CFB Week 8

jimmymo

jimmymo

Beer and Betting Belong Together
OK week, with two good sized winners based on WSU kicking the shit out of the beavs.....Huskies disappointed, but did claw back for a huge 2nd half winner for me....felt like USC was the right side, but the 4Q just didn't go their way....3-3 and plus units tho.....two solid weeks in a row, which only means one thing......fade city boys

Some early ones based on lines..........


WSU +7 1/2 @ Arizona.......2 Units......gonna stick with this wazzu crew again this week, as I really believe they are legit and have no faith in AZ's defense to get stops and separate....falk is fukking good and the Oline has really improved as the year has progressed...just light years ahead of last year imo........I think this game is more of a PK on a neutral right now, although it always seems tough for the WA schools to play in AZ.....

Illinois +7 v. Wisconsin.....3 units.....have a feeling this game kicks off in the 4ish range....maybe I don't have a clue, but this number just seems stupid...wisconsin just not a good version this year and really don't think they have the offense to go on the road and secure a DD win against a pretty solid Illy team.....would love to hear thoughts from any B10 experts, but this line just seems wrong to me.....

Current leans include.........SDSU +5, Colorado +2 (pissed I missed the 3, but will gladly take plus on ML if it don't get back), Arkansas -5.5, Kentucky +11 (again, this seems way off...more like MSU -6), Alabama -15.5 (good ole boy Harvey just thinks they roll the vols..shocker)

GL Degens...........week 8 already.....damn
 
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Hmmm.....totals aren't my thing, but.....


Utah/USC UNDER 59 1/2.......2 units.....isn't this 6-8 points high? USC without staring center and LT and I think it makes a huge difference against the very stout Utah defense...just don't really see how this gets to shootout stage.....feel is gonna play a lot like the UW/USC game where both will have struggles offensively...
 
jimmymo said:
Hmmm.....totals aren't my thing, but.....


Utah/USC UNDER 59 1/2.......2 units.....isn't this 6-8 points high? USC without staring center and LT and I think it makes a huge difference against the very stout Utah defense...just don't really see how this gets to shootout stage.....feel is gonna play a lot like the UW/USC game where both will have struggles offensively...
Click to expand...


Been a few weeks running with these high totals in Utah games. Not sure if that is the result of the Oregon game or what. Here we have usc off of the Ndame game which was a shootout. 59.5 total with 3.5 pt line implies 31.5 team total for USC ... Utah has given up 17 14 24 20 24 and 18. So over a full td more than any game they have allowed for the usc team total ,... Utah 74th in the country in yards per play .... Which team is hitting mid thirties to make this total work? Utah can be had with the USC pass I think to a degree but some of the pass yards against utah are the result of the opponent trailing big and throwing to come back ... and they also ball hawk and get interceptions. Average number of plays per game for each, with Utah being pretty slow paced. I am with you on this one.
 
clowncar said:
Been a few weeks running with these high totals in Utah games. Not sure if that is the result of the Oregon game or what. Here we have usc off of the Ndame game which was a shootout. 59.5 total with 3.5 pt line implies 31.5 team total for USC ... Utah has given up 17 14 24 20 24 and 18. So over a full td more than any game they have allowed for the usc team total ,... Utah 74th in the country in yards per play .... Which team is hitting mid thirties to make this total work? Utah can be had with the USC pass I think to a degree but some of the pass yards against utah are the result of the opponent trailing big and throwing to come back ... and they also ball hawk and get interceptions. Average number of plays per game for each, with Utah being pretty slow paced. I am with you on this one.
Click to expand...

Love it VK.....my totals resume reads like a typical army football resume, so very good to see you on this as well.....UW pass rush gave SC some fits, and that was with a healthy center and LT....I would grind on offense (no mistakes) and play D if I were Utah



TheGarfather said:
Who is Peterson going to go with on Saturday night?
Click to expand...

My gut right now says Jake will be a go.....I will say something for this staff, they do a great job of not allowing information out....there is just nothing on the UW hardcore football forum, not even a opinions based on what they have heard....even if Carta-Samuels plays, I am not sure it "should" impact the line a ton......maybe Stanford -15 with browining going.....-16 1/2 with Carta-Sameuls......

what do your guys' numbers say on this line?




DD...GL this weekend.:shake:
 
Couldn't agree more about WSU. Perception is that they are a team that "lost to Portland freaking State!, and barely beat crappy Rutgers on the road," when both of those performances look rather different now. The Cougs are pretty good, and should get plenty of their own in Tucson.

Agree also on the Illy line. Wish I hadn't seen them "play" against UNC. Hard to get the image of them basically quitting in the 3rd quarter out of my head.

Like your total play as well. Hadn't looked at totals this week much.
 
Stanford/UW seems to range from 14-20 depending on who you talk to and who the QB is. I really want to play Stanford, but it has to be the right number. Can't fudge or force a play on a game like that. I have no idea where UW is supposed to find points from considering they struggled vs defenses that aren't nearly as stout as Stanford. I'd say there is a 20% chance they get shut out.
 
BOL Jimmy - pissed at myself for not playing WST last week. I'm on Arkansas this week and eyeing Ky.
 
Have a great week, bro! On Arkansas, and will take a peak at Washington State as well. Being a Texas Tech guy, it's always fun to watch Leach regardless of locale.
 
Here comes a bunch of drunk adds to night....but not before some thoughts for you gents....
i'
MR...jfc...a nice surprise to hear from you ....and love to hear your opinions.....given the chance, i'm gonna call you out (cause I'm drunk and have shared drinks with you....and I got your drunk ass back and forth to and from the shearaton up to the dive bar in teh UW village, so I get got that on you my bro)...anyway, calling you out to post more opinions....you a sharp thinker, but keep that shit to yourshelf too much...sooooo, i will make these stupid square threads evry week an you need to just drop by and give a couple thoughts...good, bad or indifferent.....don't really matter, but just remember you may just still be alive because i've got top notch drunk driving skills....good times......and we both won BIG on LSU the next day

Garf......I feel that Browning will play, but have no insight even with the HC foots board stuff...there is just no direct info, but word is that JB's injury was not structural, but just a stinger...I think the opening move up to 19 feels like someone knows that Browning will not play...although, I don't think there is a big difference with JB or CS......it got up to 19 and the UW steam came in...i think to opening line was based on out ,,.....again, the word from the boards is that JB did not suffer a shoulder injury as much as a stinger.....I think he plays....and I actually believe that it is about an 80 percent chance he starts......but, does it really matter for the number? My take is this......if we get confirmation an hour before the game that JB is going and the line drops below 17, I am gonna play the tree big...in fact, I am gonna throw 2 units on tree right now...

Timh.......heard stories aboit you bro....so, not only jealous of you cap abilities (which are fukkin TOP NOTCH), but your ability to dive down below the moral latitude at times...so please give a wave to me when down there...zki

Judge Smails......................FUKK YOU....lol.....love you bro, but we got the entire other half of cabo condo waiting for you and fam to say yes .....week before x-mas....come the 18th thru 22nd or 23rd, and get back...my kids spend 12 hours a day in the pool...and so do i drinking...wives poolside, and we take off once or twice a day to bet games at teh caliente...and then back to the pool and drinks......sun goes down, we go and eat downtown....

Play......thx bro..you are about as solid as they come.....just love your stuff. and not embarrassed to say that I tail your shit as much as anyone here.....don't say it enough, but i do fukkin apppreciate your opinions...


Am I drunk?.............of course......am I high?.....maybe.......am i gonnna go and drund bet the shit out of my acccounts? Hell yes.......be bak
 
fukk it..............................here we go for better or worse....just posting anything i bet a 2 units or more.....keeps me honest..a d sometimes make me evaluate how stupid, stupid i cam be


Kansas State +7 (120) @ texass.....2 units.......not to deflect, but this is a MW play.....fukker don't give enough opknoins, but i do pay attention

Virginia +17.5 @ North Carolina...2 units.....just a fukk stupid gut play, but jsut dont think there is this much difference.....go heels, run run away if you can....

Kentucky +12 @ Miss State...3 units......love this play, especially if there is weather...outright win for UK not out of question....drunk and just love this one

Stanford -17 v. UW......2 units.....bet it and just gonna deal with it...if CP pulls a gameplane out of his ass to compete, love teh man....not gonna happen, but they will win every game rest of season.....
I
 
Would love to join you, but that's the week we move. Had to wait until the semester was over so we didn't get the Mutumbo finger for disrupting kids' school. Next time!! Need a Rissalena cruise, too!!
 
Arkansas ... winner! Wazzou ... winner! Even took the over in the Wazzou/Zona game ... winner!
Hope you're having a great day as well, bro!!
 
good, not great smailsey.........a couple tough beats imo.....but that is the game....here we fukkin go .....drunk? check.......high? check.....ready to make a dent in the book? check

Stanford -13 v. UW........10 units....largest play in a long time......just gonna say "fuckk you" to the line move and trust my gut......dawgs struggle big fukkin time tonight
 
Good Luck Jimmy, I don't understand the line move and will just sit this one out and root for you to hit.
 
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz


gooooooo...gata..............go

fukk it....i like winning.....oh, you dsy i need a sniff....ok
 
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