CFB Week 6

Yanks27Sox9

Yanks27Sox9

CTG Partner
Went 5-1 in the Pac-12 this past week, but ended up 6-6 overall...dammit...but still up .65 of a unit, so it beats the previous week. Definitely gotta get back on track though...back to how I began the season. Anyhow, as always, will update this 1st post as I make plays during the week.



Thursday 10/3
UCLA (-3.5) for 1
Friday 10/4
Nevada/SDST over 57 for 3/4
Saturday 10/5
Stanford (-6.5) for 1
Virginia Tech (-7) @ -120 for 1
Wash St/Cal under 66 for 3/4
Louisville(-22.5) to Georgia(+1) to Oklahoma(+1) to OkSt(-2.5) for 1 to win 1.05
Oregon 1H (-24) for 1
Buffalo(-4) to Florida(-3.5) to ECU(+1.5) for 1 to win 1
Iowa (-1) for 1/2
ASU TT over 34.5 for 1/2



Week #1: 11-5, +5.835
Week #2: 5-1, +4.450
Week #3: 9-5, +2.675
Week #4: 7-7, -0.075
Week #5: 6-6, +0.650
YTD: 38-24, +13.535

Good luck this weekend!!! :cheers:
 
Last edited:
Yanks27Sox7 said:
UCLA (-3.5) for 1
Stanford (-6.5) for 1
Click to expand...

lines coming out earlier & earlier...

anyhow, these two lines are just about where they should be. made the Bruins a 4 pt road favorite, and made the Cardinal a 7 pt home favorite.
that said, the reason i took them now is because i expect them to get pushed up to 4 & 7 respectively...and most likely a bit beyond that.
when i was making my lines (PR #s) last night, i knew i wanted both of these games. neither is about line value, so i'm good with whatever plays out.
 
went 5-1 in the Pac-12 yesterday, but went 6-6 overall...up .65 of a unit though. fade me outta conference, never in it. ;)

but the only mistake i made...or at least that i'm embarrassed about...was going against stanford with wazzou. really thought they'd be looking ahead to revenge, especially based on some stuff i was hearing outta UW.
but even though the conference has some very solid up-and-comers...like ucla, washington, asu, etc...like i've said in threads before...there's a top tier of Oregon & Stanford, then there's a sizable drop to the next tier.
hindsight's 20-20, and typically i love those situations...it's just that Oregon & Stanford are in a (Pac-12) class by themselves. so that wazzou loss was an embarrassing reminder, is all.


oh and Lane/USC/etc...
you're 3rd tier, buddy. SUCK IT!
 
anyhow, just those two for right now. gonna go get some more sleep, watching football, before our winter ball/little league game today.

updated record, fwiw.

Week #1: 11-5, +5.835
Week #2: 5-1, +4.450
Week #3: 9-5, +2.675
Week #4: 7-7, -0.075
Week #5: 6-6, +0.650
YTD: 38-24, +13.535


:cheers:
 
I would love to hear your thoughts on ASU -6 against Notre Dame- They are in a little bit of a let down spot and having to travel to South Bend but this squad is far superior to the Irish. Line seems a little low to me.
 
blowoutgm said:
I would love to hear your thoughts on ASU -6 against Notre Dame- They are in a little bit of a let down spot and having to travel to South Bend but this squad is far superior to the Irish. Line seems a little low to me.
Click to expand...

not south bend, game is neutral field at cowboys stadium texas
 
blowoutgm said:
I would love to hear your thoughts on ASU -6 against Notre Dame- They are in a little bit of a let down spot and having to travel to South Bend but this squad is far superior to the Irish. Line seems a little low to me.
Click to expand...

tru said:
not south bend, game is neutral field at cowboys stadium texas
Click to expand...


hi, blowout. like tru said, this game is in tejas.
anyhow, i'm not sure yet about this game. my PR #s make ASU only a 2 point favorite on a neutral field. and i'm not sure if this should be treated completely as a neutral field or not, tbh.

that said, my eyeballs tell me something different. the ND offense pretty much sucks...but i think they still will have some success running the ball. (not as much as wisky though...more like the success usc had running, minus a big play or two late lol.)
asu's got more speed, and a way better offense. they torched the trojans, so they will have their fair share of success against the domers on that side of the ball.
asu doesn't have anything of note on deck...but yes, they're off 3 straight tough games...wisky, stanford, and usc. that's gotta take a toll, and gotta set up for somewhat of a letdown. i like the HC, so much of that can be handled i'd like to think.
notre dame's off a stretch of their own too, so may let down a bit. michigan, cupcake, michigan st, oklahoma...some tough games of their own...with a bye in deck, then usc.

if this line would've been a FG or less, i would already be on ASU. i don't think this line will reach/cross 7 pts, so don't see a need to rush any play...considering where's it's been sitting (or fluctuating slightly). gonna spend some time, and try to get a better read...because i obviously thought they set/opened the line a bit high.
furthermore, what all that stuff above is also getting at is that i want to see the total on this game too. this won't come close to the asu/usc total, or the asu/wisky total...but for a Notre Dame game, i think this one could have quite a few points in it's own right.

anyhow, hope that helps a bit. more to come on this matchup, i'm sure.
 
^^ more regarding the ASU/ND matchup in Tejas...
BOL has the o/u at 60 pts. My guess was we'd see roughly a 56, so a bit of "value" is gone from my leaning towards an over in this spot. Still looking at the game though.

btw...it may be weird, but i've always disliked a 5 or a 5.5 line...don't trust it for favs.
 
gawd, i wanna add Oregon -38 lol. it just feels like we already know the score. Oregon will score between 55 and 59 points, while Colorado will score between 10 and 14 points.

anyhow, i do have one addition so far...

Virginia Tech (-7) @ -120 for 1

we're only in week #6, and i don't usually make this type of comparison, but we've already got two like (and recent) opponents here. UNC lost to ECU & GT...one at home, and one on the road...one a close game, and one not so much. conversely, VT has beaten both ECU & GT already...both on the road, and both in close games.
add to the mix that it's VT's homecoming game, their significant HFA in Blacksburg, as well as revenge for the 48 pts UNC threw up on the Hokies LY...and i think we've got a recipe for a nice cover here by the home team.
my PR #s put VT as a 13 pt favorite, so there's line value for me. and let's face it, UNC kinda sucks right now. yeah, VT's offense is very sketchy at times...but that sure is one nasty ass defense right now.

:cheers:
 
well, it took a bit, but i'm finally in the black in the niffel. :thumbsup2:


but back to college...
here are some non-Pac-12 leans...all heavy favs, most with some decent line value imo, and at least a few more likely to be teased then played SU, lol. (i have others, but just listing these fuckers for now.)

Georgia
Florida
Alabama
Cincy
Okie Lite
Oklahoma

and some dogs too...like Ball St, SMU, Miami-Ohio, Rice.
 
Yanks I like that VT game after that win last week. I think BUD will have his D ready for NC bol
 
tres mas...

Wash St/Cal under 66 for 3/4
Nevada/SDST over 57 for 3/4
Louisville(-22.5) to Georgia(+1) to Oklahoma(+1) to OkSt(-2.5) for 1 to win 1.05

i'm sure at first glance, the wazzou/cal game looks like an over...a high scoring affair. obviously, i disagree. despite what stanford was able to do, wazzou actually has an improved defense. (see the usc game.) but yeah, Cal can chuck the ball a bit. you know i like this dykes/goff combo. that said, and part of it's the competition, wazzou is defending the pass pretty well to date. anyhow, i think that continues. and considering both the health and decision making of halliday, i think leach relies heavily on the run...a strength...which has been an issue for Cal...but again, with tOSU and Oregon, it's relative to the competition faced. long story short though, expecting a tight/lower scoring game for the Pac-12, somewhere in the high 40s.

yeah, san diego st looked bad last weekend. but they're back home, where they put up points on the beavers the week prior. conversely, nevada looked a lot better offensively with fajardo back at the helm. problem was that the flyboys ran all over them. bottom line...both teams are very capable of throwing up a lot of points on the other. (of course that's what i said about wku/navy last week, dammit.) but seriously, i can't see either side ending with less than 30 pts. nevada will throw all day on sdst, and sdst will run all day on nevada...so went with the friday night lights over.

lastly, my weekly teaser. what can i say? like all the sides for various reasons, and still might play the UGA spread...even though i think all 4 cover their lines.
 
Yanks I love looking at your record 38-24 great job you can't ask for anything better bol
 
Yanks, gl this week. With you on VT and will be with you on Florida and Okie St if you go those routes.

Right now I have a strong lean (medium play) to Utah, and I really value your opinion, especially as it relates to the Pac 12. Would love to hear more as to why UCLA (a numbers play for me).
 
dilaudid8 said:
Yanks I love looking at your record 38-24 great job you can't ask for anything better bol
Click to expand...

ty, sir. :cheers:
considering the last two weeks though, i definitely expected better.


HookedOnUT1 said:
Yanks, gl this week. With you on VT and will be with you on Florida and Okie St if you go those routes.

Right now I have a strong lean (medium play) to Utah, and I really value your opinion, especially as it relates to the Pac 12. Would love to hear more as to why UCLA (a numbers play for me).
Click to expand...

thanks, bud...appreciate that. :cheers:

gotta leave to the kids baseball practice in a few minutes, so i'll come back. but quick take...

imho, ucla's better in every facet...in every unit.
i'm gonna preface this with the disclaimer that it takes a lot to get me to go against a home team on a thursday night...especially considering the recent history of this matchup, specifically in utah. furthermore, like i said, my PR #s put the line at 4 points.

that said, i was playing ucla this week at a TD or less...regardless...but would've considered anything up to 9.5 pts.
utah's offense is improving, no doubt. the oregon st game showed it. the passing game still needs work, but the running game was solid.
however, ucla's defense is much improved too. see what they limited nebraska too, ground and air...and tbh, that's exactly what i believe they limit utah too in this game. (the offenses aren't all that different in the grand scheme of things...though i do realize there are differences.) but in other words, utah won't have anywhere near the success running the ball that they enjoyed vs the beavers. instead, it'll look more like the 128 the bruins allowed nebraska...or the 129 byu allowed utah. somewhere between 3.0 & 3.5 yards per carry. and considering that utah won't be throwing it all night, that's no where near enough production to keep up with the bruins.

now the other part of the matchup. utah's got defensive issues. and this is by far the best offense they'll have faced to date. the bruins should be able to move the ball even better than the beavers did. maybe not quite as many points, but more sustainable drives (with a better mix)...but obviously a good deal thru the air...again, a la the beavers.

both teams off a bye, so all rested. and utah has an ass-raping to look forward to in a week. but bottom line...i think due to the 2 byes already, as well as some of the competition faced...UCLA's just not getting enough respect yet. case in point...fajardo only threw for 164 against the bruin secondary, and martinez only had 203. not cream of the crop, per se...but neither is the ute's QB. and those games had the bruins out in front by a lot at the end, so the oportunity for inflated passing numbers were there.

anyhow, sry if i jumped aorund. i'm just rushing to get out...
but hope that helps for now. might be close for a half, but ucla rolls.
 
HookedOnUT1 said:
Thanks for the thoughts yanks, it is very helpful ad much appreciated.
Click to expand...

:shake:

anything can happen on a thurs nite. just see about 130 rushing, and say 230 to 240 passing for the utes. unless there are a couple turnovers, with short fields, i don't think it'll be anywhere near enough production to hang with ucla...who i fully expect to reach the 40s.
 
another addition...

Oregon 1H (-24) for 1

here's why i love this, and prefer it to the side at 39 pts. halftime score vs cal was 41-3...halftime score vs tenny was 38-7...and last year's matchup with colorado had a 56-0 halftime score. (35-0 in colorado in 2011, as well.)
yes, other than the '11 game i mentioned, all those were home games for oregon. but those are also better teams than colorado as well.
yes, the ducks one rd game vs UVA was only 28-10 at the half...but that was an early start on the east coast. even the beavs led colorado 17-3 at the half the other week, and oregon should easily double that margin...easily.
but the bottom line is that i don't trust the 4th quarter backdoor. colorado had a nice 4th Q vs the beavs to get me that over. cal got their points vs oregon in the 4th quarter. so that's the main reason for the first half...avoid those 14 bullshit points late in a game that could screw up such a high spread/dominating effort.

we all know oregon's gonna get their points. and they've been barnstorming teams early, then cruising the rest of the way. but possibly lost in all this is how dominating the duck's defense has been...at least for 3 quarters. cal & tenny didn't have a prayer. so if the buffs can only score 3 in a half vs the beavs...now at home, are they really gonna have much more success against a defense twice as good? don't think so. gonna get boat raced early, just like those before them.
 
take this fwiw, but that was the worst half of football i've seen to date from the bruin's defense. shitty tackling, resulting in basically two big plays...but uglier than that, overall.

the bruin offense looks ok, but i'm hoping the first half was simply shaking the cobwebs off a bit...cuz that wasn't very good football, considering everything.

minus the 1 big run, with 2 easy tackles missed, the utes offense is all passing. didn't see that coming...that level of success...and didn't have the utes scoring this much in the half.

so play the 2nd half accordingly. either ucla gets the rust off, and comes out in the 2nd like they did in nebraska...or they allow the utes to trade scores with them, and the line then becomes a fuckin coin flip.

disgusted, tbh...cuz if this was a better opponent, ucla would be getting their asses kicked tonight.
 
i got a favorable, early line...so i'm just riding this ucla game out. hoping for the bruins to show up in the 2nd. (all i need is them to 'tie' the 2nd half.)

but if i wanted action, they'll definitely put up more than 17 in the upcoming half.
 
well, i guess a road win is a road win...but i'm sorry, guys...ucla didn't play very well, overall. tbh, it almost feels like a loss...even though they held the utes to 99 on the ground, and 288 in the air (more than expected). think i predicted 130 & 240, so about the same total yardage.

calls & penalties (& mistakes) went against them, but all those turnovers bailed them out. linebackers came up huge, helping the young secondary out.

it took almost until Hundley's last TD run for them to finally adjust to and handle the pressure utah was dialing up. poor coaching on that end, and some bad execution. so didn't get to the offensive # i was expecting (mid 40s).

bottom line...the utes played with energy, and played over the heads...while ucla was flat early on defense, then flat for much of the 2nd half on offense, and pretty much played (down) to the level of their competition throughout.
as a result, the bruins were very fortunate to walk outta there with a win. big games coming up though. stanford and oregon will boat-race them...but if they come out remotely like they did tonight, then that arizona/washington/arizona st stretch of games will be deadly.

anyhow, lots to be embarrassed about tonight...but like i said, on the positive side, a win is a win. the offense had a good half, then the defense had a good half...but fuck me if that wasn't a step backwards in some regards.
 
lol burna

don't sell yourself short yanks...Utah did not deserve to win with 5 tunrovers..UCLA made big plays when it had to.
 
HUNT said:
lol burna

don't sell yourself short yanks...Utah did not deserve to win with 5 tunrovers..UCLA made big plays when it had to.
Click to expand...

not selling myself short. as a bruin fan, i'm selling ucla short tonight. disappointed by much of what i watched.
but yes, in the end, they did.
 
He's awesome...like seriously. Barr is unreal too...this team goin places.

PAC 12 is legit.

Tough place to play and win..good win for bruins.
 
Yanks27Sox7 said:
well, i guess a road win is a road win...but i'm sorry, guys...ucla didn't play very well, overall. tbh, it almost feels like a loss...even though they held the utes to 99 on the ground, and 288 in the air (more than expected). think i predicted 130 & 240, so about the same total yardage.

calls & penalties (& mistakes) went against them, but all those turnovers bailed them out. linebackers came up huge, helping the young secondary out.

it took almost until Hundley's last TD run for them to finally adjust to and handle the pressure utah was dialing up. poor coaching on that end, and some bad execution. so didn't get to the offensive # i was expecting (mid 40s).

bottom line...the utes played with energy, and played over the heads...while ucla was flat early on defense, then flat for much of the 2nd half on offense, and pretty much played (down) to the level of their competition throughout.
as a result, the bruins were very fortunate to walk outta there with a win. big games coming up though. stanford and oregon will boat-race them...but if they come out remotely like they did tonight, then that arizona/washington/arizona st stretch of games will be deadly.

anyhow, lots to be embarrassed about tonight...but like i said, on the positive side, a win is a win. the offense had a good half, then the defense had a good half...but fuck me if that wasn't a step backwards in some regards.
Click to expand...

whoa now yanks. Let's step off the ledge lol

Defense gave up 3 points after the first quarter. Just lights out after the first quarter.

Offense had issues mainly brendel screwing up every other snap. But def an ugly ugly game.

But it still put up 34 on the road and we're disgusted by the offensive performance. It's pretty telling.

Also we are going to beat furd. count it :)
 
HUNT said:
As an (observer) I'm impressed with them. Jack is a fuckin monster.
Click to expand...

understand. and yeah, they have a few very young studs...so it'll improve.


sportjunky said:
Jack turned 18 a month ago. Kid is ridiculous
Click to expand...

i know...it's hard to keep the youth in perspective sometimes.


HUNT said:
He's awesome...like seriously. Barr is unreal too...this team goin places.

PAC 12 is legit.

Tough place to play and win..good win for bruins.
Click to expand...

definitely at the top.


sportjunky said:
whoa now yanks. Let's step off the ledge lol

Defense gave up 3 points after the first quarter. Just lights out after the first quarter.

Offense had issues mainly brendel screwing up every other snap. But def an ugly ugly game.

But it still put up 34 on the road and we're disgusted by the offensive performance. It's pretty telling.

Also we are going to beat furd. count it :)
Click to expand...


lol, not on a ledge...but fuck yeah, i'm disappointed. maybe allowed myself to get too high on them, after spending the pre-season tempering my hopes/thoughts.
tough place to play, but utah's bottom 3rd (or tier) of the conference imo.

and yep, i said the defense played a good 2nd half...and the offense a good first half. but you're right, it is telling. we've got a ways to go...but considering where we've come from, it is pretty telling.
 
What up buddy! Just wanted to say fantastic job so far this year! Keep up the good work bro, and BOL as always!
 
Aztec4Life said:
What up buddy! Just wanted to say fantastic job so far this year! Keep up the good work bro, and BOL as always!
Click to expand...

how've you been, bro? good to see you around still. and thank you. :shake:

had to sell the company i ran, so a helluva lot more time for capping games. ;)

still living down in MV area? remember it was somewhere close to my mom's place. anyhow, hope everything's well with you & yours, aztec.
 
Yanks27Sox7 said:
how've you been, bro? good to see you around still. and thank you. :shake:

had to sell the company i ran, so a helluva lot more time for capping games. ;)

still living down in MV area? remember it was somewhere close to my mom's place. anyhow, hope everything's well with you & yours, aztec.
Click to expand...

I've been good bro. Just swamped with work. I've got my full time (40-45 hours per week) day job, and I started my own business four months ago with two friends. So, most of my free time is spent at the business during the evenings.

I hope you got some good $$$ when you sold your business bro. I'm living in Santa Ana now...just so much cheaper than MV. The downside, of course, is that it's ghetto here, but oh well.

Thanks for the kind words bro! Let's get that money this week!
 
i know i know..salty utah didnt cover as well..just change ur name and were good..good luck tho
 
The Bruins did enough in a hostile environment & weird spot of a bye. :shake: I think this squad has enormous upside potential, because you're going to see Utah kick alotta ass & so will Nebby. Mora has just assembled some all world talent, great coaches & created a winning environment. Mora reminds me of Carroll in that aspect, mediocre at best in the NFL in their 1st stints & program changing in CFB.
 
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