so far, so good...a nice 2-0 start heading into saturday. happy, happy, happy.
last 3 additions for the week...
Buffalo(-4) to Florida(-3.5) to ECU(+1.5) for 1 to win 1
Iowa (-1) for 1/2
ASU TT over 34.5 for 1/2
one more teaser, and this one is strictly driven by my PR #s. bottom line, all 3 of these had some solid line value per my #s...didn't want to play each one straight/by itself...so teased the fuckers instead.
Iowa's a straight tail, but only for a half play.
And lastly the ASU/ND game. I mentioned it earlier when responding to a question, and I've fucked with this game all week. Almost laid off, tbh. My eyes tell me ASU rolls ND...my PR #s say this is basically a coin flip...and another part of me says ND will power run on ASU all day. Liked the over, but thought I'd get it at around 56 or so. But being in the mid 60s, the value was taken away. So I settled (or ended up with) the ASU team total going over 34.5 points.
Here's my reasoning. What I feel most certain about is that ASU's speed, Kelly being such a duel threat QB, and ND's weaknesses on defense set up for the Sun Devils to surpass this number fairly comfortably.
ND's front 7 is solid, but I don't think their defense is all that great to be honest. It's good, just not great. And obviously I believe Kelly and the ASU passing game will be able to exploit the Domer's defense for enough points.
The reason it's just a half play is twofold...possible letdown spot for them, as this is their 4th straight "big" game...and with ASU, it's always possible they revert to shooting themselves in the foot, like against Wisky. and i'm not talking about special teams as much as i'm talking about receivers dropping way too many beautifully thrown passes that hit them in stride, directly in the hands. didn't happen against usc, but sure did vs wisky...and historically, albeit under different coaching, this tends to rear it's ugly head too often.
anyhow, that should be it for the week. good luck, guys. :cheers: