CFB Week 8

BiffTFinancial

BiffTFinancial

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Been trying something new, thought I'd share it. Working in trying to limit plays and stick to what I really like. So, each week, I'm trying to narrow down to my fave of each of these:

Fave: Michigan -24
Dog: Duke +14
Over: South Carolina/Mizzou over 59'
Under: Air Force/Navy under 37
TT Over: Memphis TT over 34' (+100)
TT Under: Alabama TT under 29' (-115)

all -110 unless, laying 1u unless noted otherwise.

edit: to clarify, all plays are to win 1u, misstated that initially
 
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Initial Thoughts:
Like UM -24', Mizzou -7 (painted -7' now, missed it, may come back)

Duke +14 looks good, that may be the one

S Carolina/Mizzou over 59' is the one, like it better that Army/LSU over 57' (Kelly might back off 2H rather than running it up on academy, plus as bad as LSU is on defense, Army relatively less likely to take full advantage given how little they pass)

AF/Navy under 37', PSU/OSU under 46' (seeing that got hit this afternoon), Duke/FSU under 49, UT/Bama under 48 all worth a look

Mizzou TT over (33?) looks good, but like game over better and not looking to double up

Buckeyes and Noles TT unders look good, as does Bama. Figuring OSU around 26 (maybe juiced), Noles 31', Bama 28?
 
B.A.R. said:
Like that over quite a bit.

Would lean Mizzou TT as well.

Those on my card, at least one, weather dependent
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Definitely don't want the wrong end of midwest weather this time of year. Columbia forecast right now calls for 8-10 mph winds and little precip, though that almost certainly will change.

I do think weather could have an impact in Columbus.
 
BiffTFinancial said:
adding Air Force/Navy under 37
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You got a awesome number here, great job bro. I post bout playing the service academy unders every year, no capping required! These 2 have gone under 16 of last 20 i believe (something like that), I don’t love this one as much as the ones army involved in but still pretty damn great. The problem is they usually have these guys total higher, they havnt sniffed 37 the last 2 seasons tho. Id jump all over a 37!!! Now it been hammered down to freaking 33.5!! Of course this one the only weeks this season I hadn’t been able to look at card much till end the week, actually lost a few good numbers on unders I liked., just not sure I can play it at this point?? Sucks. Again great job getting in front of that!

Glad to see you posting my friend!
 
BiffTFinancial said:
adding Michigan -24 to finalize the card

BOL to all this weekend.
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I hate laying big numbers and I’ll prob screw over everyone on big blue by doing this but think I gotta play them too. It just hard to see a world sparty scores more than a loan td and don’t see why Michigan won’t score 40+??
 
No way would I lay the -14 w noles, I agree with Duke but scared to play them. I expect duke will have a great plan that keeps this game incredibly competitive for at least a half. I do worry at some point duke d either gonna wear down or duke offense is put into a position they have to throw in obvious passing situations. Have a feeling despite duke playing with them most the game those issues could lead to noles making the final score not representative of how close game may have been. Or I could be crazy, lol.

Maybe it just me being greedy but if I did play duke I would def parlay with the under. Of course this means the as game will look nothing like I expect and it a total track meet! Lol.
 
2daBank said:
You got a awesome number here, great job bro. I post bout playing the service academy unders every year, no capping required! These 2 have gone under 16 of last 20 i believe (something like that), I don’t love this one as much as the ones army involved in but still pretty damn great. The problem is they usually have these guys total higher, they havnt sniffed 37 the last 2 seasons tho. Id jump all over a 37!!! Now it been hammered down to freaking 33.5!! Of course this one the only weeks this season I hadn’t been able to look at card much till end the week, actually lost a few good numbers on unders I liked., just not sure I can play it at this point?? Sucks. Again great job getting in front of that!

Glad to see you posting my friend!
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Thanks bank, I figured QB news was coming from both teams and got super fortunate getting in front of the move. Of course, I’ve seen plenty of CLV go up in smoke before, here’s hoping this one holds up.
 
BiffTFinancial said:
Thanks bank, I figured QB news was coming from both teams and got super fortunate getting in front of the move. Of course, I’ve seen plenty of CLV go up in smoke before, here’s hoping this one holds up.
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Ah yea, the stupid qb’s hurt, I do remember hearing that now. I was thinking ppl had finally figured out to just hammer these service academy unders, lol. That sucks. I don’t care who the hell playing qb, it could be mahomes and Brady running these offenses for all I care id still play under 37! Lol. 33 is kinda tough, especially now that I know the move is injury related, I have a hard time thinking qbs worth many points for these teams. I’m sure someone would argue this but since I don’t cap these and just blindly bet under every year it certainly doesn’t matter to me who playing qb!! Nothing i can do with 33. I can’t recall playing a under bekiw 34 in any fb game. 37 ideal since 20-17 feels like ceiling w these teams barring ot, think last service under I lost was a ot game, I recall winning one or 2 even w ot, lol. Gl buddy.
 
2daBank said:
Looks like nice day In Columbia cept I’m seeing wind, no clue how much wind tho?
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KJ said:
Wind only goes down as the game goes on

View attachment 78608
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I capped it with 10-12 mph wind and still got to close to 70 on my projection. The 15 mph that's expected is more (and getting more impactful) and probably explains why the line when down a bit (I'd adjust another 1-2 points based on the revised forecast, so makes sense). Great info KJ that it's expected to die down over the course of the game.
 
Off to my first game of the day - 7 year-old flag football at 8 am. Can't wait to be on the couch at noon for OSU/PSU. Have a great day, everybody.
 
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BiffTFinancial said:
I capped it with 10-12 mph wind and still got to close to 70 on my projection. The 15 mph that's expected is more (and getting more impactful) and probably explains why the line when down a bit (I'd adjust another 1-2 points based on the revised forecast, so makes sense). Great info KJ that it's expected to die down over the course of the game.
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Dang. Ppl really change total based off wind from 12 to 15 mph? Shit. I’m not nearly this advanced! For most part 15 or less I ignore it. Start hearing gust in 20s i pay attention. I like to know if it blowing endzone to endzone or across field. I tend to think when it blows from endzone to endzone it easier for qbs, the effect on kickers basically cancels itself for me since it enhances one way and hurts other.
 
Going to key over in that game with a few MLs in parlays. Didn't work well with Wazzou last week but it's done well for me in the past. I don't see wind mattering at all in this game.
 
2daBank said:
Dang. Ppl really change total based off wind from 12 to 15 mph? Shit. I’m not nearly this advanced! For most part 15 or less I ignore it. Start hearing gust in 20s i pay attention. I like to know if it blowing endzone to endzone or across field. I tend to think when it blows from endzone to endzone it easier for qbs, the effect on kickers basically cancels itself for me since it enhances one way and hurts other.
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Great point on the wind direction. I need to get that advanced (like i used to for MLB totals - but the available tools are better for bases. Agree that it doesn't have a major impact on the game until it's in the 20s. But yeah, I adjust 1-2 for wind 10-12 mph, 3-4 in the 15-20 range, then maybe really significant once it's in the 20s+
 
KJ said:
Going to key over in that game with a few MLs in parlays. Didn't work well with Wazzou last week but it's done well for me in the past. I don't see wind mattering at all in this game.
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I don't either. I'm seeing it now 57 some places, which has me more concerned that it's maybe Luther Burden injury status? That doesn't really concern me - Mizzou has plenty of offensive options (and S Carolina doesn't have many answers on D). So long as Cook and Rattler are healthy and in the game, gotta figure the over has a solid chance. Got 58' when 57 now available so not thrilled about that but whatever, get plenty of CLV elsewhere.

Also really like TCU/K State and UVA/UNC overs. Lean over in BC/GT but that total's heading the wrong direction.
 
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BiffTFinancial said:
I don't either. I'm seeing it now 57 some places, which has me more concerned that it's maybe Luther Burden injury status? That doesn't really concern me - Mizzou has plenty of offensive options (and S Carolina doesn't have many answers on D). So long as Cook and Rattler are healthy and in the game, gotta figure the over has a solid chance. Got 58' when 57 now available so not thrilled about that but whatever, get plenty of CLV elsewhere.

Also really like TCU/K State and UVA/UNC overs. Lean over in BC/GT but that total's heading the wrong direction.
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Yeah steam this time of the week means nothing to me
 
other sides/totals that I considered but didn't play so as to stick to the core 6 plays

faves: Memphis, K State, Mizzou
dogs: FAU
unders: UT/Bama, Duke/FSU, PSU/OSU, Ole Miss/Auburn, Rutgers/Indiana
TT overs: K State, Michigan, Colorado State, Oregon
TT unders: FSU, OSU
 
BiffTFinancial said:
I don't either. I'm seeing it now 57 some places, which has me more concerned that it's maybe Luther Burden injury status? That doesn't really concern me - Mizzou has plenty of offensive options (and S Carolina doesn't have many answers on D). So long as Cook and Rattler are healthy and in the game, gotta figure the over has a solid chance. Got 58' when 57 now available so not thrilled about that but whatever, get plenty of CLV elsewhere.

Also really like TCU/K State and UVA/UNC overs. Lean over in BC/GT but that total's heading the wrong direction.
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My only concern is I really dunno how good or bad mizzou d is? The only other team w a passing attack worth talking bout they played was lsu and the fear of lsu wr’s made it very easy to run on mizzou light boxes. This the 1st 1 dimensional mostly passing attack I can think of the d playing against. The worry for me is if the defense played well I still get the impression deep down Drinkowitz rather not air it out as much they had been the last month. Before the k-st game I had been screaming at them to open up the offense and actually use the strength of the team! Burden was usually getting his but those 1st several weeks he was basically the only guy they threw it to. Last week at uk we saw the rush attempts go way up above pass attempts again so the onus is really gonna be on scary offense to push mizzou to play the way they should!! If mizzou d can get sone stops I worry Drinkowitz will try and scale back the air attack, stupid I know, shouldn’t have to be worried a team would play to its strengths but I don’t fully trust this guy!!
 
W8 RESULTS
Fave: Michigan -24 - easy winner
Dog: Duke +14 - proper loser, Duke getting held scoreless 2H + 21 4Q Noles points killed it; could've waited and gotten 14'
Over: South Carolina/Mizzou over 59' - easy loser, takes 2 teams to get an over and S Carolina settling for 4 FGs killed it; weather not the issue; got a bad number (closed 57 some places)
Under: Air Force/Navy under 37 - easy winner
TT Over: Memphis TT over 34' (+100) - easy winner
TT Under: Alabama TT under 29' (-115) - proper loser, got a good number, defensive TD put it over

3-3 -0.35u
 
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