my first set of plays for the weekend...
Stanford(pk) to ASU(-16) to UCLA(-16) for 1 to win 1
Colorado/Arizona St over 66 for 3/4
Oregon St/Washington St over 62 for 3/4
Washington (+14) for 1
Let's start with the teaser. My PR #s made Stanford an 11 pt rd fav, they made ASU a 27 pt hm fav, and they made UCLA a 26.5 pt hm fav. All the lines are too close to my PR #s to play straight, so i teased the three games. (That said, as my leans state, i still might play ASU &/or UCLA because i like those sides so much. Stanford, not so much, simply because it's a sandwich spot for them on the road.)
That said, even on the road, there's no way the Utes are the team that gives Stanford their first loss...so moving this to a pick em definitely works for me. ASU owns Colorado, who hasn't fared well on the road. See that Oregon St game two weeks ago, then add a little bit to the number because ASU's simply a better team than the Beavs...and cuz ASU's gonna shake off some of that ND loss @ the Buffs expense. So getting this down under 17 pts is golden, imo. Then there's UCLA. Same thing...wanted to get it below 17 pts here, with a huge game against Stanford on deck...and because Goff and the Bears offense is pretty damn good, considering. So even though the look-ahead is a factor, I think the Bruins are focused here...and will tune-up big time for the Cardinal. Cal ran it up on UCLA last year, surprisingly, but this has always been a home team series. Most importantly though, Cal's defense is an absolute mess due to injuries. The stuff they're going thru is absolutely crazy. As a result, UCLA will be scoring at will.
As for the Colorado/ASU over, i think i kinda just explained some of my reasoning in regards to the total when discussing the teaser above. ASU will score in the low 50s, and the Buffs will contribute mid to high 20s to the total as well...so this should sail into the 70s, and possibly beyond. (See how the Buffs moved the ball 1st half vs Oregon, before settling on field goals. They had some nice runs/pick ups there.)
Full disclosure, I got a better number on this Oregon St/Wash St total. Jumped it at 60.5, which didn't last long. Took me a while to log on, doing other things today, so i'm using the current 62. Bottom line, it won't even matter. Both these teams are going to put up points. The Beavs pass offense has been excellent...and for the most part, their defense hasn't. Leach will take advantage. Will get into this game more when i play the side...as wazzou needs THIS game to be on track for a bowl...but take the Beavs offense against Colorado 2 weeks ago, and the Cougars offense against Cal last week...and imo, that's what we've got here. Both teams in the low 40s wouldn't surprise me one bit...though I think the improved Wash St defense will keep Oregon St in the mid 30s, tbh.
Lastly, i'm going against the mighty Ducks, and taking Washington. Wanted more cushion, but was worried the line might drop to 13...and didn't want to lose the 2 TDs. Fwiw, my PR #s made Oregon only a 7 pt rd favorite...so there is value, imo.
History says Oregon will roll. Anyone who's watched Oregon play week to week has gotta believe Oregon will roll all the way to the BCS championship game, if they get by Stanford. But don't sleep on a UW team that simply keeps improving under Sark. Even though Stanford was my favorite play last week, in all honestly, they were outplayed and out-hustled by the Huskies. No, the Huskies can't match scores with the Ducks by any means. The offense is solid, but no one's claiming they're explosive enough for that. Instead, they'll methodically put up enough points to keep themselves in the game.
And that will be the case here thanks to the defense. The same defense that had Stanford's offense all fucked up last week. Do not forget about Wilcox, the D coordinator, and the success he had at Boise St...including a couple big games/efforts against Oregon. Yes, it's a different Oregon team...but many of the same principles/etc remain.
Anyhow, will try to get more into this game/matchup later. But for the first time in forever, I think Washington gives Oregon a scare...kinda like how UCLA gave Stanford a scare in the conference champ game last year. Gonna be a tighter than expected, yet beautiful, Pac-12 game!
