some more work on my PR #s the last couple days. now i make the domers a 5 pt home favorite here.)
 
ok...thread's up, and what's relevant is brought over from last week's thread. i'll begin adding more plays tonight...though it's kind of a tricky week in the Pac-12, imo...just due to the nature of things, situations, scheduling, and so forth. in any case, be back tonight with more stuff.


interesting personal note on the usc/notre dame game, fwiw.
my school, CSULB, abandoned it's football program during my time there. so w/out a team of my own, and having friends who went to UCLA...as well as a gf there for a while...i adopted the Bruins in the early 90s. but the rest of my family is split between a few colleges. for example, my aunt and little sister are going to south bend for the game this saturday. my aunt, a devout catholic, is a ND alum...while my sister, forgive her, is a USC alum. two italian ladies, drinking, and representing their respective schools in Indiana...good times!!! not sure if i'll tell them who i bet on though, lol, and 'take sides' in this family battle. hope they have a good time though...especially my aunt/godmother.
 
Not intending to sway you, doubt I could anyway, but I think USC is gonna go on a little run here now that the trash has been taken out...
 
53percent said:
Not intending to sway you, doubt I could anyway, but I think USC is gonna go on a little run here now that the trash has been taken out...
Click to expand...

no worries, bud. know a few sharp players that will take usc this week.

usc got a boost early vs zona, no doubt. truth be told, they're not as bad as they've been to pre-lane firing...but they're also not as good as they were early in that zona game. the pendulum will settle somewhere in the middle...prolly closer to the team that almost blew the zona game in the 2nd half, btw.
they don't have a solid QB, they've got injuries at skill/critical positions, and they're still short on depth/scholarships. flip side, they still have a ton of world class athletes...just not a true HC to lead them, like they ever did lol.

usc's got 7 games left. imo, they lose 4 or 5 of them. stanford, ucla, and notre dame is three...then they'll lose one of utah or oregon st as well, if not both. all issues fucking this "team" up cannot be solved by simply giving lane the boot, imo.
 
five additions to make...

UCLA (+6) for 1
Arizona (-4) for 1
MichSt(-18) to Bama(-19) to Wisky(-4) for 1 to win 1
BYU/Houston under 62.5 for 3/4
Nevada/BoiseSt over 67 for 3/4

everything but the teaser, obviously, is at -110. gonna be a large card, because i've got a ton of leans left that i'll post up in a bit.

like i said before, stanford screwed up any line value this week by losing to utah. still had to take my bruins though. revenge, and stanford isn't 100%.

the arizona line is right where it should be too, imo. but this is utah's first trip outta state, after knocking off a top 5 team...so a huge let down spot.

lastly, the teaser and the totals should be self-explanatory.
 
now, my (10) leans...

Missouri (+3)
Rice (-18)
Clemson (+3)
Oregon St (-10.5)

Fresno St TT ov48 (?)
Baylor TT ov55 (?)

UW/ASU over 65.5
OSU/Cal over 68.5

UW/ASU ???
Wash St/Oregon ???


i'm guessing at what the team total #s will be. but in terms of the last two leans with all the question marks, those are still to be determined.
as of the moment, for the wash st/oregon game, i'm deciding between the Oregon 1H and the Oregon team total. need to see both #s first.
and the UW/ASU game is by far the trickiest of the bunch. bottom line, i'm trying to get a better read (difficult from a distance) on washington. they are the better team in this matchup. that said, if they're spent...after 3 straight tough games, especially the last two...at stanford, and hm to oregon...then it's a good situational spot to take the 'lessor' team at home, rested off of colorado. the history of this matchup, the situation...homecoming, the huskies schedule of late, etc...and the overall health all point to ASU. but that's why i want a better read on UW first...because despite all that, if they can re-focus for another big game here, they are simply the better team on the field...with the better coaching. anyways, that's why this game is giving me problems...and why i just want more info before committing. trying to see if i can find where UW's head's at, if that makes sense.
 
Yanks27Sox7 said:
Wash St/Oregon ???

as of the moment, for the wash st/oregon game, i'm deciding between the Oregon 1H and the Oregon team total. need to see both #s first.
Click to expand...

24...not the old tv show...not cano's #...the 1st half line. set just high enough to prolly keep me off that play, dammit. :(
 
drop Missouri, Rice, the UW/ASU over, etc from my list of leans somewhere above.


4 additions (from those same leans) tonight though...

Baylor TT over 54.5 for 3/4
UNLV/FresnoSt over 73.5 for 3/4
WashSt(+45.5) to OregonSt(-4) for 3/4 to win 3/4
Clemson (+3) for 3/4

went to my old betus acct to play the baylor team total tonight. they might not reach 70 this time at home, but it should be close.
was gonna also hit the fresno st team total at 49, but decided that i liked the over for the game better. post-RAS, so a bad # here.
didn't like the # on the oregon 1st half...didn't like the back & forth line mvmt (some RLM) with oregon st/cal...but i did like bringing these two road teams together in this particular teaser. my PR #s made Oregon a 34.5 fav @ home, and Cal a 16 pt dog @ home, fwiw. the typical Oregon home game this year is 55-56 to 16-17...and other than Leach maybe scheming a few more points for wazzou, i don't see much different happening here. and as for the beaver game...cal can certainly chuck it, so this removes the backdoor...as the bears still have major issues on the defensive side of the ball...and that's not Oregon St's strong suit either, lol.
and finally a play on clemson. tbh, my gut says the historical trends continue here...and the home team wins straight up. don't worry though, clemson will find a loss somewhere down the stretch...somehow/some way.


lastly, here are my remaining leans...

OSU/Cal over
Wash St/Oregon over
and the UW/ASU side

still looking, reading, etc in regards to the UW/ASU game. but there's a very good chance that i add these remaining leans. it's quite possible i tease those 2 overs the same way i teased the sides of the same two games. we'll see.
 
at the midway point of the season...think there are 14 unbeaten teams remaining...but here's my current Top 20, according to my PR #s (not a poll ranking, obviously), if interested...


[TABLE="width: 192"]
<colgroup><col><col></colgroup><tbody>[TR]
[TD]118.36[/TD]
[TD]Oregon
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]115.42[/TD]
[TD]Alabama
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]111.28[/TD]
[TD]Florida State
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]109.62[/TD]
[TD]Baylor
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]108.26[/TD]
[TD]LSU
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]106.86[/TD]
[TD]Clemson
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]106.09[/TD]
[TD]Ohio State
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]105.34[/TD]
[TD]Stanford
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]105.17[/TD]
[TD]Texas A&M
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]105.01[/TD]
[TD]South Carolina
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]104.30[/TD]
[TD]UCLA
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]104.20[/TD]
[TD]Wisconsin
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]104.03[/TD]
[TD]Louisville
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]103.78[/TD]
[TD]Washington
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]103.74[/TD]
[TD]Georgia
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]102.55[/TD]
[TD]Arizona State
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]102.37[/TD]
[TD]Florida
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]102.26[/TD]
[TD]Missouri
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]101.99[/TD]
[TD]Miami-FL
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]101.01[/TD]
[TD]BYU
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


considering tonight...wonder if, when i update the #s again, Miami will slip out. and if not them, who will? both Oklahoma teams are at 21/22, right on the heals of Miami & BYU. in fact, here are my next ten...


[TABLE="width: 192"]
<colgroup><col><col></colgroup><tbody>[TR]
[TD]100.77[/TD]
[TD]Oklahoma State[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]100.64[/TD]
[TD]Oklahoma [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]100.36[/TD]
[TD]Texas Tech [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]99.76[/TD]
[TD]Texas [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]99.06[/TD]
[TD]Oregon State [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]98.96[/TD]
[TD]Michigan State [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]98.21[/TD]
[TD]Mississippi [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]98.20[/TD]
[TD]Virginia Tech[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]98.18[/TD]
[TD]Notre Dame[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]97.54[/TD]
[TD]Nebraska [/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


i put a shitload of work into this (these #s) each and every week. hopefully it'll continue to pay off, lol, and remain worth the effort.
 
Nevada/BoiseSt over 67 for 3/4
Click to expand...

Curious how you see this game working out? Do you have a point projection for each team, as in think Boise will be closer to covering or Nevada?

Thanks for posting your PR #s, I don't have power ratings but can learn from yours.

Best of luck to you.
 
s--k said:
Curious how you see this game working out? Do you have a point projection for each team, as in think Boise will be closer to covering or Nevada?

Thanks for posting your PR #s, I don't have power ratings but can learn from yours.

Best of luck to you.
Click to expand...

my #s made Boise a 22.5 pt home favorite, fwiw. here's how i've got it, personally...
Boise = 97.47 + 4.50 for HFA
Nevada = 79.37
So 22.6, rounded to the nearest half point.

Aside from my #s though, I still think the line is pretty damn tight. Gun to the head, I might actually side with Nevada getting a slight backdoor here. And I say that in large part because I expect their offense, led by Fajardo, to have some success of their own. This is a part of why I played the over in the game.

The total I played was over 67. Assuming that's set well, and considering the spread, we'd be looking at roughly a 45 to 22 Boise St win. However, I obviously see more points being scored in this one...and would still play it at the current 69 points.

nevada's 0-3 away...giving up 51 to SDST, 62 to FSU, and 58 to UCLA. but they also gave up 42 to AF at home. bottom line...Boise won't reach the 60s, like they did @ home vs So Piss and UTM...but I think they definitely reach the low 50s against this defense. imo, between 51 & 53.
conversely, Boise's defense isn't what it's been in years past...giving up 41 at fresno, or 38 at washington...or even 23 to a Utah St team w/out it's QB. in other words, i definitely see Nevada being able to put up more than that 22 number...based on a 67 total for the game. this offense can move the ball and be fairly effective. anyhow, i've got them being able to put up between 28 & 30 here.
so best case, if i'm right/close, is that boise squeaks out a cover...but imo, it's just as likely that nevada squeaks out a backdoor.
that said, i've got the total coming in at between 79 and 83 points for the game...so that's why i took the over here...and never really considered a side, tbh.

anyhow, hope that helps. and thanks, bud. :cheers:


GoIrish! said:
best of luck this week...nice record this year
Click to expand...

thank you, Irish. i certainly hope your team kicks some trojan ass tomorrow. :cheers:
 
Yanks27Sox7 said:
my #s made Boise a 22.5 pt home favorite, fwiw. here's how i've got it, personally...
Boise = 97.47 + 4.50 for HFA
Nevada = 79.37
So 22.6, rounded to the nearest half point.

Aside from my #s though, I still think the line is pretty damn tight. Gun to the head, I might actually side with Nevada getting a slight backdoor here. And I say that in large part because I expect their offense, led by Fajardo, to have some success of their own. This is a part of why I played the over in the game.

The total I played was over 67. Assuming that's set well, and considering the spread, we'd be looking at roughly a 45 to 22 Boise St win. However, I obviously see more points being scored in this one...and would still play it at the current 69 points.

nevada's 0-3 away...giving up 51 to SDST, 62 to FSU, and 58 to UCLA. but they also gave up 42 to AF at home. bottom line...Boise won't reach the 60s, like they did @ home vs So Piss and UTM...but I think they definitely reach the low 50s against this defense. imo, between 51 & 53.
conversely, Boise's defense isn't what it's been in years past...giving up 41 at fresno, or 38 at washington...or even 23 to a Utah St team w/out it's QB. in other words, i definitely see Nevada being able to put up more than that 22 number...based on a 67 total for the game. this offense can move the ball and be fairly effective. anyhow, i've got them being able to put up between 28 & 30 here.
so best case, if i'm right/close, is that boise squeaks out a cover...but imo, it's just as likely that nevada squeaks out a backdoor.
that said, i've got the total coming in at between 79 and 83 points for the game...so that's why i took the over here...and never really considered a side, tbh.

anyhow, hope that helps. and thanks, bud. :cheers:
Click to expand...

That was much appreciated. Thanks for taking the time. Agree with UCLA and Arizona and will continue some of your totals UNR/Boise included. Crush it tomorrow!
 
according to ur analysis on the boise game....
what u think of nevada tt over?
thanks n good luck this week...
 
Aztec4Life said:
With ya on UCLA buddy! BOL as always Yanks!

:cheers:
Click to expand...

thank you, Aztec. appreciate it, buddy. hope it's a good one for both of us. :shake:


s--k said:
That was much appreciated. Thanks for taking the time. Agree with UCLA and Arizona and will continue some of your totals UNR/Boise included. Crush it tomorrow!
Click to expand...

good deal, and no worries. glad it helped, bud.
i've got a lot of high totals this week. fwiw, i'm much more comfortable with spreads/sides...in terms of my PR #s and so forth. but some of these matchups, and not just in the pac-12, simply set up for a boatload of points...at least on paper.
anyhow, hope we all cash big time tomorrow. :cheers:



number2 said:
according to ur analysis on the boise game....
what u think of nevada tt over?
thanks n good luck this week...
Click to expand...

i actually like both team totals going over. i could be off base...you never know until it's been played...but if my analysis is close/solid, there's a 5 to 7 point difference with the NV TT line.
but again, that's why i'm on the over for the game...because my #s give me more of a cushion in case something is off a bit w/ my take on the game as a whole...since there's an 11 to 15 point difference with the game total.
so if i'm off by one score (a TD), by one side or the other, i'll still get the win here...if that's makes sense. the more leeway, the better.
 
fwiw, here's the bottom 10 (the only 10 below 70.00) according to my PR #s...


[TABLE="width: 192"]
<colgroup><col><col></colgroup><tbody>[TR]
[TD]52.83[/TD]
[TD]Georgia State[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]57.24
[/TD]
[TD]NewMexicoState
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]60.22[/TD]
[TD]Idaho [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]62.51[/TD]
[TD]FIU[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]63.27[/TD]
[TD]Miami-OH
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]64.16
[/TD]
[TD]WesternMichigan
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]64.43[/TD]
[TD]Eastern Michigan [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]65.20[/TD]
[TD]So Mississippi[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]66.11[/TD]
[TD]Massachusetts[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]67.20[/TD]
[TD]UTEP[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


i'm bringing this up, because i did something basically fading 3 of these crap teams.
(didn't do all of them. there was more reasoning behind the 3 i picked. for example, i didn't fade So Piss because ECU's got a bunch of injuries...and they're coming off 3 straight on the road. and i didn't fade EMU for 2 reasons...the WR death, and cuz Ohio sucked so badly the previous week. just mentioning these examples because there was a method to the madness, in terms of the play/teaser i'll be posting in a bit.)
 
(hopefully) my final additions for the week...

WashSt/Oregon ov66 to OSU/Cal ov64.5 for 1/2 to win 1/2
Missouri (+3) for 1/2
BallSt(-11) to Buffalo(-10) to Rice(-8.5) for 3/4 to win 3/4
Washington (+3) @ +100 for 3/4

i say "hopefully," lol, because i've got my eye on a prop bet manana. you'll probably be able to figure it out based upon what i say below regarding these additions.

already teased the two sides in these games...and i mentioned last night that i'd probably tease the two overs as well. the reason it's a half play is because i've got too many totals for my taste this week, and so many games going over the numbers as well. but considering the typical Oregon Ducks score this year in a home game, the 73 was simply set too tight. and considering how touts/etc have moved up the Beaver/Bear total this week, the number simply got away from me. so to make it all still work from my perspective, i teased the two totals...which makes it more attractive to me.

i had dumped the missouri lean the other night. well, what can i say, other than it's back in play lol. kept coming back to the game in my capping. with missouri at home, i make them the favorite here...so ended up making it a half play (after all) on the home dog.

the next teaser is why i threw up my PR #s for the bottom 10 teams. made rice a 26 pt rd fav over nmst (my 2nd worst team in CFB). made ball st a 21.5 pt rd fav over wmu (my 6th worst team in CFB). and made buffalo a 21 pt hm fav over umass (my 9th worst team in CFB). anyhow, as i mentioned in the other post, there are other reasons behind this teaser. hell, i almost played rice straight against the spread...as it was a lean until the other night. but to keep it quick & easy, call the teaser simply a fade of the bottom feeders according to my PR #s.

last, but not least...washington. i wasn't able to get into their heads to see if they've recovered from playing stanford and oregon these last two weeks. wish i could've, but there just aren't any crystal balls.
situationally though, this is a great spot for ASU. in theory, UW is spent...where ASU is rested at home, for their homecoming game, where it'll be on the hot side. and even my PR #s, considering HFA, make ASU a 2 pt favorite here.
so why did i take washington? sure ASU's owned this match-up historically...but they haven't played since 2010, i think. that's the past...this is now.
anyways, there are 5 main reasons i'm on UW tomorrow...even though i'm a fan of what ASU's building, and have been on the Sun Devils a few times this season so far. but from least important to most important...
- UW is simply the better football team on the field tomorrow, and the better coached team as well.
- UW cannot afford to be spent...as they cannot afford to suffer a 3 game losing streak for the 5th consecutive year...considering where they've come from, and where they want to go.
- Stanford is the one common opponent to date. Both UW and ASU played them on the road, but UW was much more competitive...played much better.
- despite the last two games against Stanford and Oregon, Washington is the #16 defense in the country in terms of the yards per play metric. and to me, that is very important. ASU can obviously move the ball, especially thru the air...at least when the receivers aren't dropping passes. but the Huskies pass defense has been very solid to date, as has their pressure on the QB. i know the rushing defense doesn't look as solid, but when you really look into it, they are pretty decent. the Oregon game distorts the rush defense, especially late in that game...when UW truly was spent. in any case, assuming UW isn't already "spent" for this game at ASU, that yards per play allowed is a huge factor in terms of how i believe they'll be able to limit the ASU offense...as Stanford did before them.
- lastly, on the other side of that, the ASU defense allows 4.6 yards per carry this season. we all saw how wisky and stanford power ran on them. we even saw (an almost one dimensional) usc offense get some big time rushing yards in that loss. have you been noticing what Bishop Sankey's been doing this year? did you see what he did, how he ran, against a very solid/stout Oregon defense? Sankey's going to have a huge day tomorrow, imho. (insert prop bet, lol.) but the bottom line here...the ASU run defense hasn't been (or can't be) fixed all of a sudden...so if Sankey's pounding the ball, as he's done all year against better run defenses (like stanford and oregon)...UW will control the clock and pace of the game...while keeping Kelly on the sidelines as much as possible.

that's a lot of writing for a 3/4's unit play, lol. but if it weren't for all the situations in ASU's favor tomorrow, this (UW) game would honestly be a much larger play for me.
hopefully, Washington is recovered from their last two battles...because if so, and if there aren't some crazy UW turnovers, this game will look a lot like the Stanford/ASU game when it's all said and done. said it before, and i'll say it again...right now, Washington is the best 2 loss team in the county.
 
Basically see the same things in regards to Washington. The main difference is your balls are bigger than mine and you bet it. But seriously, sometimes I have what I call an alarm bell in my head ... and it is just sort of ringing in the back of my head. I can't point to why ( other than the scheduling you already mentioned ) the alarm is going off but for some reason the game just feels wrong to me. I may change my mind by kickoff as I am in complete agreement that they are the better football team. Better coach, better defense, better rb , better qb ..... it's usually ok to back that grouping at a number like this no matter venue. I think live betting may be offered on the game and I might just wait to see how Washington looks the first few drives to see if they are mentally and physically ready and then jump on board ( partner! ) huskies.. or I might add. I dunno. For a week where I did less work than any week prior, I sure have a lot invested out there already. Anyway, always respect your thoughts on cfb and especially so with pac10/12 stuff so maybe it will give the confidence to pull the trigger.

I am going against ya in the Missouri game just from the standpoint of one week of action creating such a drastic line change in the same week where one team who is getting the new respect is also without their veteran starting qb against dare I say a top 5 defense? Then again 14 fd might be enough to cover.
 
VK said:
Basically see the same things in regards to Washington. The main difference is your balls are bigger than mine and you bet it. But seriously, sometimes I have what I call an alarm bell in my head ... and it is just sort of ringing in the back of my head. I can't point to why ( other than the scheduling you already mentioned ) the alarm is going off but for some reason the game just feels wrong to me. I may change my mind by kickoff as I am in complete agreement that they are the better football team. Better coach, better defense, better rb , better qb ..... it's usually ok to back that grouping at a number like this no matter venue. I think live betting may be offered on the game and I might just wait to see how Washington looks the first few drives to see if they are mentally and physically ready and then jump on board ( partner! ) huskies.. or I might add. I dunno. For a week where I did less work than any week prior, I sure have a lot invested out there already. Anyway, always respect your thoughts on cfb and especially so with pac10/12 stuff so maybe it will give the confidence to pull the trigger.

I am going against ya in the Missouri game just from the standpoint of one week of action creating such a drastic line change in the same week where one team who is getting the new respect is also without their veteran starting qb against dare I say a top 5 defense? Then again 14 fd might be enough to cover.
Click to expand...

i hear ya, bro. my card is too large as well.
i struggled with this game all week...at least until i realized that i'd never get a clear picture into their frame of mind entering the game. if they really are spent...wasted from the last two games...we'll all know pretty quickly. obviously i'm betting they won't be spent though....like they were at the end of the ducks game.
but yeah, whenever a lower ranked team is favored...alarms tend to go off. not to mention all the situations going against them. that said, ASU is almost ranked...honorably mentioned, lol...and probably should be ranked...just as with HFA, they should be the slight fav in this spot. doesn't mean they're the better team though, which we agree on.
 
made it thru the 1st page of CFB threads. i know there are a lot of week #8 threads sitting on the 2nd page, and i'm sorry i couldn't bump them all, reading each one of them. please don't take offense...i'm just running outta gas late tonight. old age setting in, lol.

but for everyone where i didn't make it into your thread tonight...good luck tomorrow, and cash those tickets, boys.

:shake:
 
Yanks27Sox7 said:
Saturday 10/19
Notre Dame (-2.5) for 1
UCLA (+6) for 1
Arizona (-4) for 1
MichSt(-18) to Bama(-19) to Wisky(-4) for 1 to win 1
BYU/Houston under 62.5 for 3/4
Nevada/BoiseSt over 67 for 3/4
Baylor TT over 54.5 for 3/4
UNLV/FresnoSt over 73.5 for 3/4
WashSt(+45.5) to OregonSt(-4) for 3/4 to win 3/4
Clemson (+3) for 3/4
WashSt/Oregon ov66 to OSU/Cal ov64.5 for 1/2 to win 1/2
Missouri (+3) for 1/2
BallSt(-11) to Buffalo(-10) to Rice(-8.5) for 3/4 to win 3/4
Washington (+3) @ +100 for 3/4





Good luck this weekend!!! :cheers:
Click to expand...

I see lots of winners on his card

GL Yanks
 
fuck me...that was not the Saturday I had imagined, capped, or planned for...dammit. honestly, it feels like i got my ass kicked today...even though the final tally was 7-7, down .9 of a unit. not happy at all, especially with a few of my totals.


anyways, updated record after Week 8...

Week #1: 11-5, +5.835
Week #2: 5-1, +4.450
Week #3: 9-5, +2.675
Week #4: 7-7, -0.075
Week #5: 6-6, +0.650
Week #6: 6-3-1, +3.600
Week #7: 5-5, -0.400
Week #8: 7-7, -0.900
YTD: 56-39-1, +15.835


still avoiding the horribly bad week, i guess...but these .500 saturdays...4 of them now...have really put the breaks on growing this into a great season.

be back in a bit to recap things...mainly where i went wrong today. :(
 
7-7...so looking at the 7 losses...


UCLA (+6)...i'm upset the Bruins lost, of course...but not really with the wager/play, believe it or not. I thought it was a great game, and could've gone either way. Stanford played great defense. Sure, they won by 14...but the last TD was meaningless, almost garbage time, after the game was decided. In my mind, it was a one score (7 pt) game.
There were lots of points in the game I can go too...but for me, the turning point was the dropped pick six that should've tied the game at 17. Hundley had just fucked up, giving Stanford a 14 pt lead...then engineered the Bruins best drive of the game to make it 17-10. Then in Stanford's next possession, they force a punt...but missed out on what looked like a gimme pick six in the process. All the remaining Bruin drives started with a solid 1st down play, only to be followed with yet another stupid penalty...which took all momentum away, and it was basically nothing but 3 and outs from there.
Anyways, can chalk it up to youthful mistakes...but after missing that pick six opportunity...followed by the 2nd down penalties that killed any possible momentum from building again...it was a well deserved 7 pt win for Stanford...up until the garbage TD at the end. (The other main factor was losing the linebacker. Stanford took advantage of that, running right at the freshman replacement about every time late in the game.)

the 3 team teaser that included Michigan St...that was just Yag on the Spartans part. should've been an easy win. their defense was up to the task, but their offense (against purdue, lol) was absolutely pathetic & disgraceful. anyhow, not too upset with this one...cuz like i said, it should've been a cake walk win for this teaser.

the BYU/Houston under...this is absolutely my worst play of the season to date. my #s had this finishing in the low 50s...yet they damn near hit the over in the 1st quarter, lol. it settled down to more of how i capped the game in the remaining 3 quarters...so maybe the 1st Q was somewhat of an abnormality...but damn, i can't recall a time when i've been so gotdamned wrong with a game. (at least until a couple more paragraphs, lol.)

the Nevada/Boise St over...another horrible total play today. obviously, i was way off base here. not as badly as the other, but still bad. fuckin' boise was sloppy on offense, but neither side approached what i had them doing in this game.

the UNLV/Fresno St over...basically, the same as the paragraph above. UNLV is heartless, and didn't even try most of the 2nd half. and shame on Fresno as well. definitely no style points for that POS outing.

Clemson (+3)...if it wasn't for the BYU/Houston total, this would've been the most wrong i've been about a game this season. they never had a chance, and were shown to be complete frauds yet again...in terms of the BCS game.

Washington (+3)...well, they sure were spent after all. had an ok 1st quarter, then completely fell apart. the 2nd quarter was a disaster. really thought they'd be ok after stanford/oregon, but they obviously weren't. price flat out sucked. and even sankey, who ASU keyed on, was totally ineffective w/out any help. from the lines on out to the skill positions, it was all about being healthy/fresh/etc...as ASU whipped up on the "better team" that limped into their building, and had to crawl out with their tail between their legs.
remember this situation though, as it comes up again in 2 weeks. unfortunately, the Bruins also play (lose two in a row) to Stanford and Oregon in back to back weeks. thankfully, it's only Colorado on 11/2...so the win should still be there...just wouldn't bet on the cover, considering what it took outta washington this week.


there were some good things today...but those were the losses, and i always focus on what went wrong. not gonna win them all...or be right all the time...so not bent about ucla or even washington. what i am disgusted with were those totals though. 3 really bad ones, where it wasn't even close. add in clemson to the mix, and that's why this 7-7 week felt more like an ass kicking.

anyways, that's it...time to turn the page, and prepare #s for Week #9.
 
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